Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Honglu Steel Structure (002541) for the first time [5] Core Views - Honglu Steel Structure is a leading player in the steel structure manufacturing industry, with a strong cost advantage and deep ties to core customers, leading to sustained growth in new orders [3] - The company has accelerated its intelligent transformation since 2022, focusing on upgrading cutting and welding processes, which has temporarily reduced production and increased depreciation/R&D expenses but is expected to enhance its competitive edge in the long term [3] - The steel structure industry faces short-term demand pressure due to industrial production and local fiscal challenges, but the long-term growth prospects for prefabricated buildings remain strong [3][9] Company Overview - Honglu Steel Structure is the largest steel structure manufacturer in China, with a leading production capacity and significant scale advantages [7] - The company has gone through three development phases: rapid expansion of engineering business (2002-2014), refocus on manufacturing (2015-2021), and intelligent transformation (2022-present) [7] - In 2023, the company's steel structure production reached 4.49 million tons, ranking first in the industry [7] Industry Dynamics - The penetration rate of prefabricated buildings in China increased from 4.9% in 2016 to 26.5% in 2022, with steel structure production growing at a CAGR of 12% from 2014 to 2023 [7] - The steel structure industry is highly fragmented, with the top 5 companies accounting for 8.2% of the market share in 2023, up from 4.9% in 2015 [7] - Honglu Steel Structure's market share increased from 3% in 2015 to 4% in 2023, reflecting its leading position in the industry [7] Competitive Advantages - The company's large-scale production capacity and strong bargaining power with suppliers allow it to purchase steel at lower prices than competitors [7] - Honglu Steel Structure has implemented a flat and refined management model, reducing per-ton expenses and depreciation costs [7] - The company's intelligent transformation, particularly in cutting and welding processes, is expected to further strengthen its cost advantages [7] Financial Projections - The report forecasts that the company's revenue will reach 22.8 billion, 25.2 billion, and 27.9 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -3%, +10%, and +11% [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.0 billion, 1.1 billion, and 1.3 billion yuan for the same periods, with year-on-year growth rates of -14%, +12%, and +11% [7] - The company's EPS is projected to be 1.48, 1.65, and 1.82 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a 3-year CAGR of +2% [7] Valuation and Target Price - The report values the company at 10 times the 2025 PE, with a target price of 16.48 yuan [11] - The current price of 14.13 yuan implies a 2025 PE of 8.6 times, indicating undervaluation [5][11]

订单整体平稳，期待智能制造兑现 ——鸿路钢构动态跟踪报告 核心观点 ⚫ 事件：鸿路钢构发布 2024 前三季度经营数据情况，公司累计新签销售合同额人民币 约 219.3 亿元，较 2023 年同期减少 4.3%；其中单 Q3 为 75.7 亿元。钢结构产品产 量约 325.1 万吨，较 2023 年同期增长 0.58%，其中单 Q3 产品产量约 114.5 万吨。 ⚫ 钢材价格下降影响合同额，实际接单量或有上升。24Q1-Q3 公司订单合同额同比下 滑 4%，或因钢价同比下滑所致，由于钢结构商业模式，成本下降会导致产品售价的 下调。根据万得数据，24Q1-Q3， 我国工字钢平均价格为 3966 元/吨，同比下降 7%，若剔除价格因素，我们认为公司接单量整体可能仍然实现增长。此外，在公司 进行产线智能化改造过程中，或许一定程度上也影响了生产效率，在这一背景下公 司钢结构产量仍然小幅增长。 ⚫ 智能制造提升核心竞争力，研发费用影响当期利润。公司已专门成立了智能制造研 发团队，有力推进了平面激光切割机、坡口激光切割机等设备应用。目前主要专注 于将每个环节的管控得到进一步的优化，炼好内功，增强公司的核心竞争力。未来 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 20.85 CNY based on a 15X PE for 2024 [2][5]. Core Views - The company signed new sales contracts totaling approximately 21.93 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 4.3% compared to the same period in 2023, with Q3 contracts amounting to 7.57 billion CNY [1]. - The production of steel structure products reached approximately 3.251 million tons, a slight increase of 0.58% year-on-year, with Q3 production at about 1.145 million tons [1]. - The decline in steel prices has impacted contract amounts, but actual order volumes may have increased. The average price of I-beams in China fell by 7% year-on-year to 3966 CNY/ton in Q1-Q3 2024, suggesting that excluding price factors, order volumes could still show growth [1]. - The company is focusing on smart manufacturing to enhance its core competitiveness, with R&D expenses rising to 330 million CNY, a 62.5% increase year-on-year, impacting net profit margins [1]. Financial Summary - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is 960 million, 1.038 billion, and 1.129 billion CNY respectively, down from previous estimates of 1.6 billion and 1.8 billion CNY for 2024-2025 [2][5]. - Revenue for 2024 is expected to be 21.789 billion CNY, a decrease of 7.4% year-on-year, with a projected revenue of 23.477 billion CNY in 2025 and 24.345 billion CNY in 2026 [4]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 is 10.7%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin is projected to decline to 4.4% in 2024 [1][4].

| 证券代码：002541 | 证券简称：鸿路钢构 | 公告编号：2024-066 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：128134 | 债券简称：鸿路转债 | | 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、获取补助的基本情况 近日，安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司全资子公司获得政府补助基本情况 见下表： | | | | | | 补 | | | 是否与 | 是否 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序 | 获得补助 | 发放 | 项目 | 获得补助依据 | 助 | 补助金额 | 补助到账时 | 日常经 | 有可 | | 号 | 主体 | 主体 | 名称 | | 形 | （万元） | 间 | 营活动 | 持续 | | | | | | | 式 | | | 相关 | 性 | | 1 | 安徽鸿阳建 筑科技有限 | | | 《鸿路智能装配 基地项目投资合 | | 1032.52 | | | | | | 公司 | 安徽涡 | 产业 | 作协议 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company experienced a slight decline in new orders and production due to seasonal disruptions and ongoing smart transformation initiatives. However, the order intake is expected to show significant growth in the upcoming quarter [2]. - The average price of large orders has decreased, reflecting the overall decline in steel prices, but the company is positioned for long-term competitiveness through its technological advancements [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Orders and Production - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company signed new orders worth 21.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4%. In Q3 2024, new orders amounted to 7.6 billion yuan, also down 4% year-on-year [1]. - The steel structure product output for the first three quarters of 2024 was approximately 3.25 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%. In Q3 2024, production was about 1.14 million tons, up 1% year-on-year but down 4% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. Price and Order Volume Analysis - Excluding the impact of steel price fluctuations, the order intake in Q3 2024 is expected to show a double-digit growth both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. The average price of hot-rolled steel decreased by 15% year-on-year in Q3 2024 [2]. - The proportion of large orders slightly decreased to about 20% in Q3 2024, with an average price of approximately 5,045 yuan per ton, down 13% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.24 billion yuan, 1.30 billion yuan, and 1.65 billion yuan, respectively. The current price corresponds to a dynamic P/E ratio of 8x for 2024 [2][11]. - Revenue projections for the years 2024 to 2026 are 24.5 billion yuan, 26.2 billion yuan, and 29.3 billion yuan, with growth rates of 4.08%, 6.91%, and 12.00% respectively [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][17]. Core Views - The company has shown resilience in its operations despite a decline in new orders, with a focus on the potential turnaround in the steel structure sector [1]. - The report highlights the impact of government fiscal stimulus and monetary policy adjustments on infrastructure investment, which is expected to benefit the company [4]. - The company is undergoing a transformation towards automation and smart manufacturing, which is anticipated to enhance efficiency and potentially increase valuation in the long term [3]. Summary by Sections Orders and Production - Cumulative new orders for Q1-3 2024 reached approximately 21.926 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.34%, with Q3 alone accounting for 7.57 billion, down 3.74% year-on-year [1]. - Steel structure production for Q1-3 2024 was about 3.2507 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.58%, with Q3 production at 1.1449 million tons, up 1.43% from Q3 2023 [1]. Pricing and Contracts - The average price per ton for new material orders in Q3 2024 ranged from 4,436 to 6,024 yuan, a decrease of 13.22% compared to the range of 4,909.98 to 7,143.76 yuan in Q3 2023 [2]. - The company secured 20 large contracts in Q3 2024, including a significant project in Indonesia, indicating ongoing demand in the manufacturing sector [2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 23.539 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected revenue of 22.855 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a decline of 2.91% [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is expected to be 912.44 million yuan, down 22.63% from 2023 [5]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the company will achieve net profits of 9.1 billion, 10.5 billion, and 12.2 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.5, 9.1, and 7.9 [4]. - The company is expected to benefit from increased infrastructure investment driven by government policies, particularly in the fourth quarter [4].

| 证券代码：002541 | 证券简称：鸿路钢构 | 公告编号：2024-065 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：128134 | 债券简称：鸿路转债 | | 安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司 关于公司 2024 年前三季度经营情况简报 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、公司 2024 年前三季度销售合同情况 安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）2024 年前三季度 累计新签销售合同额人民币约 219.26 亿元，较 2023 年同期减少 4.34%。其中材料 订单为 217.99 亿元，工程订单 1.27 亿元。2024 年第三季度新签销售合同额人民币 约 75.70 亿元，其中合同金额达到 1 亿元人民币以上或钢结构加工量 10000 吨以上 的订单情况如下： | 项 目 名 称 | 合同金额 | 加工量（吨） | 合同类型 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （亿元） | | | | | 广州***现代高端装备研发生产基地项目 | 0.67 ...

| 证券代码：002541 | | | | | 证券简称：鸿路钢构 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：128134 | | | | | 债券简称：鸿路转债 | | | | | | | 转股价格：人民币 | | 32.44 | | 元/股 | | | | | | | | 转股期限：2021 | 年 | 4 月 | 15 | 日至 | 2026 | 年 | 10 | 月 | 8 | 日 | 根据《深圳证券交易所股票上市规则》、《深圳证券交易所可转换公司债券 业务实施细则》的有关规定，安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司（以下简称 "公司"）现将 2024 年第三季度可转换公司债券转股及公司股本变动的情况公 告如下： 一、可转债上市发行概况 （一）可转债发行情况 | 证券代码：002541 | 证券简称：鸿路钢构 | 公告编号：2024-063 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：128134 | 债券简称：鸿路转债 | | 安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公 ...

| | | 安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司 关于预计触发鸿路转债转股价格向下修正条件的 提示性公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 5、自 2024 年 9 月 18 日起至 2024 年 10 月 8 日，公司股票已有 10 个交易日的收 盘价格低于当期转股价格的 85%。若后续公司股票收盘价格继续低于当期转股价 格的 85%，预计将有可能触发转股价格向下修正条件。 一、可转换公司债券发行上市概况 1、可转换公司债券发行情况 经中国证券监督管理委员会"证监许可[2020]1983 号"文核准，安徽鸿路 钢结构（集团）股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2020 年 10 月 9 日公开发 行了 1,880 万张可转换公司转债，每张面值为人民币 100 元，发行总额 18.80 亿元，期限六年。 2、可转换公司债券上市情况 经深圳证券交易所"深证上[2020]971号"文同意，公司本次公开发行的可 转换公司债券于2020年11月2日在深圳证券交易所挂牌交易，债券简称"鸿路转 1、证券代码：002541 证券简称：鸿路钢构 2、债 ...

| 证券代码:002541 | 证券简称:鸿路钢构 | 公告编号:2024-062 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码:128134 | 债券简称:鸿路转债 | | 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、获取补助的基本情况 近日，安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司全资子公司获得政府补助基本情 况见下表： | | | | 项目 | | 补助 | 补助 | | 是否与 | 是否 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序 | 获得补 | 发 放 | 名称 | 获得补助依据 | 形式 | 金额 | 补助到账时间 | 日常经 | 有可 | | 号 | 助主体 | 主体 | | | | （万元） | | 营活动 | 持续 | | | | | | | | | | 相关 | 性 | | | | | | | | | 截止 2023 年 | | | | | | | | 《绿色装配式建 | | | 12 月 31 日，累 | | | | | | | | ...