Investment Rating - The investment rating for the airline transportation industry is "Positive" [2]. Core Viewpoints - The industry has maintained a high passenger load factor since the beginning of 2025, with domestic flight capacity growth being low while international routes are seeing increased capacity. The supply remains tight with a net fleet growth rate of less than 3% [14]. - The passenger load factor has improved compared to both the previous year and the same period in 2019, particularly in domestic routes. Domestic flight turnover has shown steady growth, while international turnover has significantly recovered to levels close to those of 2019 [14]. - Although ticket prices have shown a weak performance due to increased capacity in the second quarter, there is an expectation for price recovery during the summer travel peak season as demand gradually increases [3][14]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on airlines such as Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines due to the anticipated recovery in ticket prices driven by improved supply-demand dynamics during the summer peak season [3][14]. Industry Capacity and Ticket Prices - The industry has seen a continuous high passenger load factor, with the flight cancellation rate decreasing as the travel peak season approaches. In May 2025, the industry’s Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) and Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) increased by 8.0% and 11.5% year-on-year, respectively, with a passenger load factor of 84.6%, up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [4][16]. - Ticket prices in the second quarter have shown a narrowing decline compared to the previous quarter, with an average ticket price of 848 RMB, down 9.2% year-on-year. The average ticket price in early July was down 7.9% year-on-year [5][27]. Fuel Prices and Exchange Rates - The average price of aviation fuel has decreased significantly, with a year-on-year decline of 12.8% in July. The average aviation kerosene price in the first and second quarters was down 10.0% and 17.0% year-on-year, respectively [6][39]. - The exchange rate has remained stable, with the USD to RMB exchange rate at 7.1526 as of July 16, 2025, a decrease of 0.50% from the end of 2024 [6][39]. Operational Performance of Airlines - In the first half of 2025, domestic airlines have shown low growth in capacity, with the exception of a few airlines. The passenger load factor for major airlines has increased year-on-year, with significant improvements noted in domestic routes [8][46]. - In June 2025, the overall ASK growth for major airlines was led by Spring Airlines at 12.4%, while the international routes have shown recovery rates close to 2019 levels for some airlines [46][49].

Group 1 - The company approved a guarantee limit of up to RMB 1.7 billion for its wholly-owned subsidiary to support various operational needs, including aircraft acquisition and daily operations [1] - The guarantee for the subsidiary, Huaxia Aircraft Maintenance Engineering Co., Ltd., is set at RMB 500 million, and the guarantee limit can be reused until the next annual general meeting [1] - The company signed a maximum guarantee contract with Guangfa Bank Chongqing Branch, providing a guarantee of RMB 20 million for the subsidiary's credit agreement [2][3] Group 2 - As of the announcement date, the total guarantee balance for the subsidiary is RMB 228.42 million, with an available guarantee limit of RMB 480 million [2] - The company has cumulative external guarantees amounting to RMB 682.56 million, with no overdue guarantees or guarantees involved in litigation [5][6] - The guarantee contract includes provisions for joint liability and specifies the duration of the guarantee as three years from the debt fulfillment deadline [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the aviation industry is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [7]. Core Insights - The civil aviation passenger transport volume continued to grow steadily in June, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, reaching approximately 60.9 million passengers. Capacity saw a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year [4]. - The average aircraft utilization rate in June was 7.8 hours per day, showing a month-on-month decrease of 1% but remained stable year-on-year [4]. - Major airlines reported growth in capacity and passenger turnover, with notable increases from Spring Airlines (+12%) and China Eastern Airlines (+10%) in passenger turnover compared to the previous year [4]. - The international market is recovering, with June international flight numbers reaching 55,000, recovering to 87.1% of the same period in 2019 [4]. - The report highlights a structural differentiation in recovery across regions, with demand expected to accelerate as the summer travel season begins [4]. Summary by Sections Passenger Transport Data - In June, the total passenger transport volume was approximately 60.9 million, a 3.8% increase year-on-year. Domestic market capacity increased by 0.3%, while international flights reached 55,000, recovering to 87.1% of 2019 levels [4][5]. - Airlines' passenger turnover (RPK) showed growth, with China Eastern Airlines at +10% and Spring Airlines at +12% year-on-year [4]. Airline Performance - The report provides a summary of key airline metrics for June, including ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) and RPK, with China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines showing significant growth [5]. - The passenger load factor for June was highest for Spring Airlines at 92.1%, while China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines also reported strong load factors [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends continued investment in the aviation sector, highlighting the strong supply logic and demand elasticity, with specific recommendations for China National Aviation, China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and others [4][7].

证券代码：002928 证券简称：华夏航空 公告编号：2025-034 上述担保事项在公司董事会及股东大会审议通过的对外担保额度范围内，担 保程序符合《上市公司监管指引第 8 号——上市公司资金往来、对外担保的监管 要求》《深圳证券交易所股票上市规则》及其他有关监管法规的要求。本次担保 对象为公司的全资子公司，财务状况和偿债能力较好；公司为其提供担保，有利 于促进全资子公司业务发展，提高其经济效益和盈利能力。 华夏航空股份有限公司 关于为全资子公司提供担保的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、担保额度审批情况概述 华夏航空股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）分别于 2025 年 04 月 24 日召开 第三届董事会第十七次会议、第三届监事会第十六次会议，于 2025 年 05 月 16 日召开 2024 年年度股东大会，审议通过《关于为全资子公司提供担保的议案》， 同意公司为全资子公司向银行或其他金融机构申请授信不超过人民币 17 亿元或 等值外币提供担保，主要用于子公司引进飞机、飞机预付款、项目建设、购买航 材、设备采购、日常运营等事项 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the aviation industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant improvement in the performance of major airlines in Q2, driven by resilient domestic demand and ongoing recovery in international routes [7]. - The report emphasizes the constraints on supply and the reduction in oil prices, which are expected to alleviate cost pressures for airlines [7]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for specific airlines, particularly Huaxia Airlines and Spring Airlines, due to their competitive advantages in the domestic market [7]. Summary by Sections Airline Data Analysis - In June, the overall ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) growth rates were led by Spring Airlines (12.4%), followed by Eastern Airlines (6.5%) and Southern Airlines (4.6%) [1]. - For the first half of the year, cumulative ASK growth was highest for Spring Airlines (9.5%) and Eastern Airlines (7.5%) [1]. - In June, the RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) growth rates were also led by Spring Airlines (11.6%) and Eastern Airlines (10.0%) [1]. - Cumulatively, Eastern Airlines had the highest RPK growth in the first half of the year at 12.2% [1]. Domestic and International Routes - Domestic route performance in June showed Spring Airlines leading with an ASK growth of 10.5%, while international routes saw significant growth from 吉祥航空 (46.9%) [2][3]. - Cumulatively, for the first half of the year, 吉祥航空 had the highest ASK growth in international routes at 65.6% [2]. Passenger Load Factor - In June, the passenger load factor was highest for Spring Airlines at 92.1%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.6 percentage points [3]. - For the first half of the year, Spring Airlines maintained the highest load factor at 90.5%, despite a year-on-year decrease of 0.8 percentage points [3]. Fleet Growth - As of June 2025, the total fleet of the five listed airlines increased by 5 aircraft, with a year-on-year growth of 3.3% [3][19]. Financial Performance Forecast - The report forecasts significant improvements in the financial performance of major airlines for the first half of 2025, with Huaxia Airlines expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 2.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 875% [7][9]. - In contrast, the three major airlines (Air China, Eastern Airlines, and Southern Airlines) are expected to report losses, but with reduced loss margins compared to the previous year [7][10].

Investment Rating - The aviation industry is rated as "Overweight" [5] Core Views - The industry is expected to maintain a low supply growth rate, which could improve the supply-demand relationship and enhance airline profitability if demand recovers [1][4] - Despite weak ticket prices recently, the high passenger load factor indicates potential for revenue management improvements [1][4] - The report recommends continuous monitoring of peak season ticket prices and passenger load factors, with a positive outlook for major airlines [1][4] Summary by Sections Passenger Load Factor Performance - In June, the three major airlines maintained a high passenger load factor of 84.1%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Spring Airlines experienced a slight decline in load factor to 92.1%, while Juneyao Airlines showed improvement with a load factor of 86.7% [3] Revenue and Profitability Outlook - The three major airlines forecasted a narrowing of net losses for Q2 2025, with Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern expected to report net losses of 0.94 billion, 4.05 billion, and 8.00 billion respectively, reflecting a year-on-year reduction of 78.0% [4] - The improvement in profitability is attributed to better revenue levels, with domestic ticket prices showing a smaller decline compared to previous quarters [4] Stock Recommendations - The report highlights several stocks with a "Buy" rating, including Air China (753 HK), China Eastern Airlines (670 HK), China Southern Airlines (1055 HK), and Spring Airlines (601021 CH) [8][21] - Target prices for these stocks are set at 6.90 HKD for Air China, 3.20 HKD for China Eastern, and 5.00 HKD for China Southern, among others [8][21]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the civil aviation industry in China, focusing on passenger transport and airline performance in 2025 [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Passenger Transport Growth**: In Q2 2025, China's civil aviation passenger transport volume is expected to reach approximately 186 million, representing a 15% increase compared to 2019 and a 7% increase compared to 2024 [1]. 2. **Flight Volume Increase**: The overall flight volume is projected to grow by 4.4% year-on-year compared to 2024 and by 5.96% compared to 2019 [1]. 3. **Ticket Pricing Trends**: Average ticket prices from February to June 2025 are slightly lower than those in 2019 and 2020, with oil-inclusive ticket prices remaining stable compared to 2024 [2]. 4. **Profitability Outlook for Airlines**: Major airlines like Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines are expected to significantly reduce losses in Q2 2025, nearing breakeven [3]. 5. **Spring Airlines Performance**: Spring Airlines is projected to maintain its scale economy profit between 550 million to 580 million, which is stable or slightly increased compared to the previous year [3]. 6. **Demand and Capacity**: The demand in the aviation sector remains strong, with a reported 375,600 passenger flights from April 1 to July 12, 2025, marking a 3.3% increase year-on-year [4]. 7. **Price Adjustments and Competition**: The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) is addressing "involution" in competition, which may positively impact ticket prices as the peak travel season approaches [5]. 8. **Eastern Airlines Ranking Adjustment**: The ranking of China Eastern Airlines has been adjusted to a higher position among the three major airlines due to its significant capacity growth [6]. 9. **Hua Xia Airlines Stock Performance**: Hua Xia Airlines has seen a stock price increase of 11.08% since 2005, attributed to expected significant improvements in performance in 2025 [7]. 10. **Operational Efficiency**: The airline's operational metrics, including passenger turnover, have shown substantial growth, with a 33.21% increase in available seat kilometers compared to 2024 [8]. 11. **Subsidy Impact**: The revision of the regional airline subsidy management policy has positively influenced the airline's profitability, with other income reaching 1.293 billion in 2024 [8][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Cost Management**: Airlines are focusing on cost control, which may enhance profitability despite fluctuations in toll revenue and operational challenges [12][13]. - **Market Dynamics**: The overall market dynamics indicate a potential for improved profitability in the airline sector, driven by demand recovery and strategic adjustments in pricing and capacity [5][6][7]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The call suggests monitoring specific airlines and infrastructure companies for potential investment opportunities, particularly those with strong cash flow and dividend capabilities [21][24]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed during the conference call, highlighting the civil aviation industry's current state and future outlook.

Core Viewpoint - The company is reaffirmed with a "Buy" rating and a target price of 12.55 yuan, corresponding to a 22x PE for 2025, indicating strong growth potential in the regional aviation market [1] Short-term Outlook - The fleet is expected to expand to 75 aircraft by the end of 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.3% from 2019 to 2024 [2] - The number of captains is improving, reaching 300 by the end of 2024, with the ratio of captains per aircraft recovering to 82% of 2019 levels [2] - Enhanced fleet turnover efficiency is anticipated to drive significant profit growth in 2025 and 2026, alongside government subsidies and improved revenue levels [2] Mid-term Outlook - The new government subsidy policy for regional airlines is expected to significantly increase unit hour subsidies, benefiting the company's profitability [2] - Other revenues are projected to reach 1.29 billion yuan and 360 million yuan in Q1 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 144.8% and 47.8% [2] - The company is expected to benefit from favorable trends in oil prices and exchange rates, leading to a continued recovery in single aircraft profitability [2] Long-term Outlook - The company has established a strong position in the challenging regional aviation market, with 84% of its routes being independent flights by 2024 [3] - The company holds a 21% market share in the regional market for cities below the third tier, leading the industry [3] - The demand for regional air travel is expected to grow, supported by local government initiatives to enhance regional connectivity and the construction of new airports [3] Market Perspective - The market underestimates the barriers to entry in the regional aviation sector and overestimates potential competition from traditional airlines [4] - The regional aviation market remains a blue ocean, with 185 regional airports handling fewer than 2 million passengers, indicating significant untapped demand [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted to 729 million, 1.141 billion, and 1.342 billion yuan, respectively, with a CAGR of 71.1% [5] - The target price has been raised to 12.55 yuan, based on a revised average PE multiple of 22x for comparable companies [5]

Core Viewpoint - The opening of the direct flight route from Chongqing to Balikun marks a significant development in the aviation sector, enhancing connectivity and promoting regional economic collaboration in Xinjiang [1][3]. Group 1: Flight Route Details - The new route is operated by an Airbus A320, with a one-way flight time of approximately 3 hours [3]. - Initially, flights are scheduled for July 15 and 17, with regular operations starting from July 29, flying every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday [3]. - Departure from Chongqing is at 06:40, arriving in Balikun at 09:55, while the return flight departs Balikun at 10:40 and arrives in Chongqing at 13:50 [3]. Group 2: Economic and Cultural Impact - The new route significantly shortens the travel distance between Chongqing and Balikun, providing efficient travel options and facilitating economic collaboration between the eastern and western regions of Xinjiang [3]. - The flight service supports the "tourism revitalization" strategy in Xinjiang, promoting local tourism by showcasing Balikun's unique cultural and natural attractions [3][6]. - The airline aims to contribute to the development of a "trillion-level cultural tourism and sports industry cluster" in Xinjiang through an "aviation + tourism" model [3][6]. Group 3: Broader Aviation Network Development - 华夏航空 has opened multiple routes within Xinjiang, including Alatai, Korla, Aksu, and Kashgar, and has increased flight frequencies from Chongqing [6]. - The airline's efforts enhance the aviation logistics network, facilitating the export of local energy and agricultural products [6]. - The airline promotes the use of domestically produced aircraft, such as the ARJ21, supporting the growth of the domestic aviation industry [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Huaxia Airlines, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][19]. Core Views - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 2.55 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 875% [1]. - The report emphasizes the continuous improvement in the company's operations, driven by a decrease in oil prices, which is expected to reduce costs and sustain profitability [2]. - The target price for the stock is set at 11.3 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 31% from the current price of 8.65 yuan [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the expected total revenue is 8.112 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.1% [3]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 717 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 167.6% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.56 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 15 times [3]. Operational Data Summary - In the first half of 2025, Huaxia Airlines is expected to operate an average of 382 flights per day, a year-on-year increase of 19.9% [8]. - The average aircraft utilization rate improved to 7 hours per day, an increase of 0.6 hours compared to the previous year [8]. - The company has been actively optimizing its route network to meet the changing travel demands, which has contributed to an increase in passenger load factors [8].