证券代码：002928 证券简称：华夏航空 公告编号：2026-006 华夏航空股份有限公司 2025 年度业绩预告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误 导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、本期业绩预计情况 1、业绩预告期间：2025 年 1 月 1 日至 2025 年 12 月 31 日。 2、业绩预告情况：预计净利润为正值且属于同向上升 50%以上情形 （1）以区间数进行业绩预告的 单位：万元 | 项 目 | | 本报告期 | | | 上年同期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 归属于上市公司股东的净利润 | | 50,000.00 | ～ | 70,000.00 | 26,797.30 | | | 比上年同期增长 | 86.59% | ～ | 161.22% | | | 扣除非经常性损益后的净利润 | | 48,000.00 | ～ | 68,000.00 | 11,234.10 | | | 比上年同期增长 | 327.27% | ～ | 505.30% | | | 基本每股收益（元/股） | | 0.3926 | ～ | ...

Market Overview - The aviation and airport sector declined by 0.49% on January 29, with Huaxia Airlines leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98, up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08, down 0.3% [1] Stock Performance - Shanghai Airport (600009) closed at 30.95, up 1.14% with a trading volume of 196,800 shares and a turnover of 605 million yuan [1] - Xiamen Airport (600897) closed at 17.68, up 0.68% with a trading volume of 80,100 shares and a turnover of 141 million yuan [1] - Baiyun Airport (600004) closed at 9.58, up 0.21% with a trading volume of 197,200 shares and a turnover of 188 million yuan [1] - Shenzhen Airport (000089) closed at 7.24, down 0.14% with a trading volume of 212,700 shares and a turnover of 153 million yuan [1] - Spring Airlines (601021) closed at 55.95, down 0.25% with a trading volume of 42,400 shares and a turnover of 236 million yuan [1] - HNA Holding (600221) closed at 1.68, down 0.59% with a trading volume of 3,055,900 shares and a turnover of 513 million yuan [1] - China Southern Airlines (600029) closed at 7.20, down 1.10% with a trading volume of 1,070,300 shares and a turnover of 768 million yuan [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The aviation and airport sector experienced a net outflow of 242 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 230 million yuan [3] - Major stocks like Shanghai Airport and Shenzhen Airport had varying net inflows and outflows from different investor types [4] - Shanghai Airport had a net inflow of 28.37 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 39.44 million yuan [4] - China Southern Airlines had a net outflow of 10.48 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net inflow of 22.85 million yuan from retail investors [4] ETF Performance - The Aerospace ETF (product code: 159227) tracked the National Aerospace Industry Index and saw a 3.00% increase over the last five days, with a net redemption of 78.67 million yuan [6] - The General Aviation ETF (product code: 159230) tracked the National General Aviation Industry Index and had a 2.17% increase, with a net redemption of 5.55 million yuan [7] - The Tourism ETF (product code: 562510) tracked the China Securities Tourism Theme Index and decreased by 4.77%, with a net inflow of 8.09 million yuan [7]

Market Overview - The aviation and airport sector declined by 1.1% on January 26, with CITIC Hainan Airlines leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4132.61, down 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14316.64, down 0.85% [1] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances include: - Spring Airlines (601021) closed at 58.13, up 0.05% with a trading volume of 50,900 shares and a turnover of 297 million yuan - China Eastern Airlines (600115) closed at 5.81, down 1.19% with a trading volume of 2,620,300 shares and a turnover of 1.536 billion yuan - CITIC Hainan Airlines (000099) closed at 20.44, down 3.90% with a trading volume of 251,500 shares and a turnover of 518 million yuan [1][3] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector experienced a net outflow of 999.1 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 624.0 million yuan [3][4] - The capital flow for specific stocks shows: - Shenzhen Airport (000089) had a net outflow of 6.15 million yuan from retail investors - CITIC Hainan Airlines (000099) had a significant net outflow of 60.43 million yuan from institutional investors [4] ETF Performance - The Aerospace ETF (product code: 159227) tracked the National Aerospace Industry Index and saw a 6.64% increase over the past five days, with a net subscription of 190 million yuan [6] - The General Aviation ETF (product code: 159230) tracked the National General Aviation Industry Index and had a 5.15% increase, but saw a decrease of 10 million shares in its latest subscription [7]

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Overweight" indicating that it is expected to outperform the overall market [30]. Core Insights - The total market value of transportation industry funds reached 21.5 billion, a 19% increase from the previous quarter, ranking 16th among 31 industries [5][6]. - The proportion of holdings in the aviation transportation, ports, cross-border logistics, and highways sectors has increased, with respective shares of 56.8%, 3.4%, 4.6%, and 4.8%, showing significant increases [12]. - The top ten holdings in the transportation industry funds include China Eastern Airlines, Southern Airlines, SF Express, and others, with notable growth rates for China Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines at 448% and 244% respectively [20][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Changes in Fund Holdings - The total market value of transportation industry funds reached 21.5 billion, a 19% increase from Q3, with a 1 rank increase in the industry ranking [5][6]. - The transportation industry fund holdings accounted for 1.32% of all fund heavy holdings, up by 0.24 percentage points from Q3 [10]. 2. Sector Performance - The market value changes for various sectors within the transportation industry showed significant fluctuations, with aviation transportation increasing by 80% and express delivery decreasing by 39% [12]. - The holdings in the aviation transportation sector have increased significantly, while express delivery and shipping sectors have seen declines [12]. 3. Top Holdings - The top ten holdings in the transportation industry funds include: - China Eastern Airlines: 45 billion, up 448% - Southern Airlines: 31 billion, up 244% - SF Express: 11 billion, down 16% [20][23]. - Other notable stocks with over 3 billion in total market value and growth rates exceeding 10% include Spring Airlines and Jiayou International [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for major airlines including China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and others, while recommending "Hold" for YTO Express and Shentong Express [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the aviation sector driven by multiple factors, including the upcoming Spring Festival travel peak, the appreciation of the RMB easing cost pressures, and the increase in visa-free countries for Chinese citizens, which is expected to boost international travel demand [4][7]. - The anticipated passenger transport volume during the 2026 Spring Festival is projected to reach a historical high of 95 million, with a daily average of 2.38 million passengers, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 5.3% [4]. - The report emphasizes the cyclical recovery of the civil aviation market, with expectations of rising passenger load factors and ticket prices, driven by a gradual recovery in demand and limited capacity growth [4][7]. Summary by Sections Aviation and Airports - Daily flight operations from January 19 to January 23 showed slight fluctuations, with Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines operating 2,245.80 and 2,221.80 flights respectively, while year-on-year comparisons indicate a decrease in operations [4]. - The average aircraft utilization rates during the same period were reported, with Spring Airlines achieving the highest at 9.20 hours per day, although all airlines showed a decline compared to the previous year [4]. - The report suggests that the upcoming Spring Festival will significantly enhance market demand, particularly from student travelers, as the holiday season approaches [4][7]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The report notes a divergence in the growth rates of express delivery companies, with a total of approximately 4.073 billion packages collected from January 12 to January 18, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.82% [7]. - It highlights the ongoing high-quality development of the express delivery industry, with policies aimed at reducing competition ("anti-involution") expected to improve profitability [7]. - The report recommends focusing on express companies with significant profit elasticity, such as Shentong Express and YTO Express, as well as those with strong growth potential in overseas markets like Jitu Express [7]. Infrastructure - The report tracks various transportation metrics, including highway and railway freight volumes, indicating a mixed performance across sectors [7]. - It suggests that the low-interest-rate environment will continue to support investment in infrastructure, with a focus on high-quality assets [7]. - Specific recommendations include investing in highway companies like Shandong Highway and Anhui Expressway, as well as railway companies like Daqin Railway and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [7]. Shipping and Trade - The report indicates a mixed performance in shipping rates, with the SCFI index showing a decline of 7.39% week-on-week and a year-on-year drop of 28.73% [7]. - It emphasizes the potential for investment opportunities in oil and bulk shipping due to geopolitical factors and structural demand growth [7]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and COSCO Shipping Holdings for oil shipping investments, as well as Hai Tong Development for bulk shipping [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, recommending companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in charter rates for VLCCs, which rose by 4.62% to $62,250 per day, and Cape rates increased by 5.37% to $26,475 per day, indicating a strong correlation between commodity prices and shipping rates [3]. - New ship prices are rising alongside second-hand ship prices, with the new ship composite index increasing by 0.07 to 184.76 points, suggesting a favorable market for shipbuilders [3]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the shipping market, particularly in oil and bulk shipping, with expectations of continued demand driven by geopolitical factors and commodity price fluctuations [3]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market Performance - The shipping index increased by 1.76%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.38 percentage points [4]. - The coastal dry bulk freight index in China rose by 0.84%, while the Shanghai export container freight index fell by 7.39% [4]. Oil Shipping - VLCC rates are currently around $100,000 per day, with a recent decline of 11% in average rates to $105,090 per day, indicating potential volatility in the market [3]. - The report notes that while VLCC rates may adjust, smaller oil tanker rates remain supported due to high demand [3]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The report indicates a rebound in dry bulk rates, particularly driven by increased grain exports from South America, with the BDI index recording a 12.4% increase [3]. - Capesize rates increased by 16.1%, reflecting strong demand in the Pacific market [3]. Container Shipping - The report observes a seasonal decline in container shipping rates as the peak season ends, with the SCFI index dropping by 7.4% [3]. - The resumption of services in the Red Sea has been noted, but the market remains cautious due to geopolitical uncertainties [3]. Air Transportation - The report highlights a significant supply constraint in aircraft manufacturing, with an aging fleet and increasing passenger demand expected to enhance airline profitability [3]. - Airlines are recommended for investment due to their strong demand elasticity and potential for significant earnings growth [3]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The report anticipates a concentration of market share and profits among leading express delivery companies, with a focus on ZTO Express and YTO Express [3]. - The logistics sector shows resilience, with steady growth in freight volumes reported [3].

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Spring Festival travel season in China is expected to see record-high passenger flow and transportation volume across railways and civil aviation, with significant increases in both sectors compared to previous years [1][4]. Railway Sector - The China National Railway Group anticipates sending 539 million passengers during the Spring Festival travel period from February 2 to March 13, 2026, representing a 5% year-on-year increase [1]. - On peak travel days, over 14,000 passenger trains are expected to operate, with a 5.3% increase in seating capacity compared to the previous year [1]. - The railway ticketing service will enhance support for key passenger groups, including additional discounts for college graduates and continued services for students and workers [1][3]. Civil Aviation Sector - The civil aviation sector is projected to transport 95 million passengers during the Spring Festival, with a daily average of 2.375 million passengers, marking a 5.3% increase [4]. - Major airlines are expected to operate 657,000 flights, also reflecting a 5% increase year-on-year [4]. - The top three airlines (China Eastern, Air China, and China Southern) will account for 43% of the flights, while the top 20 airlines will represent 90% of the total operations [4]. Ticket Pricing and Trends - As of January 15, 2026, the average pre-sale price for domestic economy class tickets during the Spring Festival is 1,064 yuan (including tax), which is 20% higher than the actual transaction price from the previous year [5]. - The peak ticket prices are expected around the Spring Festival, with significant price drops possible for travelers who adjust their travel dates [5]. - Popular domestic travel destinations are dominated by southern cities, with Shantou leading in booking growth at 186% year-on-year [5]. International Travel - During the Spring Festival, outbound travel is primarily focused on Southeast Asia, with Thailand being the most popular destination [6]. - There has been a significant reduction in flights to Japan, with a cancellation rate of 36% for flights during the travel period [6]. - The demand for customized outbound travel packages has increased, with an 18% rise in pre-orders for long-haul trips [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for major airlines, including China National Aviation (China Air), China Eastern Airlines, Southern Airlines, and others, based on their projected earnings growth and favorable market conditions [2][3]. Core Insights - The domestic passenger load factor has increased significantly, reaching a historical high of 85.7% in December 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4 percentage points [7][10]. - The international passenger load factor has shown a slight increase, but the growth rate has slowed due to disruptions in the Japanese route, with December figures reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.9 percentage points [14][15]. - The overall industry demand growth continues to outpace supply growth, with a combined ASK/RPK increase of 6.6% and 9.1% respectively for the six listed airlines in December [7][10]. Summary by Sections 1. December International Supply and Demand Trends - The demand growth in December 2025 exceeded supply growth, with both domestic and international load factors reaching historical highs [10][11]. - The domestic routes saw a supply increase of 4.2% in ASK and a demand increase of 7.2% in RPK, while international routes experienced a 12.0% increase in ASK and a 13.3% increase in RPK [7][14]. 2. Aircraft Introductions and Fleet Growth - The total fleet of the six airlines increased by 0.4% in December, with a net addition of 14 aircraft, bringing the total to 3,386 [22][24]. - The A320 series was the primary aircraft introduced, with significant contributions from China National Aviation and Southern Airlines [22][27]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the tight supply-demand relationship in domestic routes will lead to a moderate increase in ticket prices in 2026, supported by regulatory measures to address low pricing [7][11]. - The international routes are expected to benefit from increased inbound tourism, with airlines like China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines positioned to gain from this trend [7][15].

Core Viewpoint - The aviation and airport sector experienced a decline of 1.17% on January 21, with China Eastern Airlines leading the drop, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.08% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.7% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The closing price of China Eastern Airlines was 6.22, reflecting a decrease of 2.20% with a trading volume of 1,109,700 shares and a transaction value of 6.95 million [2]. - The aviation and airport sector saw a net outflow of 84.83 million from major funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 10.9 million, and speculative funds had a net inflow of 194 million [2][3]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - China National Aviation (China National Airlines) had a net outflow of 22.99 million from major funds, with a net inflow of 5.52 million from speculative funds and a net outflow of 28.51 million from retail investors [3]. - Xiamen Airport reported a net outflow of 2.03 million from major funds, while speculative funds had a net inflow of 1.35 million, and retail investors saw a net inflow of 0.68 million [3]. - Shenzhen Airport experienced a net inflow of 12.93 million from major funds, with a net inflow of 2.77 million from speculative funds and a net outflow of 15.69 million from retail investors [3].

Group 1 - The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) announced a public notice regarding the change of the main operating base airport for Huaxia Airlines [2] - Huaxia Airlines is currently operating from Guiyang Longdongbao International Airport and plans to change its main operating base to Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport [2]