Investment Rating - The aviation industry is rated as "Overweight" [5] Core Views - The industry is expected to maintain a low supply growth rate, which could improve the supply-demand relationship and enhance airline profitability if demand recovers [1][4] - Despite weak ticket prices recently, the high passenger load factor indicates potential for revenue management improvements [1][4] - The report recommends continuous monitoring of peak season ticket prices and passenger load factors, with a positive outlook for major airlines [1][4] Summary by Sections Passenger Load Factor Performance - In June, the three major airlines maintained a high passenger load factor of 84.1%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Spring Airlines experienced a slight decline in load factor to 92.1%, while Juneyao Airlines showed improvement with a load factor of 86.7% [3] Revenue and Profitability Outlook - The three major airlines forecasted a narrowing of net losses for Q2 2025, with Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern expected to report net losses of 0.94 billion, 4.05 billion, and 8.00 billion respectively, reflecting a year-on-year reduction of 78.0% [4] - The improvement in profitability is attributed to better revenue levels, with domestic ticket prices showing a smaller decline compared to previous quarters [4] Stock Recommendations - The report highlights several stocks with a "Buy" rating, including Air China (753 HK), China Eastern Airlines (670 HK), China Southern Airlines (1055 HK), and Spring Airlines (601021 CH) [8][21] - Target prices for these stocks are set at 6.90 HKD for Air China, 3.20 HKD for China Eastern, and 5.00 HKD for China Southern, among others [8][21]

二零二五年上半年二到六月份那么个月的这个平均票价的话都是比一九年和二十年要略低一些那么当然因为今年的这个燃油负载费其实相对来讲是较低的所以我们看全票价的话可能相对就是没有那么好那么从二季度来看的话五月份其实含油的票价跟二零二四年同期是基本是持平的也就是说票价的话应该是超过了二十年的这个同期那么四到六月的话整个含油的票价还是低于了二零二四年 但是与此同时的话我们也要看到就是说在2024年的整个二季度航空煤油的这个出厂价格还是保持比较低的这样一个位置整个四到六月的航空煤油平均出厂价的话是在5445元每吨那么同比2024年的话其实也是下降了16.88%那么也就是说虽然和去年相比其实我们的平均票价有所下降但是呢整个航空公司的这个燃油成本是有大幅度的这样一个节约的 那么基于上述的这样一个分析也就是说在航班量和旅客量增长然后票价下跌然后油价的成本下跌的这样一个态势下那我们预计的话二零二五年的二季度那么国航南航东航它的一个营利状况的话有望到去年同期是大幅的减亏那么整体的话应该是在隐亏平衡线的这样一个附近 然后春秋航空的话我们预计它的规模经济润是在5.5到5.8亿元之间那么也就说和去年同期的话应该是持平或者是略有增长但因为去 ...

重申华夏航空"买入"评级，目标价12.55 元，对应2025 年22X PE。公司为支线航空龙头，飞机日利用率 趋于恢复至疫前水平，并且新补贴办法利好公司航网收益。资产周转效率+补贴双提升，公司有望进入 盈利释放周期，我们预计25-27 年归母净利润CAGR 有望达到71.1%。中长期公司深耕支线市场，逐步 构建匹配支线特点的航线网络，建立细分市场运营壁垒。往后展望，受益于支线市场航线开辟、出行需 求培育，公司有望引领行业成长。 短期：机队周转效率提升，推动盈利释放 公司机队持续扩张，2024 年末达到75 架，2019-2024 年复合增速仍达9.3%。 目前公司单机机长人数正逐步改善，趋于实现与机队规模的匹配。截至24年末，华夏航空机长数为300 人，单机机长人数恢复至19 年的82%。伴随机长资源和保障能力持续提高，我们认为机队周转效率有 望进一步提升，摊薄折旧、人工等刚性成本，成为25/26 年公司盈利大幅增长的主要驱动力。 中期：政府补贴改善+收益水平回暖，看好单机利润突破机队周转效率好转以外，政府补贴改善和收益 水平回暖有望增厚盈利。2024年民航局支线新补贴办法单位小时补贴标准明显提升，同时新疆 ...

Core Viewpoint - The opening of the direct flight route from Chongqing to Balikun marks a significant development in the aviation sector, enhancing connectivity and promoting regional economic collaboration in Xinjiang [1][3]. Group 1: Flight Route Details - The new route is operated by an Airbus A320, with a one-way flight time of approximately 3 hours [3]. - Initially, flights are scheduled for July 15 and 17, with regular operations starting from July 29, flying every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday [3]. - Departure from Chongqing is at 06:40, arriving in Balikun at 09:55, while the return flight departs Balikun at 10:40 and arrives in Chongqing at 13:50 [3]. Group 2: Economic and Cultural Impact - The new route significantly shortens the travel distance between Chongqing and Balikun, providing efficient travel options and facilitating economic collaboration between the eastern and western regions of Xinjiang [3]. - The flight service supports the "tourism revitalization" strategy in Xinjiang, promoting local tourism by showcasing Balikun's unique cultural and natural attractions [3][6]. - The airline aims to contribute to the development of a "trillion-level cultural tourism and sports industry cluster" in Xinjiang through an "aviation + tourism" model [3][6]. Group 3: Broader Aviation Network Development - 华夏航空 has opened multiple routes within Xinjiang, including Alatai, Korla, Aksu, and Kashgar, and has increased flight frequencies from Chongqing [6]. - The airline's efforts enhance the aviation logistics network, facilitating the export of local energy and agricultural products [6]. - The airline promotes the use of domestically produced aircraft, such as the ARJ21, supporting the growth of the domestic aviation industry [6].

公司研究 华夏航空（002928）2025 年中报业绩预告点评 强推（维持） 1H25 年预计实现盈利中值 2.6 亿，同比增长近 9 倍，看好公司盈利持续兑现 1）1H25：2025 年上半年预计归母净利 2.2~2.9 亿元，同比+741%~1009%，中 值为 2.55 亿元（1H24 归母净利 0.26 亿元，同比+875%）；扣非归母净利 2.0~2.8 亿元，同比+1493%~2130%，中值为 2.4 亿元（1H24 扣非归母利润 0.13 亿元， 同比+1812%）；按照区间中值测算，非经常性损益约 0.15 亿元。 2）25Q2：预计归母净利 1.4~2.1 亿元，中值为 1.7 亿元（24Q2 归母净利 0.01 亿元，25Q1 归母净利 0.82 亿元）；扣非归母净利 1.2~2.0 亿元，中值为 1.6 亿 元（24Q2 扣非归母净亏损 0.03 亿元，25Q1 扣非归母净利 0.76 亿元）；按照区 间中值测算，非经常性损益约 0.09 亿元。 证 券 研 究 报 告 我们看好公司经营端不断改善，叠加油价中枢下移推动成本减负，盈利有望持 续兑现。1、盈利预测：我们维持 25~27 年 ...

7月15日上午，重庆直飞巴里坤的华夏航空（002928）G54215航班在新疆哈密市巴里坤县平稳落地，标 志着巴里坤大河机场正式通航，成为新疆投运的第28个运输机场、第2个高原机场。巴里坤大河机场飞 行区等级指标4C，总投资6.93亿元，本期新建1条长3000米、宽45米的跑道，主降方向设置Ⅰ类精密进 近系统；建设4000平方米的航站楼、5个机位站坪、1座塔台和800平方米的航管楼；配套建设空管、供 油、供电、消防救援等设施。巴里坤大河机场的建成投运，将进一步完善新疆航空运输网络，改善地区 交通条件，助力地区综合交通运输体系建设，有效推动交通运输与旅游产业、能源产业融合发展，促进 巴里坤县及周边地区区域经济和特色产业发展，同时在落实"旅游兴疆"战略、助力乡村振兴等方面发挥 重要作用。(央视新闻) ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant developments in China's financial and economic landscape, including regulatory measures, monetary policy updates, trade statistics, and corporate earnings forecasts. Group 1: Regulatory and Policy Developments - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasizes strengthening financial trial work to combat market manipulation, insider trading, illegal fundraising, loan fraud, and money laundering, while also improving rules for emerging financial disputes [2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a series of structural monetary policy tools to support technology innovation and consumption, with a total loan contract amount for technology innovation reaching 1.74 trillion yuan by the end of May [3] - The PBOC plans to conduct a 14 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - As of June 2025, the broad money supply (M2) in China reached 330.29 trillion yuan, growing by 8.3% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, up by 4.6% [2] - In the first half of 2025, the total social financing increased by 22.83 trillion yuan, which is 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2] - China's goods trade in the first half of 2025 totaled 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with exports at 13 trillion yuan (up 7.2%) and imports at 8.79 trillion yuan (down 2.7%) [4] Group 3: Corporate Earnings and Developments - China National Salt Industry Corporation reported a 5.76% decrease in revenue for the first half of 2025, with net profit down 88.04% to 52.72 million yuan [8] - Jinpu Titanium Industry plans to exit the titanium dioxide industry through significant asset swaps [9] - Qianfang Technology expects a net profit increase of 1125.99% to 1534.65% for the first half of 2025 [10] - Huahong Technology anticipates a net profit increase of 3047.48% to 3721.94% for the same period [11] - Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation projects a net profit increase of 1628.83% to 2315.27% for the first half of 2025 [19]

Macro News - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasizes strict punishment for financial crimes such as market manipulation, insider trading, illegal fundraising, loan fraud, and money laundering to promote healthy financial market development [1][5] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will conduct a 14 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation on July 15, 2025, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, with 8 trillion yuan for 3-month operations and 6 trillion yuan for 6-month operations [3][6] - In the first half of 2025, the total social financing increased by 22.83 trillion yuan, with new loans amounting to 12.92 trillion yuan, and M2 growth of 8.3% year-on-year [4][6] Company News - China Eastern Airlines expects a net loss of 12 billion to 16 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 [12] - Greenland Holdings anticipates a net loss of 30 billion to 35 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 [13] - Longi Green Energy expects a net loss of 24 billion to 28 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, although it represents a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [13] - Perfect World anticipates a net profit of 4.8 billion to 5.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from losses [17] - Wen Tai Technology expects a net profit increase of 178% to 317% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [18] - China Rare Earth anticipates a net profit of 136 million to 176 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a return to profitability [21] Investment Opportunities - The Robotaxi industry is expected to experience rapid growth due to technological advancements and supportive policies, with 2025 projected as a year of mass production [29] - The solid-state battery market is anticipated to see significant growth, with expectations for small-scale production by 2027 and larger-scale shipments by 2030, driven by increasing demand for high-performance batteries [30] - The humanoid robot market is projected to grow significantly, with a record order of 124 million yuan for humanoid robot manufacturing services, indicating strong market potential [31] - The successful production of the first barrel of uranium from China's largest natural uranium production project is expected to enhance the country's energy resource security and influence in uranium resource development [32]

Major Events - Zhonghua Equipment plans to acquire 100% equity of Yiyang Rubber and Plastic Machinery Group and Beihua Machinery, with stock suspension starting July 15, 2025 [3] - Suzhou Planning intends to purchase 100% equity of Dongjin Aerospace through a combination of cash and stock issuance, with stock resuming trading on July 15, 2025 [4] - Aerospace Development's independent director was detained for personal reasons unrelated to the company's operations, which remain stable [5][6] - *ST Tianmao issued a risk warning regarding potential delisting due to failure to disclose annual reports in time [7] - ST Shuntian will suspend trading for one day on July 15, 2025, and will remove other risk warnings, changing its stock name to Jiangsu Shuntian [8] - Xinghui Entertainment plans to transfer 99.66% equity of Espanyol Football Club for €130 million, focusing on core business areas [9] Performance Reports - China Salt Chemical reported a 5.76% decrease in revenue to ¥5.998 billion and an 88.04% drop in net profit to ¥52.71 million for the first half of 2025 [10] - Jiu Gui Jiu expects a net profit of ¥8 million to ¥12 million, down 90.08% to 93.39% year-on-year, with revenue around ¥560 million, a 43% decline [11] - Suli Co. anticipates a net profit of ¥72 million to ¥86 million, up 1008.39% to 1223.91% year-on-year, driven by increased sales and prices [12] - Te Yi Pharmaceutical expects a net profit of ¥34 million to ¥38 million, a growth of 1164.22% to 1312.95% year-on-year, due to strong sales of its core product [13] - Huahong Technology forecasts a net profit of ¥70 million to ¥85 million, up 3047.48% to 3721.94% year-on-year, benefiting from improved market conditions [14] - Qianfang Technology expects a net profit of ¥150 million to ¥200 million, an increase of 1125.99% to 1534.65% year-on-year, influenced by fair value changes of equity instruments [15] - Huaxia Airlines anticipates a net profit of ¥220 million to ¥290 million, up 741.26% to 1008.93% year-on-year, due to improved flight demand [16] - Xianfeng Holdings expects a net profit of ¥34 million to ¥42 million, a growth of 524.58% to 671.53% year-on-year, mainly from non-recurring gains [17] - Xinyi Sheng expects a net profit of ¥370 million to ¥420 million, up 327.68% to 385.47% year-on-year, driven by AI-related investments [18] - Haili Co. anticipates a net profit of ¥30.5 million to ¥36 million, a growth of 625.83% to 756.71% year-on-year, due to improved sales [19] - Hengsheng Electronics expects a net profit of approximately ¥251 million, an increase of about 740.95% year-on-year, due to significant non-recurring gains [20] - Tianqi Lithium expects a net profit of ¥0 to ¥155 million, recovering from a loss of ¥5.206 billion in the previous year [21] - Shui Jing Fang forecasts revenue of ¥1.498 billion, down 12.84%, and a net profit of ¥105 million, down 56.52% [22] - CICC expects a net profit of ¥3.453 billion to ¥3.966 billion, an increase of 55% to 78% year-on-year [23] - Shenwan Hongyuan anticipates a net profit of ¥4.1 billion to ¥4.5 billion, a growth of 92.66% to 111.46% year-on-year [24] - Xinda Securities expects a net profit of ¥921 million to ¥1.044 billion, an increase of 50% to 70% year-on-year [25] - Shanxi Securities anticipates a net profit of ¥504 million to ¥544 million, a growth of 58.17% to 70.72% year-on-year [26] - Guohai Securities expects a net profit of ¥370 million, a growth of 159.26% year-on-year [27] - Guocheng Mining anticipates a net profit of ¥493 million to ¥548 million, a growth of 1046.75% to 1174.69% year-on-year [28] - China Rare Earth expects a net profit of ¥136 million to ¥176 million, recovering from a loss of ¥244 million [29] - Perfect World anticipates a net profit of ¥480 million to ¥520 million, recovering from a loss of ¥177 million [30] - Fangda Carbon expects a net profit of ¥50 million to ¥60 million, down 65.13% to 70.93% year-on-year [31] - Huanghe Xuanfeng expects a net loss of ¥285 million [32] - JA Solar anticipates a net loss of ¥2.5 billion to ¥3 billion, worsening from a loss of ¥874 million [33] - Shanxi Black Cat expects a net loss of ¥490 million to ¥540 million [34] - Ganfeng Lithium anticipates a net loss of ¥300 million to ¥550 million, improving from a loss of ¥760 million [35] - Xinda Real Estate expects a net loss of ¥3.5 billion to ¥3.9 billion [36] - Greenland Holdings anticipates a net loss of ¥3 billion to ¥3.5 billion [37] - Air China expects a net loss of ¥1.7 billion to ¥2.2 billion [39] - OFILM expects a net loss of ¥85 million to ¥115 million [40] - Vanke A expects a net loss of ¥10 billion to ¥12 billion [41] Major Contracts - Zhongchen Co. won a project from Southern Power Grid worth ¥379 million, accounting for 12.26% of its 2024 audited revenue [42] - Gaode Infrared signed a procurement agreement worth ¥879 million, representing 32.84% of its 2024 audited revenue [43]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets have announced significant changes in their financial forecasts and strategic decisions, indicating varied performance across different sectors in the first half of 2025 [1][3]. Company Announcements - Zhonghua Equipment plans to acquire 100% stakes in Yiyang Rubber and Plastic Machinery Group and Beihua Machinery, with stock suspension starting July 15, 2025, for up to 10 trading days [3]. - Jiugui Liquor expects a net profit decline of 90.08% to 93.39% in the first half of 2025, with projected revenue around 560 million yuan, a decrease of approximately 43% year-on-year [5]. - Suli Co. anticipates a net profit increase of 1008.39% to 1223.91%, with expected profits between 72 million and 86 million yuan, driven by improved market conditions [6]. - Te Yi Pharmaceutical forecasts a net profit growth of 1164.22% to 1312.95%, with profits expected between 34 million and 38 million yuan, supported by strong sales of its core product [7]. - Huahong Technology predicts a net profit increase of 3047.48% to 3721.94%, with expected profits between 70 million and 85 million yuan, benefiting from rising rare earth product prices [8]. - Huaxia Airlines expects a net profit increase of 741.26% to 1008.93%, with profits projected between 220 million and 290 million yuan, due to improved demand for air travel [9]. - Xianfeng Holdings anticipates a net profit increase of 524.58% to 671.53%, with expected profits between 34 million and 42 million yuan, largely due to non-recurring gains [10]. - Xinyisheng expects a net profit increase of 327.68% to 385.47%, with profits projected between 370 million and 420 million yuan, driven by growth in AI-related investments [12]. - Hengsheng Electronics forecasts a net profit increase of approximately 740.95%, with expected profits around 251 million yuan, aided by significant non-recurring gains [13]. - CICC anticipates a net profit increase of 55% to 78%, with expected profits between 3.453 billion and 3.966 billion yuan, driven by growth in investment banking and wealth management [14]. - Xinda Securities expects a net profit increase of 50% to 70%, with profits projected between 921 million and 1.044 billion yuan, supported by improved asset management [15]. - Shanxi Securities forecasts a net profit increase of 58.17% to 70.72%, with expected profits between 504 million and 544 million yuan, driven by growth in wealth management and international business [16]. - Guocheng Mining anticipates a net profit increase of 1046.75% to 1174.69%, with expected profits between 493 million and 548 million yuan, primarily due to non-recurring gains from asset sales [17]. - China Rare Earth expects a net profit of 136 million to 176 million yuan, recovering from a loss of 244 million yuan in the previous year, aided by improved market conditions [18]. - Perfect World anticipates a net profit of 480 million to 520 million yuan, recovering from a loss of 177 million yuan, driven by successful game launches and esports growth [19]. - Huanghe Xuanfeng expects a net loss of 285 million yuan, impacted by intense competition and weak demand in the superhard materials sector [20][21]. - JA Solar forecasts a net loss of 2.5 billion to 3 billion yuan, worsening from a loss of 874 million yuan, due to industry-wide supply-demand imbalances [22]. - Shanxi Black Cat anticipates a net loss of 490 million to 540 million yuan, driven by declining sales and prices of its main products [23]. - Xinda Real Estate expects a net loss of 3.5 billion to 3.9 billion yuan, transitioning from profit to loss due to reduced project deliveries and impairment provisions [24]. Major Contracts - Zhongchen Co. won a project from Southern Power Grid worth 379 million yuan, representing 12.26% of its audited revenue for 2024 [26]. - Gaode Infrared signed a procurement agreement for a complete equipment system worth 879 million yuan, accounting for 32.84% of its 2024 audited revenue, expected to positively impact this year's performance [27].