| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600897 | 厦门空港 | 15.20 | -0.85% | 13.03万 | 1.98 Z | | 600009 | 上海机场 | 31.43 | 0.35% | 8.46万 | 2.65亿 | | 000089 | 深圳机场 | 7.15 | 0.70% | 13.44万 | 9556.79万 | | 000099 | 中信海直 | 21.64 | 0.74% | 9.59万 | 2.08亿 | | 603885 | 吉祥航空 | 14.23 | 0.92% | 35.09万 | 4.99 Z | | 600004 | 白云机场 | 9.59 | 1.27% | 16.08万 | 1.53亿 | | 601021 | 春秋航空 | 54.61 | 1.68% | 12.56万 | 6.84亿 | | 601111 | 中国国航 | 8.69 | 2.72% | 136.63万 | 11.81亿 | | 600221 | 海航控股 | 1.7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongtai Securities indicates a downward trend in the total flight schedule volume for domestic airlines in the 2025 winter-spring season, both year-on-year and month-on-month, suggesting a potential for price recovery due to supply constraints and high load factors [1][2]. Group 1: Seasonal Overview - The total flight schedule volume for domestic airlines in the 2025 winter-spring season shows a year-on-year decrease of 2% and a month-on-month decrease of 3%, while still being 15% higher than the 2019 winter-spring season [2]. - International flight schedule volume has limited growth, with a 2% increase compared to the 2024 winter-spring season, reaching 75% of the 2019 levels [2]. - The planned schedule volume for domestic airlines in Asia, Europe, Oceania, the Middle East, North America, and Africa has recovered to 79%, 126%, 81%, 171%, 26%, and 267% of the 2019 levels, respectively [2]. Group 2: Domestic Route Dynamics - The overall flight schedule volume is declining, with only five-tier cities showing significant growth, which increased by 4.6% [3]. - The Civil Aviation Administration has limited the release of flight slots in first-tier cities, leading to stable schedule volumes in these areas [3]. - Airlines are likely reducing schedules in less profitable lower-tier cities while increasing flights in five-tier cities, particularly in Xinjiang due to favorable subsidy policies [3][4]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Major airlines are reducing their presence in lower-tier markets, which may enhance their revenue quality; for instance, Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines have decreased their schedule volumes in lower-tier cities by 3%, 5%, and 4%, respectively [5]. - The proportion of core city flight schedules for major airlines is significant, with Air China at 82%, China Eastern at 80%, and Spring Airlines at 74% [5]. - Huaxia Airlines is increasing its schedule volume by 5.2%, primarily in second and five-tier cities, benefiting from recovery in capacity and subsidies [6]. Group 4: Strategic Investments - Spring Airlines and Hainan Airlines are focusing on increasing their flight schedules in second to five-tier cities, with Spring Airlines showing growth rates of 6.27% to 31.46% across various city tiers [7]. - Hainan Airlines is also increasing its flight schedules in first, second, and five-tier cities, indicating a dual benefit from demand and subsidy policies [7].

Core Insights - The aviation and airport sector experienced a slight increase of 0.17% on October 17, with Xiamen Airport leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3839.76, down 1.95%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12688.94, down 3.04% [1] Stock Performance - Xiamen Airport (600897) closed at 15.33, up 4.93% with a trading volume of 140,100 shares and a turnover of 211 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include: - 吉祥航空 (603885) at 14.10, up 3.30% [1] - 中国国航 (601111) at 8.46, up 1.32% [1] - 中国东航 (600115) at 4.48, up 0.67% [1] - Conversely, 深圳机场 (000089) closed at 7.10, down 0.42% [1] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector saw a net inflow of 175 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 195 million yuan [2] - The detailed capital flow for key stocks includes: - 中国国航 (601111) with a net inflow of 14.4 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - 吉祥航空 (603885) with a net inflow of 64.3 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - 海航控股 (600221) had a net outflow of 54.3 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Core Insights - The aviation industry is experiencing a steady increase in flight execution volume and passenger load factors, indicating a recovery in demand and potential for profitability improvement [1][2][5] Flight Volume and Passenger Load Factors - As of October 14, 2025, the daily flight execution volume in civil aviation is 15,539 flights, a 3.73% increase from 14,980 flights in the same period of 2024 [1][2] - Passenger load factors for July to September 2025 are 84.5%, 87.5%, and 85.8%, all exceeding the levels from the same period in 2019 [1][2] - The average passenger load factor for the three major airlines in September 2025 is 85.7%, up 5 percentage points from 2019 [2] Ticket Price Recovery - The average domestic economy class ticket price in September 2025 is 697 yuan, a 0.6% increase year-on-year, and a recovery from a 5% decrease compared to September 2019 [2] - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the average domestic economy class ticket price is 849 yuan, reflecting a 0.3% increase year-on-year and a recovery from a 1.4% decrease compared to the same holiday in 2019 [2] International and Domestic Flight Growth - The average daily execution volume of international flights and flights to Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan is 2,154 flights, a significant increase of 16.70% year-on-year [3] - Domestic flight execution volume averages 13,885 flights per day, a 1.91% increase year-on-year [3] - By June 2025, international flight volumes have recovered to 88% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019 [3] Supply Constraints and Future Outlook - Global aircraft manufacturers are facing significant supply chain disruptions, leading to a slowdown in aircraft deliveries, with Boeing and Airbus expected to deliver 348 and 766 aircraft in 2024, respectively [4] - The expansion of aviation capacity is expected to remain constrained due to regulatory challenges and the aging fleet [4] Oil Price Trends and Competitive Landscape - International oil prices have been on a downward trend in 2025, which is beneficial for airline profitability due to reduced fuel costs [5] - The "anti-involution" policy initiated in June 2025 aims to address the issue of continuously declining ticket prices, with expectations for price recovery in the aviation sector [5] Investment Recommendations - The combination of low supply growth, recovering demand, and decreasing oil prices suggests a favorable environment for ticket price recovery and airline profitability [6] - Continuous monitoring of demand recovery, particularly in business travel and international flight resumption, is advised [6] - Recommended stocks for investment include Huaxia Airlines, Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and Spring Airlines [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the airline transportation industry is "Positive" [2]. Core Viewpoints - The industry has maintained a high passenger load factor since the beginning of 2025, with domestic airlines focusing on low growth in capacity while increasing investment in international routes. The supply remains tight with a net fleet growth rate below 3%. The passenger load factor has improved year-on-year and compared to the same period in 2019, particularly in domestic routes. Domestic turnover has shown steady growth, while international turnover has significantly recovered to 2019 levels. Ticket prices have turned positive during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with demand remaining robust. The fourth quarter is expected to see improvements in year-on-year comparisons due to a low base from the previous year, which will support the recovery of unit revenue for airlines [12][13][36]. Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on airlines such as China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Air China, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines due to the expected recovery in unit revenue and profitability [13][36]. Passenger Load Factor and Ticket Prices - The passenger load factor remains high, with the industry achieving a load factor of 87.5% in August 2025, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year and 0.9 percentage points compared to 2019. Domestic turnover increased by 3.5% year-on-year, while international and regional routes have recovered to 100.4% of 2019 levels [15][19]. - Ticket prices have shown a positive trend, with the average domestic ticket price reaching 942 RMB during the National Day holiday, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of only 1.5%. The average ticket price for early October 2025 was up 2.2% year-on-year [4][23]. Oil Prices and Exchange Rates - The average aviation fuel price in October 2025 was 5572 RMB per ton, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year. The Brent crude oil price has also decreased, with an average of 64.25 USD per barrel in October, down 16.7% year-on-year. The Chinese Yuan has appreciated against the US Dollar, with the exchange rate at 7.0968 RMB per USD as of October 16, 2025 [5][36][40]. Airline Operations and Fleet Growth - Airlines have continued to invest in international capacity, with domestic and international passenger load factors remaining high. In September 2025, the domestic load factor for major airlines showed significant year-on-year increases, with China Eastern Airlines leading with a 3.4 percentage point increase compared to 2019 [41][44]. - In terms of fleet growth, Air China had the highest net increase in aircraft in September 2025, adding 5 aircraft, while other airlines also showed modest growth [6][41].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the aviation industry is "Outperform" [7]. Core Views - The aviation industry is experiencing a golden era with continuous growth in capacity and passenger volume, driven by a recovery in demand and increased operational efficiency among airlines [4][6]. - Airlines are increasing capacity deployment, with passenger turnover growth outpacing capacity growth, indicating strong demand recovery [4]. - The report highlights that the average aircraft utilization rate has improved, with wide-body aircraft averaging 9.0 hours and narrow-body aircraft at 7.9 hours per day [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In September 2025, civil aviation passenger transport volume reached approximately 62.7 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% compared to 2024 [4]. - Domestic capacity increased by 1.0% year-on-year, while domestic passenger flow grew by 3.6% [4]. Airline Performance - Major airlines reported varying growth rates in capacity (ASK) and passenger turnover (RPK): - Air China: ASK +1%, RPK +6% - China Eastern Airlines: ASK +4%, RPK +9% - Southern Airlines: ASK +4%, RPK +5% - Spring Airlines: ASK +21%, RPK +23% - Hainan Airlines: ASK +6%, RPK +7% [4][5]. Domestic Market - The domestic market shows a balanced growth in supply and demand, with Spring Airlines experiencing significant growth in both capacity and passenger volume [4]. - The report indicates that the overall ASK and RPK for major airlines have shown modest growth compared to 2024, with some airlines like Spring Airlines showing substantial increases [5]. International Market - The international flight market is recovering, with airlines like Spring Airlines and China Eastern Airlines exceeding pre-pandemic levels in terms of capacity and passenger turnover [4]. - The report notes that international flights have seen a significant recovery, with the number of flights reaching 85.7% of the levels seen in 2019 [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the aviation sector due to strong supply-side logic and elastic demand, with potential for significant performance improvement in airlines [4]. - Specific airlines recommended for investment include China Eastern Airlines, Hainan Airlines, Air China, Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Cathay Pacific [4].

Core Viewpoint - The aviation industry is experiencing a tightening supply-demand structure during the off-peak season, leading to an increase in ticket prices, driven by a recovery in domestic travel demand and improved supply dynamics [1][3][4]. Group 1: Demand and Pricing - Domestic business travel passenger volume has been steadily increasing since June, contributing to overall industry demand growth and higher ticket prices, as business travelers are less price-sensitive and often choose premium seating [2]. - Since the "Eleventh" holiday, domestic ticket prices have shown a year-on-year increase, reversing the decline seen in the first three quarters of the year, indicating a sustainable upward trend in pricing due to improved supply-demand conditions [1][4]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - In September, as the aviation industry enters the off-peak season, airlines are grounding more aircraft for maintenance or reducing flight schedules, while travel volume continues to grow year-on-year, resulting in a tighter supply-demand balance [1][3]. - The industry is adjusting its strategies in response to market changes, focusing on revenue management to avoid excessive price competition, particularly among the three major airlines [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The industry supply-demand structure is expected to continue optimizing over the next few years, with an average annual growth rate of 3% in supply (ASK) projected from 2026 to 2028, while demand (RPK) is anticipated to maintain a growth rate of over 5% due to increasing travel population and economic recovery [5]. Group 4: Recommended Stocks - The company recommends China Eastern Airlines (00670) for H-shares and suggests Huaxia Airlines (002928.SZ), Juneyao Airlines (603885.SH), and Spring Airlines (601021.SH) for A-shares [6].

Core Viewpoint - The aviation and airport sector experienced a slight increase of 0.01% on October 16, with HNA Holding leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3916.23, up 0.1%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13086.41, down 0.25 [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - HNA Holding closed at 1.70, up 1.80%, with a trading volume of 7.57 million shares and a transaction value of 1.268 billion [1]. - China Eastern Airlines closed at 4.45, up 1.37%, with a trading volume of 1.857 million shares and a transaction value of 824 million [1]. - China Southern Airlines closed at 6.26, down 0.63%, with a trading volume of 801,400 shares and a transaction value of 505 million [1]. - Xiamen Airport closed at 14.61, down 0.20%, with a trading volume of 15,700 shares and a transaction value of 22.9132 million [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector saw a net inflow of 77.165 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 196 million. However, speculative funds experienced a net outflow of 273 million [2][3]. - China National Airlines had a net inflow of 126 million from institutional investors, representing 14.80% of its total capital flow [3]. - HNA Holding experienced a net inflow of 99.195 million from institutional investors, accounting for 7.82% of its total capital flow [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4][7]. Core Insights - The aviation industry is experiencing a recovery, with September data showing a 4.6% year-on-year increase in passenger transport volume, reaching approximately 62.7 million passengers [4]. - Domestic capacity increased by 1.0% year-on-year, while domestic passenger flow grew by 3.6% [4]. - The average aircraft utilization rate in September was 7.8 hours per day, reflecting a 0.6% increase year-on-year [4]. - Airlines are increasing capacity, with passenger turnover growth outpacing capacity growth [4]. - The report highlights significant growth in low-cost carriers, particularly Spring Airlines, which saw a 21% increase in capacity [4]. - The international market is recovering, with some airlines exceeding pre-pandemic levels in flight frequency [4]. Summary by Sections September Data Overview - In September, the total passenger transport volume was approximately 62.7 million, a 4.6% increase from the previous year [4]. - Domestic capacity (ASK) for major airlines showed varied growth: China Eastern Airlines (+4%), Southern Airlines (+4%), and Spring Airlines (+21%) [4]. - The average passenger load factor for Spring Airlines was the highest at 91.8%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 percentage points [4]. Domestic Market Analysis - The domestic market is balanced in terms of supply and demand, with major airlines showing single-digit growth [4]. - Year-on-year changes in RPK for major airlines included: China Eastern Airlines (+6%), Southern Airlines (+4%), and Spring Airlines (+23%) [4]. International Market Analysis - The international market is seeing further recovery, with significant growth from Spring Airlines and China Eastern Airlines [4]. - Year-on-year changes in ASK compared to 2019 showed China Eastern Airlines (+5%) and Spring Airlines (+131%) [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the aviation industry is at a turning point, with airlines expected to see significant improvements in profitability [4]. - Recommended stocks include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and others, based on strong supply and demand dynamics [4][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation transportation sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The aviation sector is showing signs of recovery, with expectations for continued improvement in the fourth quarter and the medium to long term, driven by a rebound in business travel demand and a favorable pricing environment [1][4]. - The supply growth in the industry remains constrained, supporting long-term supply-demand improvements [3][4]. - The report recommends focusing on airlines with potential for sustained growth, specifically highlighting China National Aviation (H), Huaxia Airlines, and Spring Airlines as top picks [1][9]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In September, the three major airlines (China Southern, China Eastern, and Air China) saw a slight slowdown in capacity growth at 3.0%, while passenger load factors increased by 2.7 percentage points to 85.6% [1]. - Spring Airlines experienced a significant capacity increase of 21.1%, maintaining a leading load factor of 91.8% [2]. Pricing and Revenue - Domestic ticket prices turned positive in September, increasing by 3.0% year-on-year, following a decline of 6.5% in July and August [1][4]. - The report anticipates that the improvement in revenue levels will continue into the fourth quarter, supported by a low base and effective revenue management by airlines [4]. Supply Constraints - As of September 2025, the total net addition of passenger aircraft among the major airlines was only 84, reflecting a growth of just 2.7% compared to the end of 2024 [3]. - The tightening of flight schedules is expected to persist, with a projected overall decrease of 1.6% in domestic flight slots for the upcoming winter-spring season [3]. Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for profitability in the aviation sector, particularly as oil prices decline, which may alleviate cost pressures for airlines [4]. - Specific stock recommendations include Huaxia Airlines (target price 13.65), Spring Airlines (target price 67.80), and China Southern Airlines (target price 7.35) [9][22].