Core Viewpoint - Huaxia Airlines (002928) announced changes to its fundraising project, including a reduction in the number of aircraft to be acquired and a shift in the implementation entity for the project [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Fundraising Project Changes - The company will change the plan to "introduce 4 A320 series aircraft" to "introduce 2 A320 series aircraft" [1] - The implementation entity for the fundraising project will be changed from Huaxia Airlines to its wholly-owned subsidiary, Yunfei Aircraft Leasing (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. [1] Financial Adjustments - The originally planned investment of 487 million yuan for "purchasing 14 spare engines" will be adjusted to fund the "introduction of 5 C909 series aircraft" [1] - The total amount for the revised fundraising project is 925 million yuan, which accounts for 38.39% of the net fundraising amount [1] Approval Process - The changes will require approval from the company's shareholders' meeting [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation transportation sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The aviation industry is expected to benefit from a strong summer travel season, with airlines likely to realize pricing and profit elasticity [2][5]. - The industry has shown a steady increase in capacity and passenger load factors, indicating a positive trend in operational performance [3][4]. - Airlines are anticipated to enter a profit cycle due to low supply growth and improved revenue management, alongside the appreciation of the Renminbi [2][5]. Summary by Sections Passenger Load Factors - In May, the three major airlines reported a passenger load factor of 84.1%, up 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, with capacity increasing by 6.0% [3][11]. - Spring Airlines achieved a load factor exceeding 90%, reflecting strong operational performance [4]. - The overall passenger load factor for the combined three major airlines, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines was 84.6%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [11]. Revenue and Pricing - The report indicates that the average ticket price has been rising for eight consecutive weeks, suggesting a positive revenue outlook for the summer peak season [2][5]. - The domestic route average ticket price was reported at 693 RMB, showing a significant improvement compared to previous weeks [5]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares in several airlines, including China National Aviation (753 HK), China Eastern Airlines (670 HK), and Spring Airlines (601021 CH), among others, with target prices set for each [9][25]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these companies indicate a favorable investment outlook [25][27].

南方航空（600029）及所属子公司5月客运运力投入同比上升4.99%，旅客周转量（按收入客公里计， 下同）同比上升8.43%，客座率为85.91%，同比上升2.73个百分点。 中国国航（601111）及所属子公司客运运力投入同比上升4.5%，旅客周转量同比上升8.4%，平均客座 率为81.3%，同比上升2.9个百分点。 春秋航空（601021）客运运力同比上升11.49%，旅客周转量同比上升11.66%，客座率91.07%。 近日，多家上市航司陆续披露了5月运营情况，运力、旅客周转量等数据整体同比增长，显示持续向 好。 上市航司5月运营数据向好 客运方面，中国东航（600115）5月客运运力投入（按可用座公里计，下同）同比上升9.27%，旅客周 转量（按客运人公里计）同比上升15.43%，客座率为85.39%，同比上升4.56个百分点。 2025年一季度，上市航司业绩出现分化。春秋航空、吉祥航空、海航控股（600221）和华夏航空 （002928）实现盈利，中国国航、中国东航、南方航空仍未扭亏。 一季报盈利的航司中，春秋航空实现营业收入53.17亿元，同比增长2.88%，归母净利润6.77亿元，同比 下滑1 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The shipping rates on the Asia-Brazil route have surged by 100% due to a shortage of available vessels and containers, with rates reaching $3,300 per container [2][12] - The global new ship order volume has dropped to a four-year low, with only 439 vessels ordered in the first four months of 2025, a significant decrease from 980 vessels in the same period of 2024 [2][13] - During the Dragon Boat Festival in 2025, civil aviation passenger volume reached 5.63 million, with a total of 101 new international air cargo routes opened in the first five months [2][14] - The express delivery industry saw a 15.4% year-on-year increase in package volume during the Dragon Boat Festival, with a total of 1.511 billion packages collected nationwide [2][21] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hot Events - The Asia-Brazil shipping rates increased by 100% due to a shortage of vessels and containers, influenced by trade policies and seasonal demand [12] - The civil aviation passenger volume during the Dragon Boat Festival reached 5.63 million, with 101 new international air cargo routes opened [14] - The express delivery industry experienced a 15.4% year-on-year growth in package volume during the Dragon Boat Festival [21] 2. High-Frequency Data Tracking - In May 2025, domestic cargo flight operations decreased by 6.76%, while international flights increased by 26.98% [33] - The shipping price index for domestic trade decreased, while dry bulk freight rates increased [41] - The express delivery business volume in April 2025 rose by 19.10% year-on-year, with revenue increasing by 10.80% [52] 3. Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [4] - Attention to low-altitude economy investment opportunities, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [4] - Investment opportunities in the cruise and ferry sectors, recommending Bohai Ferry and Haixia Co [4] - E-commerce and express delivery investment opportunities, recommending SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda [4] - Investment opportunities in the aviation sector, recommending China National Aviation, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the transportation sector [8] Core Views - The report is optimistic about the aviation sector, anticipating a recovery in industry prosperity driven by the summer travel peak and favorable oil and exchange rates [2][28] - It recommends high-dividend Hong Kong-listed road stocks due to stable performance and low Hibor rates supporting dividend valuations [2] - The report notes increased volatility in the shipping sector, particularly in container shipping, while highlighting the need to focus on companies with stable earnings and high dividend yields [2] Aviation Sector - The report highlights strong demand during the May Day holiday, with daily passenger volume averaging 2.23 million, a year-on-year increase of 11.8% [20] - Domestic flight ticket prices have improved, with an average price of 730 RMB, up 0.8% year-on-year [15] - The supply of aircraft is expected to grow slowly, with a projected increase of only 2.8% in the passenger fleet by the end of 2024 [21] - Recommended stocks include China National Aviation, China Eastern Airlines, and Huaxia Airlines, which are expected to benefit from supply-demand improvements [28] Airport Sector - Airports are experiencing high growth in passenger traffic, particularly in southern China, with Baiyun Airport and Shenzhen Airport seeing year-on-year increases of 26.3% and 23.5% respectively [29] - The report emphasizes the need for airports to enhance their non-aeronautical revenue generation capabilities [37] - It suggests focusing on airports with lower capital expenditure, such as Capital Airport, for better investment value [37] Shipping Sector - Container shipping rates have increased significantly, with the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index rising by 18.4% month-on-month in May [4] - The report anticipates further increases in shipping volumes and rates in June due to the easing of tariffs and seasonal demand [39] - It notes that while the crude oil tanker market is improving due to OPEC+ production increases, the dry bulk and product tanker markets remain weak [38] Road and Rail Sector - The report indicates that the road sector is benefiting from lower Hibor rates, which support dividend yields, and suggests focusing on high-dividend stocks like Wuhu Highway and Zhejiang Hu-Hangzhou-Ningbo [5] - The railway freight sector is experiencing weak demand, particularly for coal transport, with expectations of a recovery only in late June [5] Logistics and Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is facing competitive pressures, with a year-on-year increase in parcel volume of 19.1% in April, but prices are declining [68] - The report suggests monitoring the upcoming peak season for potential changes in volume and pricing dynamics [68] - It highlights the need for cross-border logistics to adapt to evolving tariff conditions [68]

Core Viewpoint - The civil aviation market is approaching a peak in passenger flow as summer approaches, raising questions about the performance of regional airlines and smaller airports during the upcoming travel season [1] Group 1: Challenges Facing Regional Airlines - Resource limitations are a major constraint on the development of regional airlines, with many small cities experiencing slow growth in passenger markets and operational issues for regional airlines and airports [1][10] - Passengers often prefer high-speed rail over regional flights due to factors such as safety, comfort, and convenience, which impacts the demand for regional air travel [1][10] Group 2: Current State of Regional Aviation - The Civil Aviation Administration of China has been optimizing policies to promote regional aviation, resulting in an increase in the number of regional routes and improved connectivity for cities with regional airports [11] - As of the end of 2024, the number of domestic transport airports in China reached 263, with a total passenger throughput of approximately 1.46 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.86% [12] Group 3: Future Prospects for Regional Airlines - The potential for growth in regional aviation is significant, with expectations that the number of airports in China will exceed 270 by 2025, primarily consisting of regional airports [13] - The development of regional airlines requires efficient collaboration between airlines and airports, as well as support from government policies to enhance connectivity and service offerings [15] Group 4: Financial Performance of Regional Airlines - Huaxia Airlines reported total assets of approximately 20.7 billion CNY and revenue of about 6.7 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.98% [16] - The airline's net profit attributable to shareholders reached approximately 268 million CNY, a significant increase of 127.77% compared to the previous year [16] Group 5: Government Support for Regional Aviation - In January 2024, the Ministry of Finance and the Civil Aviation Administration revised the subsidy management measures for regional airlines, focusing on enhancing support for routes operated by regional aircraft [19]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the logistics and transportation industry, particularly the integration of unmanned vehicles and the profitability of airlines [1][2]. Key Points on Unmanned Vehicles - Unmanned vehicle procurement is expected to more than double, leading to cost reductions in the last-mile delivery segment [1]. - Forecasted unmanned vehicle scales for 2024 are as follows: - SF Express: 800 units - ZTO Express: over 1000 units - YTO Express: 500 units - Shentong Express: 200-300 units - By 2025, leading express companies are anticipated to see unmanned vehicle scales double [1]. - The price of the E-series unmanned logistics vehicle from Jiushi Intelligent has dropped to 19,800 yuan, with a monthly subscription service for FSD starting at 1,800 yuan [1]. - Different procurement strategies are being adopted by express companies: - SF Express is utilizing a leasing model for quicker deployment. - The Tongda system is supporting franchisees in procuring unmanned vehicles to reduce costs [1]. - There is an expectation for further opening of road rights, which would enhance cost reductions in last-mile delivery through unmanned vehicles [1]. Key Points on Airline Profitability - The domestic airline revenue management strategy has begun to show effects, with domestic ticket prices experiencing year-on-year growth [3]. - It is projected that the year-on-year decline in seat revenue for listed airlines in Q2 will narrow to 3%-4% [3]. - Due to OPEC+ continuing to increase production unexpectedly from May to July, it is anticipated that airline unit fuel costs will decrease by approximately 18% year-on-year by Q2 2025 [3]. - The correlation between ticket prices and fuel costs suggests that the three major airlines are likely to achieve positive profits in Q2, with private airlines also expected to show year-on-year growth [3]. - There may be a decline in volume and price data following the exam period and the Dragon Boat Festival, which could present a reverse layout opportunity [3]. - Recommendations include: - Juneyao Airlines - Huaxia Airlines - Spring Airlines - Air China H - China Southern Airlines H [3]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the profitability turning point for airlines and the potential for unmanned vehicles to significantly impact cost structures in logistics [1][3].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share airport and aviation sector experienced a decline at the beginning of trading, with several airlines, including Juneyao Airlines, falling over 3% [1] Company Summary - Juneyao Airlines saw a drop of more than 3% in its stock price [1] - Other airlines such as Spring Airlines, Air China, Southern Airlines, Huaxia Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines also followed the downward trend [1]

Core Viewpoint - The average annual growth rate of China's civil aviation passenger supply (available seat kilometers, ASK) is expected to be around 3.1% from 2025 to 2028, significantly lower than the 15.4% growth rate from 2009 to 2019, indicating a solid foundation for the aviation cycle to start [1][12][64]. Supply Growth Factors - The introduction of tariffs may further suppress the growth rate of China's civil aviation supply. Although the tariff rate has significantly decreased compared to April 2025, it still impacts the willingness of Chinese airlines to introduce new Boeing aircraft, potentially leading to a longer recovery cycle for aircraft manufacturers' production capacity [3][6]. - As of April 2025, Chinese airlines have nearly 600 aircraft orders from Boeing and Airbus, with most deliveries concentrated between 2025 and 2027. However, there is a high uncertainty regarding delivery timelines, with an expected 25% of aircraft deliveries being delayed in the next three years [3][13][20]. - The impact of leased aircraft on China's aviation supply is expected to gradually diminish, as major airlines have substantial aircraft orders and are less inclined to expand their fleets through leasing due to rising leasing costs [3][43]. Aircraft Retirement Trends - The volume of aircraft retirements remains at a peak level, with the industry entering a phase of high aircraft retirements due to aging fleets and concentrated lease expirations. The retirement rate is projected to stabilize around 2.5% in the coming years [4][51]. - Factors affecting aviation supply include aircraft utilization rates, which are expected to gradually improve, and a trend of decreasing average seat numbers per aircraft due to the increasing proportion of smaller aircraft [4][59]. Tariff Impacts - The tariffs imposed on U.S. imports have increased the costs for Chinese airlines to acquire Boeing aircraft, potentially leading to a decrease in demand for new aircraft and delays in orders [6][30]. - The global supply chain for aircraft manufacturing remains tight, with tariffs exacerbating the situation by increasing the costs of imported components, thereby extending the aircraft maintenance cycles [8][7]. Production Capacity and Delivery Issues - The production capacity of Boeing, Airbus, and COMAC is affected by global supply chain constraints and tariffs, leading to slower recovery in production capacity and delivery timelines [7][20]. - The delivery peak for Airbus aircraft is expected in 2026, while Boeing's delivery peak is anticipated in 2027, with significant uncertainty surrounding the delivery schedules due to production capacity issues [21][34]. Market Dynamics - The average annual growth rate of the passenger fleet is projected to be 2.8% from 2025 to 2028, a significant decrease from pre-2020 levels, driven by rationalized aircraft acquisitions and the peak retirement phase in the aviation market [61][64]. - The demand for domestic aircraft, particularly the C919, is expected to grow, but actual delivery timelines may be extended due to production capacity constraints and tariff impacts [35][38].

Group 1 - The A-share airport and shipping sector has strengthened, with Huaxia Airlines rising over 7% [1] - Both Juneyao Airlines and China National Aviation have increased by more than 3% [1] - China Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines also experienced gains [1]