证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·非银金融 非银金融行业跟踪周报 证券行业并购稳步推进；保险业总资产突破 40 万亿 增持（维持） 相关研究 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 风险提示：1）宏观经济不及预期；2）政策趋紧抑制行业创新；3）市场 竞争加剧风险。 2025 年 11 月 23 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 罗宇康 执业证书：S0600525090002 luoyk@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 2024/11/25 2025/3/25 2025/7/23 2025/11/20 非银金融 沪深300 《中金公司拟换股合并东兴证券、信 达证券，资产规模将破万亿元》 2025-11-20 《金融科技 2026 年投资策略-- 短期 看市场活跃的持续性，中期关注金融 IT》 2025-11-17 东吴证券研究所 1 / 15 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 非银行金融子行业近期表现：最近 5 个交易日（2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic vision and outlook of Dongfang Caifu Securities Research Institute under the leadership of Meng Jie, emphasizing a technology-driven and data-empowered approach to research in the A-share market, with a focus on understanding the Chinese market dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Strategic Transformation - Meng Jie highlights the transition from being a top analyst to a research institute leader, focusing on team success rather than individual achievement [2]. - The "2.0 Launch" strategy aims to adapt to the new normal of the industry, emphasizing investor returns and shifting the business model from "sell-side research" to "buy-side advisory" [2][3]. - The research institute is committed to enhancing its deep research capabilities and integrating data, traffic, and financial technology to build a differentiated competitive edge [3][5]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to maintain a slow bull market pattern, with the index around 4000 points entering a consolidation phase [6]. - Key drivers for market recovery include supportive fiscal and monetary policies, sustained institutional investment, and technological advancements in the AI sector [6]. - The transition of the Chinese economy towards innovation-driven growth, particularly in sectors like new energy and high-end manufacturing, is seen as a foundation for long-term market strength [6]. Group 3: Investment Directions - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes three main investment themes: emerging industries and new tracks, disruptive upgrades in traditional industries, and the dual drive of technology empowerment and domestic demand [7]. - Emerging fields such as quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, and low-altitude economy are expected to reach critical points for commercialization in the next five to ten years [7]. - Traditional industries are undergoing significant transformations towards high-end, intelligent, and green development, creating substantial market opportunities [7][8]. Group 4: Consumer Sector Insights - Traditional core assets, particularly in consumption, are entering historically low valuation zones, indicating increasing allocation value [8]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to boost domestic consumption, with policies likely to support consumer spending and enhance long-term confidence [8]. - The recovery of traditional consumption is expected to be gradual and structurally differentiated, with new consumption sectors showing stronger growth resilience [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The market is focused on the expected development trends for 2026, with a consensus emerging that A-shares present structural opportunities and that the macroeconomic environment will continue to show signs of recovery [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Major securities firms predict China's economic growth for 2026 will be in the range of 4.9% to 5.0%, with a "front low, back high" growth pattern expected [3]. - The overall judgment from economists is that the macroeconomic environment will be "stable and improving, with structural optimization" [2][3]. - Export resilience and ongoing industrial upgrades are viewed as key supports for the macroeconomy, with expectations of strong export performance in 2026 [2]. Group 2: Policy and Structural Changes - The core direction for policy in 2026 will focus on structural optimization and a balanced approach to supply and demand [3]. - There is an expectation of moderate expansion in fiscal policy, which will support the conclusion of the deleveraging cycle [2][3]. - The need to address weak domestic demand remains a critical issue for 2026, with price stability being essential for growth [4]. Group 3: Investment Themes - The investment focus for A-shares in 2026 is expected to shift from being driven by sentiment, funds, and valuation to being driven by performance verification [5]. - Key areas of interest include technology growth, external demand breakthroughs, and cyclical recovery [5][6]. - The AI revolution is entering a critical application phase, which is anticipated to support the performance of Chinese assets [6]. Group 4: Sectoral Insights - Three main structural themes for 2026 include recovery trades in cyclical sectors, technology industry trends particularly in AI, and the enhancement of manufacturing influence [6][7]. - The potential for Chinese companies to improve their position in the global value chain is highlighted, with a focus on upgrading traditional manufacturing and expanding global presence [7].

Core Viewpoint - The market is focused on the expected development trends for 2026, with consensus emerging around structural opportunities in the A-share market and a continued recovery in the macro economy [1][3]. Group 1: Policy and Innovation - The annual strategy meetings of various securities firms highlight "new" and "seizing opportunities" as high-frequency keywords, reflecting insights into new market trends and opportunities [2]. - Themes from different firms include "Embarking on a New Journey" by CITIC Securities and "Riding the New Wave" by Huatai Securities, indicating a collective focus on innovation and market dynamics [2]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Outlook - Securities firms express a consensus on a "stable and improving, structurally optimized" macroeconomic outlook for 2026, with expectations of strong export resilience and continued industrial upgrades [3][4]. - Economic growth predictions for 2026 range from 4.9% to 5.0%, with a "front low, back high" growth pattern anticipated [3]. - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a moderately expansionary stance, supporting the end of the deleveraging cycle [3]. Group 3: Investment Themes - The A-share market is expected to shift from being driven by "sentiment, funds, and valuation" in 2025 to "performance verification" in 2026, with a focus on technology growth, external demand, and cyclical recovery [5][6]. - Analysts emphasize that the "performance is king" narrative will dominate, with a potential for the A-share market to reach new highs due to increased allocations from both domestic and foreign investors [5][6]. - Key investment themes include recovery trades in cyclical sectors, technology industry trends, and the enhancement of manufacturing influence [6].

Core Viewpoint - The media industry is the only sector to receive net inflows of capital, while the overall market experiences significant outflows, particularly in the technology and materials sectors [1][2]. Capital Flow Summary - The main capital outflow from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets today amounts to 985.55 billion yuan, with the ChiNext board seeing a net outflow of 377.44 billion yuan and the CSI 300 index experiencing a net outflow of 267.85 billion yuan [1][2]. - Among the 31 primary industries, all experienced declines, with the comprehensive, non-ferrous metals, and power equipment sectors dropping over 5%. Other sectors like basic chemicals, electronics, and communications fell over 4% [2]. - Only the media industry saw a net inflow of 13.26 billion yuan, while the electronic, power equipment, and computer sectors had the largest outflows, each exceeding 100 billion yuan. Other sectors such as non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, machinery, communications, and non-bank financials also faced significant outflows, each exceeding 42 billion yuan [2]. Individual Stock Performance - In individual stock performance, 37 stocks saw net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with 6 stocks receiving over 3 billion yuan. The leading stock in net inflow was the photolithography concept stock, Kaimete Gas, with 7.75 billion yuan [3]. - The photolithography concept stocks rose against the market trend, with stocks like Guofeng New Materials hitting the daily limit, and Kaimete Gas reaching its limit during trading [3]. - AI application concept stock Yidian Tianxia saw a limit increase with a net inflow of 6.54 billion yuan, with significant buying from specific trading desks [4]. Tail-End Capital Flow - At the market close, there was a net outflow of 143.68 billion yuan, with the ChiNext board experiencing a net outflow of 57.56 billion yuan and the CSI 300 index seeing a net outflow of 41.92 billion yuan [8]. - Among individual stocks, 19 stocks had net inflows exceeding 20 million yuan at the close, with the leading stock being Changxin Bochuang, which had a net inflow of 1.13 billion yuan [8]. - A total of 22 stocks had net outflows exceeding 80 million yuan, with 13 stocks seeing outflows exceeding 1 billion yuan [9].

Core Insights - The communication industry is experiencing a sustained growth trend in overall performance, with profitability steadily improving before the third quarter of 2025 [1][2] - The North American AI sector has significantly outperformed the market, leading the growth among various segments [1] Industry Performance - The total revenue of the communication industry reached 19,549 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1,943 billion yuan, up 9.0% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2025, the industry revenue was 6,313 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 567 billion yuan, increasing by 12.1% year-on-year [2] Segment Analysis - Operators showed stable growth with revenue growth of 0.6% and 1.1% year-on-year, and net profit growth of 4.3% and 2.1% respectively, indicating a steady improvement in profit margins [3] - The North American AI sector exhibited remarkable growth, with revenue increasing by 71.5% and 71.1% year-on-year, and net profit soaring by 129.5% and 137.3% [3] - The domestic computing sector reported revenue growth of 22.0% and 3.2%, with net profit growth of 38.8% and 60.6%, highlighting significant performance disparities across the industry chain [3] - The Internet of Things (IoT) sector achieved revenue growth of 15.9% and 9.7%, with net profit growth of 37.5% and 26.7%, indicating steady performance [3] - The BeiDou sector saw revenue growth of 36.0% and 58.5%, with net profit growth of 74.8% and 149.9%, with some companies turning losses into profits [3] - The military communication sector faced challenges, with revenue declining by 5.7% and increasing by only 1.1%, and net profit dropping significantly by 76.9% and 51.0% [3] - The submarine cable sector reported revenue growth of 12.0% and 9.8%, with net profit remaining relatively stable [3]

Group 1: AI Industry Development Index - The "2025 AI Industry Development Index" is set to be officially released in December 2025, aiming to provide insights into the development of the AI industry in China [1][2] - The index will cover multiple dimensions including R&D, technological performance, investment, and industrial applications of AI [2] Group 2: AI Talent Development - AI talent cultivation is recognized as a strategic consensus for national competitiveness, with many countries integrating AI education into their national curriculum [3] - The 2025-2026 VEX Robotics Asia Open International Signature Competition has been announced, aimed at fostering youth interest in science and technology [4][5] Group 3: AI Product Innovations - The launch of the Hive Technology's AI audio glasses with upgraded features allows for a more intuitive interaction with AI, enhancing user experience [7][8] - The AI audio glasses support features like "full-scene recording transcription" and "cross-application AI real-time translation," which can significantly improve efficiency in various scenarios [8][9] Group 4: AI Security Challenges - The rapid development of AI brings about security challenges that extend beyond traditional network and data security, encompassing content and application security [10] - 360 Digital Security Group has introduced a new paradigm called "modeling by modeling" to address AI security risks, focusing on reliability, trustworthiness, benevolence, and controllability [11]

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a significant downturn on November 21, with major indices declining, particularly the ChiNext Index which fell over 4% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The ChiNext 50 ETF (159949) closed at 1.384 CNY, down 3.89% with a turnover rate of 9.89% and a trading volume of 2.429 billion CNY [1][2] - The ETF has seen a net inflow of 489 million CNY over the past five trading days, indicating positive investor sentiment despite the market decline [2][3] Group 2: ETF Details - As of November 20, 2025, the ChiNext 50 ETF has a total circulation scale of 25.25 billion CNY, leading among similar ETFs [2][3] - The top ten holdings of the ChiNext 50 ETF include leading companies such as CATL, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Dongfang Caifu, reflecting a focus on high-growth sectors [3] Group 3: AI Industry Insights - NVIDIA reported a quarterly revenue of 57 billion USD, a 62% year-over-year increase, and projected next quarter revenue to reach 65 billion USD, addressing concerns about AI asset price bubbles [4] - Analysts suggest that the AI industry is still in its early development stage, with significant long-term growth potential despite current high valuations [5] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The ChiNext 50 ETF (159949) is recommended as an efficient investment tool for those optimistic about the long-term growth of China's technology sector [5] - Investors are advised to consider dollar-cost averaging strategies to mitigate short-term volatility risks while monitoring the performance of index constituent stocks [5]

从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，国联基金旗下1只基金重仓东方财富。国联金融鑫选3个月持有混合A（013659）三季度持有 股数6.77万股，占基金净值比例为3.89%，位居第七大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮亏损失约5.21万元。 连续6天下跌期间浮亏损失12.39万元。 11月21日，东方财富跌3.2%，截至发稿，报23.30元/股，成交71.57亿元，换手率2.27%，总市值3682.34 亿元。东方财富股价已经连续6天下跌，区间累计跌幅7.28%。 截至发稿，熊健累计任职时间3年314天，现任基金资产总规模4722.04万元，任职期间最佳基金回报 42.85%， 任职期间最差基金回报-32.1%。 资料显示，东方财富信息股份有限公司位于上海市徐汇区宛平南路88号东方财富大厦，成立日期2005年 1月20日，上市日期2010年3月19日，公司主营业务涉及证券业务、金融电子商务服务业务、金融数据服 务业务及互联网广告服务业务等。主营业务收入构成为：证券服务76.99%，金融电子商务服务 20.65%，金融数据服务等2.36%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | | | 涨幅% ↑ | 最新 | 消费 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 861520 | 微盘股 | 1 | | -3.76 | 3217.48 | -125.64 | | 932000 | 中证2000 | 3 | | -3.22 | 2968.05 | -98.72 | | 899050 | 北证50 | 1 | | -3.14 | 1400.18 | -45.36 | | 000698 | 科创100 | 1 | 喜 | -3.04 | 1313.05 | -41.15 | | 399006 | 创业板指 | 年 | 章 | -2.89 | 2954.56 | -87.78 | | 000852 | 中证1000 | 1 | 血 | -2.84 | 7132.20 | -208.21 | | 399001 | 深证成指 | | 育 | -2.62 | 12640.67 | -340.15 | | 000688 | 科创50 | 1 | 10 | -2.53 | 1294.58 | -33.60 | | 800000 ...