研究报告 Research Report 23 Oct 2024 中际旭创 Zhongji Innolight (300308 CH) 业绩略低于预期，持续看好 800G、1.6T 需求及硅光渗透率提升 NI Miss, Optimistic about 800G/1.6T Ramping up [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------|-------|-------|---------------|--------------------------------|--------------------| | [Table_Info 维持优于大市 ] \n评级 | | | | | Maintain OUTPERFORM \n优于大市 | OUTPERFORM | | 现价 | | | | | | Rmb170.00 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhongji Innolight (300308 SZ) [2][3] Core Views - Q3 2024 revenue reached 6 51 billion yuan up 115 2% YoY and 9 4% QoQ Net profit attributable to parent company was 1 394 billion yuan up 104 4% YoY and 3 3% QoQ [1] - Q3 financial performance was impacted by RMB appreciation with financial expenses of 72 93 million yuan compared to -40 17 million yuan in Q2 resulting in a 113 million yuan impact on Q3 net profit [1] - Gross margin and net margin for Q3 were 33 64% and 22 48% respectively both showing YoY improvement [1] - Inventory at the end of Q3 was 7 153 billion yuan up from 6 169 billion yuan at the end of the previous quarter driven by increased orders for high-end optical modules [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the 800G 1 6T optical module upgrade cycle with strong growth prospects in the AI-driven market [1][2] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 23 524 billion yuan with a YoY growth of 119 5% Net profit attributable to parent company is expected to reach 5 59 billion yuan up 157 2% YoY [3] - EPS for 2024E is forecasted at 4 99 yuan per share with a P E ratio of 34 1x [3] - Revenue growth is expected to continue with 2025E and 2026E revenues projected at 37 367 billion yuan and 48 038 billion yuan respectively [3] - Net profit for 2025E and 2026E is estimated at 9 784 billion yuan and 12 987 billion yuan respectively [3] Industry Outlook - The optical module industry is accelerating its iteration cycle with AI driving demand for higher-speed products such as 800G and 1 6T [1] - The industry is expected to further consolidate with leading companies like Zhongji Innolight benefiting from their technological edge and close customer relationships [1] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the 800G 1 6T upgrade cycle with strong growth potential in the AI-driven market [1][2] Financial Ratios - ROE for 2024E is projected at 28 4% up from 15 2% in 2023A [3] - Gross margin for 2024E is expected to be 34 6% with net margin at 23 8% [3] - P B ratio for 2024E is forecasted at 9 7x down from 13 4x in 2023A [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected revenue of 259.1/390.2/478.3 billion yuan and net profit of 55.3/87.7/109.0 billion yuan for 2024-2026, corresponding to a PE ratio of 29/18/15 [1] Core Views - The company achieved rapid growth in revenue and net profit in Q3 2024, with revenue reaching 17.313 billion yuan, up 146.26% YoY, and net profit reaching 3.753 billion yuan, up 189.59% YoY [1] - AI industry development has driven the company's performance, with increased shipments of high-end products like 800G, leading to improved gross and net profit margins [1] - The company is positioned as a top-tier global optical module supplier, with strong customer relationships and the ability to mass-produce high-speed optical modules [1] - The 1.6T optical module is expected to ramp up in 2025, driven by GB200 applications, which will significantly enhance the company's performance and profitability [1] - Silicon photonics solutions are expected to become a key advantage for the company, with the global silicon photonics module market projected to reach nearly 8 billion USD by 2026 [1] Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue for 2024E is projected to be 259.14 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 141.78% YoY, and net profit is expected to reach 55.3 billion yuan, up 154.44% YoY [4] - Gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 33.32%, up 1.57 percentage points YoY, while net margin was 22.36%, up 3.69 percentage points YoY [1] - The company's ROE (return on equity) is expected to rise to 27.77% in 2024E, up from 15.24% in 2023 [4] Industry and Product Analysis - The company's 800G optical modules are expected to maintain market share in 2025, with demand driven by Ethernet data center construction [1] - Silicon photonics modules offer advantages such as high integration, low cost, and low power consumption, with the company already developing 1.6T silicon photonics solutions and self-developed chips [1] - The company's self-developed silicon photonics chips are expected to ensure production capacity and further improve profitability [1] Market Sentiment - Market-related reports show a strong "Buy" sentiment, with 117 "Buy" ratings in the past six months and an average score of 1.00, indicating a consistent "Buy" recommendation [8]

Key Points Industry and Company - **Industry**: The company operates in the optical communication industry, specifically focusing on silicon photonics and optical modules. - **Company**: The company is a leading player in the industry, with a strong focus on research and development in silicon photonics technology. Core Views and Arguments - **Revenue Growth**: Q3 revenue experienced a year-over-year growth of 9-10%, driven by strong order demand. However, delivery gaps were significant due to material shortages. - **Gross Margin**: Gross margin remained high and stable, with a Q3 consolidated gross margin of 33.6% compared to 33.4% in Q2. - **Net Profit**: Net profit increased by over 80 million yuan compared to the previous quarter, reaching 1.465 billion yuan. The appreciation of the RMB in late September had a significant impact on the company's financials, leading to exchange losses of over 80 million yuan in Q3. - **CPO Layout**: The company has made significant investments in R&D for silicon photonics chips, including 400G, 800G, and 1.6T. It also possesses the technology to develop CPO silicon photonics engines and is actively involved in R&D. - **Material Shortages**: The company has been affected by material shortages, particularly in DSP and optical chips. However, it has adopted a hedging strategy to mitigate the impact. - **Domestic Suppliers**: The company is actively working with domestic chip manufacturers and has already started using some domestic CW sources in certain models. - **Silicon Photonics**: The company plans to increase the proportion of silicon photonics shipments, particularly in 800G and 1.6T solutions. It expects to see a significant increase in silicon photonics shipments in Q4 2024 and 2025. - **1.6T Silicon Photonics**: The company expects to start shipping 1.6T silicon photonics solutions in Q4 2024, particularly in December. - **Exchange Rate Fluctuations**: The company experienced exchange losses of over 80 million yuan in Q3 due to the appreciation of the RMB. However, this was a paper loss and not an actual loss for the company. - **Capacity Expansion**: The company is continuously investing in capacity expansion, both domestically and overseas, to meet the growing demand for high-speed products like 800G and 1.6T. - **Material Shortages**: The company expects material shortages to continue in 2024, with a potential缓解 in the first half of 2025. It plans to increase its procurement of EML in 2025 to improve delivery capabilities. - **CPO**: The company is actively involved in the development of CPO products, both independently and in collaboration with customers. - **Excess Capacity**: The company is considering increasing capacity in 2025 and 2026 to meet the growing demand for high-speed products. - **Material Price Increases**: The company has confidence in passing on price increases to downstream customers, particularly for key materials like EML and optical chips. - **Silicon Photonics vs. Traditional Solutions**: The company offers different solutions based on customer needs. However, 3.2T presents a greater challenge for EML. - **Expansion**: The company is expanding its production capacity in both China and Thailand to meet the growing demand for high-speed products. - **Customer Interest**: Most customers are interested in using the company's silicon photonics products, particularly in 2025. - **Material Shortages**: The company expects material shortages to continue in Q4 2024, with a potential significant improvement in Q1 2025. - **Price Transmission**: The company has confidence in passing on price increases to downstream customers, particularly for key materials like EML and optical chips. - **Co-linearity**: Most production lines can be used for both EML and silicon photonics solutions, except for some coupling processes. - **Price Negotiations**: Most customers will negotiate prices with suppliers in Q3 and Q4 2024 for 2025, with some models being priced based on the time of introduction. - **Hedging**: The company is considering using hedging products to mitigate exchange rate risks. - **Silicon Photonics vs. EML**: CW sources can save half the number of traditional EMLs and are cheaper, providing a clear advantage in the BOM. - **Silicon Photonics Supply**: The company has long-term partnerships with suppliers for traditional EML and can also find new suppliers for CW. - **Order Visibility**: The company can see some orders for Q1 2025, with strong demand expected for 800G and 1.6T products. - **Delivery Capabilities**: The company expects to improve its delivery capabilities in Q4 2024, particularly due to the increased proportion of silicon photonics shipments. - **Profitability**: The company expects to maintain stable margins in 2025, driven by strong demand for upstream chips and modules, as well as cost reduction efforts. - **Optical vs. Copper**: Optical modules are primarily used in switches and network architectures, while copper cables are used for short-distance connections. However, optical technology has the potential to enter these scenarios in the future. - **Margin Improvement**: The company's gross margin is expected to increase due to the strong demand for 400G and 800G products, as well as improvements in yield and cost reduction efforts.

证券代码：300308 证券简称：中际旭创 编号：2024-010 □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 投资者 □业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 □路演活动 关系活 □现场参观 ☑ 其他 （电话会议） 动类别 易方达基金；东方阿尔法基金；汇添富基金；交银施罗德基金；博时基 金；华安基金；兴证全球基金；海富通基金；上投摩根基金；浦银安盛 基金；华泰柏瑞基金；中欧基金；华宝基金；诺安基金；长安基金；宏 利基金；金鹰基金；南方基金；景顺长城基金；永赢基金；嘉实基金； 华富基金；国联安基金；国金基金；前海开源基金；汇丰晋信基金；招 商基金；鹏扬基金；富国基金；平安基金；泉果基金；建信基金；西部 利得基金；鹏华基金；农银汇理基金；宝盈基金；财通基金；光大保德 信基金；国海富兰克林；天弘基金；广发基金；华夏基金；长信基金； 中银基金；长城基金；新华基金；华泰保兴基金；万家基金；银河基 金；国泰基金；中金基金；申万菱信基金；国寿安保基金；长信；东 吴；招银国际；安信；鹏扬基金；海富；富国；华夏；兴全；银河；泰 康资管；华泰资管；太平资管；安联保险资管；前海人寿；泰康保险； 人寿资管；平安资管；新华资管；长江养老；大家资管； ...

Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [1][2] Core Views - The company continues to benefit from the rapid growth of high-end optical modules, with strong demand for 800G and 400G modules driven by downstream computing infrastructure construction and related capital expenditures [2] - Revenue and profitability have significantly improved, with Q3 2024 revenue reaching 6.514 billion yuan, up 115.25% YoY, and net profit reaching 1.394 billion yuan, up 104.40% YoY [2] - The company maintains a leading position in the global optical module market, ranking first in Lightcounting's 2023 global optical module manufacturer rankings [3] Financial Performance - 2024 Q3 revenue: 6.514 billion yuan, up 115.25% YoY and 9.37% QoQ [2] - 2024 Q3 net profit: 1.394 billion yuan, up 104.40% YoY and 3.34% QoQ [2] - 2024 Q1-Q3 revenue: 17.313 billion yuan, up 146.26% YoY [2] - 2024 Q1-Q3 net profit: 3.753 billion yuan, up 189.59% YoY [2] - Gross margin for 2024 Q1-Q3: 33.32%, up 1.57 pct YoY [2] - Net margin for 2024 Q1-Q3: 22.36%, up 3.70 pct YoY [2] Market Position and Expansion - The company has a strong presence in overseas markets, with overseas revenue reaching 9.472 billion yuan in H1 2024, up 172.03% YoY [3] - It has secured a leading position in the global optical module market, ranking first in Lightcounting's 2023 global optical module manufacturer rankings [3] R&D and Technological Advancements - R&D expenses for 2024 Q1-Q3: 742 million yuan, up 57.41% YoY, with an R&D expense ratio of 4.29% [4] - The company has demonstrated advanced products such as 1.6T OSFP-XD DR8+ pluggable optical modules and second-generation 800G optical modules based on 5nm DSP and silicon photonics technology [4] - It showcased 1.6T OSFP224 2XDR4 and a full series of 800G/400G silicon photonic modules at CIOE 2024 [4] Financial Forecasts - 2024E revenue: 25.379 billion yuan, up 136.8% YoY [5] - 2024E net profit: 5.140 billion yuan, up 136.5% YoY [5] - 2025E revenue: 36.424 billion yuan, up 43.5% YoY [5] - 2025E net profit: 8.219 billion yuan, up 59.9% YoY [5] - 2026E revenue: 45.340 billion yuan, up 24.5% YoY [5] - 2026E net profit: 9.026 billion yuan, up 9.8% YoY [5] Valuation Metrics - 2024E P/E: 37.1x [5] - 2025E P/E: 23.2x [5] - 2026E P/E: 21.1x [5] - 2024E P/B: 10.0x [5] - 2025E P/B: 7.1x [5] - 2026E P/B: 5.4x [5]

表决结果：7 票赞成、0 票反对、0 票弃权 二、备查文件 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整， 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 中际旭创股份有限公司(以下简称"公司"或"中际旭创") 第五届董事会第十 三次会议（以下简称"本次会议"）通知于 2024 年 10 月 11 日以传真、电子邮件等 方式发出，并于 2024 年 10 月 21 日上午 9:30 以通讯方式召开，会议由董事长刘圣先 生主持，会议应参加董事 7 人，实际参加董事 7 人，公司监事及相关人员列席了会议。 会议的召开及表决程序符合《公司法》等法律、行政法规、部门规章、规范性文件及 《公司章程》的有关规定，会议合法有效。会议审议并通过了以下议案： 一、审议通过了《关于公司 2024 年第三季度报告的议案》 根据《公司法》《公司章程》《上市公司信息披露管理办法》及其他有关规定， 公司编制了《中际旭创 2024 年第三季度报告》，报告内容能够真实、准确、完整地 反映公司的实际情况，不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏。 证券代码：300308 证券简称：中际旭创 公告编号：2024-084 中际旭创股份有限公司 ...

Revenue and Profit Growth - Revenue for the third quarter reached 6.514 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 115.25%[2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 1.394 billion yuan, up 104.40% year-on-year[2] - Revenue for the first nine months of 2024 increased by 146.26% to 17,312,601,820.15 RMB, driven by significant growth in sales of 800G and 400G high-end optical modules due to increased investment in computing infrastructure[6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company's owners grew to 8,428,919,666.37 yuan, up from 5,869,567,607.57 yuan at the start of the period[12] - Total operating revenue for the current period reached 17,312,601,820.15, a significant increase from 7,030,290,371.60 in the previous period[14] - Operating profit surged to 4,410,376,456.99, up from 1,468,848,269.47 in the prior period[15] - Net profit attributable to the parent company's shareholders was 3,752,659,170.15, compared to 1,295,867,879.63 in the previous period[15] - Basic earnings per share increased to 3.42 from 1.20 in the prior period[16] - Total comprehensive income for the period was 3,853,414,084.41, up from 1,336,491,612.35 in the prior period[16] Asset and Liability Changes - Total assets as of the end of the reporting period were 27.124 billion yuan, an increase of 35.58% compared to the end of the previous year[2] - Accounts receivable increased by 82.41% to 4.709 billion yuan due to a significant increase in sales revenue[5] - Inventory rose by 66.56% to 7.153 billion yuan, driven by increased orders for high-end optical modules[5] - Short-term borrowings increased by 1,592.63% to 1.053 billion yuan due to higher short-term bank loans[5] - Accounts payable grew by 88.06% to 3.492 billion yuan, matching the increase in sales revenue[5] - Fixed assets increased by 30.22% to 5.141 billion yuan, driven by capacity expansion and equipment purchases[5] - Deferred tax assets rose by 176.32% to 226.42 million yuan due to an increase in deductible equity incentive expenses[5] - Long-term payables increased by 3,979.82% to 867,627,236.04 RMB, as overseas subsidiaries converted external shareholder loans into equity-based long-term payables[6] - Minority shareholders' equity rose by 99.04% to 1,022,038,517.51 RMB, due to increased capital contributions from minority shareholders[6] - Total assets increased to 27,124,286,366.57 yuan, up from 20,006,747,461.32 yuan at the beginning of the period[11] - Inventory surged to 7,153,167,835.78 yuan, a significant increase from 4,294,660,216.00 yuan at the start of the period[10] - Accounts receivable rose to 4,708,725,315.87 yuan, compared to 2,581,372,127.23 yuan at the beginning of the period[10] - Short-term borrowings jumped to 1,052,733,624.39 yuan, up from 62,195,000.00 yuan at the start of the period[11] - Accounts payable increased to 3,492,239,202.21 yuan, compared to 1,856,961,520.09 yuan at the beginning of the period[11] - Fixed assets expanded to 5,140,795,815.10 yuan, compared to 3,947,627,024.73 yuan at the beginning of the period[11] - Development expenditure increased to 150,529,694.01 yuan, up from 47,989,682.05 yuan at the start of the period[11] - Long-term receivables rose to 152,165,706.49 yuan, compared to 55,213,586.25 yuan at the beginning of the period[11] - Total liabilities increased to 8,437,590,835.96 yuan, up from 5,232,248,377.49 yuan at the start of the period[12] - Total assets and owner's equity reached 27,124,286,366.57, compared to 20,006,747,461.32 in the prior period[14] - Total liabilities and owner's equity increased to 27,124,286,366.57 from 20,006,747,461.32 in the prior period[14] R&D and Development Expenditure - Development expenditure surged by 213.67% to 150.53 million yuan, reflecting continuous R&D investment[5] - R&D expenses increased by 57.41% to 741,977,641.53 RMB, reflecting the company's continued investment in research and development, including higher employee compensation and project-related material and equipment costs[6] - R&D expenses increased to 741,977,641.53 from 471,363,662.05 in the previous period[14] Cash Flow and Financing Activities - Net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 8.79% to 1,315,866,293.65 RMB, with no significant changes reported[7] - Net cash flow from investing activities saw a substantial increase of 2,873.97% to -1,998,167,657.55 RMB, mainly due to increased payments for long-term assets as business volume grew[7] - Net cash flow from financing activities surged by 1,310.38% to 822,877,951.90 RMB, primarily because the scale of external debt repayment exceeded the scale of external borrowing[7] - Cash received from sales of goods and services amounted to 15,343,409,303.73, up from 6,596,500,803.68 in the previous period[16] - Cash flow from operating activities totaled 16,932,554,132.40, compared to 7,083,915,635.18 in the previous period[16] - Total cash outflow from operating activities: 15,616,687,838.75 RMB[17] - Net cash flow from operating activities: 1,315,866,293.65 RMB[17] - Total cash inflow from investing activities: 2,206,268,922.89 RMB[17] - Net cash flow from investing activities: -1,998,167,657.55 RMB[17] - Total cash inflow from financing activities: 1,830,463,568.84 RMB[17] - Net cash flow from financing activities: 822,877,951.90 RMB[17] - Net increase in cash and cash equivalents: 114,512,662.87 RMB[17] - Ending cash and cash equivalents balance: 3,348,413,631.42 RMB[17] Tax and Income Tax Expenses - Income tax expenses increased by 245.29% to 541,084,742.82 RMB, driven by higher profit totals requiring increased tax payments[7] Share Capital and Equity - The company's share capital increased by 39.65% to 1,121,166,509.00 RMB, following a capital reserve distribution to shareholders[6] Report Details - The company's Q3 report is unaudited[18] - The report is signed by the legal representative, Liu Sheng, on October 23, 2024[19]

本公司及监事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整， 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 证券代码：300308 证券简称：中际旭创 公告编号：2024-085 中际旭创股份有限公司(以下简称"公司"或"中际旭创")第五届监事会第十一 次会议通知于 2024 年 10 月 11 日以电话、电子邮件的方式向全体监事发出，并于 2024 年 10 月 21 日上午 10:30 以通讯方式召开。会议应到监事 3 人，实到监事 3 人，会议 的召开及表决程序符合《公司法》等法律、行政法规、部门规章、规范性文件及《公 司章程》的有关规定，会议合法有效。会议由监事会主席陈彩云女士主持，会议审议 并以记名投票表决方式通过了如下决议： 一、审议通过了《关于公司 2024 年第三季度报告的议案》 中际旭创股份有限公司 第五届监事会第十一次会议决议公告 特此公告 中际旭创股份有限公司监事会 2024 年 10 月 23 日 根据《公司法》《公司章程》《上市公司信息披露管理办法》及其他有关规定，经 监事会认真审核，认为《公司 2024 年第三季度报告》的编制和审核程序符合法律法 规及《公司章程》的相关规定，报告内容能够真实 ...

证券代码：300308 证券简称：中际旭创 公告编号：2024-082 中际旭创股份有限公司 关于使用部分闲置募集资金进行现金管理的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整， 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 中际旭创股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"中际旭创"）于 2024 年 4 月 18 日召开的第五届董事会第七次会议、第五届监事会第七次会议分别审议并通过了《关 于继续使用闲置募集资金进行现金管理的议案》，为提高暂时闲置募集资金的使用效 率，增加资金收益，在保证募集资金投资项目建设和募集资金正常使用的情况下， 公司及子公司苏州旭创科技有限公司、孙公司铜陵旭创科技有限公司和苏州旭创光 电产业园发展有限公司合计拟使用不超过人民币 70,000 万元的暂时闲置募集资金进 行现金管理，在额度范围内，资金可循环滚动使用；使用期限自股东大会审议通过 之日起十二个月内有效，单个投资产品的投资期限不超过十二个月；具体内容详见 公司在中国证监会指定创业板上市公司信息披露网站巨潮资讯网披露的《中际旭创 股份有限公司关于继续使用闲置募集资金进行现金管理的公告》（公告编号： 2024-033），该 ...