9月11日，在第26届中国国际光电博览会上，人潮涌动，新易盛、中际旭创、光迅科技等光模块"顶 流"云集。记者在现场看到，头部光通信厂商纷纷展示了当前最高端的1.6T光模块产品，现场"保密"级 别显著升级，不少产品现场不许拍照或者需要预约参观，有观众动笔记下产品明细。采访发现，2025年 被视为1.6T光模块商业化元年，头部厂商已经开始出货，主要供应海外市场；在国内市场，400G/800G 光模块仍为出货主力，国产光通信产业链积极扩产，并布局硅光工艺等先进技术路线。（证券时报） ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the positive fundamentals of the optical module sector have been widely recognized and fully reflected in stock prices, suggesting that investors should consider taking profits as market sentiment is high [3][5]. Valuation Analysis - Morgan Stanley's cautious stance is primarily based on valuation considerations, indicating that the valuations of New Ease and Tianfu Communication have exceeded historical +1 standard deviation levels, implying that the positive fundamentals have at least been partially digested [5][6]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the forward P/E ratio of Zhongji Xuchuang has risen from 14x to 24x, while New Ease has increased from 8x to 20x, suggesting limited further upside for New Ease as the market consensus views it as the second-largest global player with the best profit margins [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - New Ease: Downgraded to a "Reduce" rating with a target price of 255 CNY, as the current market consensus limits further upside potential [6]. - Zhongji Xuchuang: Maintained an "Overweight" rating with a target price of 435 CNY, expected to achieve significant growth in 2026 as a pioneer of 1.6T new products [7]. - Tianfu Communication: Downgraded to a "Reduce" rating with an increased target price of 142 CNY, as its profit growth potential is already reflected in the current stock price [8]. Future Outlook - The rapid rollout of 1.6T products is seen as a potential catalyst for the second half of 2025 and 2026, with expectations of increased shipments following the restart of high-end GPU deliveries [10]. - LightCounting data indicates that 800G will begin mass production in 2024, while 1.6T will start commercial production in 2025-2026, with some optical module companies having completed the validation phase for 1.6T products [10].

Market Overview - A-shares continued their rebound with a significant increase in trading volume, reaching a daily turnover of 2.46 trillion yuan, up by over 460 billion yuan from the previous day [5][6][17] - The technology sector, particularly communication and electronics stocks, experienced substantial gains, contributing to overall market sentiment [3][5][16] Sector Performance - The ChiNext Index rose over 5%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.65% to 3875.31 points [4][5] - The communication sector surged by 7.39%, with notable stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang, Tianfu Communication, and Xinyi Sheng seeing increases of 14.28%, 13.53%, and 13.42% respectively [7][8][12] - The electronics sector also performed well, with a nearly 6% increase and multiple stocks hitting the daily limit [9][10] Key Drivers - The market rally was partly fueled by Oracle's record-breaking quarterly earnings report, which significantly boosted investor confidence in technology stocks [3][17] - Anticipation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to attract more capital into the A-share market, enhancing the overall investment sentiment [16][17] Investment Opportunities - Analysts are optimistic about sectors such as AI hardware, robotics, AI applications, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to benefit from ongoing technological advancements and policy support [21][22] - The AI computing industry is projected to see a fivefold increase in global demand over the next five years, indicating a strong growth trajectory [21] Market Sentiment - The overall market sentiment has improved, with 4221 stocks closing higher and 94 stocks hitting the daily limit [6][11] - The current market structure shows a tendency for rapid rotation between high and low valuation sectors, suggesting a cautious approach for investors [19][26]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨通信设备Ⅲ [Table_Title] 通信行业 2025 年中报综述：AI 算力热潮奔涌， 产业动能迸发 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025H1 通信行业高景气延续，算力产业链持续驱动板块成长。运营商 CapEx 向智算侧倾斜， 高速光模块渗透提速，龙头盈利与份额双升；ICT 设备受益自主可控与 AI 大模型落地保持高 增；IDC 资产端扩张周期开启；物联网与北斗民用化加速放量。AI 与算力热潮深化，板块配置 价值凸显。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517110002 SAC：S0490522050005 SAC：S0490523030001 SAC：S0490524100002 SAC：S0490525040002 SFC：BUX641 于海宁 黄天佑 祖圣腾 温筱婷 刘泽龙 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 通信设备Ⅲ cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 通信行业 2025 2] 年中报综述：AI 算力热潮奔涌， 产业动能迸发 [Table ...

Group 1 - The ChiNext Index has seen a significant increase, surpassing 3000 points for the first time in over three years, with a maximum rise of over 70% year-to-date [2][3][4] - The surge in the ChiNext Index is attributed to the strong performance of technology stocks, which have driven related sectors in the A-share market [2][4] - The "Yizhongtian" combination, consisting of companies like Xinyi Technology, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Tianfu Communication, accounts for a significant weight in the ChiNext Index, contributing to its rise [2][4][7] Group 2 - Since June 23, the ChiNext Index has experienced a 51.94% increase, while the year-to-date rise is 42.59%, with a maximum increase of 73.84% from the April low of 1756.64 points [4][5] - The top-performing stocks in the ChiNext Index include Xinyi Technology, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Sijian New Materials, with respective increases of 290.27%, 245.33%, and 239.75% since June 23 [5][6] - The total market capitalization of leading ChiNext companies has increased significantly, with companies like Ningde Times and Zhongji Xuchuang seeing market cap increases of over 300 billion [6][7] Group 3 - The ChiNext Index's rapid rise is closely related to the performance of heavyweight stocks, particularly in the AI and semiconductor sectors, which have shown substantial growth [7][8] - The "ChiNext AI" thematic index has surged by 86% this year, reflecting the strong focus on the optical module sector, with leading companies holding significant weights in the index [8][9] - The overall revenue and net profit growth of ChiNext companies outpaces the broader A-share market, with a reported revenue of 2.05 trillion yuan and a net profit of 150.54 billion yuan [13][14]

（文章来源：证券时报网） 9月11日大宗交易成交额居前股票 | 证券代 | 证券简称 | 涨幅 | 收盘价 | 成交量（万 | 成交额（万 | 笔 | 成交价 | 折溢价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 码 | | （%） | （元） | 股） | 元） | 数 | （元） | （%） | | 601179 | 中国西电 | 0.78 | 6.47 | 10251.76 | 59255.20 | 1 | 5.78 | -10.66 | | 688617 | 惠泰医疗 | 1.21 | 309.53 | 216.47 | 53728.82 | 1 | 248.20 | -19.81 | | 002625 | 光启技术 | 3.21 | 47.24 | 500.00 | 23030.00 | 3 | 46.06 | -2.50 | | 300124 | 汇川技术 | 1.48 | 80.70 | 160.00 | 12912.00 | 1 | 80.70 | 0.00 | | 603650 | 彤程新材 | 3.29 | 34 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise of the ChiNext Index, which has surpassed 3000 points for the first time in over three years, driven by strong performance in technology stocks and favorable market conditions [3][5][11]. Market Performance - The ChiNext Index closed at 3053.75 points on September 11, with a daily increase of 5.15% [3][6]. - Since late June, the ChiNext Index has seen a rise of over 50%, and from its low of 1756.64 points in April, the maximum increase for the year has exceeded 70% [6][5]. - In comparison, the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index have seen increases of 15.34% and 29.73% respectively during the same period [6]. Leading Stocks and Sectors - The "Easy Zhongtian" combination, consisting of New Yisheng, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Tianfu Communication, accounts for 15.31% of the ChiNext Index's weight [4][11]. - The top-performing stocks in the ChiNext Index include Zhongji Xuchuang, with a stock price of 439.97 yuan, and New Yisheng, priced at 379.9 yuan [7]. - The highest gains since June 23 have been recorded by Sihuan New Materials, New Yisheng, and Zhongji Xuchuang, with increases of 290.27%, 245.33%, and 239.75% respectively [8]. Market Capitalization - As of September 11, the total market capitalization of the ChiNext is led by Ningde Times at 1.48 trillion yuan, followed by Zhongji Xuchuang and Dongfang Caifu [9]. - A total of 16 stocks in the ChiNext have market capitalizations exceeding 100 billion yuan, with several stocks seeing increases of over 300 billion yuan since the market rally began on June 23 [9]. AI and Technology Influence - The rapid rise of the ChiNext Index is closely linked to the performance of key technology stocks, particularly in the AI and semiconductor sectors [11][12]. - The "ChiNext Artificial Intelligence" index has surged by 86% this year, reflecting the strong focus on the optical module sector, which is crucial for AI infrastructure [12]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, ChiNext companies reported a total revenue of 2.05 trillion yuan, with an average revenue growth of 9.03% [17]. - The net profit for ChiNext companies reached 1505.42 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.18% [17]. - The top 100 companies in the ChiNext accounted for 45.68% of total revenue and 68.06% of total net profit, indicating strong performance among leading firms [17]. Industry Focus - The ChiNext serves high-tech industries and strategic emerging sectors, supporting innovation and the integration of traditional industries with new technologies [18]. - The index includes numerous companies from sectors such as renewable energy, biomedicine, and advanced manufacturing, showcasing high potential for revenue and profit growth [18].

该投行大幅调整了对多只光模块龙头股的评级，其中新易盛被双重下调至减持，成为最大的评级变化。大摩警告称，新易盛在2Q25实现338%的同比业绩增 长后，增长率可能在接下来几个季度显著放缓，这更有可能触发估值下调。 自4月以来，新易盛涨幅高达460%，中际旭创上涨312%，天孚通信涨269%，华工科技涨62%。摩根士丹利认为，尽管AI基础设施需求增长前景依然积极， 但当前市场热情水平难以持续。在基本面分析和估值分析结合下，该机构建议投资者保持纪律性，逐步获利了结。 估值升至历史区间上沿 经过数月大幅上涨后，摩根士丹利认为光模块行业的基本面利好已基本反映在股价中，该机构对多只光模块相关股票进行了评级调整。 据追风交易台，摩根士丹利发布最新研报表示，该板块的基本面利好已被广泛知晓并充分反映在股价中，建议投资者在市场情绪高涨时适度获利了结。这一 观点与高盛8月底发布的乐观报告形成鲜明对比，高盛认为"暴涨后估值依然合理"。 "易中天"三巨头前景分化 对于光模块行业的"易中天"三巨头（新易盛、中际旭创、天孚通信），摩根士丹利给出了不同的投资建议： 新易盛：双降至减持评级，目标价255元。大摩认为当前市场共识已将该公司视为全 ...

五个月最大涨幅超过70%，时隔三年半之后，创业板指数重回3000点。 9月11日，市场全天走强，三大指数猛力上攻，创业板指数一路领涨，当日报收3053.75点，涨幅达到 5.15%。该指数上一次站上3000点，还是在2022年年初。 拉长时间来看，A股近两个月的持续上攻中，创业板指的表现一骑绝尘，领先其他主要指数。Wind统计 显示，6月下旬至今，创业板指区间涨幅超五成，若按4月低点1756.64点计算，年内最大涨幅已超过七 成。 创业板指以及创业板系列指数持续攀升，与权重股的推动息息相关。目前，"易中天"组合，即新易盛 （300502.SZ）、中际旭创（300308.SZ）、天孚通信（300394.SZ），是创业板多个指数的前十大权重 股。其中，创业板指数中，"易中天"合计权重达15.31%，在创业板综指中合计权重为6.48%。 创业板指年内最大涨幅超七成 9月11早盘，创业板指开盘报2917.77点，开盘后一度微跌，而后快速拉升，午盘前站上3000点，半日涨 幅达4.31%。午后，创业板指持续走强，算力硬件、PCB、液冷服务器等概念股持续爆发，中际旭创、 新易盛等个股涨幅超10%。最终，创业板指收于305 ...

AI+带着创业板"飞呀飞" 五个月最大涨幅超过70%，时隔三年半之后，创业板指数重回3000点。 9月11日，市场全天走强，三大指数猛力上攻，创业板指数一路领涨，当日报收3053.75点，涨幅达到 5.15%。该指数上一次站上3000点，还是在2022年年初。 创业板指年内最大涨幅超七成 9月11早盘，创业板指开盘报2917.77点，开盘后一度微跌，而后快速拉升，午盘前站上3000点，半日涨 幅达4.31%。午后，创业板指持续走强，算力硬件、PCB、液冷服务器等概念股持续爆发，中际旭创、 新易盛等个股涨幅超10%。最终，创业板指收于3053.75点，创2022年1月以来新高。 今年以来，A股整体震荡上行，4月初受关税风波影响曾出现短期波动，创出年内新低1756.64点。6月底 至今，A股持续上攻，市场主要指数均有所表现，创业板指也从2100点左右起步，历时两月突破3000 点。 机构普遍认为，A股本轮行情始于6月23日。据此计算，截至目前，创业板指数区间涨幅达51.94%，年 内至今则累计上涨42.59%，若按4月的低点1756.64点计算，创业板指年内最大涨幅已达到73.84%。 对比市场其他主要指数，上证 ...