每日经济新闻 12月9日，CPO概念再度爆发，中际旭创盘中涨超5%市值再创新高，新易盛冲击前高，太辰光、锐 捷网络、联特科技等纷纷跟涨。受权重板块带动，截至10:03，同类费率最低的创业板人工智能ETF华 夏（159381）涨3.39%，成交额快速超两亿元。 消息面上，据报道，美国总统在社交媒体上发文宣布，美国政府将允许英伟达向中国出售其H200 人工智能芯片，但对每颗芯片收取一定费用。 H200芯片出口放宽，有助于国产算力需求快速扩张，将驱动相关产业链投资进一步增长，核心配 套环节光模块、光芯片显著受益。国盛证券分析称，光模块产业链存在供给缺口：算力需求迅速增长导 致了光模块产业链的供应缺口，上游光芯片结构性短缺，高速光模块技术门槛高，产能爬坡缓慢，已成 为制约行业发展的关键因素。 资料显示，创业板人工智能ETF华夏（159381）跟踪指数"创业板人工智能指数"，光模块CPO权重 占比56.7%，同时覆盖国产软件+AI应用企业，具备较高弹性。其中前三大权重股为中际旭创 （26.62%）、新易盛（19.35%）、天孚通信（5.05%）。场内综合费率仅0.20%，位居同类最低。场外 联接（A类：025505；C ...

在中央经济工作会议提振下，12月12日A股放量上涨，成交额重上2万亿元，但分化显著，仅2683只个股收涨。电力设 备掀涨停潮，算力概念则相对逊色。 受访人士表示，短期处于政策与数据真空期，难现连续拉升，震荡仍是主基调。电力设备、通信、国防军工等科技股 既契合政策导向，业绩确定性又高，获资金持续扫货。而大消费因业绩拐点未现，暂被冷落。 单日成交额增至2.12万亿元 指数温和收高，深市强于沪市。沪指收涨0.41%报3889.35点，创业板指收涨0.97%报3194.36点，深证成指收涨0.84%。 沪深300、上证50、北证50微涨，科创50收涨1.74%。 但交投活跃度明显提升，今日成交额达2.12万亿元，较前一日大增2337亿元。杠杆资金热度较高，截至12月11日，沪 深京两融余额约为2.51万亿元。 | 名称 | . | 涨幅% ↓ | 涨停家数 | 跌停家数 | 成交额 | 年初至今张幅% | 5日涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属(中万) | | 1.50 | 3 | 0 | 1197亿 | 79.60 | -0. ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model tracks the distance of stock prices or indices from their 250-day high to identify market trends and hotspots. It is based on the momentum and trend-following strategy, which has been proven effective in various studies[11][18]. - **Model Construction Process**: The 250-day new high distance is calculated as follows: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{\text{ts\_max}(Close, 250)} $ Where: - $ Close_t $ is the latest closing price - $ \text{ts\_max}(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance is 0. If the price has fallen from the high, the distance is a positive value, indicating the degree of decline[11]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies stocks and indices that are leading the market, providing insights into market trends and potential investment opportunities[11][18]. 2. Model Name: Stable New High Stock Selection Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on selecting stocks that exhibit stable momentum characteristics, avoiding extreme price jumps. It incorporates factors such as analyst attention, price stability, and trend continuation to identify stocks with strong and consistent performance[26][28]. - **Model Construction Process**: The selection process involves the following steps: 1. **Analyst Attention**: Stocks must have at least five "Buy" or "Overweight" ratings in the past three months. 2. **Relative Strength**: Stocks must rank in the top 20% of the market in terms of 250-day price performance. 3. **Price Stability**: Stocks are scored based on: - **Price Path Smoothness**: Measured by the ratio of price displacement to the total price path. - **Momentum Continuity**: The average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days. 4. **Trend Continuation**: The average 250-day new high distance over the past five days is calculated, and the top 50 stocks are selected based on these criteria[26][28]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model emphasizes stable momentum and avoids stocks with erratic price movements, making it suitable for identifying consistent performers[26][28]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 3.48% - Shenzhen Component Index: 3.40% - CSI 300: 3.52% - CSI 500: 5.02% - CSI 1000: 3.62% - CSI 2000: 2.46% - ChiNext Index: 3.91% - STAR 50 Index: 12.36%[12][13][33] 2. Stable New High Stock Selection Model - **Selected Stocks**: 44 stocks were identified as stable new high performers, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Guangku Technology, and Yuanjie Technology. - **Sector Distribution**: - Cyclical and technology sectors had the highest number of selected stocks, with 16 stocks each. - Within the cyclical sector, the non-ferrous metals industry had the most stocks. - Within the technology sector, the electronics industry had the most stocks[29][34]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: 250-Day New High Distance - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the relative position of a stock's or index's price compared to its 250-day high, serving as a momentum indicator[11]. - **Factor Construction Process**: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{\text{ts\_max}(Close, 250)} $ Where: - $ Close_t $ is the latest closing price - $ \text{ts\_max}(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is effective in identifying leading stocks and indices, providing a clear signal of market momentum[11][18]. 2. Factor Name: Price Path Smoothness - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates the stability of a stock's price movement over time, favoring stocks with smoother price paths[26]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the ratio of price displacement to the total price path over a specified period. - Higher scores indicate smoother price paths, which are preferred for stable momentum strategies[26]. - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor helps avoid stocks with erratic price movements, improving the reliability of momentum-based strategies[26]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance Factor - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 3.48% - Shenzhen Component Index: 3.40% - CSI 300: 3.52% - CSI 500: 5.02% - CSI 1000: 3.62% - CSI 2000: 2.46% - ChiNext Index: 3.91% - STAR 50 Index: 12.36%[12][13][33] 2. Price Path Smoothness Factor - **Selected Stocks**: 44 stocks were identified as stable new high performers, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Guangku Technology, and Yuanjie Technology. - **Sector Distribution**: - Cyclical and technology sectors had the highest number of selected stocks, with 16 stocks each. - Within the cyclical sector, the non-ferrous metals industry had the most stocks. - Within the technology sector, the electronics industry had the most stocks[29][34].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Zhongji Xuchuang, a global leader in optical modules, has reached a historical high, with Goldman Sachs maintaining a positive outlook and projecting strong growth in the company's performance, setting a target price of 762 RMB, indicating a potential upside of over 30% from the current price of 582 RMB [1][2]. Group 1: Market Demand - Goldman Sachs expresses optimism regarding terminal market demand, driven by the growth in AI server shipments and the increasing proportion of ASIC AI servers, with a significant rise in rack-level AI servers expected by 2026 [4]. - The diversification of AI server chip platforms, particularly with more ASIC AI server models anticipated in the second half of 2026, will increase the demand for optical modules, further supporting industry growth [4]. - The transition from EML to silicon photonic optical modules is expected to enhance Zhongji Xuchuang's gross margin due to lower costs associated with silicon photonic technology [4]. Group 2: Supply Side Improvement - Goldman Sachs forecasts ongoing improvements in the supply side over the coming years, with silicon photonic chip foundries expanding capacity and the supply of indium phosphide (InP) substrates in mainland China returning to normal [6]. - Monthly revenues for InP epitaxial wafer and continuous wave laser suppliers, LandMark and VPEC, are gradually recovering, indicating a mitigation of the impacts from export controls [6]. - These companies are expanding their InP substrate supplier channels and increasing capacity for epitaxial wafers and continuous wave lasers to meet future growth demands, supporting the development of silicon photonic optical modules [6]. Group 3: New Opportunities in On-Board Optical Modules - Despite market concerns that the evolution of optical modules towards optical engines may reduce the added value of Zhongji Xuchuang in the on-board optical module (NPO) sector, Goldman Sachs believes that product pricing will still be linked to speed as high-speed interconnects continue to upgrade [8]. - The competition in the industry is becoming healthier, requiring suppliers to possess photonic integrated circuit (PIC) design capabilities, with the optical engines in NPOs being more integrated than pluggable optical modules [8]. - Zhongji Xuchuang's involvement in the NPO business demonstrates its strong research and development capabilities, keeping pace with the technological iterations of major cloud service providers in the U.S. [8].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：证券市场周刊市场号 文 | 尚扬 近期，光模块概念持续表现，12月12日，Wind光模块（CPO）指数再创新高，个股中，也有7只个股股 价在本周刷新了历史新高。业内人士认为，光模块需求可见度较高，订单指引持续上修，供不应求将成 为行业常态，景气度持续攀升。2027年之前，光模块都会是市场最强王者之一。 光模块概念持续表现 个股中，19只概念股7只本周股价创出历史新高，若拉长时间来看，12家公司年内累计涨幅实现翻倍， 仕佳光子的涨势最为凌厉，累计涨幅已超500%，新易盛、源捷科技两家公司的累计涨幅也均超过了 400%（见表1）。 | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 年内涨跌幅(%) | 区间最高收盘价日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 688313.SH | 仕佳光子 | 566.12 | 2025/12/12 | | 688205.SH | 德科立 | 150.63 | 2025/12/12 | | 300502.SZ | 新易盛 | 420.53 | 2025/12/11 | | 300308.SZ JA ...

沪深股通今日合计成交3096.84亿，其中寒武纪和中际旭创分居沪股通和深股通个股成交额首位。板块 主力资金方面，电网设备板块主力资金净流入居首。ETF成交方面，中证500ETF（159922）成交额环 比增长258%。 龙虎榜方面，今日触及20cm涨停的联特科技获深股通席位净买入1.07亿，获国泰海通证券上海中山东路 营业部净买入1.48亿，同时获国泰海通证券南京太平南路营业部净买入1.1亿。摩尔线程获摩根大通中国 银城中路营业部买入2.07亿，获平安证券深圳分公司买入0.82亿，同时遭国泰海通证券公司总部卖出 2.22亿，遭高盛证券上海世纪大道营业部卖出2.13亿，遭中金公司上海分公司卖出1.17亿。 一、沪深股通前十大成交 今日沪股通总成交金额为1498.83亿，深股通总成交金额为1598亿。 | | | 沪股通( 12月12日 ) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排名 | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | 成交金额(亿元) | | 1 | 688256 | 寒武纪 | 29.26 | | 2 | 668109 | 紫等时,不 | 20.54 | | 3 | 603259 | 药 ...

两融数据显示，该股最新融资余额为195.80亿元，近5日增加1.15亿元，增幅为0.59%。 据天眼查APP显示，中际旭创股份有限公司成立于2005年06月27日，注册资本111111.8334万人民币。 （数据宝） 中际旭创12月12日大宗交易平台出现一笔成交，成交量2.13万股，成交金额1239.66万元，大宗交易成交 价为582.00元。该笔交易的买卖双方均为机构专用席位。 进一步统计，近3个月内该股累计发生40笔大宗交易，合计成交金额为27.06亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，中际旭创今日收盘价为582.00元，下跌0.82%，日换手率为4.24%，成交额 为273.62亿元，全天主力资金净流出6.92亿元，近5日该股累计上涨8.37%，近5日资金合计净流出23.29 亿元。 12月12日中际旭创大宗交易一览 | 成交量（万 | 成交金额（万 | 成交价格 | 相对当日收盘折溢价 | 买方营业 | 卖方营业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股） | 元） | （元） | （%） | 部 | 部 | | 2.13 | 1239.66 | 582.00 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that AI hardware is not only the main market line for 2025 but also the core increment of the technology cycle for the coming years [2][3] - The Wind hardware equipment index has surged approximately 49% this year, with transaction volume increasing by 83.83% compared to the same period last year, reaching an average daily transaction volume of 271.9 billion yuan [2] Company Rankings - The article presents the top 10 hardware equipment companies based on a comprehensive evaluation of 589 A-share companies, focusing on "R&D innovation, financial health, growth potential, and market performance" [4] - The top 10 companies include: 1. Xinyi Technology (新易盛) - Optical module solutions provider 2. Hikvision (海康威视) - Intelligent IoT solutions provider 3. Zhongji Xuchuang (中际旭创) - High-speed optical module solutions provider 4. ZTE Corporation (中兴通讯) - Network equipment and telecommunications provider 5. Dahua Technology (大华股份) - Video-centric smart IoT solutions provider 6. Shenghong Technology (胜宏科技) - High-precision PCB manufacturer 7. Industrial Fulian (工业富联) - Industrial internet and smart manufacturing service provider 8. BOE Technology Group (京东方) - Display panel leader 9. Yingshi Innovation (影石创新) - Intelligent imaging equipment provider [5][6] Industry Trends - The industry is entering a new phase characterized by "AI/computing power first," with AI being the largest variable and certainty for hardware equipment in 2025 [10] - A "hard technology growth chain" centered around AI computing power is rapidly forming, with leading companies showing high innovation, financial stability, and strong market performance [10][19] - The first-tier companies exhibit a total score above 1600, indicating robust financial health and market competitiveness, while the second-tier companies, scoring between 1400-1600, include both large manufacturers and niche leaders [19][20] Financial Health and Market Performance - The article notes that top companies have a strong financial foundation and market competitiveness, while R&D innovation and growth potential scores are more dispersed, particularly in high-demand sectors like data centers and AI [9][12] - Companies with high R&D scores but poor financial health tend to have lower market performance, indicating a stricter market scrutiny of "stories" and "concepts" [12]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月12日 **Acknowledgement** **The authors thank the anonymous referee for the help and comments on the manuscript.** 见微知著：利用创新高个股进行市场监测：截至 2025 年 12 月 12 日，共 746 只股票在过去 20 个交易日间创出 250 日新高。其中创新高个股数量最多的 是基础化工、机械、电子行业，创新高个股数量占比最高的是有色金属、纺 织服装、农林牧渔行业。按照板块分布来看，本周制造、周期板块创新高股 票数量最多；按照指数分布来看，中证 2000、中证 1000、中证 500、沪深 300、创业板指、科创 50 指数中创新高个股数量占指数成份股个数比例分别 为：14.45%、13.10%、10.20%、12.33%、10.00%、0.00%。 平稳创新高股票跟踪：我们根据分析师关注度、股价相对强弱、趋势延续性、 股价路径平稳性、创新高持续性等角度，本周从全市场创新高股票中筛选出 了包含中际旭创、光库科技、源杰科技等 44 只平稳创新高的股票。按照板 块来 ...

（原标题：多股午后异动拉升！300308，300502，成交超200亿元！） 多只个股午后异动拉升。 中兴通讯午后拉升。港股一度涨超5%；A股拉升翻红，早盘一度跌超3%。公司12月12日午间公告称，拟使用自有资金以集中竞价交易方式回购公 司A股股份，用于实施公司员工持股计划或者股权激励。本次回购资金总额为不低于10亿元且不超过12亿元。 多只基金重仓股、大基金持股短线拉升。燕东微、拓荆科技涨超10%。 中际旭创(300308)、新易盛(300502)两只股票均属于基金重仓股，成交额均突破200亿元。 校对：盘达 ...