作为光模块领域龙头，中际旭创（300308）（SZ300308，股价369.99元，市值4111亿元）2027年归母净 利润预测成为近期资本市场焦点。 《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，一边是买方代表、荒原投资董事长凌鹏公开质疑"250亿元净利润预 测"的合理性，强调制造业周期风险与价值回归逻辑；另一边是多家卖方券商近期集体上调盈利预测数 据，少数券商看高至200亿元以上。 8月26日，中际旭创发布2025年半年报，公司上半年实现营收147.89亿元，同比增长37.0%；实现归母净 利润39.95亿元，同比增长69.4%；实现扣非归母净利润39.75亿元，同比增长70.4%。 买卖双方争议预测数据 9月5日，凌鹏公开质疑市场对中际旭创2027年净利润超过250亿元的预测，引发业界广泛关注。 周期性规律或难以回避 《每日经济新闻》记者梳理发现，自中际旭创发布2025年半年报后，多数券商行业分析师上调该公司未 来净利润预期。不过，并没有行业分析师给出"2027年净利润达到250亿元"的预测数据。 公开资料显示，凌鹏曾任申银万国首席策略师，三次荣获《新财富》最佳分析师第一名；2016年创办荒 原投资，持股99%，担任公司 ...

格隆汇9月8日｜中际旭创盘中一度大跌超15%，报344元。消息面上，9月5日，买方大佬凌鹏就市场预测"中际旭创2027年的利润预测超过250亿"进行点评， 他灵魂发问一个零部件制造业公司可以达到这么高的年利润，并质疑线性外推的合理性。对此，国盛通信某分析师直接在朋友圈怒怼："买你的白酒去吧， 老登。"查询发现，这又是一位新人分析师，2022年刚转为分析师。 一财指出，这不禁让人想到2021年夏天的"你算老几"事件。彼时方正证券科技与电子首席分析师陈杭因向疑似为中芯国际光刻胶技术负责人的杨晓松直 言"你算老几"，彼时正是半导体行业行情火热之际。就在上述事件发生后的周一开盘，2021年8月2日，市场风格突然暴力切换，基建、白酒大反攻，而之前 狂奔猛进的半导体熄火。芯片ETF逆市大跌2.11%，盘中最大跌幅接近5%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - A debate has emerged in the financial sector regarding the profit forecast for Zhongji Xuchuang in 2027, with a senior buyer questioning the market's common prediction of a net profit target of 25 billion yuan, arguing that linear extrapolation of profits for component manufacturing companies lacks rationality [1][3]. Group 1: Profit Forecast and Market Sentiment - The controversy stems from optimistic market expectations for Zhongji Xuchuang's future profitability, with some analysts supporting the 25 billion yuan profit forecast based on the assumption that the company's production capacity will be fully released by 2027 and that management has stated there will be no price reduction strategy [3]. - Current gross and net profit margins are approximately 30%, significantly higher than Luxshare Precision's 5% net profit margin, leading to the conclusion drawn from financial models by some market participants [3]. Group 2: Criticism and Alternative Perspectives - The senior buyer, Ling Peng, sharply criticizes the simplistic linear extension of current market conditions into the future, highlighting that no company would expand production significantly in anticipation of substantial price declines, akin to a fund manager not heavily investing when expecting a drop in portfolio value [3]. - The debate reflects a clash of analytical paradigms in the financial industry, with one side relying on existing data for financial modeling and the other emphasizing the dynamic changes in business logic [3]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics and Analyst Challenges - As Zhongji Xuchuang's industry enters a phase of rapid technological iteration, balancing production expansion with pricing strategies is becoming a critical challenge for analysts' predictive capabilities [3].

源杰科技、中际旭创跌超10%，新易盛、生益电子、天孚通信、胜宏科技跌超8%，仕佳光子、光库科 技等跟跌。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhaolong Interconnect (300913.SZ) has stated on its interactive platform that there is currently no collaboration with Zhongji Xuchuang [1] Company Summary - Zhaolong Interconnect confirmed the absence of any partnership with Zhongji Xuchuang [1]

Group 1 - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) experienced a significant intraday drop of over 15%, reaching a price of 344 yuan [1] - On September 5, a prominent buyer, Ling Peng, commented on market predictions that Zhongji Xuchuang's profit forecast for 2027 could exceed 25 billion yuan, questioning the feasibility of such high annual profits for a component manufacturing company [1] - A communication analyst from Guosheng directly responded to Ling Peng's comments, suggesting he should focus on buying liquor instead, highlighting the tension between analysts in the industry [1] Group 2 - The situation recalls the "you count as who" incident from the summer of 2021, where a chief analyst from Founder Securities made a controversial remark during a hot semiconductor market, leading to a sudden shift in market sentiment [1] - Following the previous incident, on August 2, 2021, there was a violent market style switch, with infrastructure and liquor stocks rebounding while semiconductor stocks, including chip ETFs, faced declines, with a maximum drop of nearly 5% [1]

今天上午，算力板块下跌，中际旭创、新易盛、胜宏科技、天孚通信、寒武纪、工业富联等龙头股下跌。其中，中际旭创下跌12.37%，成交额为212.93亿 元，居A股第一。 新能源赛道上午继续走强，固态电池、能源金属等板块涨幅居前，阳光电源、宁德时代、赣锋锂业等龙头股上涨。大消费、养殖产业链也表现活跃。 截至上午收盘，上证指数上涨0.17%，深证成指上涨0.16%，创业板指下跌1.33%。 | 人形机器人板块大涨 | | --- | 今天上午，人形机器人板块上涨，带动PEEK材料板块上涨，骏鼎达、沃尔德、华密新材等个股大涨。 | | | 人形机器人 2444.91 2.48% | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 成分股 | 基金 | 资金 | 板块分析 | 新闻 | | C展开分析 | | 最新 | 涨幅 ◆ | 流通市值 | | N三协 新 920100 | | | 80.22 808.49% | 13.7亿 | | 华密新材 融 836247 | | 38.09 | 21.54% | 43.5亿 | | 肇民科技 融 301000 | | 53.33 | 20.00% ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The computing power sector experienced a decline, with leading stocks such as Zhongji Xuchuang down by 12.37% and a trading volume of 21.293 billion yuan, ranking first in A-shares [1] - The new energy sector continued to strengthen, with solid-state batteries and energy metals leading the gains, including stocks like Sungrow Power and CATL [1] - As of the morning close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.17%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.16%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 1.33% [1] Group 2: Humanoid Robot Sector - The humanoid robot sector saw significant gains, positively impacting the PEEK materials sector, with stocks like Jun Ding Da and World achieving substantial increases [2] - Recent catalysts for the humanoid robot sector include Tesla's launch of its "TeslaAI" official Weibo account and the announcement of Unitree's IPO preparations [4] - Notable contracts in the humanoid robot space include a 250 million yuan procurement contract for UBTECH's Walker S2 robot, indicating strong demand [4][5] Group 3: Solid-State Battery Sector - The solid-state battery sector continued its upward trend, with companies like Xiamen Tungsten and Delong Laser hitting the 20% daily limit [6] - Analysts attribute the surge in the solid-state battery sector to the rapid growth of equipment orders and the increasing industrialization of solid-state batteries [8] - Companies such as BETTERRY and Gotion High-Tech have disclosed progress in solid-state battery developments during investor interactions, further stimulating market interest [8]

9月8日周一，光模块CPO、光通信等前期强势方向深度回调，中际旭创、新易盛、光库科技、天孚通信等 盘中跌超10%。相关ETF中，截至11点11分，光模块概念股权重占比超51%的创业板人工智能ETF华夏 （159381）跌近6%，聚焦AI算力龙头股的5G通信ETF（515050）跌超4%。 近期A股光通信板块出现显著回调。国盛证券分析认为，其核心原因更多源于市场情绪和资金动向变化， 而非行业基本面的变化。光通信板块内多只龙头股自2025年4月以来累计涨幅巨大，积累了大量的获利盘。前 期涌入的短线投机资金集体获利了结，导致板块整体承压回调。 | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 涨跌幅 ^ | 成交额 | 现价 | 涨跌 60日涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159381 创业板人工智能ETF华夏 Jrvs | | | -5.92% | 3.43亿 | 1.494 | -0.094 | 59.11% | | 515050 5G通信ETF | | r | -4.17% | 2.82亿 | 1.815 | -0.079 | 65.7 ...

Group 1 - High-performance computing hardware stocks have seen significant declines, with companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Shenghong Technology dropping over 10% [1][5] - Analyst Ling Peng questioned the feasibility of Zhongji Xuchuang's projected profit of over 25 billion by 2027, highlighting concerns about linear extrapolation in profit forecasts [1][3] - The market's reaction to Ling Peng's comments mirrors past events, such as the "You are nobody" incident in 2021, which led to a sudden shift in market sentiment away from the semiconductor sector [5] Group 2 - A public fund manager noted that while some sectors are experiencing volatility and corrections, the overall market remains in a bullish atmosphere, indicating potential for high-risk trading strategies [6] - The manager emphasized the need for fundamental performance improvements for continued stock price increases, particularly in sectors like optical modules, which are currently valued at nearly 20 times earnings [5][6] - There are concerns about the rapid pace of earnings revisions, which could lead to increased market volatility in the future [5]