Investment Rating - The semiconductor industry is rated as "Standard Configuration" for investment [1]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry showed signs of recovery in April 2025, with a continued upward trend in prices despite high inventory levels. Key areas of focus include AI computing power, AIOT, semiconductor equipment, and critical components [6][7]. - The demand for semiconductors is expected to continue improving, driven by growth in smartphones, tablets, wearables, AI servers, and new energy vehicles [6][7]. - The report highlights significant performance growth in domestic AI chip companies and sustained high capital expenditure from leading overseas cloud providers [6][7]. Monthly Market Review - The semiconductor sector experienced a price increase of 0.75% in April 2025, while the overall electronic sector declined by 5.07% [13][15]. - The semiconductor industry's valuation metrics indicate a PE ratio of 70.69% and a PB ratio of 46.74%, reflecting a high valuation compared to historical averages [21][24]. Supply and Demand Data - Global semiconductor sales in March 2025 increased by 18.84% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in demand [6]. - The report notes that while supply remains relatively abundant, prices are showing signs of an upward trend, with expectations for further demand recovery in May [6][7]. Downstream Demand Tracking - The report tracks significant growth in the demand for TWS headphones and AI servers, with global smartphone shipments increasing by 1.53% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [6][7]. - New energy vehicle sales in China saw a year-on-year increase of 40.09% in March 2025, contributing to semiconductor demand [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from strong domestic and international demand in the AIOT sector, such as Lexin Technology and Hengxuan Technology [7]. - It also recommends monitoring AI-driven innovation sectors, including computing chips and optical devices, as well as upstream supply chain companies involved in domestic substitution [7].

Group 1 - The company specializes in providing daily-rebalanced ETP products that include leveraged, unleveraged, inverse, and inverse leveraged factors [1][3] - The research focuses on macroeconomic assessments, strategic sector viability, and market data trends to inform investment decisions [1] - There is a particular interest in Asian markets, including India and China, with in-depth analyses published on economic trends and business narratives [1] Group 2 - The company does not hold any stock or derivative positions in the companies mentioned, ensuring an unbiased perspective in its analyses [2] - The asset under management (AUM) is primarily influenced by investor interest rather than market movements [3]

Core Viewpoint - The investment strategy focuses on fundamental, bottom-up analysis with an emphasis on long-term quality growth, targeting companies in niche markets with strong growth potential and reasonable valuations [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment style is characterized by a long-term, quality growth orientation, avoiding short-term performance metrics [1]. - The portfolio typically consists of 15-20 stocks, emphasizing diversification, risk management, and macro-driven sector weights [1]. - The target annual return for the portfolio is set at 15% [1]. Group 2: Company Characteristics - The ideal companies for investment are those with strong management teams, sound capital allocation policies, and significant growth potential [1].

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Stock Market - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the third consecutive meeting with no change in rates [1] - Following the announcement, U.S. stock markets saw a significant rally, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.7%, the S&P 500 increasing by 0.43%, and the Nasdaq gaining 0.27% [1] - Notable stock movements included a drop of over 7% for Google, a decline of more than 1% for Apple, while Nvidia rose over 3% and Amazon increased by 2% [1] Group 2: Baidu's Animal Language Conversion Patent - Baidu has officially published a patent for an "Animal Language Conversion Method, Device, Electronic Equipment, and Storage Medium," which aims to facilitate deep communication between humans and animals [2][3] - The patent utilizes artificial intelligence technologies, including machine learning and natural language processing, to accurately identify animal emotional states and translate them into human-understandable language [2][3] - This innovation is expected to enhance emotional communication and understanding between species, improving cross-species communication accuracy and efficiency [3] Group 3: Industry Developments - Tencent announced an upgrade to its text-to-image generation capabilities, integrating the latest models into its platform [15] - Lenovo introduced a groundbreaking "super intelligent agent" technology at its innovation conference, marking a significant evolution in AI capabilities [16] - Apple is considering a major overhaul of its Safari browser to focus on AI-driven search engines, potentially ending its long-standing partnership with Google [16][17] - Arm reported record quarterly revenue exceeding $1 billion but provided disappointing guidance, leading to a significant drop in its stock price [18][19] - Baidu and Alibaba Cloud launched the first vertical MCP service in the finance and tax sector, aiming to transition businesses from experience-driven to data-driven operations [19][20] - Geely proposed to privatize Zeekr at a price of $2.57 per share, representing a premium over recent trading prices [23]

Group 1 - OpenAI plans to significantly reduce its revenue sharing with Microsoft from 20% to below 10% by 2030, indicating a desire for greater independence and profitability [2] - Apple is actively working on enhancing its Safari browser to transition to an AI-driven search engine, which may end its long-standing partnership with Google, causing a significant drop in Google's stock price [3] - Amazon announced an investment of over $4 billion to establish an AWS infrastructure region in Chile by the end of 2026, demonstrating its commitment to expanding in the global cloud computing market, particularly in South America [4][5] Group 2 - OpenAI launched a new global AI development initiative called "OpenAI for Countries," aiming to collaborate with nations to develop AI infrastructure and provide customized ChatGPT solutions for various sectors [6] - Arm Holdings reported better-than-expected earnings for Q4 2024 but issued disappointing guidance for Q1 2025, projecting revenue between $1 billion and $1.1 billion, which is below analyst expectations, leading to a significant drop in its stock price [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4, the company achieved record revenue exceeding $1,000,000,000 for the first time, with full-year revenue surpassing $4,000,000,000 and royalty revenue exceeding $2,000,000,000 [7][8] - Total revenue for Q4 was $1,240,000,000, with royalty revenue growing 18% year-on-year to a record $607,000,000 [13][14] - Licensing revenue increased over 50% year-on-year to a record $634,000,000, driven by demand for ARMv9 technology [14][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Smartphone royalties increased by 30% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the 2% growth in shipments, indicating a rising value per device [10][14] - The company launched its first ARMv9 Edge AI platform, which has been adopted by major players in the industry [10][11] - Custom silicon demand is driving both licensing and royalty growth, with significant contributions from data centers, automotive, smartphones, and IoT [8][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects up to 50% of new server chips at hyperscalers to be ARM-based this year, reflecting strong momentum in the data center market [8][62] - The automotive sector has shown strong double-digit growth, with ARM gaining market share in advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) [60] - IoT and embedded markets have seen some slowness, but growth is expected to continue, albeit at a slower pace compared to other sectors [61] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on customization of silicon to differentiate performance and unlock unique features, particularly in automotive and hyperscaler markets [42][44] - There is a strategic shift towards direct relationships with OEMs, which may impact traditional fabless semiconductor companies [42][45] - The company plans to aggressively invest in R&D to support customer needs and capitalize on the growing demand for AI technologies [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in healthy growth despite macroeconomic uncertainties, citing strong visibility into customer design pipelines and contracted royalty rates [20][21] - The company anticipates limited direct impact from tariffs on royalty and licensing revenues, with potential indirect effects on end demand [16][26] - Future revenue growth is expected to enable increased investment in next-generation technologies [19][20] Other Important Information - The company signed a significant multi-year agreement with the Malaysian government to develop an ARM-based AI ecosystem, indicating potential for future sovereign-level licensing deals [66][68] - The company is seeing strong demand for its compute subsystems, which are now shipping in volume, boosting both mobile and cloud royalty revenue [11][12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of tariffs on revenue - Management clarified that tariffs do not directly impact costs, and any revenue impact would be indirect, primarily affecting demand elasticity [23][25] Question: ARMv9 adoption rate - The adoption rate for ARMv9 has increased to over 30%, driven by custom silicon solutions [32][33] Question: Strategic direction towards OEMs - Management confirmed a trend towards direct relationships with OEMs for customized silicon, which may affect traditional semiconductor companies [42][45] Question: Licensing performance in Q4 - Licensing revenue growth was strong, with a year-on-year increase of 53%, driven by demand for CSS and AI technologies [76][80] Question: Royalty growth by end market - Management indicated strong growth in smartphones and infrastructure, with automotive also showing double-digit growth, while IoT is recovering slowly [60][61] Question: Future of chiplet technology - Management acknowledged the importance of chiplet technology and its integration with ARM's architecture, emphasizing its role in custom silicon solutions [92][95]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4, the company achieved record revenue exceeding $1,000,000,000 for the first time, with full-year revenue surpassing $4,000,000,000 and royalty revenue exceeding $2,000,000,000 [6][13] - Non-GAAP operating profit reached a record $655,000,000, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.55, at the high end of guidance [16][19] - Royalty revenue grew 18% year on year to a record $607,000,000, driven by flagship smartphone launches [13][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Licensing revenue hit an all-time high of $634,000,000, increasing over 50% year on year, primarily due to demand for ARMv9 technology [7][14] - Smartphone royalties increased by 30% year on year, significantly outpacing the modest 2% growth in shipments [10][14] - The company launched its first ARMv9 Edge AI platform, which has been adopted by major industry players [10][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects up to 50% of new server chips at hyperscalers to be ARM-based this year, indicating strong momentum in the data center market [7][8] - The automotive sector has shown strong double-digit growth, with ARM gaining share in advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) [55] - IoT and embedded markets have experienced some slowness, but signs of recovery are anticipated [56] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on customization of silicon to differentiate performance and unlock unique features, particularly in automotive and hyperscaler markets [41][42] - There is a strategic shift towards signing deals directly with OEMs, which may increase the total addressable market (TAM) [41][42] - The company plans to continue aggressive investment in R&D to support customer needs and capitalize on AI demand [19][20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in healthy growth despite macroeconomic uncertainties, citing visibility into customer design pipelines and rising demand for custom silicon [19][20] - The company does not expect a significant direct impact from tariffs on royalty and licensing revenues, but acknowledges potential indirect effects [16][25] - Future guidance for Q1 indicates revenue growth of 12% year on year, with strong expectations for royalty growth between 25% to 30% [17][19] Other Important Information - The company has expanded its developer community to over 22,000,000, the largest in the world [11] - A significant licensing agreement was signed with the Malaysian government to accelerate the development of an ARM-based AI ecosystem [64] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of tariffs on revenue - Management clarified that tariffs do not directly impact costs, and any revenue impact would be indirect, primarily affecting demand elasticity [22][24] Question: ARMv9 adoption rate - The adoption rate for ARMv9 has increased to over 30%, driven by custom silicon solutions [30][32] Question: Strategic direction towards OEMs - Management confirmed a trend towards direct relationships with OEMs for customized silicon, which is expected to continue [41][42] Question: Licensing performance in Q4 - Licensing revenue growth was strong, with a year-on-year increase of 53%, and management remains optimistic about future growth [72][75] Question: Royalty growth by end market - Management indicated strong growth in smartphones and infrastructure, with expectations for continued growth in automotive and recovery in IoT [55][56] Question: Licensing deal with the Malaysian government - The deal is seen as a milestone, with potential for similar agreements with other governments in the future [64] Question: Sequential trends in royalty growth - Management expects Q1 to show strong growth, with a seasonal dip in Q2, followed by growth in the latter half of the year [70][71]

Group 1 - Arm Holdings' shares dropped over 8% in extended trading after issuing weaker-than-expected guidance for the current quarter [1] - For the fiscal fourth quarter, Arm's revenue was between $1 billion and $1.1 billion, which is below the $1.1 billion average estimated by analysts [2] - Earnings per share for the first quarter are projected to be between 30 cents and 38 cents, while analysts expected 42 cents [2] Group 2 - SoftBank controls approximately 90% of Arm and took the company public in 2023, with a current market cap exceeding $130 billion [3] - Arm's royalty revenue increased by 18% year-over-year to $607 million [3] - The company's net income fell 6% to $210 million, or 20 cents per share, compared to $224 million, or 21 cents per share, in the previous year [4]

investor.relations@arm.com https://investors.arm.com May 7, 2025 © 2025 Arm 1 Arm Holdings plc Q4 FYE25 Investor Presentation In addition to disclosing results determined in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP, Arm utilizes, and this presentation includes, certain non-GAAP financial measures that differ from measures calculated in accordance with GAAP. Arm's non-GAAP financial measures include non-GAAP cost of sales, non-GAAP gross profit (loss), non-GAAP gross margin, non-GAAP ...

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