The recommendations of Wall Street analysts are often relied on by investors when deciding whether to buy, sell, or hold a stock. Media reports about these brokerage-firm-employed (or sell-side) analysts changing their ratings often affect a stock's price. Do they really matter, though?Let's take a look at what these Wall Street heavyweights have to say about Citigroup (C) before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage.Citigroup currently has an average ...

Earnings and Share Price Performance - Citigroup reported its fourth-quarter earnings on January 15, with the share price increasing by 6.5% on the same day [1] - The share price rise was somewhat surprising given the revised 2026 ROTCE target of 10% to 11%, down from the prior target of 11% to 12% [1] Analyst's Position and Research Focus - The analyst has a beneficial long position in Citigroup shares through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives [2] - The analyst's independent banking research focuses on financials, deep value, special situations, and financial arbitrage [1] - The research approach is agnostic and apolitical, aiming to identify durable and uncorrelated cash flows that perform well in both inflationary and deflationary settings [1]

Job Cuts and Restructuring - Citigroup is cutting more jobs this week, including managing directors in the wealth and technology units, as well as members of a team that compiles client data and analysis [1] - The job cuts are part of CEO Jane Fraser's expense goals and follow a restructuring plan presented in late 2023 to increase earnings, streamline operations, and address deficiencies in data governance and risk management [2][5] - One of the senior exits includes Shadman Zafar, the bank's Dallas-based co-chief information officer [1] Financial Performance and Market Reaction - Citigroup's stock surged 37% in 2024, outperforming the broader banking index and equity markets, as investors responded positively to Fraser's transformation efforts [4] - The bank beat estimates for fourth-quarter profit, driven by strength in trading and dealmaking [4] Banamex Listing Plans - Citigroup still expects to list its Mexican unit, Banamex, on both Mexican and US stock exchanges this year [3] - However, market conditions and regulatory hurdles might delay the stock floatation to 2026 [3] - The bank completed the separation of banking companies needed for the listing in December [3]

Dividends and Income Investing - Dividends are a key component of long-term returns, often accounting for over one-third of total returns [1] - Income investors focus on generating consistent cash flow from liquid investments, with dividends being a primary source [6] - High-growth firms and tech start-ups rarely offer dividends, while established companies with secure profits are preferred for dividend income [4] Citigroup Overview - Citigroup (C) is a New York-based bank in the Finance sector, with shares up 11.19% year-to-date [2] - The company currently pays a dividend of $0.56 per share, yielding 2.86%, higher than the Financial - Investment Bank industry average of 0.88% and the S&P 500's 1.53% [2] - Citigroup has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a compelling investment opportunity [4] Earnings and Dividend Growth - Citigroup's earnings are expected to grow 22.35% year-over-year in 2025, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.28 per share [3] - The company's current annualized dividend of $2.24 is up 2.8% from last year, with a 5-year average annual increase of 1.58% [7] - Future dividend growth will depend on earnings growth and the payout ratio, which is currently 41% [7] Dividend Benefits - Dividends improve stock investing profits, decrease portfolio risk, and offer tax advantages [5] - However, not all companies provide quarterly dividends, making consistent payers like Citigroup attractive to income investors [5]

Earnings Performance - Adjusted net income per share for 2024 was $4.04, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.88 and down from $5.94 in the year-ago quarter [1] - Fourth-quarter 2024 adjusted net income per share was $1.34, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.25 and improving from a loss of $1.16 in the prior-year quarter [11] - Net income (GAAP basis) in the fourth quarter was $2.9 billion, compared to a loss of $1.8 billion in the prior-year quarter [12] - Full-year 2024 net income was $12.7 billion, up 37.4% year over year [12] Revenue Performance - Fourth-quarter revenues, net of interest expenses, increased 12.3% year over year to $19.6 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $19.55 billion [2] - Full-year revenues, net of interest expenses, were $81.2 billion, up 3% year over year and exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $81.05 billion [2] - Net Interest Income (NII) fell marginally year over year to $13.7 billion, while non-interest revenues (NIR) increased 62% to $5.8 billion [13] Segment Performance - Services segment revenues, net of interest expenses, were $5.17 billion in the fourth quarter, up 15% year over year, driven by Treasury and Trade Solutions and Securities Services [3] - Wealth segment revenues rose 20.4% year over year to $2 billion, driven by a 22% increase in non-interest revenues and a 20% jump in net interest income [4] - All Other segment revenues declined 34% year over year to $1.35 billion [4] - Markets segment revenues increased 36% year over year to $4.6 billion, driven by growth in Fixed Income and Equity markets [14] - Banking revenues increased 27% year over year to $1.24 billion, primarily driven by growth in Investment Banking [14] - U.S. Personal Banking revenues were $5.2 billion, up 6% year over year, driven by higher net interest income growth in Interchange fees [14] Balance Sheet and Capital Position - Deposits at the end of the fourth quarter were down 1.8% sequentially to $1.28 trillion, while loans increased marginally to $694.5 billion [5] - Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio was 13.6% at the end of the fourth quarter, up from 13.4% in the prior-year quarter [16] - Supplementary leverage ratio remained unchanged at 5.8% [16] Credit Quality - Total non-accrual loans fell 16% year over year to $2.7 billion [8] - Provisions for credit losses and benefits and claims were $2.59 billion in the fourth quarter, down 27% year over year [8] - Allowance for credit losses on loans was $18.5 billion, down 2% from the prior-year quarter [8] Capital Deployment - Citigroup returned $2.1 billion to shareholders through common share dividends and share repurchases in the fourth quarter [6] Outlook - Management expects 2024 revenues in the range of $83.5-$84.5 billion, driven by fee growth in the Services segment and a strong Investment Banking business [9] - Net Interest Income (excluding Markets) is projected to be slightly up year over year [9] - Expenses are anticipated to be slightly lower than $53.8 billion [9] Transformation Initiatives - Business transformation initiatives, including consumer business exits and organizational simplification efforts, are expected to benefit the company in the long run [7] - Operating expenses declined 18% year over year to $13.2 billion, primarily due to organizational simplification and stranded cost reductions [13]

Banking Sector Performance - Major banks including JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs reported better-than-expected Q4 results, with positive guidance for 2025 [2] - The operating environment for banks is expected to improve due to a steepening yield curve and potential regulatory easing [3] - Q4 earnings for the Finance sector showed a +23.7% increase in earnings and +10.7% higher revenues, with 83.3% of companies beating revenue estimates [4] - Loan demand remains weak, but investment banking and capital markets businesses saw significant growth, with investment banking revenues up over +20% [5] - JPMorgan's Q4 earnings increased by +15.7%, Wells Fargo by +0.5%, Citigroup by +44.2%, and Goldman Sachs by +104.7% [6] Tech Sector Growth - The Tech sector is expected to continue its strong growth trajectory, with Q4 earnings projected to increase by +14.7% and revenues by +10.1% [7] - This follows a +22.6% earnings growth and +11% revenue growth in Q3 2024 [8] - The Tech sector's earnings outlook is steadily improving, with positive revisions for both Q4 and full-year 2025 [10] Overall Earnings Outlook - The S&P 500 index is expected to see +8% earnings growth in Q4, driven by strong performances from major banks [6] - Double-digit earnings growth is expected for the next two years, with 10 out of 16 Zacks sectors projected to achieve double-digit growth in 2025 [15][16] - Unlike previous years, the 2025 earnings growth will not rely solely on the Mag 7 group, indicating broader sector participation [16]

Investment Rating - Citigroup (C US) received a positive rating with revenue and profit exceeding expectations, and key financial metrics such as ROA, ROE, and ROTE outperforming consensus estimates [1][2][3] Core Views - Citigroup's 24Q4 revenue growth was +12.3% YoY, surpassing Bloomberg consensus of +11.8% [3] - Net interest income grew by -0.7% YoY, better than the expected -2.7%, while non-interest income increased by +61.7%, slightly below the consensus of +66.6% [3] - The cost-to-income ratio improved significantly, dropping by 24.4 percentage points YoY to 67.3%, outperforming the expected 68.5% [3] - Net profit attributable to common shareholders turned positive at $2.583 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $2.424 billion [3] - NIM (Net Interest Margin) increased by 9 basis points QoQ to 2.42%, higher than the expected 2.35% [3] - ROA rose by 0.76 percentage points YoY to 0.46%, and ROE increased by 9.9 percentage points YoY to 5.4%, both outperforming consensus estimates [3] Financial Performance Breakdown Revenue Breakdown - Services revenue grew by 14.6% YoY to $5.175 billion, exceeding the expected 10.2% growth [4] - Markets revenue surged by 35.1% YoY to $4.576 billion, significantly higher than the expected 18.2% growth [4] - Personal Banking revenue increased by 5.9% YoY to $5.232 billion, slightly above the expected 4.8% growth [4] - Wealth revenue grew by 20.4% YoY to $2.003 billion, outperforming the expected 16.9% growth [4] Asset Quality - Non-performing loans (NPL) ratio increased by 8 basis points QoQ to 0.39%, higher than the expected 0.36% [3] - Total credit impairment losses were $2.593 billion, slightly above the consensus estimate of $2.578 billion [3] Capital and Profitability - CET1 (Common Equity Tier 1) ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points YoY to 13.6%, slightly below the expected 13.7% [3] - ROTCE (Return on Tangible Common Equity) improved by 11.20 percentage points YoY to 6.1%, outperforming the expected 5.5% [3] Key Metrics - Gross loans grew by 0.7% YoY to $694.488 billion, slightly below the expected 1.0% growth [4] - Total deposits decreased by 1.9% YoY to $1.284458 trillion, missing the expected 0.7% growth [4]

Technical Issues at Citibank - Citibank is experiencing technical issues related to fraud alerts, long wait times for customer calls to its fraud department, and access to its mobile app [1] - Hundreds of users have reported these issues on DownDetectorcom and social media platform X [1] - The most reported problems were mobile login (85%), online login (10%), and credit card issues (5%) [3] Citibank's Response - Citibank acknowledged the technical issues with its mobile app and stated that it is working to resolve them quickly [2] - Customers are advised to use Citicom or call the number on their cards or monthly statements for servicing needs during this time [2] - The official US customer service account of Citibank responded to customer complaints on X, stating that they are aware of the fraud notification and long hold times and are working on resolving the issues [3] Impact and User Statistics - The outages reported on DownDetectorcom began around 6 am Pacific time and peaked at 1,273 reports higher than normal around 9:30 am [2] - Citibank reported an 8% year-over-year increase in active mobile users to 19 million and a 5% increase in active digital users to 26 million in the third quarter [3]

Core Insights - Citigroup's fourth-quarter earnings reflect a positive trend in the banking sector, driven by consumer spending, resilient macroeconomic conditions, and growth in digital payments and banking [1] Financial Performance - Branded credit card spending volumes increased by 5% to $135 billion, with average loans in the segment rising 6% year on year to $113 billion [2] - The 90-day delinquency rate for credit cards was 1.18%, up 0.11% from the previous year, while the net credit loss rate increased to 3.6%, up 0.4% from the fourth quarter of last year [2] - Active mobile users grew by 8% to 20 million, and installment loans reached $7 billion, a 12% increase from the year-ago period [2] Strategic Initiatives - The CEO highlighted strong momentum across all business segments, with growth driven by both high-end consumers and a robust corporate sector [3] - The company is on track with its restructuring efforts, having simplified its operations and exited consumer businesses in nine countries, with plans to complete exits in the remaining two [4] - Citi Payments Express, an online bill payment service, has been launched in 18 countries, and 4 million retail banking customers have been transitioned to the new banking platform in the U.S. [4] Technological Advancements - The company has accelerated its use of AI, equipping 30,000 developers with tools to enhance efficiency and launching two AI platforms for its workforce [5] - Investments in digital and data capabilities are helping the company gain market share in security services [5] Retail Banking Focus - The company is emphasizing primary checking growth through simplified banking, fostering a relationship-based approach rather than a transactional one, which is also benefiting its wealth management business [6]

Earnings Performance - JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) reported strong fourth-quarter profit and revenue, with its stock up 2.2% to $252.95, marking a 50.3% year-over-year increase and nearing its record high of $254.31 [1][2] - Wells Fargo & Co (WFC) saw a 7.4% increase in stock price to $76.44, its largest single-day gain since Nov 6, and a 62.7% rise over the past 12 months [1][3] - Citigroup Inc (C) added 7.5% to trade at $78.96, achieving a 35.7% increase over the last nine months and reaching its highest level since June 2021 [1][3] Stock Performance and Trends - JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) is on track for its third consecutive daily win, bouncing off its 60-day moving average [2] - Wells Fargo & Co (WFC) is trading close to its all-time peak of $78.13, aiming for its third consecutive gain [3] - Citigroup Inc (C) is eyeing its best day since Nov 6, reflecting strong momentum in its stock performance [3] Options Activity - JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM), Wells Fargo & Co (WFC), and Citigroup Inc (C) are among the top 10 stocks with the most unusual options activity, attracting four times the typical call volume [4] - The most active options contracts are the January 250 call for JPM, the 80 call for C, and the April 82.50 call for WFC, indicating significant investor interest in these stocks [4]