Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China Feihe [2][15]. Core Insights - The company reported total revenue of RMB 18.11 billion for 2025, a decrease of 12.7% year-over-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.94 billion, down 45.7% year-over-year, which fell short of market expectations [3][11]. - In the second half of 2025, revenue was RMB 8.96 billion, down 15.9% year-over-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 940 million, down 44.6% year-over-year, although the decline in profits narrowed and operating margins improved [3][11]. - The company has proactively optimized channel inventory and controlled shipment schedules since May 2025, which, along with reduced government subsidies and impairment of biological assets, has placed short-term pressure on performance. However, following inventory destocking, fundamentals have strengthened, laying the foundation for profit recovery [3][11]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue is projected to be RMB 18.73 billion, RMB 19.47 billion, and RMB 20.36 billion for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to be RMB 2.41 billion, RMB 2.57 billion, and RMB 2.76 billion for the same years [5][15]. - The estimated diluted EPS for 2026, 2027, and 2028 is RMB 0.27, RMB 0.28, and RMB 0.30, respectively [5][15]. Business Structure and Growth - The business structure continues to optimize, with the core infant formula business generating RMB 15.87 billion, accounting for 87.6% of total revenue, and maintaining a market share of 19% [4][12]. - New product launches have shown promising results, with the newly launched products Jiecu and Qicu generating over RMB 69 million in revenue within a month of their release [4][12]. - The company is expanding its overseas business, with revenue from the U.S. and Canada reaching RMB 180 million and RMB 50 million, respectively, showing year-over-year growth of 11.7% and 23.3% [4][12]. Cost Management and Financial Health - The consolidated gross margin for the year was 65.0%, down 1.3 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to an increased proportion of low-margin raw material powder revenue. However, the gross margin for infant formula powder improved to 73.5%, up 2.2 percentage points year-over-year [13]. - The company holds net cash of RMB 16.2 billion, indicating robust operating cash flow [13][14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Feihe (06186.HK) is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 18.11 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 12.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.94 billion yuan, down 45.7% year-on-year. The second half of 2025 saw a revenue of 8.96 billion yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 940 million yuan, down 44.6% year-on-year. The company expects a cumulative dividend payout ratio of 103% for 2025, corresponding to a dividend yield of 7.2% [3][4][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 181.1 billion yuan, a decline of 12.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 19.4 billion yuan, down 45.7% year-on-year. The second half of 2025 recorded a revenue of 89.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 9.4 billion yuan, down 44.6% year-on-year [3][4][6] - The gross margin for the second half of 2025 was 68.3%, an increase of 3.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 10.5%, a decrease of 5.4 percentage points year-on-year [5] Revenue and Growth Drivers - The company is actively adjusting its main business to stabilize operations and is accelerating the growth of its second curve business. The revenue from infant formula and other dairy products in 2025 was 158.6 billion yuan, down 16.8% year-on-year, while nutritional supplements saw a revenue increase of 6.0% year-on-year [4] - The company launched upgraded products and new series, which are expected to contribute positively to revenue recovery in 2026, alongside the effects of fertility subsidies [4] Valuation Metrics - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are projected to be 0.28, 0.29, and 0.30 yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.7, 9.3, and 9.1 for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028 [3][6]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the company [4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that China Feihe's sales and net profit for 2025 fell short of adjusted guidance, with sales at 18.1 billion and net profit at 1.9 billion, highlighting challenges in the infant formula market due to declining birth rates and increased competition [5][4]. - The company aims for steady performance in 2026, targeting sales to remain flat at 18 billion, but faces difficulties due to a shrinking market and stagnant market share [6][4]. - Key factors for future performance include new product launches and channel promotions, with a focus on the performance of new products [4][6]. Summary by Sections Sales and Profit Performance - In 2025, China Feihe recorded sales of 18.1 billion and net profit of 1.9 billion, which were below the adjusted guidance of 18.6 billion and 2 billion respectively [5]. - The second half of 2025 saw a 20% year-on-year decline in infant formula sales, with profit margins pressured by an unfavorable product mix and operational deleveraging [5]. 2026 Sales Goals - The sales target for 2026 is set at 18 billion, which is the same as the 2025 level, but achieving this is challenging due to expected market contraction [6]. - Management reported that Q1 2026 sales reached 26% of the annual target, indicating some progress [6]. Brand Promotion and Cost Structure - The company plans to align its cost structure with business needs while maintaining stable brand promotion investments, which are deemed necessary for supporting new product sales [7]. - There is a potential risk of profit margin pressure due to the required expenses for brand promotion amidst a shrinking market [7]. Catalysts for Future Growth - Key catalysts for recovery include a rebound in birth rates, easing competition in the infant formula market, successful new product launches, enhanced brand equity, and improved price control at the retail level [8]. - Attention should be paid to the inventory digestion process and potential adjustments in future inventory levels [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2025, with a focus on adjusting its infant formula business and expanding its lifecycle nutrition system in response to increased competition and weak demand [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2025, the company achieved a main revenue of 18.113 billion yuan, down 12.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.939 billion yuan, down 45.7% year-on-year [1]. - For the second half of 2025, the main revenue was 8.962 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.9% year-on-year, and net profit was 939 million yuan, down 44.6% year-on-year [1]. - The company proposed a final dividend of 0.129 HKD per share, along with a mid-term dividend of 0.1209 HKD, totaling a dividend payout of 2.03 billion yuan for 2025, with a dividend rate of 104.85% [1]. Market Dynamics - The infant formula sector faced weak demand and intensified competition, with newborn numbers declining to 7.92 million after a brief recovery in 2024 [1]. - The company's market share in the infant formula industry decreased to 19% in 2025 from 20.5% in 2024 [2]. Product Performance - Key products such as Xingfeifan, Zhuorui, and Zhuoyao generated revenues of 4.3 billion, 6.5 billion, and 710 million yuan respectively, with Zhuorui showing a relatively stable performance with a 3% decline [1]. - The company’s gross margin improved significantly to 68.52% in the second half of 2025, up 3.63 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to cost savings from in-house production of core raw materials [1]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively adjusting its infant formula offerings by launching new products and enhancing operational strategies, including a focus on international markets [2]. - Plans for 2026 include launching high-end goat milk powder and customized products, as well as expanding into North America, Mexico, and Indonesia [2]. - The company aims to develop a lifecycle nutrition system, targeting revenue of 300 million yuan from children's nutrition products and 400 million yuan from adult functional nutrition by 2026 [3]. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to see some recovery in operations in 2026, with projected revenues of 2.46 billion, 2.56 billion, and 2.65 billion yuan for 2026-2028 [3]. - The current dividend yield is 6.8%, providing a degree of certainty in returns, with a target valuation of 14 times earnings, corresponding to a target price of 4.3 HKD [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for China Feihe (6186.HK) with a current price of HKD 3.68 [1] Core Insights - In 2025, China Feihe achieved revenue of CNY 18.11 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 1.94 billion, down 45.7% [4][5] - The infant formula business, which accounts for 88% of total revenue, faced pressure due to declining birth rates and increased competition, resulting in a revenue decline of 16.8% [5] - Despite challenges, the company remains a market leader with a 19% market share and high brand recognition [5] - New high-end products launched in 2025 have shown promising performance and are expected to contribute to revenue growth [5][8] - The company plans to maintain a high dividend policy, distributing no less than CNY 2 billion in dividends for 2025 [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2026-2028 have been adjusted downwards due to weak demand for infant formula, with projected net profits of CNY 2.29 billion in 2026 and CNY 2.45 billion in 2027 [8][11] - The overall gross margin for 2025 was 65.0%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points, primarily due to an increase in low-margin raw material sales [7] - The company has a strong cash flow position, with operating cash flow projected to improve in the coming years [13] Market Expansion - In 2025, overseas revenue reached CNY 230 million, with significant growth in the Canadian market, where the company received its first foreign infant formula production license [8] - Plans for 2026 include entering the U.S. and Mexican markets, further expanding North American operations [8] Valuation and Earnings Forecast - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 13x for 2026, 12x for 2027, and 11x for 2028, indicating a favorable valuation for a leading player in the domestic milk powder industry [8][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Feihe (06186.HK) with a target price of HKD 4.3 [1] Core Views - The company reported a main revenue of CNY 18.113 billion for 2025, a decrease of 12.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 1.939 billion, down 45.7% year-on-year. The second half of 2025 saw a revenue of CNY 8.962 billion, down 15.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 939 million, down 44.6% year-on-year. The company plans to distribute a final dividend of HKD 0.129 per share, along with a mid-term dividend of HKD 0.1209, totaling a dividend payout of CNY 2.03 billion, with a payout ratio of 104.85% [1][6] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2025 was CNY 18.113 billion, with a projected growth of 2.7% in 2026, 1.9% in 2027, and 1.6% in 2028 [1][12] - Net profit for 2025 was CNY 1.939 billion, with expected growth of 27.0% in 2026, 4.0% in 2027, and 3.6% in 2028 [1][12] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 was CNY 0.21, projected to increase to CNY 0.27 in 2026, CNY 0.28 in 2027, and CNY 0.29 in 2028 [1][12] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 15 for 2025, decreasing to 12 for 2026 and 2027, and 11 for 2028 [1][12] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to be 1.2 for 2025 and 2026, decreasing to 1.1 in 2028 [1][12] Business Strategy and Market Position - The company is facing pressure in its core infant formula business due to weak demand and increased competition, with a market share of 19% in the infant formula sector, down from 20.5% in 2024 [6] - The company is actively adjusting its product offerings and operations, launching new products and enhancing user engagement across the supply chain [6] - New product launches in the infant formula segment have shown promising sales, with the new series generating CNY 69 million in sales within a month of launch [6] - The company is expanding its international presence, having entered over 1,600 mainstream channels in Canada and capturing a 2% market share [6] Emerging Business Development - The company is developing a full lifecycle nutrition system, focusing on children's and adult nutrition products, with revenue targets of CNY 300 million for children's nutrition and CNY 400 million for adult nutrition by 2026 [6] - The company has seen significant growth in its other dairy products, achieving CNY 2.06 billion in revenue for 2025, a 36.1% increase year-on-year [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the year 2025, primarily due to inventory clearance and reduced government subsidies, with expectations for recovery in 2026 driven by improved inventory management and potential positive impacts from fertility subsidies [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2025, the company achieved revenue and net profit of 18.11 billion and 1.94 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 12.7% and 45.7% [1]. - For the second half of 2025, revenue and net profit were 8.96 billion and 0.94 billion yuan, with declines of 15.9% and 44.6% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 65.0% for the full year, while the net profit margin fell by 6.5 percentage points to 10.7% [3]. Business Segment Performance - The dairy and nutrition products segment saw a revenue decline of 12.6% to 18.00 billion yuan, while the raw milk business experienced a 27.3% drop to 0.11 billion yuan in 2025 [2]. - The infant formula powder industry continued to face demand pressures, leading to a strategic inventory clearance by the company [2]. Regional Performance - In 2025, the company generated revenue of 17.88 billion yuan in mainland China, 0.18 billion yuan in the U.S., and 0.05 billion yuan in Canada, with year-on-year changes of -13.0%, +11.7%, and +23.3%, respectively [2]. Cost and Efficiency - The company's selling and administrative expense ratios increased significantly, with selling expenses rising by 4.9 percentage points to 39.5% and administrative expenses by 1.2 percentage points to 9.3% in 2025 [3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing channel inventory management and monitoring terminal pricing through digital store management and electronic fencing [2]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in operations post-inventory clearance and expects the positive effects of fertility subsidies to materialize [1]. - Revenue forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been adjusted to 18.84 billion and 19.51 billion yuan, reflecting a downward revision of 11% and 12% from previous estimates [3]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are projected to be 0.31, 0.33, and 0.35 yuan, respectively, with a target price of 4.56 HKD based on a 13x price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 4.56 HKD [6][4]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the year 2025, with revenue at 18.11 billion RMB and net profit at 1.94 billion RMB, representing year-on-year decreases of 12.7% and 45.7% respectively. The second half of 2025 also saw declines of 15.9% in revenue and 44.6% in net profit [1][2]. - The company is currently undergoing a channel inventory clearance, which has temporarily impacted revenue. However, there is optimism for recovery in 2026 as inventory depletion is expected to stabilize operations, aided by potential positive effects from fertility subsidies [1][4]. - The gross margin for 2025 decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 65.0%, while the net profit margin fell by 6.5 percentage points to 10.7%. The decline in profitability is attributed to reduced government subsidies, impairment losses from powder sales, and negative operating leverage due to declining revenues [3][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2025, the revenue from dairy products and nutritional products was 18.00 billion RMB, down 12.6% year-on-year, while raw milk business revenue fell by 27.3% to 110 million RMB. The second half of 2025 saw a 15.9% decline in dairy products and a 9.7% decline in raw milk revenue [2][3]. - The company’s gross margin for 2025 was 65.0%, with a slight recovery in the second half to 68.5%. The net profit margin was 10.7% for the full year, with a slight decrease to 10.5% in the second half [3]. Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been adjusted to 18.84 billion RMB and 19.51 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 11% and 12% from previous estimates. The expected net profit for these years is 2.77 billion RMB and 3.01 billion RMB, down 24% and 27% respectively [4][10]. - The company is projected to maintain an EPS of 0.31 RMB in 2026, with a target price based on a PE ratio of 13x, leading to a target price of 4.56 HKD [4][10].

Core Viewpoint - China Feihe's 2025 performance report indicates a strong financial performance with significant revenue and profit figures [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved an annual revenue of 18.11 billion yuan [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.09 billion yuan [1]

第 2 頁 共 2 頁 v 1.1.1 | 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因 | | | --- | --- | | 公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 | | | 股票發行人現金股息公告 | | | 發行人名稱 | 中國飛鶴有限公司 | | 股份代號 | 06186 | | 多櫃檯股份代號及貨幣 | 不適用 | | 相關股份代號及名稱 | 不適用 | | 公告標題 | 截至2025年12月31日止之末期股息 | | 公告日期 | 2026年3月26日 | | 公告狀態 | 新公告 | | 股息信息 | | | 股息類型 | 末期 | | 股息性質 | 普通股息 | | 財政年末 | 2025年12月31日 | | 宣派股息的報告期末 | 2025年12月31日 | | 宣派股息 | 每 股 0.129 HKD | | 股東批准日期 | 2026年6月5日 | | 香港過戶登記處相關信息 | | | 派息金額及公司預設派發貨幣 | 每 股 0.129 HKD | | 匯率 | ...