股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年7月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國宏橋集團有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年8月1日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01378 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 20,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.01 | USD | | 200,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | USD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 20,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.01 | USD | | 200,000,000 | 本月底法定/ ...

花旗银行发布研究报告，指出尽管市场对下半年铝需求有所担忧，但中国铝产能利用率高、新增供应有 限及低库存将支撑铝价保持强劲。报告认为，中国宏桥将受益于此，盈利前景和股息回报具吸引力，因 此继续将其列为行业首选股。花旗将中国宏桥目标价从21港元上调至25.2港元，维持"买入"评级，并上 调了2025至2027年的盈利预测，以反映更高的氧化铝价格和更低的成本预测。 ...

Group 1 - Citi maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378) and raises the target price from HKD 21.0 to HKD 25.2, continuing to list it as a preferred stock in the aluminum industry [1] - Concerns among investors regarding aluminum demand in the second half of 2025 are noted, attributed to a slowdown in the solar industry and the arrival of the off-season [1] - Despite a recent decline in actual aluminum consumption, aluminum prices remain strong due to limited new supply, with China's aluminum capacity utilization rate at a high of 98.5% as of June 2025 and low aluminum inventory levels [1] Group 2 - China Hongqiao is expected to benefit from higher aluminum profits, with an attractive dividend yield of 8.1% based on 2025 performance expectations as of July 29 [1] - The aluminum industry is viewed as a top sector by Citi, with supply constraints in China likely to keep aluminum profits elevated for an extended period [1] - Strong earnings and substantial dividends are anticipated to lead to a revaluation of China Hongqiao's stock [1]

Group 1 - Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378) and raises the target price from HKD 21.0 to HKD 25.2, continuing to list it as a preferred stock in the aluminum industry [1] - Concerns among investors regarding aluminum demand in the second half of 2025 are noted, attributed to a slowdown in the solar industry and the arrival of the off-season [1] - Despite a recent decline in actual aluminum consumption, aluminum prices remain strong due to limited new supply, with China's aluminum capacity utilization rate at a high of 98.5% as of June 2025 and low aluminum inventory levels [1] Group 2 - China Hongqiao is expected to benefit from higher aluminum profits, with an attractive dividend yield of 8.1% based on 2025 performance expectations [1] - The aluminum industry is viewed as a top sector by Citigroup, with supply constraints in China expected to keep aluminum profits elevated for an extended period [1] - Strong earnings and substantial dividends are anticipated to lead to a revaluation of China Hongqiao's stock [1]

花旗预测中国宏桥将继续迎来估值重估，将目标价由21港元上调至25.2港元，评级"买入"，并将其2025 至2027年盈利预测分别上调6%、7%及7%至238亿、267亿及284亿元，以反映更高的氧化铝价格及更低 的成本预测。 花旗发表研究报告指，虽然投资者对下半年铝需求感到担心，但相信中国铝产能利用率已处于高位、新 增供应有限以及铝库存处于低水平，将支持铝价保持强劲，认为中国宏桥将受惠于铝价高企，看好其强 劲的盈利前景及具吸引力的股息回报，继续列其为行业首选股。 ...

文 | 陈明一 近期，韩国股民的海外投资偏好引发市场关注。 据中国基金报，来自韩国证券存托结算院（KSD）旗下SEIBro的数据显示，以成交额计，今年以来截至 7月17日，中国位列韩国股民最喜爱的海外市场第二名，仅次于美国。 值得关注的是，截至7月18日，过去一个月，韩国股民净买入金额排名前10的港股，中国宏桥集团 （HK:01378）以187.83万美元入围。 2024年，中国宏桥集团实现销售收入1561.7亿元、毛利421.6亿元。尤其中国宏桥去年净利大增95%，连 续两年股息率超过10%，过去5年股价上涨超过6倍，间接打破了外界对铝行业"重资产、低利润"的刻板 印象。 如果以时间为线，自去年以来，中国宏桥集团在世界产业资本的舞台上可谓异常活跃：2024年10月，中 国宏桥集团首次参与"香港ESG报告大奖"，斩获"优秀新力军奖"和"卓越碳中和嘉许奖"；2025年2月， 入选《2024胡润中国500强》；7月，集团董事会主席兼行政总裁张波登上"2025福布斯中国最佳CEO榜 单"，成为铝行业的唯一上榜者。 事实上，ESG相关奖项的获得，也印证了中国宏桥集团近年来坚持绿色转型战略的正确。 以水电铝为例，中国宏 ...

摩根士丹利发表研报，重申中国宏桥(01378)"增持"评级，并将其列为行业首选股，同时将目标价从 18.50港元大幅上调34%至24.80港元。报告指出，中国宏桥凭借强劲的铝价支撑、优于同行的成本竞争 力、一体化产业链以及几内亚铁矿项目带来的增量收益，有望获得进一步的估值重估。 摩根士丹利全球大宗商品团队预计，年底前铝价存在上行空间。随着中国需求增长，铝市场供需平衡将 转向短缺。中国政府实施的产能上限政策限制了供应增长，加之美国进口增加、美元走弱以及低库存背 景，共同为铝价提供有力支撑。这将提升冶炼厂的利润率，从而为中国宏桥带来稳健的收益。 另外，成本优势与一体化供应链保障了中国宏桥收益的稳定性。该行指出，电力成本占铝生产总成本的 34%左右，因此降低电价有助于提升中国宏桥的收益。截至2025年中期，其约46%的电力消耗来自自备 电厂，受益于今年以来热煤价格20%的跌幅，自备电厂电价(不含增值税)在2025年一季度降至0.35-0.36 元/千瓦时，远低于山东同期约0.46元/千瓦时的电网电价。此外，中国宏桥正逐步将产能转移至云南， 利用当地廉价水电，雨季电价降至0.34元/千瓦时，较旱季的0.44元/千瓦时 ...

Core Viewpoint - MSCI upgraded China Hongqiao's ESG rating from B to BB, highlighting the company's continuous progress and excellence in ESG management [1][2] Group 1: ESG Rating and Recognition - China Hongqiao has become one of the highest-rated aluminum companies in China according to MSCI ESG ratings, reflecting its successful green and high-quality development [2] - The MSCI ESG rating system evaluates companies based on 27 key issues across environmental, social, and governance dimensions, influencing global investment decisions [1] Group 2: Commitment to ESG Practices - Since 2016, China Hongqiao has consistently published ESG reports, increasing from 40 pages to over 160 pages, showcasing its achievements in ESG [2] - The company has made significant investments in green transformation, innovation, governance, and social responsibility [2] Group 3: Green Development Initiatives - China Hongqiao is leading the industry in energy structure transformation, with over 20% of its aluminum alloy production by 2024 coming from Yunnan, significantly reducing carbon emissions [2] - The company has achieved a 95% reduction in energy consumption and over 85% reduction in carbon emission intensity in its recycled aluminum production [2] Group 4: Carbon Neutrality Goals - China Hongqiao aims to peak carbon emissions by 2025 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2055, with a 12% reduction in carbon emission intensity in 2024 [3] Group 5: Innovation in Aluminum Products - In 2024, China Hongqiao launched several high-performance aluminum alloy materials, reducing component weight by 20% to 40% and carbon emissions by over 10% [4] - The company is focusing on technological innovation to meet the lightweight demands of the new energy vehicle sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao Group Limited (CHGL) is initiated with an OUTPERFORM rating and a target price of HK$23.62, implying an 8.0x 2025 estimated P/E ratio [1] Investment Positives - CHGL is a leader in the aluminum industry with an integrated presence across the green aluminum value chain, focusing on high-quality green development [2] - The company has established a green ecosystem through optimizing energy structure, advancing green energy projects, and developing a circular industry to meet China's carbon neutrality goals [2] Raw Material Self-Sufficiency - CHGL has a high self-sufficiency ratio in raw materials, with a bauxite production base in Guinea (60 million tons annually) and alumina production capacity of 17.5 million tons in Shandong, China, and 2 million tons in Indonesia [3] Energy Optimization and Production Capacity - The company is relocating aluminum production capacity to Yunnan province, aiming to increase its exposure to green power-based aluminum to 46% [4] Downstream Expansion - CHGL is expanding into lightweight automotive materials to further develop a green and recycling industry [5] Market Opportunities - The aluminum sector is expected to present investment opportunities due to a supply shortage, with proactive fiscal and monetary policies likely to improve macro expectations and boost aluminum prices [6] Competitive Advantages - CHGL has four key competitive advantages: substantial upside potential in profit and valuation, high self-sufficiency in raw materials, a high dividend payout ratio (62%) and yield (8.9% in 2024), and a focus on building a green aluminum value chain [7] Differentiation from Market - Unlike the market's focus on earnings driven by price hikes, CHGL's high self-sufficiency and transformation towards a green value chain may enhance product competitiveness and valuation premium [8] Financial Projections - Expected EPS for 2025 and 2026 are Rmb2.63 and Rmb2.70, indicating a CAGR of 6%, with the stock trading at 6.8x 2025e and 6.5x 2026e P/E [8]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the aluminum and alumina industry, with a focus on the performance and outlook of specific companies, particularly China Hongqiao [2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Dynamics**: The upcoming autumn peak season is expected to exacerbate supply-demand tensions in the lithium market, despite anticipated declines in orders for photovoltaic and new energy vehicles [2][3]. - **Alumina Pricing**: The alumina market lacks strong fundamental support; however, prices have risen due to financial and policy stimuli, benefiting related companies' performance [4]. - **Investment Logic**: The selection logic for non-ferrous metals includes high dividends, high yields, high earnings elasticity, and high growth potential. Recommended stocks include Hongqiao, Hongchuang, Zhongfu, and Zhonglv for high dividends, and Chalco, Yun Aluminum, Shenhuo, and Hongqiao for high earnings elasticity [2][6]. Company-Specific Insights - **China Hongqiao's Advantages**: The company boasts significant profit elasticity, high resource self-sufficiency, and a strong dividend policy, with a projected dividend payout ratio of 62% for 2024 [7][8]. - **Revenue Breakdown**: In 2024, revenue from aluminum alloy is expected to account for 66%, alumina 24%, and aluminum processing 10%, with respective gross margins of 60%, 30%, and 10% [8]. - **Resource Supply**: Hongqiao has secured bauxite supply in Guinea, providing approximately 60 million tons annually to the domestic market. The company has an alumina production capacity of 19.5 million tons, with an additional 2 million tons in Indonesia [10]. - **Cost Efficiency**: The average annual C1 cost for electrolytic aluminum is about 10% lower than the market average, showcasing the company's cost advantages [13]. Risks and Challenges - **Supply Risks**: China's alumina supply faces risks due to uneven mineral resource distribution and increasing environmental regulations, leading to high dependence on imported minerals, particularly from Guinea [5][19]. - **Global Supply Challenges**: The global electrolytic aluminum supply growth is declining, with overseas expansions hindered by regulatory approvals and high costs [16][17]. Future Outlook - **Performance Projections**: Zhonghuaxiang's net profits are projected to be 24.4 billion RMB and 25.1 billion RMB for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with earnings per share of 2.63 RMB and 2.7 RMB [21]. - **Dividend Yield and Growth Potential**: The current dividend yield for Zhonghuaxiang is 8%, with potential for a 30-40% price increase if the yield compresses to 5% [22]. The company is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery and rising aluminum prices [22][23]. Additional Noteworthy Points - **Sustainability Initiatives**: The company is actively pursuing a circular economy and modernizing projects to support carbon neutrality goals [11][15]. - **Innovative Transportation**: Hongqiao has developed a new transportation model for resource development in Guinea, significantly reducing logistics time [12]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the dynamics of the aluminum industry, specific company advantages, risks, and future outlooks.