摩根士丹利发表研报指，鉴于9月和10月进入消费旺季的更好价格展望，该行上调了铝价假设；将铝价 按市值调整为每吨平均3287元，导致氧化铝板块的盈利贡献改善。大摩对中国宏桥2025至2027年的每股 盈利预测分别上调6%，目标价从24.8港元上调至26.4港元，维持"增持"评级。大摩又提高联营公司的盈 利贡献，反映出几内亚铝土矿合资企业以及电厂的更好盈利，并预计这一趋势将在2025年下半年持续。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 225.4 billion, 230.9 billion, and 238.7 billion CNY for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.7%, 2.5%, and 3.4% [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 810.4 billion CNY, an increase of 10.1% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders reached 123.6 billion CNY, up 35% year-on-year [2] - The net profit is a historical high, driven by increased sales prices and volumes of aluminum alloy and alumina products, leading to higher gross margins [2] Business Segmentation 1. **Aluminum Alloy**: - Sales volume of 2.906 million tons, up 2.4% year-on-year; revenue of 518.8 billion CNY, an increase of 5.2%; average selling price of 17,853 CNY/ton, up 2.7%; unit cost of 13,347 CNY/ton, up 1.9%; unit gross profit of 4,506 CNY/ton, up 5.4% [3] 2. **Alumina**: - Sales volume of 6.368 million tons, up 15.6% year-on-year; revenue of 206.55 billion CNY, an increase of 27.5%; average selling price of 3,243 CNY/ton, up 10.3%; unit cost of 2,310 CNY/ton, up 5.3%; unit gross profit of 933 CNY/ton, up 24.7% [3] 3. **Aluminum Alloy Processing**: - Sales volume of 392,000 tons, up 3.5% year-on-year; revenue of 80.7 billion CNY, an increase of 6.5%; average selling price of 20,615 CNY/ton, up 2.9%; unit cost of 15,800 CNY/ton, up 0.01%; unit gross profit of 4,815 CNY/ton, up 13.9% [3] Cost Management - The company achieved capital expenditure of 98.93 billion CNY, up 77.9% year-on-year, primarily for quality assurance deposits and new project developments; despite increased capital expenditure, the company improved cost efficiency with a significant reduction in expense ratios [4] - Total sales and management plus financial expenses amounted to 39.6 billion CNY, down 10% year-on-year, with reductions in sales, management, and financial expenses contributing to this improvement [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is recognized as a leading global aluminum alloy producer, leveraging its integrated supply chain and scale advantages to create a competitive edge; high self-sufficiency in bauxite and power reduces production costs [5] - The company has repurchased shares totaling 26.12 billion CNY since 2025 and plans to continue repurchases of at least 30 billion CNY, reflecting confidence in future growth [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huachuang Securities indicates that China Hongqiao (01378) is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.54 billion yuan, 23.09 billion yuan, and 23.87 billion yuan for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 0.7%, 2.5%, and 3.4% [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 81.04 billion yuan, an increase of 10.1% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.36 billion yuan, up 35% year-on-year, achieving a historical high [2][3] - The company’s earnings per share for the first half of 2025 reached 1.314 yuan, representing a 36% increase year-on-year [1] Business Segments 1. **Aluminum Alloy**: - Sales volume reached 2.906 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, generating revenue of 51.88 billion yuan, up 5.2% year-on-year, with an average selling price of 17,853 yuan/ton, a 2.7% increase [3] 2. **Alumina**: - Sales volume was 6.368 million tons, up 15.6% year-on-year, with revenue of 20.655 billion yuan, a 27.5% increase, and an average selling price of 3,243 yuan/ton, up 10.3% [3] 3. **Aluminum Alloy Processing**: - Sales volume reached 392,000 tons, a 3.5% increase year-on-year, with revenue of 8.07 billion yuan, up 6.5%, and an average selling price of 20,615 yuan/ton, a 2.9% increase [3] Cost Management - The company achieved capital expenditures of 9.893 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 77.9% increase year-on-year, primarily for various projects [4] - Despite increased capital expenditures, the company improved cost efficiency, with total sales and management expenses decreasing by 10% year-on-year to 3.96 billion yuan [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is recognized as a leading global aluminum alloy producer, leveraging its integrated supply chain and scale advantages to create a competitive edge [5] - The company has repurchased shares totaling 2.612 billion yuan since 2025 and plans to continue repurchasing shares with a total amount of no less than 3 billion yuan, reflecting confidence in future growth [5]

中国宏桥（01378.HK）涨超3%，最高价达24.56港元，刷新上市以来新高。 （文章来源：证券时报网） ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities reaffirms "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378) with a target price of HKD 26 [1] Company Summary - China Hongqiao's net profit for the first half of 2025 is projected to be RMB 12.36 billion, representing a 35% year-on-year increase, in line with expectations [1] - The profit composition for the first half of 2025 is estimated to be 63% from aluminum alloys, 29% from alumina, and 9% from aluminum products [1] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 65% for the fiscal year 2025, resulting in a dividend yield of 8% [1] - China Hongqiao intends to repurchase at least HKD 3 billion of its shares [1] Industry Summary - Bank of America Securities forecasts aluminum prices in China to be RMB 20,500 per ton for the fiscal years 2025-2026, with a long-term price of RMB 20,000 per ton [1] - Due to a cost advantage of approximately 5% compared to global peers, Chinese aluminum companies are expected to achieve profits of RMB 3,000 to RMB 4,000 per ton, significantly above historical averages of RMB 1,000 to RMB 2,000 per ton [1] - Given the low cyclicality, strong cash flow, and attractive dividend yield, Chinese aluminum companies are projected to attain a price-to-earnings ratio of at least 10 times, comparable to the global average [1] - The West Mound project is expected to commence production by the end of 2025, contributing positively to the company's outlook [1]

美银证券的模型假设中国宏桥2025财年的股息支付率为65%，意味着股息收益率为8%。同时，中国宏 桥还计划回购不低于30亿港元的公司股份。 美银证券预测，2025-2026财年中国铝价为每吨20500元人民币，长期价格为每吨20000元人民币。得益 于相对全球同业约5%的成本优势，中国铝企利润将达到3000-4000元/吨，远超历史均值(1000-2000元/ 吨)。鉴于较低的周期性、强劲的现金流以及可观的股息收益率，中国铝企至少获得与全球平均水平相 当的10倍市盈率。 美银证券维持对中国宏桥的"买入"评级，主要基于：8%的股息收益率、西芒杜项目预计于2025年底投 产，以及市盈率仅8倍。 美银证券发布研报，重申中国宏桥(01378)"买入"评级，目标价为26港元。 美银证券表示，中国宏桥2025年上半年净利润为123.6亿元人民币，同比增长35%，符合预期。根据美 银证券的计算，在中国宏桥2025年上半年的毛利润构成中，铝合金占63%，氧化铝占29%，铝制品占 9%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant financial performance in the first half of 2025, exceeding market expectations with a revenue of 81.039 billion yuan and a net profit of 12.361 billion yuan, alongside a share buyback plan of no less than 3 billion Hong Kong dollars [1][2] Financial Performance - Revenue for H1 2025 reached 81.039 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.12% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.361 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 35.02% [1] - Operating cash flow improved significantly, amounting to 22.306 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 56.38% [2] Product Segment Performance - **Aluminum Alloy Products**: - Sales volume was 2.906 million tons, up 2.4% year-on-year - Average selling price was 17,853 yuan/ton (excluding tax), an increase of 2.7% year-on-year - Revenue generated was 51.878 billion yuan, a growth of 5.2% year-on-year - Gross margin improved to 25.2%, up 0.6 percentage points [1] - **Alumina Products**: - Sales volume reached 6.368 million tons, a rise of 15.6% year-on-year - Average selling price was 3,243 yuan/ton (excluding tax), increasing by 10.3% year-on-year - Revenue was 20.655 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.5% - Gross margin increased to 28.8%, up 3.4 percentage points [1] - **Aluminum Alloy Processing Products**: - Sales volume was 392,000 tons, up 3.5% year-on-year - Average selling price was 20,615 yuan/ton (excluding tax), a 2.9% increase year-on-year - Revenue amounted to 8.074 billion yuan, a growth of 6.5% year-on-year - Gross margin improved to 23.3%, up 2.3 percentage points [1] Cost Management - Selling expenses decreased to 354 million yuan, down 3.4% year-on-year - Administrative expenses were 2.322 billion yuan, a decline of 5.4% year-on-year - Financial expenses reduced to 1.284 billion yuan, down 17.7% year-on-year [2] Shareholder Returns - The company has repurchased approximately 2.61 billion Hong Kong dollars worth of shares, all of which have been canceled (approximately 187 million shares) [2] - A new share buyback plan is announced, with a minimum amount of 3 billion Hong Kong dollars [2] - The company commits to maintaining the same dividend payout ratio in 2025 as in 2024, which has been 48%, 49%, 47%, and 63% from 2021 to 2024 respectively [2] Earnings Forecast - The company projects earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 2.32 yuan, 2.51 yuan, and 2.64 yuan respectively, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 9, 9, and 8 times [2]

机构：申万宏源研究 研究员：郭中伟/马焰明/陈松涛/郭中耀 事件：公司公告2025 年中期业绩，2025 年上半年归母净利润同比+35.0%。1）业绩情况： 公司2025 年上半年实现营业收入810.4 亿元人民币，同比+10.1%；实现归母净利润123.6亿元人民币， 同比+35.0%。2）业绩增长主要原因：2025 年上半年公司铝合金产品及氧化铝产品销售价格均较2024 年同期上涨，且销量同比增加。此外，我们认为2025 年上半年动力煤价格下跌推动电力成本下降，亦 对公司业绩存在正向影响。 2025 年上半年主要产品量价齐升。（1）铝合金产品（电解铝）：实现销量290.6 万吨，同比+2.4%，不 含税销售均价17853 元/吨，同比+2.7%，毛利率25.2%，同比+0.6pct；（2）氧化铝产品：销量636.8 万 吨，同比+15.6%，不含税销售均价3243 元/吨，同比+10.3%，毛利率28.8%，同比+3.4pct；（3）铝合金 加工产品：实现销量39.2 万吨，同比+3.5%，不含税销售均价20615 元/吨，同比+2.9%，毛利率23.3%， 同比+2.3pct。 收购云南宏泰剩余25%股 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated significant profit growth in the first half of 2025, driven by revenue increase, margin expansion, and strict cost control [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 81.039 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1% [1] - Gross profit reached 20.805 billion yuan, with a substantial year-on-year growth of 16.9%, and gross margin improved by 1.5 percentage points to 25.7% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.361 billion yuan, reflecting a strong year-on-year growth of 35.0%, with net margin increasing by 3.1 percentage points to 16.7% [1] - Basic earnings per share surged by 36.0% to 1.31 yuan [1] Group 2: Operational Efficiency - The company benefits from a stable supply of bauxite, with 75.3% sourced from Guinea, ensuring raw material cost advantages [1] - The midstream electrolytic aluminum sales reached 2.906 million tons, with a gross margin increase of 0.6 percentage points to 25.2%, attributed to optimized energy structure, low-carbon technology reducing energy consumption, and digital empowerment [1] - Downstream aluminum alloy processing sales were 392,000 tons, with revenue growth of 6.5% to 8.074 billion yuan, highlighting the successful delivery of high value-added products [1] - The entire supply chain collaboration significantly enhanced efficiency and cost control [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The global electrolytic aluminum market showed a tight balance in supply and demand in the first half of 2025, with China's primary aluminum production accounting for approximately 59.7% of global output and consumption at about 62.6% [2] - The demand from sectors such as power grids, photovoltaics, and new energy vehicles contributed significantly to domestic demand growth [2] - It is expected that electrolytic aluminum prices will remain in the range of 20,600 to 21,300 yuan per ton, while alumina prices will stay between 3,200 and 3,300 yuan, indicating an overall upward price trend [2] Group 4: Shareholder Returns - The company emphasized shareholder returns by repurchasing 1.87 million shares for 2.61 billion HKD in the first half of the year, which directly enhanced earnings per share [2] - The company committed to maintaining the dividend payout ratio at the 2024 level for 2025 and announced a new repurchase plan of no less than 3 billion HKD, showcasing management's confidence in future development [2] Group 5: Investment Rating - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 156 billion yuan, 161.1 billion yuan, and 167.4 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits attributable to shareholders of 24.5 billion yuan, 25 billion yuan, and 25.8 billion yuan respectively [2] - A target price of 29.0 HKD is set, reflecting a 24% upside potential from the current price, with a buy rating assigned [2]

8月21日，中国宏桥(01378)盘中上涨3.29%，截至10:23，报24.48元/股，成交3.02亿元。 中国宏桥集团有限公司是一家涵盖热电、采矿、氧化铝、液态铝合金、铝合金锭、铝合金铸轧产品、铝 母线、高精铝板带箔、新材料的全产业链产铝特大型企业。截至2023年，其总资产达到2003.2亿元，是 全球领先的铝产品制造商之一。 截至2025年中报，中国宏桥营业总收入810.39亿元、净利润123.61亿元。 8月20日，公司以每股23.38-23.46港元回购398.2万股,回购金额9329万港元。 本文源自：金融界 作者：行情君 ...