Group 1 - Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378) and raises the target price from HKD 25.2 to HKD 36, designating it as a preferred stock [1] - The management of China Hongqiao has confirmed its commitment to enhancing shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks, while also seeking greener electricity supplies in China [1] - The chairman of China Hongqiao expresses caution regarding the expansion of aluminum production capacity in Indonesia [1] Group 2 - Citigroup remains optimistic about the aluminum industry, expecting tight supply due to China's production capacity limits (annual capacity of 45.2 million tons) and no explosive capacity increases in Indonesia, which will help maintain high aluminum margins [2] - Earnings forecasts for China Hongqiao for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been raised by +2%, +5%, and +7% respectively, reflecting higher aluminum and alumina sales and increased average aluminum price predictions [2] Group 3 - The company is focused on maintaining a high dividend payout ratio and share buybacks to enhance shareholder returns, with a projected dividend yield of 6.7% for 2026, despite strong stock performance year-to-date [3] - Citigroup anticipates that China Hongqiao will continue to benefit from sustained high aluminum margins and will undergo valuation reassessment [3]

Core Viewpoint - Jefferies maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378) and raises the target price from HKD 26.90 to HKD 34.1, citing strong performance from its core subsidiary and favorable supply-demand dynamics in the aluminum industry [1][3] Financial Performance - China Hongqiao's core subsidiary, Shandong Hongqiao, achieved a net profit of RMB 19.4 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23%. The net profit for Q3 2025 alone reached RMB 6.9 billion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 14.4% and a year-on-year growth of 17.6% [1] - The increase in aluminum and alumina prices contributed approximately RMB 500-600 million to the net profit in Q3, while cost savings from reduced electricity prices during the rainy season in Yunnan amounted to around RMB 300 million [1] Market Conditions - Since Q3 2025, aluminum prices have exceeded expectations due to improved macroeconomic conditions and optimized supply-demand dynamics, with current spot prices surpassing RMB 21,000 per ton [2] - Despite some price corrections in alumina and rising coal and electricity costs, if aluminum prices remain stable, the operating profit for China Hongqiao in Q4 is expected to be on par with Q3 [2] Valuation and Dividends - Jefferies has adjusted its net profit forecasts for China Hongqiao for 2025 and 2026 upwards by 4% and 8%, respectively, to RMB 25.9 billion and RMB 26.7 billion, based on aluminum price assumptions of RMB 20,600 and RMB 20,800 per ton [2] - The target price of HKD 34.1 corresponds to a dividend yield of nearly 6%, based on a projected payout ratio of 63% for 2024, highlighting the company's strong cash flow and commitment to shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks [3]

Core Viewpoint - Jefferies maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378) and raises the target price from HKD 26.90 to HKD 34.1, citing strong performance from its core subsidiary and favorable supply-demand dynamics in the aluminum industry [1][2]. Financial Performance - China Hongqiao's core subsidiary, Shandong Hongqiao, achieved a net profit of RMB 19.4 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23%. The net profit for Q3 2025 alone reached RMB 6.9 billion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 14.4% and a year-on-year growth of 17.6% [1]. - The increase in aluminum and alumina prices contributed approximately RMB 500-600 million to the net profit in Q3, while cost savings from reduced electricity prices during the rainy season in Yunnan added around RMB 300 million [1]. Market Conditions - Since Q3 2025, aluminum prices have exceeded expectations due to improved macroeconomic conditions and industry supply-demand optimization, with current spot prices surpassing RMB 21,000 per ton [2]. - Despite some price corrections in alumina and rising coal and electricity costs, if aluminum prices remain stable, the operating profit for China Hongqiao in Q4 is expected to match that of Q3 [2]. Debt and Valuation - The impact of convertible bond fair value changes on net profit is expected to decrease significantly in the second half of 2025, as the majority of the bonds issued in 2021 have been converted [2]. - Jefferies has raised its net profit forecasts for China Hongqiao for 2025 and 2026 by 4% and 8%, respectively, to RMB 25.9 billion and RMB 26.7 billion, based on aluminum price assumptions of RMB 20,600 and RMB 20,800 per ton [2]. Dividend and Shareholder Returns - Jefferies sets a target price based on a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 11 times for 2026, with a corresponding dividend yield of nearly 6% based on a 63% payout ratio for 2024 [3]. - The company continues to generate strong cash flow and provides substantial returns to shareholders through stable dividends (over 60% payout ratio) and share buybacks, which supports the "Buy" rating [3].

Core Viewpoint - Jefferies has raised the target price for China Hongqiao following the robust third-quarter performance of its main subsidiary [1] Group 1 - Jefferies increased the target price from HKD 26.90 to HKD 34.10 [1] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating on China Hongqiao [1]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年10月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01378 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 20,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.01 | USD | | 200,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | USD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 20,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.01 | USD | | 200,000,000 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： USD 200,000,000 第 1 頁 共 ...

Core Insights - The company reported strong performance for its subsidiary Shandong Hongqiao in Q3 2025, with revenue of 116.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and a net profit of 19.37 billion yuan, up 23% year-on-year [1] - The profitability of electrolytic aluminum has significantly improved, with Q3 2025 industry profit reaching 4,125 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 128% [1] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Shandong Hongqiao achieved revenues of 40.2 billion yuan in Q1, 38 billion yuan in Q2, and 38.7 billion yuan in Q3, with year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 2%, and 2% respectively [1] - Net profits for the same quarters were 6.4 billion yuan, 6.1 billion yuan, and 6.9 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 47%, 11%, and 18% respectively [1] Market Dynamics - The average price of electrolytic aluminum in Q3 was 20,711 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3% [1] - The cost of electrolytic aluminum production in Shandong was 15,299 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1% quarter-on-quarter, while in Yunnan it was 15,445 yuan per ton, down 6% quarter-on-quarter [1] Capacity and Strategic Moves - The company plans to transfer a total of 152,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity from Shandong to Yunnan between 2025 and 2027, with no further adjustments expected post-2028 [2] - The company issued 300 million USD in convertible bonds due in 2030, with an initial conversion price of 20.88 HKD per share, aimed at refinancing existing offshore debt and general corporate purposes [2] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 24 billion yuan, 25.5 billion yuan, and 27.1 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 11.9, 11.2, and 10.5 [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its potential for growth through capacity realization and cost reduction strategies [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao [5] Core Views - The performance of Shandong Hongqiao in Q3 2025 was impressive, with revenue reaching 116.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and net profit of 19.37 billion yuan, up 23% year-on-year [1] - The profitability of electrolytic aluminum has rapidly improved, with the average price in Q3 2025 at 20,711 yuan per ton, a 6% increase year-on-year [1] - The company plans to transfer electrolytic aluminum capacity from Shandong to Yunnan, with a total of 44.8 million tons, 24.1 million tons, and 83.1 million tons scheduled for 2025 to 2027 [2] - The company issued 300 million USD of convertible bonds due in 2030, with an initial conversion price of 20.88 HKD per share [2] - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 24 billion, 25.5 billion, and 27.1 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.9, 11.2, and 10.5 [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2025 is estimated at 163.76 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.9% year-on-year [4] - The net profit for 2025 is projected to be 24.03 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.4% [4] - The latest diluted EPS for 2025 is expected to be 2.52 yuan per share [4] - The return on equity (ROE) for 2025 is estimated at 18.2% [4] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 256.68 billion yuan by 2025 [9]

Group 1 - UBS released a performance review report on China Hongqiao Group, focusing on its core subsidiary Shandong Hongqiao's Q3 2025 performance, which exceeded expectations, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - Shandong Hongqiao's net profit for the first nine months of 2025 reached 19.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23%, achieving 87% of the market consensus for 2025 and 84% of UBS's forecast [1] - The net profit for Q3 2025 was estimated at 6.9 billion yuan, a 17% year-on-year increase, surpassing UBS's previous estimate of 6.5 billion yuan, with overall performance slightly exceeding market expectations by 5-7% [1] Group 2 - Factors impacting performance included an 11 billion yuan gross profit change due to fluctuations in aluminum and alumina profit margins, alongside a 1 billion yuan reduction in selling, general, and administrative expenses, although income from joint ventures decreased by 300 million yuan [1] - UBS maintains a positive outlook for the aluminum industry over the next two years, anticipating continued growth in aluminum demand and overall industry profitability, with China Hongqiao positioned as an industry leader with significant scale advantages [1] - UBS forecasts diluted earnings per share (EPS) for China Hongqiao at 2.66 yuan, 3.12 yuan, and 3.33 yuan for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively, all above market consensus, with stable revenue projections around 1.6 trillion yuan from 2025E to 2029E [2]

Group 1 - UBS reported that China Hongqiao Group's (01378) Q3 2025 performance exceeded expectations, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - Shandong Hongqiao's net profit for the first nine months of 2025 reached 19.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23%, contributing to an estimated net profit of 21 billion yuan for China Hongqiao, achieving 87% of the market consensus and 84% of UBS's expectations [1] - The net profit for Q3 2025 was estimated at 6.9 billion yuan for Shandong Hongqiao, a 17% year-on-year increase, surpassing UBS's previous forecast of 6.5 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - UBS maintains a positive outlook on the aluminum industry for the next two years, believing there is still growth potential in aluminum demand, with overall industry profitability supported [1] - China Hongqiao, as an industry leader, has a scale advantage with 6.46 million tons of aluminum and 19.5 million tons of alumina, and a robust financial structure, expected to further release profit potential during industry upcycles [1] - UBS identified two key risks for China Hongqiao: weaker-than-expected supply-demand balance for aluminum and alumina leading to price declines, and unexpected increases in electricity prices in China, particularly in Yunnan, which could raise production costs [2] Group 3 - UBS forecasts optimistic earnings for China Hongqiao, estimating diluted EPS of 2.66 yuan, 3.12 yuan, and 3.33 yuan for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively, all above market consensus [2] - Revenue is projected to stabilize around 1.6 trillion yuan from 2025E to 2029E, with EBIT margins maintained in the range of 22%-25%, indicating robust profitability [2]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup reaffirms a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378) and maintains it as a top recommendation following the strong performance of its subsidiary Shandong Hongqiao in the third quarter [1] Financial Performance - Shandong Hongqiao reported total revenue of 116.926 billion yuan in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 6.23% [1] - The net profit for the first nine months reached 19.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23% [1] - In Q3, the net profit was 6.9 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 17% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13% (not adjusted) [1] Market Factors - The quarter-on-quarter net profit growth is attributed to rising prices of aluminum and alumina, along with reduced electricity prices during the rainy season [1] - Shandong Hongqiao's net profit accounted for 78% to 107% of China Hongqiao's net profit since the beginning of 2023, mainly adjusted for minority interests, overseas operations (including alumina and bauxite), and fair value losses related to convertible bonds [1]