Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Hongqiao (01378) is "Buy" with a maintained rating [1] Core Views - The company has significantly exceeded expectations in operational performance, with a notable increase in profit levels [1] - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 133.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.7% [1] - The increase in net profit is attributed to the decline in raw material costs for electrolytic aluminum and contributions from associated companies [1] - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio of approximately 47.2% [1] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit - In H2 2023, the company recorded revenue of 67.89 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.3%, and a net profit of 9.00 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 266.5% [1] - The gross profit for the aluminum alloy segment reached 16.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.8% [1] Cost and Margin Analysis - The average selling price, operating cost, and gross profit per ton for aluminum alloy were 16,465 yuan, 13,602 yuan, and 2,863 yuan, respectively, showing year-on-year changes of -6.4%, -10.6%, and +20.8% [1] - The company benefited from lower costs of prebaked anodes and coal, leading to significant improvements in gross margins [1] Cash Flow and Dividends - The company achieved a net operating cash flow of 22.40 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 193.9% [1] - The proposed dividend for 2023 is 0.29 HKD per share, with a total dividend payout of approximately 5.4 billion yuan [1] Future Outlook - For 2024, the company expects a favorable supply-demand situation for electrolytic aluminum, with net profit estimates revised upwards to 15.16 billion yuan and 15.55 billion yuan for 2024 and 2025, respectively [1] - The company is projected to have a low price-to-earnings ratio of 5.1 and 4.9 times for 2024 and 2025, respectively, compared to industry peers [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative price increase of over 15% in the next 6 to 12 months compared to the benchmark index [13]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 136.2 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 1%, and a net profit of 11.5 billion yuan, up 32% year-on-year. The total dividend declared for the year is 0.63 HKD per share, corresponding to a dividend yield of 8.53% [2][3]. - The report highlights the growth in both production and sales of electrolytic aluminum, with production reaching 6.265 million tons (up 3.7%) and sales at 5.748 million tons (up 5.0%). The gross profit margin for aluminum alloy products improved to 17.4%, an increase of 3.9 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is advancing the integration of the aluminum industry with clean energy, increasing the proportion of hydropower resources and accelerating the construction of photovoltaic projects [2][3]. - The report predicts a gradual increase in aluminum prices due to changes in supply and demand dynamics, with expected prices of 21,000, 23,000, and 25,000 yuan per ton for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 158.71 billion yuan in 2024, 179.34 billion yuan in 2025, and 196.625 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 17%, 13%, and 10% respectively [1][4]. - Net profit is expected to reach 18.953 billion yuan in 2024, 21.727 billion yuan in 2025, and 25.156 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 65%, 15%, and 16% [1][4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.00 yuan in 2024, 2.29 yuan in 2025, and 2.65 yuan in 2026 [1][4]. Industry Insights - The report discusses the significant changes in the supply and demand for electrolytic aluminum, emphasizing the increasing importance of renewable energy sources in the production process [3][4]. - It notes that the domestic electrolytic aluminum market is characterized by low inventory and high capacity utilization, with future supply heavily reliant on new overseas capacities [3][4]. - The report anticipates a structural increase in aluminum prices, with the industry's "resource-like" attributes being re-evaluated as the market dynamics evolve [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 10.80 HKD, indicating an expected upside from the current price of 8.38 HKD [4][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 133.62 billion RMB for 2023, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, and a net profit of 11.46 billion RMB, up 31.7% year-on-year [2][3]. - The increase in profit is attributed to higher sales volumes and a decrease in raw material prices, with a gross profit margin of 15.7%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - For 2024, the company expects continued growth driven by rising alumina prices and further declines in raw material costs, projecting a net profit of 16 billion RMB [3][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved an alumina production of approximately 19.5 million tons, with sales of 10.37 million tons, a 25% increase year-on-year. Electrolytic aluminum production was 6.27 million tons, with sales of 5.75 million tons, reflecting a 3.7% and 5% increase respectively [3]. - The average price of alumina was 2,919 RMB/ton, down 1% year-on-year, while the average price of electrolytic aluminum was 18,700 RMB/ton, down 6.2% [3]. Future Projections - For 2024, the company anticipates alumina production to remain at full capacity, with expected sales of 10.67 million tons. Electrolytic aluminum production is projected at 6.3 million tons, with sales of 5.61 million tons [3]. - The report forecasts an increase in alumina prices to 3,200 RMB/ton due to ore shortages, while electrolytic aluminum prices are expected to average 19,000 RMB/ton, a 1.6% increase year-on-year [3]. Dividend Policy - The company announced a cash dividend of 0.29 HKD per share for 2023, with a total dividend payout of 0.63 HKD per share, representing a 23.5% increase year-on-year [3].

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 中国宏桥(01378.HK) 2024年03月25日 中国宏桥：业绩大幅提升，高分 买入（维持） 所属行业：原材料业/一般金属及矿石 红持续 当前价格(港币)：7.39元 证券分析师 投资要点 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 事件。公司发布2023年年报，报告期内，公司实现营业总收入1336亿元，同比  邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 提升约1.5%；实现归母净利润115亿元，同比提升约31.7%。 张崇欣 资格编号：S0120522100003 电解铝利润提升为主要利润贡献。从公司的产品产销情况来看，2023年公司分别  邮箱：zhangcx＠tebon.com.cn 销售铝合金产品574.8万吨，较去年同期547.3万吨同比提升约5.0%；销售氧化 高嘉麒 铝产品1037.4万吨，同比提升约25.0%；销售铝合金加工产品58万吨，同比减 资格编号：S0120523070003 少约5%。产品价格方面，铝合金产品销售价格较去年同比下降约 6.4%至16464 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 元/吨（不含增值税 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][2] Core Views - The company's 2023 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 1336.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 114.61 billion yuan, up 31.7% year-on-year. The increase in net profit is primarily due to higher overall product gross margins and reduced administrative expenses [1] - The average gross margin for products slightly improved, with alumina sales increasing by 25% year-on-year, contributing to performance growth. The company achieved electrolytic aluminum production and sales of 626.5 million tons and 574.8 million tons, respectively, representing increases of 3.7% and 5% year-on-year [1] - The company is advancing its green energy initiatives, with the successful relocation of its Yunnan electrolytic aluminum production base and the commencement of a low-carbon aluminum project, which is expected to enhance the proportion of renewable energy used [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 133,624 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 11,461 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 31.7% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 1.21 yuan, up 29.2% year-on-year. The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are expected to be 12,523 million yuan, 13,564 million yuan, and 14,562 million yuan, respectively [6][2] - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, with a cash dividend of 449.27 billion yuan since 2006, and a dividend yield of 9.86% in 2023, up 2.94 percentage points year-on-year [2]

2024年3月25日 公司研究 成本下行驱动业绩增长，持续高分红回馈股东 ——中国宏桥（1378.HK）公告点评 要点 增持（维持） 当 前价：7.39港元/股 事件：公司2024年3月22日晚发布2023年业绩，实现收入约1336亿元，同比增 长约1.5%；毛利209.5亿元，同比增长14.9%；公司股东应占净利润114.6亿元， 同比增长31.7%。 作者 点评： 分析师：王招华 执业证书编号：S0930515050001 2023年延续高分红，对应当前股价股息率为8.5%。公司董事会决议拟每股派29 021-52523811 港仙，2023年中期特别派息为每股34港仙，即2023年累计派息每股63港仙（2022 wangzhh@ebscn.com 分析师：方驭涛 年派息每股51港仙），保持了较高分红率，对应2024年3月22日股价的股息率为 执业证书编号：S0930521070003 8.5%。 021-52523823 fangyutao@ebscn.com 煤价下行、阳极价格下跌带来成本下降。公司2023年铝合金产品成本约13602 元/吨，同比下降10.6%，主要原因为动力煤、预焙阳极价格下降。1 ...

Financial Performance - Revenue increased by approximately 1.5% year-on-year, reaching approximately RMB 133,623,632,000[2] - Gross profit rose by approximately 14.9% year-on-year, amounting to approximately RMB 20,954,597,000[2] - Annual profit increased by approximately 27.4% year-on-year, totaling approximately RMB 12,497,752,000[2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders increased by approximately 31.7% year-on-year, reaching approximately RMB 11,460,678,000[2] - Basic earnings per share increased by approximately 29.2% year-on-year, recorded at approximately RMB 1.2095[2] - Total comprehensive income for the year, after tax, was RMB 12,488,002,000, compared to RMB 10,476,523,000 in the previous year[4] - The company reported a net profit of RMB 11,460,678 thousand for 2023, up 31.5% from RMB 8,701,953 thousand in 2022[25] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately RMB 11.46 billion, an increase of about 31.7% year-on-year, mainly due to increased overall gross profit and reduced administrative expenses[44] Assets and Liabilities - The asset-liability ratio decreased by approximately 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, to approximately 47.0%[2] - Non-current assets increased to RMB 112,925,122,000 from RMB 98,174,101,000 year-on-year[5] - Current liabilities decreased to RMB 74,029,126,000 from RMB 71,373,124,000 year-on-year[6] - Total equity increased to RMB 106,256,445,000 from RMB 96,305,777,000 year-on-year[6] - The total liabilities of the group as of December 31, 2023, were approximately RMB 94,063,640,000, compared to approximately RMB 89,436,014,000 at the end of 2022[55] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from aluminum products in 2023 was RMB 133,623,632 thousand, a slight increase of 1.5% from RMB 131,699,427 thousand in 2022[15] - The revenue from liquid aluminum alloy was RMB 83,750,044 thousand in 2023, down 2.5% from RMB 85,833,912 thousand in 2022[15] - The revenue from steam supply increased to RMB 924,918 thousand in 2023 from RMB 765,353 thousand in 2022, marking a growth of 21%[15] - The company's aluminum alloy products revenue was approximately RMB 94.64 billion, a decrease of about 1.6% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in selling prices[46] - The revenue from alumina products was approximately RMB 26.56 billion, an increase of about 24.1% year-on-year, attributed to higher sales volumes[46] Expenses and Costs - Sales and distribution expenses for the year ended December 31, 2023, were approximately RMB 755,274,000, an increase of about 26.4% from approximately RMB 597,679,000 in the same period last year[48] - Administrative expenses decreased by approximately 16.5% to about RMB 4,952,875,000 for the year ended December 31, 2023, compared to approximately RMB 5,933,759,000 in the previous year[49] - Financial expenses increased by approximately 8.2% to about RMB 3,267,938,000 for the year ended December 31, 2023, due to an increase in total borrowings and rising average financing costs[50] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - Cash and cash equivalents increased by approximately 15.8% to about RMB 31,721,122,000 as of December 31, 2023, compared to approximately RMB 27,384,542,000 at the end of 2022[51] - The net cash inflow from operating activities for the year ended December 31, 2023, was approximately RMB 22,402,302,000[51] - The group’s capital expenditure for the year ended December 31, 2023, was approximately RMB 6,046,330,000, primarily for quality assurance deposits and construction expenditures for various projects[51] Shareholder Information - The company declared a special interim dividend of HKD 0.22 per share for 2023, compared to no special dividend in 2022[24] - The company proposed a final dividend of HKD 0.29 per share, totaling HKD 0.63 per share for the year, compared to HKD 0.51 per share in 2022[36] - The significant shareholder, Shiping Trust Company, holds 6,076,513,573 shares, accounting for 64.13% of the total issued share capital[71] - Ms. Zhang Hongxia and Ms. Zhang Yanhong, as part of a concerted action arrangement, are deemed to have interests in 6,085,383,573 shares, which is approximately 64.22% of the total issued share capital[71] Corporate Governance - The board consists of four executive directors, four non-executive directors, and four independent non-executive directors, ensuring a balanced governance structure[64] - The board of directors consists of twelve members, including four executive directors and eight non-executive directors, ensuring a balance of power and authority[91] - The company has adhered to the corporate governance code, with the exception of the separation of roles between the Chairman and the CEO, which is held by Mr. Zhang Bo due to his extensive management experience and industry knowledge[89] Compliance and Reporting - The audit committee reviewed the financial performance for the year ending December 31, 2023, and confirmed compliance with accounting standards and appropriate disclosures[77] - The annual performance announcement and annual report will be published by April 19, 2024, on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the company's website[90] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on green development and has made significant progress in building a high-end aluminum industry system[37] - The group is committed to high-quality development and will accelerate the implementation of new energy projects while focusing on technology transformation and lightweight industry ecosystem construction[60] - The group aims to embrace green initiatives and innovation to advance towards high-end industrial chains and new industrialization[60]

智通财经APP迅，中国宏桥(01378)发布公告，于2024年3月6日(交易时段后)，魏桥铝电(公司的间接非全资附属公司)、Winning Logistics及Winning Consortium Holdings Pte. Ltd.(WCH)订立WCH股东协议，据此，(其中包括)魏桥铝电须根据WCH股东协议的条款履行股东义务。 于2024年3月6日(交易时段后)，魏桥铝电(作为担保人)、WCS及宝武西芒杜(上海)亦就 WCH在矿山项目下的特定出资义务订立以WCS为受益人的矿山担保协议以及魏桥铝电(作为担保人)、WCSI及宝武西芒杜(上海)就WCH在基建项目下的特定出资义务订立以WCSI为受益人的基建担保协议。根据担保协议，魏桥铝电已同意就WCH如期履行所有担保义务提供最高总金额17.80亿美元的担保(间接包含魏桥铝电有关其于WCH股东协议下的相关出资的义务)。 公告称，几内亚西芒杜的底土蕴藏着世界上最大的高品位铁矿石未开发储量。预计铁矿石项目将产生新的商机及收益来源，需要大量资金投入。在本公告日期，魏桥铝电及Winning Logistics各自持有WCH的 50%股权，而WCH间接拥有铁矿石项目中铁矿山1 ...

智通财经APP获悉，铝业股早盘普涨，截至发稿，中国宏桥(01378)涨3.92%，报6.37港元；中国铝业(02600)涨2.49%，报4.11港元；兴发铝业(00098)涨0.48%，报6.29港元。 消息面上，据报道，数月来，欧盟一直在讨论禁止从俄罗斯进口铝的制裁措施。消息人士称，欧盟因俄乌冲突爆发2周年而推出的最新制裁方案中并未包含针对铝的新制裁措施，但预计欧盟将很快提出另一项新的进口禁令方案。 浙商证券指出，电解铝价格在19000区间震荡，氧化铝价格出现回调。受氧化铝成本回调以及电解铝价格微增影响，利润周度环比回升7.39%。春节前后受放假/气候等影响，铝锭/铝棒存在累库，上周开始铝棒开始去库，下游开工率同比明显改善，供需面存在向上动力。 ...

Financial Performance - For the six months ended June 30, 2023, the company's revenue was approximately RMB 65,733,870,000, a decrease of about 4.4% year-on-year[5]. - Gross profit for the same period was approximately RMB 5,892,364,000, representing a decline of about 60.6% year-on-year[5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately RMB 2,456,623,000, a decrease of about 68.7% year-on-year[5]. - Basic earnings per share were approximately RMB 0.259, down 69.5% compared to RMB 0.850 in the same period last year[5]. - Profit before tax for the six months ended June 30, 2023, was RMB 3,843,698 thousand, compared to RMB 11,230,595 thousand in the prior year, reflecting a decline of about 65.8%[46]. - Net profit for the period was RMB 2,972,024 thousand, down from RMB 8,685,276 thousand, a decrease of approximately 65.8%[46]. - Total comprehensive income for the period was RMB 3,298,802 thousand, compared to RMB 8,972,516 thousand in the previous year, representing a decline of about 63.3%[46]. - The overall gross profit margin for the group's products was approximately 9.0%, a decrease of about 12.8 percentage points from approximately 21.8% in the same period last year[16]. Cash and Liquidity - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to RMB 29,776,735,000, a decline of 39.5% year-on-year[6]. - Cash and cash equivalents as of June 30, 2023, were approximately RMB 29,776,735,000, an increase of about 8.7% from RMB 27,384,542,000 as of December 31, 2022[19]. - The company incurred a net cash outflow from investing activities of RMB 6,060,284 thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2023, compared to RMB 3,251,163 thousand in the same period of 2022, reflecting an increase in investment expenditures[51]. - The cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period were significantly impacted by the cash outflows from operating and investing activities, highlighting the need for careful cash management[51]. - The company’s total cash and cash equivalents at the beginning of the period were RMB 27,384,542, down from RMB 49,227,282, indicating a decrease of 44.5%[52]. Debt and Financing - The total liabilities of the group as of June 30, 2023, were approximately RMB 90,744,891,000, with a debt-to-asset ratio of about 47.9%[22]. - The debt/EBITDA ratio increased to 3.6 from 1.8, an increase of 1.8 times[6]. - The company raised bank loans amounting to RMB 16,549,775, a significant increase from RMB 8,611,274 in the previous year, representing a growth of 92.5%[52]. - The repayment of bank loans amounted to RMB 15,846,157, which is an increase of 88.5% compared to RMB 8,399,620 in the previous year[52]. - The company reported a total bank borrowings of RMB 36,353,135,000 as of June 30, 2023, compared to RMB 35,527,759,000 as of December 31, 2022, showing an increase of about 2.3%[94]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from aluminum alloy products was approximately RMB 45,979,267,000, accounting for about 69.9% of total revenue, a decrease of about 8.9% year-on-year[16]. - Revenue from alumina products was approximately RMB 13,531,809,000, accounting for about 20.6% of total revenue, an increase of about 26.4% year-on-year due to a 33.6% increase in sales volume[16]. - Revenue from liquid aluminum alloy decreased to RMB 40,359,290 thousand, down 10.3% from RMB 44,912,495 thousand year-on-year[60]. - The group reported an aluminum alloy product output of approximately 3.059 million tons, a year-on-year increase of about 4.4%[12]. Operational Efficiency - The group’s administrative expenses for the six months ended June 30, 2023, were approximately RMB 2,808,009,000, a decrease of about 8.2% compared to approximately RMB 3,060,161,000 in the same period last year[17]. - The company plans to enhance internal management, optimize resource allocation, and improve operational efficiency[27]. - The company is committed to maintaining a solid operational deployment and a capital optimization strategy amidst global economic uncertainties[27]. Sustainability and Development - The company aims to deepen its core value of green development and capture new opportunities in a complex international environment[7]. - The group aims to achieve carbon peak by 2025 and carbon neutrality by 2055, with ten key initiatives for carbon neutrality[9]. - The group is actively investing in wind and solar energy to gradually replace fossil fuels and optimize its energy structure[9]. - The company is focusing on sustainable development strategies to promote economic, social, and environmental progress[27]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2023, the major shareholder, Shih Ping Trust Company, holds approximately 64.13% of the issued share capital[29]. - China Hongqiao Group Limited, as a beneficial owner, also holds 64.13% of the shares[29]. - The company plans to pay an interim dividend of HKD 0.12 per share and a special dividend of HKD 0.22 per share, totaling approximately HKD 3,221,683,000[67]. Governance and Compliance - The audit committee, consisting of three independent non-executive directors, reviewed the interim financial results for the six months ending June 30, 2023, and confirmed compliance with relevant accounting standards[36]. - The company has adhered to the Corporate Governance Code, with the exception of the CEO also serving as the Chairman of the Board, which is justified by the board's belief in the benefits of this arrangement[40]. - The company confirmed that all directors complied with the standards regarding securities transactions during the reporting period[39]. Market Dynamics - The company will continue to closely monitor market dynamics and flexibly adjust strategic layouts to seize opportunities and respond to challenges[27]. - The average price of aluminum on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was approximately $2,363 per ton, a year-on-year decrease of about 23.4%[11]. - The company’s revenue from the Indian market increased to RMB 926,023 thousand, a rise of 48.9% from RMB 621,468 thousand year-on-year[61]. - The company’s revenue from North America decreased to RMB 517,060 thousand, down 42.6% from RMB 901,689 thousand in the previous year[61].