M N 17 Jun 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update China Hongqiao (1378 HK) A key beneficiary of tight aluminum supply trading at attractive valuation Target Price HK$17.90 Resume coverage with BUY. On the back of tight global aluminum (Al) supply Up/Downside 50.4% (capacity control in China & disruption of bauxite supply) but rising demand Current Price HK$11.90 (growth of EV & solar power + stabilisation of construction demand following China’s U-turn on property policy), ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378.HK) as it initiates coverage [2]. Core Views - The company is a leader in the electrolytic aluminum industry with an annual production capacity of 6.46 million tons, benefiting from stable costs and a booming aluminum sector. It is strategically positioned to reduce risk exposure by vertically integrating raw materials and enhancing product value through aluminum processing [5][27]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at CNY 144.1 billion, CNY 146.7 billion, and CNY 149.0 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 5.8%, 1.8%, and 1.6% respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach CNY 19.53 billion, CNY 19.57 billion, and CNY 19.58 billion, with significant growth in 2024 at 70.4% [5][8]. - The company has a high dividend payout ratio of 37.4% since its listing in 2011, with a dividend yield of 9.86% in 2023, indicating strong long-term investment value [7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Hongqiao has established a comprehensive industrial chain over 30 years, transitioning from textile to aluminum production, and is now a leading player in the electrolytic aluminum sector [14]. - The company has a concentrated and stable ownership structure, primarily controlled by the Zhang family, which holds 64.13% of the shares [17]. Business Model and Strategy - The company has integrated its operations across the aluminum value chain, with a focus on electrolytic aluminum production and raw material sourcing from Guinea and Australia, achieving over 100% self-sufficiency in alumina [27][29]. - It is also moving part of its production capacity to Yunnan to enhance its green energy usage, with plans to relocate 396,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity, representing 61.3% of its total capacity [37][38]. Financial Performance - The company has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.75% in revenue from 2016 to 2023, with significant fluctuations in net profit due to raw material cost volatility [19][24]. - The financial structure has improved, with a reduction in the debt-to-asset ratio from 67.94% in 2016 to 46.96% in 2023, and a notable decrease in financial expenses [26]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the high demand in the aluminum industry, with a projected increase in profits due to favorable raw material prices and operational efficiencies [5][19]. - The strategic focus on lightweight materials and recycling initiatives aligns with global sustainability trends, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [35].

Summary of the Conference Call on China Hongqiao Company Overview - **Company Name**: China Hongqiao - **Core Business**: The company primarily engages in the production of aluminum products, including bauxite, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum processing products. The core business is electrolytic aluminum, supported by bauxite and alumina production, as well as thermal power generation [3][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments - **Ownership Structure**: China Hongqiao is a private enterprise with the largest shareholder being China Hongqiao Holdings, holding 64.13% of the shares. The founding family, led by Zhang Shiping, controls the company through a family trust [4][5]. - **Production Capacity**: The company has an electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 6.46 million tons, making it the largest electrolytic aluminum producer in China. The capacity is compliant with regulations [5][6]. - **Business Segments**: The business is divided into three main segments: bauxite mining, alumina production, and electrolytic aluminum production. The company has significant production capacities in Shandong and Yunnan [6][7][8]. - **Environmental Regulations**: The company has faced challenges due to increasing environmental regulations, particularly in Shandong, which has affected its production plans [7][8][16]. - **Financial Performance**: In 2022, the company reported a net profit of 11.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 30%. The production of aluminum alloy reached approximately 5.75 million tons, an increase of 275,000 tons from 2022 [19][20]. - **Dividend Policy**: The company has a high dividend payout ratio, maintaining around 50% from 2021 to 2023, with a dividend yield consistently above 5% [21][23]. - **Debt Levels**: The company's debt-to-asset ratio has decreased over the years, reaching 47% by the end of 2023, down from 67-68% in 2016-2017 [23][24]. Additional Insights - **Iron Ore Investment**: The company has invested in iron ore, holding a stake in the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, which is expected to produce 12 million tons annually starting in 2026. This could significantly enhance the company's profitability [22][24][25]. - **Future Profit Projections**: For the current year, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of approximately 18.1 billion yuan, with potential for higher earnings based on current market conditions [26][28]. - **Market Valuation**: The company's market capitalization is around 101.3 billion yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio estimated at approximately 6 times, indicating it is undervalued compared to peers [28][29]. Conclusion China Hongqiao is positioned as a leading player in the aluminum industry, with a strong production capacity and a focus on cost management through self-generated power. The company's strategic investments and solid financial performance make it an attractive option for investors, despite facing regulatory challenges and market fluctuations.

Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The conference call pertains to the Chinese metal industry, specifically focusing on the company "Guoqing Metal" and its operations in the sector [1]. Core Points and Arguments - The call began with a welcome message and an introduction to the participants, indicating that all attendees were on mute, which is a standard practice for such meetings [1]. - The host mentioned that after the announcement, the speaker could begin their presentation, suggesting a structured approach to the meeting [1]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The call included a formal declaration, which is typical for corporate meetings, ensuring that all participants are aware of the meeting's purpose and guidelines [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [2] Core Views - The company is positioned as a high-quality aluminum enterprise with a fully integrated supply chain and high self-sufficiency [2] - The company has a comprehensive layout in the aluminum industry chain, enhancing its integrated profitability [7] - The company benefits from rising aluminum prices and the release of its integrated advantages, with expected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 projected at 14.497 billion, 16.393 billion, and 18.093 billion RMB respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 6.9, 6.1, and 5.5 [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Full Industry Chain Layout and High Self-Sufficiency - The company has evolved from a textile business to a leading global aluminum product manufacturer, establishing a fully integrated aluminum supply chain [7] - The company has a stable management structure with concentrated ownership by the Zhang family, holding 64% of the shares [12] 2. Aluminum Ore Supply Disruptions and Price Dynamics - The supply of bauxite is tight, and the price of alumina has been volatile due to environmental restrictions and production cuts [15] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity is limited, with a production ceiling of 45 million tons, leading to a tight supply-demand balance [20] 3. Forward-Looking Overseas Resource Layout - The company has established a strategic alliance in Guinea, securing a stable annual production capacity of 50 million tons of bauxite [24] - The company has relocated its electrolytic aluminum production to Yunnan, leveraging hydropower advantages to reduce production costs [25] 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation Discussion - Revenue forecasts for the company indicate a gradual increase in sales volume and price for alumina and electrolytic aluminum from 2024 to 2026 [27][28] - The company is expected to maintain a strong gross margin across its product lines, with continuous optimization of costs [28]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to China Hongqiao Group (1378.HK) [4] Core Views - China Hongqiao is a leading player in the aluminum industry with a fully integrated supply chain, expected to enjoy high profit elasticity [4][11] - The company has a stable aluminum hydroxide self-sufficiency rate of 100%, supported by diversified raw material supply channels [10][11] - The aluminum price is expected to maintain an upward trend in the medium to long term due to limited supply growth and increasing demand from the new energy sector [10][26] Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Hongqiao Group, established in 1994, is a comprehensive enterprise involved in power generation, mining, alumina, liquid aluminum alloys, aluminum alloy ingots, and new materials [4][11] - As of March 2024, the company has an annual bauxite production capacity of approximately 50 million tons, alumina capacity of 19.5 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum capacity of 6.46 million tons [4][10] Upstream Operations - The company has a high self-sufficiency rate for alumina, currently at 100%, and has secured bauxite supply from both Guinea and Australia [10][11] - The integration of upstream and downstream operations enhances the stability of raw material supply [10] Midstream Operations - The electrolytic aluminum segment is stable, with significant improvements in energy structure, particularly with the relocation of production capacity to Yunnan, where electricity costs are lower [10][11] - The company is expected to benefit from reduced overall electricity costs as it shifts 396,000 tons of annual capacity to Yunnan [10] Downstream Operations - The company is expanding its recycling aluminum and automotive lightweight projects, which are expected to contribute to low-carbon development [10][11] - The recycling project aims to produce 500,000 tons of recycled aluminum annually and recover 100,000 scrapped vehicles [10] Financial Performance - The report forecasts the company's EPS for 2024-2026 to be 1.70, 1.94, and 1.95 CNY per share, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 6.42x, 5.61x, and 5.60x [6] - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, averaging 28.48% since its listing in 2011, indicating stable operations and growth [24] Market Outlook - The aluminum price is projected to continue its upward trend due to supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics [10][26] - The report anticipates a global aluminum demand growth rate of approximately 1.65% annually from 2023 to 2025 [10]

是一家集热电、采矿还有氧化链、电解链包括再生链以及下游的一些深加工这样的一个全产业链的企业了那我们的矿石呢主要是来自于几内亚我们在几内亚以雷银公司的形式参与了一个叫零联盟的这样子一个经营集团吧 然后在几内亚有两个矿区年出矿量可以达到5000万吨以上这5000万吨当中大概每年有60%左右运回到我们在山东的这边的一个氧化链的这个基地那大概对应到的是2800到3000万吨的这样的一个体量那余下的部分呢我们在几内亚当地 就找贸易商直接销售掉了也不会去追踪它运到哪个地方再往下游氧化铝这边我们是在山东有1750万吨在印尼有200万吨总产能是1950万吨印尼的这一部分我们就是直接使用印尼当地的矿每年大概产量能够达到210到220万吨 也是直接在当地找贸易商就直接销售掉了山东的这一部分1750万吨我们是有一部分我们在山东就自用了余下的我们也会外售外售的部分大概能够有每年能够有700到800万吨就是山东这一部分 山东的电解铝这一块我们其实总体的电解铝是646万斤的产能由于从18年开始山东省对于煤炭的消耗量有一个压降的计划我们在当年就减少了这个电的比例这一边我们 你电解铝的产能也是同时会有一个搬迁的计划就是我们去寻找更清洁的能源 ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年05月08日 中国宏桥（01378.HK） 买入 原料价格趋稳叠加铝行业景气周期，盈利能力显著提升 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 公司2023年归母净利润增长32%。中国宏桥披露2023年全年业绩，公司2023 有色金属·工业金属 年营业收入1336亿元，同比增长1.5%；归母净利润114.6亿元，同比增长 证券分析师：刘孟峦 证券分析师：焦方冉 31.7%；经营活动现金流入净额为77.22亿元，同比增长1.3%。盈利增加主 010-88005312 021-60933177 liumengluan@guosen.com.cn jiaofangran@guosen.com.cn 因原材料煤炭、预焙阳极价格下跌。公司铝合金产品销量574.8万吨，比2022 S0980520040001 S0980522080003 年增加27.5万吨；铝深加工产品销量58万吨，同比下降2.9万吨；氧化铝 基础数据 销量1037.4万吨，同比增加207.6万吨，主要是2022年底公司收购了250 投资评级 买入(维持) 万吨产能，外销量增加。 合理估值 收盘价 11.20港元 总市值/流通市值 106 ...

海 外 研 证券研究报告 究 ＃industryId＃ 电解铝行业 ＃01378 .HK ＃中dy国Com宏pa桥ny＃ 港股通（沪/深） dyStockco ＃investSuggestion＃ ＃ 买入 ( i维nve持stS ） d e＃ 电解 铝盈 利维持高＃位tit，le＃业 绩弹性充分释放 uggesti on gC e＃ ha n ＃createTime1＃ 2024年 5月 5日 投资要点 公 ＃市m场a数rk据et Data＃ ＃summary＃ 事件：中国宏桥子公司山东宏桥新型材料有限公司发布 Q1 业绩：收入同比增长 司 日期 20240503 6.1%至347.6亿元，净利润同比增长6.3倍至43.4亿元。 跟 收盘价（港元） 11.20 点评：需求韧性超预期，拉动铝价持续上涨，以及受益于煤价&阳极&液碱成本下 踪 总股本（亿股） 95 行，电解铝吨盈利两端继续走阔，尤其是外购煤占比较高的宏桥，充分释放业绩弹 流通股本（亿股） 95 报 性。 净资产（亿元） 1063 告 ——量：24Q1运行产能保持稳定，我们估计产量环比持平。 总资产（亿元） 2003 每股净资产（元） 11.21 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of HKD 11.20 [3][12]. Core Insights - The company reported strong financial performance in Q1 2024, with revenue of CNY 34.76 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.3%. Net profit reached CNY 4.34 billion, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 629.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 40.8% [2]. - The report highlights the integrated layout of the company's industrial chain, with a total electrolytic aluminum capacity of 6.459 million tons and alumina capacity of 19.5 million tons, ensuring strong raw material security [2]. - The decline in thermal coal prices and the increase in aluminum prices have significantly improved the company's profitability in the electrolytic aluminum segment [2]. - Future growth is supported by the transition of some electrolytic aluminum capacity to Yunnan, where hydropower is the main energy source, aligning with green energy trends [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve net profits of CNY 15.44 billion, CNY 17.25 billion, and CNY 18.92 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 6, 6, and 5 times [2][10]. - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are CNY 138.83 billion, CNY 138.54 billion, and CNY 139.89 billion, respectively, with a slight growth rate expected [10]. - The company's net profit margin is projected to improve, with net profit margins of 11.12%, 12.45%, and 13.52% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [10].