Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 40.77 CNY based on a projected PB of 1x for 2024 [3][31]. Core Insights - The company's performance remains stable, with a revenue growth rate of -1.6% in 2023, showing a slight recovery compared to the previous quarters. The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 6.2%, although this is a decrease from earlier quarters [1][3]. - Loan growth is stable, with a 7.67% increase in 2023, driven by strong performance in consumer loans and small micro-loans, reflecting effective marketing strategies [1]. - The net interest margin continues to decline, dropping by 4 basis points to 2.15% in Q4, primarily due to pressures in retail business [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million CNY) for 2023 is reported at 3,391, with a growth rate of -1.64%. Projections for 2024-2026 show expected growth rates of 1.83%, 9.81%, and 9.87% respectively [5][22]. - Net profit (in million CNY) for 2023 is 1,466, with a growth rate of 6.22%. Projections for 2024-2026 are 7.3%, 9.1%, and 9.3% respectively [5][22]. - The company’s EPS for 2023 is 5.63, with projections of 6.24, 6.81, and 7.44 for the following years [5][22]. - The P/E ratio for 2023 is 5.75, with a projected decrease to 4.36 by 2026, indicating a potential increase in valuation [5][22]. Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The company has increased its cash dividend to 1.972 CNY per share, with a payout ratio of 35.01%, marking the highest dividend ratio in its history [8]. Asset Quality and Loan Performance - The asset quality remains stable, with a slight decrease in non-performing loan (NPL) ratio by 1 basis point, while the attention rate increased by 9 basis points, indicating pressure mainly in retail loans [28]. - The company reported a significant slowdown in deposit growth, with a rate of 8.22% in Q4, down by 4.34 percentage points from previous quarters, primarily affecting retail demand deposits [29]. Future Projections - The report projects revenue growth for 2024 at 3,453 million CNY, with net profit expected to reach 1,574 million CNY [47]. - The company anticipates a stable growth trajectory in loans, with total loans expected to reach 72,879 million CNY by 2024 [47]. Conclusion - Overall, the report indicates a stable performance with potential for growth, supported by strong loan demand and effective marketing strategies, while also highlighting challenges in net interest margins and deposit growth [1][2][3][8][28][29].

[Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 [Table_AuthorInfo] 分析师:孙婷 分红比例从 33%提升至 35%，从资本积累程度看有望保持高分红比率。招行核 心一级资本充足率较 22 年提升 5bps 至 13.73%，预计继续保持上市银行前列。 我们认为在资本新规实施后招行资本充足率有望进一步提升，有能力保持 35%的 分红比率。 [Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/金融/银行 证券研究报告 招商银行（600036）公司年报点评 2024 年 03 月 27 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------|--------|----------|-------| | | | | | | | | 招商银行 | | 海通综指 | | | | 11.60% | | | | | | 4.60% | | | | | | -2.40% | | | | | | -9.40% | | | | | | -16.40% 2023/3 2023/6 | 202 ...

⚫ 贷款同比+7.7%，零售贷款占比提升至 53%。2023 年全年新增贷款 4574 亿元，同比少增 240 亿元，其中零售/对公/票据分别贡献 60%、49%、-9% 的增量。拆分来看：①对公贷款增速降至 9.4%，房地产贷款持续压降， 主要投放制造业，以科技金融、绿色金融、普惠金融等领域为重点方向； ②零售贷款增速低位提升至 8.7%，主要靠个人经营贷和消费贷增长拉动， 按揭负增长。存款方面，存款同比+8.6%，定期存款贡献主要增量，活期 存款规模下降。 公 司 点 评 报 告 ＃相关报告 relatedReport＃ ＃分析师： emailAuthor＃ ＃陈绍兴assAuthor＃ SAC：S0190517070003 chenshaox@xyzq.com.cn 曹欣童 SAC：S0190522060001 caoxintong@xyzq.com.cn ⚫ 不良率环比-1bp 至 0.95%，拨备覆盖率环比-8pct 至 438%，拨贷比环比13bp 至 4.14%。拆分来看：①对公不良率下行至 1.19%，其中房地产不良 率拐点再次验证，由 2023Q2 的 5.45%下降至 5.01%，房地产敞 ...

四大板块协同发展，分红率提升至 35% ——招商银行（600036.SH）2023 年年报点评 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 -1- 证券研究报告 | --- | --- | |----------------------|------------| | | | | 市场数据 | | | | | | 总股本(亿股 ) | 252.20 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 7,906.42 | | 一年最低/最高(元 )： | 26.9/36.04 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 36.55% | 3 月 25 日，招商银行发布 2023 年年报，全年实现营业收入 3391 亿，同比-1.6%； 实现归母净利润 1466 亿，同比+6.2%。归属普通股股东加权平均净资产收益率 16.22%，同比-0.84pct。 招商银行（600036.SH） 非利息净收入同比下降 1.7%至 1245 亿，手续费与净其他非息收入同比"一降 一升"。2023 年非利息净收入主要构成上，1）手续费及佣金净收入同比下降 10.8%至 841 亿，其中，财富管理手续费收入同比下降 7.9%至 285 亿，主要分 项看，①代理保险（YoY +9 ...

核心观点： -22% -16% -9% -3% 4% 10% 03/23 05/23 07/23 09/23 11/23 01/24 03/24 招商银行 沪深300 分析师： 王先爽 021-38003645 表 12：生息资产情况（单位：百万元） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|---------|----------|---------|-----------| | 余额结构 | 2022Q1 | 2022H1 | 2022Q1-3 | 2022A | 2023Q1 | 2023H1 | 2023Q1-3 | 2023A | 同比变化 | | 贷款 | 61.7% | 61.8% | 62.3% | 60.2% | 60.8% | 59.7% | 61.1% | 59.5% | -0.70pct | | 投资类资产 | 25.4% | 26.1% | 26.6 ...

银行 ——分红率高位提升超预期，静待营收新拐点 | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 基础数据 : | 2023 年 12 月 31 日 | | 每股净资产（元） | 36.71 | | 资产负债率 % | 90.16 | | 总股本/流通 A 股(百万 ) | 25220/20629 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/4591 | 买入（维持） 事件：招商银行披露 2023 年报，全年实现营收 3391 亿元，同比下滑 1.6%；实现归母净利 润 1466 亿元，同比增长 6.2%；4Q23 不良率季度环比下降 1bp 至 0.95%，拨备覆盖率季度 环比下降 8.2pct 至 437.7%。业绩与资产质量符合预期。 ⚫ 贷款增速环比基本持平，但结构延续改善，对公加大实体制造业和政策支持行业并压降房 地产及票据，零售端则实现各条线平稳恢复：4Q23 招行集团口径贷款同比增长 7.6% （3Q23 为 7.7%）。母行口径全年新增贷款 4456 亿，同比小幅少增 228 亿。 ...

近可守，远可攻 证券分析师：田维韦 证券分析师：王剑 021-60875161 021-60875165 tianweiwei@guosen.com.cnwangjian@guosen.com.cn S0980520030002 S0980518070002 证券分析师：陈俊良 021-60933163 chenjunliang@guosen.com.cn S0980519010001 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 基础数据 | | | 投资评级 | 买入(维持) | | 合理估值 | | | 收盘价 总市值/流通市值 | 31.35 元 790642/790642 百万元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 近 3 个月日均成交额 | 36.35/26.90 元 2274.92 百万元 | | 市场走势 | | 资料来源：Wind、国信证券经济研究所整理 相关研究报告 财务预测与估值 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 证券研究报告 | --- | - ...

招商银行（600036）2023 年报点评 推荐（维持） 公司研究 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 招商银行（600036）2023 年报点评 金融组团队介绍 研究员：刘潇伟 证 券 研 究 报 告 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 未经许可，禁止转载 （2022 年为 33.01%），静态股息率提升至 6.3%（对应最新总市值）。 投资建议：在 4 季度面临存量按揭利率调整和"报行合一"双重因素扰动下， 招行整体业绩增速保持平稳，资产质量各项指标仍维持在较优水平。当前居民 加杠杆意愿/风险偏好仍在低位，但重点风险领域不良指标已经开始改善，居 民信心恢复仍需一定时间。长期看，招商银行基本面扎实稳健，战略执行清 晰、长期递进且坚定有力；通过在零售领域的长期深耕，积累了一批优质、稳 定的零售客户群体，通过体系化经营和金融科技赋能，不断加深其在零售业务 领域的护城河。招行在银行中具备较高稀缺性，继续看好其长期价值。结合公 司披露年报和当前宏观环境，我们调整 2024E/2025E 净利润增速为 3.2%/6.0% （前值 4.99%/7.61%） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its growth potential and high dividend yield [7][20]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 339.1 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-over-year decline of 1.6%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 146.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 6.2% [6]. - The net interest income decreased by 1.6% year-over-year, with a significant drop of 6.6% in Q4 2023, primarily due to adjustments in mortgage loan rates [6]. - The company’s non-performing loan ratio remained low at 0.95%, with a provision coverage ratio of 438%, indicating strong risk management capabilities [6][7]. - The wealth management strategy remains robust, with retail customer numbers reaching 197 million, a year-over-year increase of 7.1%, and retail assets under management (AUM) growing by 9.9% to 13.3 trillion yuan [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue growth is projected to stabilize, with estimates of 344.7 billion yuan in 2024, 357.9 billion yuan in 2025, and 379.4 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a gradual recovery [18][21]. - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 6.06 yuan, 6.35 yuan, and 6.80 yuan respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [21]. - The company’s capital adequacy ratio is projected to remain strong, with a core capital adequacy ratio of 13.73% in 2023, increasing to 15.17% by 2026 [18][38]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - The non-performing loan ratio is expected to slightly improve to 0.93% in 2024 and stabilize at 0.91% in the following years, reflecting effective asset quality management [18][32]. - The provision coverage ratio is forecasted to decrease gradually but remains robust, indicating a solid buffer against potential loan losses [32]. Dividend and Valuation - The company has a cash dividend payout ratio of 35% for 2023, with a corresponding dividend yield of 6.29% based on the closing price on March 25 [7][20]. - The report suggests that the company is likely to experience a valuation recovery greater than the overall sector, supported by its strong fundamentals and strategic positioning [7].

招商银行（600036.SH） 1、利息净收入：全年同比下降 1.6%，其中 Q4 单季度环比下降 4.5pc 至 6.6%。23Q4 单季度净息差环比下降 7bps，降幅较 23Q3 的 5bps 略有扩 大，此外由于 22Q4 息差环比回升 1bp，基数效应下 23Q4 息差同比降幅 扩大至 33bps（23Q3 同比降 25bps），拖累利息净收入表现。 2、手续费及佣金净收入：全年同比降 10.8%，其中 Q4 单季度下滑 7.8%， 降幅略有收窄，其中，财富管理手续费及佣金收入同比下降 7.9%，资产 管理业务、银行卡手续费也均为负增长，继续承压。 B、按揭：不良率环比略升 1bp 至 0.37%，关注率、逾期率分别提升 10bps、 4bps 至 0.95%、0.54%。公司按揭贷款中一二线城市占比 87%，平均抵 押率 33%，虽然短期有微弱扰动，但整体仍有望保持相对稳定。 分析师 马婷婷 执业证书编号：S0680519040001 邮箱：matingting@gszq.com 研究助理 倪安峰 执业证书编号：S0680122080025 邮箱：nianfeng@gszq.com 2）动态来看， ...