Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - Federal Reserve officials' comments have raised expectations for earlier interest rate cuts, with Governor Waller indicating support for cuts if high tariffs harm the job market [1] - Cleveland Fed President Mester suggested that rate action could occur as soon as June if clearer economic direction is obtained [1] Group 2: Stock Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets surged, with the Dow Jones up 1.23%, Nasdaq up 2.74%, and S&P 500 up 2.03%, driven by the anticipation of interest rate cuts [2] - Major tech stocks saw significant gains, with Tesla, Amazon, and Microsoft rising over 3%, while semiconductor stocks like Micron and Broadcom increased by over 6% [2] Group 3: Consumer Sentiment and Economic Concerns - A recent poll indicated that 47% of Americans believe tariffs will lead to significant price increases, with 53% expressing extreme concern over potential economic recession due to tariff policies [3][4] - Nearly 90% of respondents are worried about rising grocery prices in the coming months, reflecting deteriorating consumer sentiment [4] Group 4: Corporate Earnings and Forecast Adjustments - Procter & Gamble has lowered its revenue and profit expectations for fiscal year 2025, citing deteriorating consumer spending in the U.S. [4] - Hasbro warned of potential $300 million losses and up to $180 million in profit reductions if current tariff policies persist [4] - PepsiCo and American Airlines have also adjusted their annual profit forecasts downward due to increased production costs and economic uncertainty stemming from tariff policies [5] Group 5: Market Predictions and Analyst Adjustments - Deutsche Bank's strategy team has revised its year-end S&P 500 target down to 6,150 points, predicting a 5% decline in earnings, contrary to the general expectation of an 8% increase [5]

智通财经4月24日电，德意志银行预计美元未来几年将陷入结构性下行趋势并兑欧元跌至十多年来的最 低水平。策略师George Saravelos和Tim Baker表示，美国关税的负面影响加上德国的财政刺激以及对美 国在世界舞台上角色的重估将导致投资者抛售美国资产并拖累美元走低。本周早些时候的美元跌至16个 月低点，因美国政策不确定性加剧引发了市场对其世界储备货币地位的质疑。"美元开启大幅下行趋势 的前提条件已经具备，" 德意志银行研究部的策略师们在报告中写道，"鉴于过去几个月的历史性发 展，我们对欧元/美元的预测现在指向美元进入一个漫长的下行周期。"德银现在预计，欧元兑美元在 2027年底前升至1.30。这是2014年以来未见的水平，也远高于彭博调查得到的预测中值1.15。该行还预 计日元兑美元将升至115，即2022年以来的最高水平。就在一个月前，德银对欧元和日元的目标分别为 1.15和125。 德银料美元陷入结构性跌势 关税或导致投资者抛售美国资产 ...

【导读】多家国际金融巨头称美国资产面临风险，将目光投向中国等市场 当前，美国"对等关税"政策仍不明朗，美股等资产剧烈波动。相比过去两年的牛市，标普500指数年内 跌幅超过8%。 近日，桥水、德银、杰富瑞等多家国际金融巨头表示，美国资产面临风险，应更多将目光投向中国、中 东、印度和欧洲等市场。 桥水基金的三位联席首席投资官(CIO)表示，在特朗普政府突然转向以"美国优先"为原则的现代重商主 义背景下，美国资产面临异常风险。 理由有三点：第一，全球对美国"双赤字"融资意愿下降：赤字已升至GDP的4%以上。这一结构性缺陷 意味着未来美元升值的支撑减弱。第二，美国资产持有量的见顶和逐步减少：美元的升值伴随着对美国 资产(债券与股票)持有的高位，目前已出现减仓的迹象，国际资金对美元的需求减弱。第三，其他国家 更倾向于利用国内财政空间支持增长。 杰富瑞：美国股市鼎盛期已过 桥水：风险正在逼近美股资产 桥水基金CIO Bob Prince、Greg Jensen和Karen Karniol-Tambour预计，特朗普的政策将引发美国经济增 长放缓，并导致美国经济衰退的可能性上升。他们还指出，过去美股等资产从强劲的经济增长和 ...

智通财经4月24日电，德意志银行将标普500指数2025年年底目标从7000点下调至6150点。 ...

以Bankim Chadha为首的德意志银行策略师将标普500指数年终目标点位大幅下调12%至6150点。虽然这 意味着该指数较周三收盘价仍有14%的上行空间，但也表明其仅能收复自2月峰值以来的全部跌幅。在 此次调整前，该团队始终保持着华尔街对标普500指数最乐观的预测之一。 智通财经APP获悉，华尔街最坚定的看涨者之一正在放弃对今年股市大涨的预期，认为关税政策将对美 国企业造成最严重的冲击。 策略师测算，新修订的关税税率将使商品进口实际税率从2.3%飙升至26.4%，相当于变相增加8000亿美 元税收。相比之下，2024年美国联邦企业税收总额仅约5000亿美元。 短期来看，鉴于股票仓位已降至历史区间底部(意味着市场对利好消息容易产生反弹)，他们预计标普 500将在4600-5600点宽幅震荡。该指数周三收于5376点。 要实现持续复苏，美国政府必须调整现行贸易政策。策略师们认为，随着经济开始恶化，政府面临的压 力不断增加，这种情况很可能会发生。然而，拖延的时间越长，出现衰退迹象的可能性就越高。 Chadha团队强调："要让政府真正让步，可能需要其支持率出现显著下滑。在执政初期的蜜月期结束 后，支持率往往与经 ...

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank has lowered its year-end target for the S&P 500 index by 12% to 6150 points, indicating a recovery only to the losses since February's peak [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Deutsche Bank's strategists predict a 5% decline in S&P 500 earnings this year, contrasting with the consensus expectation of an 8% growth [1] - The bank has been one of the most bullish institutions regarding the S&P 500 index [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share forecast for the S&P 500 in 2025 has been reduced from $282 to $240 due to significant potential impacts from tariffs, which are expected to disproportionately affect U.S. companies [1]

德意志银行分析师Simon：德银不希望在加密数字货币市场上第一个采取行动。 在决定投资之前，德银在加密货币市场上处于等待（观望）状态。 ...

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank and Standard Chartered are reportedly considering expanding their cryptocurrency operations in the United States [1] - No further details about the plans have been disclosed [1] - Deutsche Bank declined to comment on the report, while Standard Chartered did not respond to requests for comment [1]

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank's stake in Li Auto-W decreased from 17.03% to 16.70% on April 14 [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the **US-China trade relationship** and its implications for global markets, focusing on the economic interdependence between the two nations. Core Themes and Arguments 1. **Reducing Economic Dependency** - The US is aiming to reduce its economic reliance on China, prioritizing national security. Historical parallels are drawn to the early 20th century trade dynamics between the UK and Germany, highlighting the risks of high interdependence during geopolitical tensions. The current tariff levels on Chinese goods exceed 100%, indicating a significant trade decoupling is underway [3][4][10]. 2. **Refocusing Tariffs on US-China Trade** - The US has eased tariffs on most countries while increasing them on China, clarifying the focus of the trade conflict. China represents 32% of global production but only 12% of consumption, while the US accounts for 29% of consumption and 15% of production. This imbalance necessitates a shift where the US aims to increase production and China needs to boost consumption [4][17]. 3. **Global Economic Choices** - Countries worldwide will need to choose between aligning with US or Chinese demand. Energy importers may favor the US, while commodity exporters might lean towards China. The size of economies will play a crucial role in their leverage in trade negotiations [5][17]. 4. **Long-term USD/CNY Exchange Rate Dynamics** - The USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to be influenced more by persistent shocks to real interest rates rather than just tariff levels. High tariffs could lead to inflation in the US and deflation in China, potentially resulting in a stronger CNY in the long run, which would help correct trade imbalances [8][12][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Trade Dependence Statistics** - The bilateral trade between the US and China remains significant, with historical comparisons indicating that such high levels of trade can lead to drastic changes during conflicts, as seen in past global wars [10][17]. - **Impact of Tariffs on Inflation and Consumption** - The imposition of tariffs is likely to create inflationary pressures in the US while exerting deflationary effects in China, which could shift real interest rates favorably for the CNY [8][14]. - **Supply Chain Strain** - Ongoing tensions and tariff adjustments are expected to keep supply chains under pressure, affecting corporate operations globally [5]. This summary encapsulates the critical themes and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future implications of the US-China trade relationship.