Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the **US-China trade relationship** and its implications for global markets, focusing on the economic interdependence between the two nations. Core Themes and Arguments 1. **Reducing Economic Dependency** - The US is aiming to reduce its economic reliance on China, prioritizing national security. Historical parallels are drawn to the early 20th century trade dynamics between the UK and Germany, highlighting the risks of high interdependence during geopolitical tensions. The current tariff levels on Chinese goods exceed 100%, indicating a significant trade decoupling is underway [3][4][10]. 2. **Refocusing Tariffs on US-China Trade** - The US has eased tariffs on most countries while increasing them on China, clarifying the focus of the trade conflict. China represents 32% of global production but only 12% of consumption, while the US accounts for 29% of consumption and 15% of production. This imbalance necessitates a shift where the US aims to increase production and China needs to boost consumption [4][17]. 3. **Global Economic Choices** - Countries worldwide will need to choose between aligning with US or Chinese demand. Energy importers may favor the US, while commodity exporters might lean towards China. The size of economies will play a crucial role in their leverage in trade negotiations [5][17]. 4. **Long-term USD/CNY Exchange Rate Dynamics** - The USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to be influenced more by persistent shocks to real interest rates rather than just tariff levels. High tariffs could lead to inflation in the US and deflation in China, potentially resulting in a stronger CNY in the long run, which would help correct trade imbalances [8][12][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Trade Dependence Statistics** - The bilateral trade between the US and China remains significant, with historical comparisons indicating that such high levels of trade can lead to drastic changes during conflicts, as seen in past global wars [10][17]. - **Impact of Tariffs on Inflation and Consumption** - The imposition of tariffs is likely to create inflationary pressures in the US while exerting deflationary effects in China, which could shift real interest rates favorably for the CNY [8][14]. - **Supply Chain Strain** - Ongoing tensions and tariff adjustments are expected to keep supply chains under pressure, affecting corporate operations globally [5]. This summary encapsulates the critical themes and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future implications of the US-China trade relationship.

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank's precious metals analyst Michael Hsueh maintains a strong long-term bullish outlook for gold, raising the price forecast for the end of 2025 to $3,350 per ounce [1] Traditional Drivers Still Impactful - Since mid-February, the primary drivers for gold price increases have been traditional financial factors, including a decline in market risk appetite due to redefined U.S. tariffs, fluctuations in the U.S. dollar, falling U.S. Treasury yields, and a weak stock market [2] - The sensitivity of gold prices to traditional macro indicators remains significant, indicating potential short-term volatility due to changes in investment flows or central bank gold reserve adjustments [2] Central Bank Gold Accumulation Reshaping Pricing Logic - Central banks' continuous accumulation of gold has become a crucial support factor for gold prices, with global central bank gold purchases rising from 10% to 24% of total market demand since 2022, doubling the average purchase volume from 2011-2021 [3] - The main motivations for central banks to buy gold include long-term value preservation or inflation hedging (88%), performance during crises (82%), and portfolio diversification (76%) [3] - A survey indicates that 66% of central banks expect to increase gold's share in reserve assets, up from 46% in 2022, while 49% anticipate a decline in U.S. dollar reserves over the next five years [3] ETF Investors Joining Chinese Insurance Capital in Gold Trading - Private investment demand is showing signs of recovery, with global gold ETFs experiencing positive growth for the first time in two and a half years in February 2025 [4] - China's gold ETF purchases reached 1.47 million ounces in 2024, more than four times the volume in 2023, marking the highest annual increase since 2015 [4] - The potential allocation scale from participating institutions is estimated at $25 billion, equivalent to approximately 7% of global annual gold production, which could combine with central bank purchases to account for 30% of total gold market demand [4][5] Strong Adaptability of Asian Gold Import Demand to High Prices - Despite a decline in gold jewelry consumption to 38%, Asian non-monetary gold import demand is gradually adapting to rising prices, with long-term recovery potential [6] - Deutsche Bank predicts that even if gold prices exceed $3,000 per ounce, demand for jewelry, gold bars, and coins in the Asia-Pacific region will remain resilient [6] Structural Bull Market Foundation Solid - The trend of central banks increasing gold reserves is expected to continue amid rising geopolitical risks and challenges to the dollar's reserve status [7] - The return of ETF funds and the active participation of Chinese insurance capital are likely to strengthen gold investment demand, further solidifying the upward price foundation for gold [7]

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank's stake in Li Auto-W decreased from 17.13% to 16.97% on April 7 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank warns that President Trump's tariff plans could jeopardize the stock market, the economy, and the global order, with tariffs of at least 10% on goods from nearly all foreign nations causing significant market turmoil [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Impact - Trump's tariffs have led to the fourth-worst two-day decline in stocks since World War II, indicating severe market reactions [2]. - Deutsche Bank's researchers describe the tariff rollout as the largest shock to the global trading system since the 1970s and the biggest tax increase for US consumers since the Vietnam War [3]. - The existing trade regime has contributed to rising US wealth, benefiting companies and shareholders through improved supply chains and access to cheaper labor, but ending it could increase costs and reduce profit margins [4]. Group 2: Market Predictions - Deutsche Bank forecasts less than 1% growth for the US economy this year, with unemployment nearing 5% and core inflation rising to around 4% [5]. - UBS economists predict a reduction in real US GDP growth from 1.6% to 0.4% this year, alongside a forecast of 2.2% price growth and core inflation at 4.6% by year-end [7]. Group 3: Future Implications - The potential failure of international trade deals could have significant implications for US relationships in defense, geopolitics, and the multilateral rules-based world order [6].

欧洲股市、美股期货、石油、铜、白银，全线跳水！ 今日，针对美国的"对等关税"，中国发出反制措施，对原产于美国的所有进口商品，在现行适用关税税率基础上加征34%关税。此外，中国商务部、海关总 署六箭齐发，宣布将16家美国实体列入出口管制管控名单、对中重稀土相关物项实施出口管制、暂停6家美国企业产品输华资质、将11家美国企业列入不可靠 实体清单、对进口医用CT球管发起产业竞争力调查、在世贸组织起诉美"对等关税"等。 在贸易战升级的背景下，欧洲股市跌势不止。4月4日，欧洲股市全线暴跌，盘中跌幅持续扩大，截至19点，意大利富时MIB指数跌超7%，西班牙IBEX指数 跌近6%，德国DAX指数跌近5%，法国CAC 40指数跌超4%，英国富时100指数跌3.8%。 欧洲的银行股跌幅较大，斯托克欧洲600银行指数大跌超10%。德意志银行股价盘中大跌超11%，预计将出现2024年7月以来最糟糕的一天。德国商业银行跌 超7%，有望创下2023年3月以来最糟糕的一天。美股期货也大幅下挫，纳斯达克100指数期货、标普500指数期货均跌超3%，道指期货跌近3%。 其他品种方面，欧元对美元汇率在前一天上涨1.8%后下跌0.5%至1.09 ...

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank AG has been gradually recovering from the financial crisis that occurred over 15 years ago, with shares forming a long-term rounding pattern indicating a significant accumulation process [2] - A breakout above the $15 level in 2024, followed by retests, suggests that 2025 may present promising opportunities for Deutsche Bank [2] - The 50-week moving average has crossed over a rising 200-week trendline, indicating positive momentum [3] Group 2 - Short interest peaked in 2020 and has been decreasing since, indicating potential buying power, as it would take five days for shorts to fully cover their positions [3] - Despite a 12-month average price target of $20.57, there remains pessimism among analysts, with three "hold" or worse ratings, suggesting that Deutsche Bank stock is positioned for potential bullish movements [5]

责编： 李丹 校对： 彭其华 2025年3月21日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜会见德意志银行集团主席卫礼思一行。双方就全球经济金融形势、中国宏观经济政策和中国金融对外开放等议题进 行了交流。 来源：中国人民银行 点击关键字可查看 潜望系列深度报道丨 股事会专栏 丨 投资小红书 丨 e公司调查 丨 时报会客厅 丨 十大明星私募访谈 丨 突传大消息！事关乌克兰土地分割契约谈判！美俄一 致呼吁乌进行大选 丨 于东来最新发声！没有帮扶不好的企业 丨 业界首次！腾讯，重大发布！ 丨 特斯拉，大消息！股价大涨 丨 300630，重大财务造假！ 启动终止上市程序！ 丨 国常会重磅部署！ 丨 中国结算：暂免收取！ 丨 证监会最新发布！ 丨 突然，集体跳水！ 丨 新风口！这一板块，批量涨停！ 丨 被 曝检出镉？603027，深夜回应！ D 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体法律责任的权利。 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes END ...

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank is planning to cut nearly 2000 jobs in its retail banking sector by 2025, alongside a significant reduction in the number of branches, as part of its cost-cutting strategy to enhance efficiency and shift towards digital banking services [1][2][3]. Group 1: Cost-Cutting Measures - The bank's restructuring will involve job cuts at both Deutsche Bank and Postbank brands, with the restructuring costs already accounted for [2]. - In 2024, Deutsche Bank closed 125 branches and reduced its headcount by nearly 1300, including layoffs of 111 senior managers from its retail and wealth management unit [4]. - The bank aims to achieve a cost-to-income ratio below 65% by the end of 2025, a significant improvement from 76.3% at the end of 2024 [5]. Group 2: Strategic Investments - Deutsche Bank is increasing its investments in technology and regulatory compliance, hiring 1,300 technology specialists and adding 400 revenue-generating roles in 2024 to support long-term growth [5]. Group 3: Market Performance - Over the past six months, Deutsche Bank's shares have increased by 46.6%, outperforming the industry growth of 12.1% [6].

Financial Performance and Dividends - For 2024, Deutsche Bank intends to propose a dividend of €0.68 per share, representing a payout ratio of 36% for basic earnings and 37% for diluted earnings[39]. - The proposed dividend for 2024 reflects an increase from €0.45 in 2023, which had a payout ratio of 16%[39]. - Total shareholders' equity stands at €81.87 billion, with common shares valued at €5.11 billion and retained earnings of €25.87 billion[40]. - Deutsche Bank's ability to meet regulatory capital ratios may be impacted by adverse changes in financial prospects, profitability, or distributable reserves, potentially affecting dividend payments[123]. Debt and Liquidity - Total debt as of December 31, 2024, is €137.39 billion, with long-term debt accounting for €114.90 billion[40]. - The bank's liquidity may be impaired if it cannot access debt capital markets or sell assets during periods of market-wide liquidity constraints[84]. - The bank's liquidity and profitability could be adversely affected by an inability to access debt capital markets during liquidity constraints[47]. - Deutsche Bank's liquidity risk may be impacted by perceptions of potential outflows due to litigation and regulatory matters, affecting available liquidity during stressed scenarios[86]. Economic Outlook and Market Conditions - The U.S. economy is expected to experience solid growth in 2025, while Germany is projected to lag behind due to weak demand in sectors like automotives[54]. - Inflationary pressures and potential rising interest rates may negatively impact consumer spending and private client investments, affecting the bank's consumer finance and mortgage lending businesses[58]. - A prolonged economic slowdown could severely impact Deutsche Bank's ability to meet its 2025 financial targets[65]. - The bank's revenues and profits are susceptible to declines in investment banking, brokerage, and other commission-based businesses due to adverse market conditions[79]. Regulatory Environment and Compliance - Regulatory scrutiny continues to impact Deutsche Bank, with potential sanctions affecting dividend payments and share repurchases[48]. - The bank is focused on strengthening its internal control environment to comply with regulatory expectations, particularly in anti-money laundering processes[49]. - The ECB's stress tests revealed deficiencies in operational resilience frameworks, particularly regarding IT security and cyber risks, which are now supervisory priorities[106]. - Deutsche Bank is subject to increased capital and liquidity requirements, including additional capital buffer requirements, which could affect its business model and financial conditions[110]. Risk Management and Operational Challenges - Deutsche Bank's risk management policies may leave the bank exposed to unidentified risks, potentially leading to material losses[55]. - Higher interest rates may lead to refinancing risks and potential credit rating downgrades for corporates, small and medium-sized enterprises, and private clients[59]. - The bank's reliance on third-party service providers poses risks comparable to those of in-house operations, with potential for material losses if third parties fail to meet standards[200]. - Operational risks from IT system failures or vendor issues could disrupt Deutsche Bank's business and lead to significant financial losses[207]. Legal and Reputational Risks - Ongoing investigations into cum-ex transactions could lead to significant reputational risks and financial liabilities for the bank[178]. - The bank's reputation may be harmed due to ongoing legal proceedings and investigations, which are difficult to quantify[165]. - Deutsche Bank's financial exposure from ongoing legal matters could be material, affecting its strategic objectives and market position[174]. - The Higher Regional Court of Cologne ruled in favor of plaintiffs in the Postbank case, impacting the bank's financial exposure[170]. Strategic Initiatives and Innovations - Deutsche Bank is migrating applications to the Public Cloud through a strategic partnership with Google to improve IT flexibility and resiliency[154]. - The bank acknowledges the risks associated with digital innovation and the need for investments to remain competitive against new market entrants[153]. - The bank's commitment to sustainable financing aims for €500 billion in cumulative volumes by the end of 2025, with potential impacts on revenues and reputation if targets are missed[195]. - The DOL has extended Deutsche Bank's QPAM status until April 17, 2027, despite previous convictions, which is crucial for maintaining asset management services for certain pension plans[187]. Market and Competitive Landscape - Increased competition in both domestic and international markets could adversely affect Deutsche Bank's revenues and profitability, particularly if it fails to offer attractive products[99]. - Digital payments and blockchain are emerging risks that could impact market liquidity and funding costs, adversely affecting profitability[91]. - The bank's sustainability-related disclosures may face allegations of greenwashing due to evolving data and methodologies for assessing climate risks[193]. - Changes in fair value of financial instruments can lead to significant losses, impacting the bank's income statement[227].

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