以Bankim Chadha为首的德意志银行策略师将标普500指数年终目标点位大幅下调12%至6150点。虽然这 意味着该指数较周三收盘价仍有14%的上行空间，但也表明其仅能收复自2月峰值以来的全部跌幅。在 此次调整前，该团队始终保持着华尔街对标普500指数最乐观的预测之一。 智通财经APP获悉，华尔街最坚定的看涨者之一正在放弃对今年股市大涨的预期，认为关税政策将对美 国企业造成最严重的冲击。 策略师测算，新修订的关税税率将使商品进口实际税率从2.3%飙升至26.4%，相当于变相增加8000亿美 元税收。相比之下，2024年美国联邦企业税收总额仅约5000亿美元。 短期来看，鉴于股票仓位已降至历史区间底部(意味着市场对利好消息容易产生反弹)，他们预计标普 500将在4600-5600点宽幅震荡。该指数周三收于5376点。 要实现持续复苏，美国政府必须调整现行贸易政策。策略师们认为，随着经济开始恶化，政府面临的压 力不断增加，这种情况很可能会发生。然而，拖延的时间越长，出现衰退迹象的可能性就越高。 Chadha团队强调："要让政府真正让步，可能需要其支持率出现显著下滑。在执政初期的蜜月期结束 后，支持率往往与经 ...

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank has lowered its year-end target for the S&P 500 index by 12% to 6150 points, indicating a recovery only to the losses since February's peak [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Deutsche Bank's strategists predict a 5% decline in S&P 500 earnings this year, contrasting with the consensus expectation of an 8% growth [1] - The bank has been one of the most bullish institutions regarding the S&P 500 index [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share forecast for the S&P 500 in 2025 has been reduced from $282 to $240 due to significant potential impacts from tariffs, which are expected to disproportionately affect U.S. companies [1]

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank analyst Simon stated that the bank does not wish to be the first to take action in the cryptocurrency market [1] - Before making investment decisions, Deutsche Bank is in a wait-and-see mode regarding the cryptocurrency market [1]

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank and Standard Chartered are reportedly considering expanding their cryptocurrency operations in the United States [1] - No further details about the plans have been disclosed [1] - Deutsche Bank declined to comment on the report, while Standard Chartered did not respond to requests for comment [1]

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank's stake in Li Auto-W decreased from 17.03% to 16.70% on April 14 [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the **US-China trade relationship** and its implications for global markets, focusing on the economic interdependence between the two nations. Core Themes and Arguments 1. **Reducing Economic Dependency** - The US is aiming to reduce its economic reliance on China, prioritizing national security. Historical parallels are drawn to the early 20th century trade dynamics between the UK and Germany, highlighting the risks of high interdependence during geopolitical tensions. The current tariff levels on Chinese goods exceed 100%, indicating a significant trade decoupling is underway [3][4][10]. 2. **Refocusing Tariffs on US-China Trade** - The US has eased tariffs on most countries while increasing them on China, clarifying the focus of the trade conflict. China represents 32% of global production but only 12% of consumption, while the US accounts for 29% of consumption and 15% of production. This imbalance necessitates a shift where the US aims to increase production and China needs to boost consumption [4][17]. 3. **Global Economic Choices** - Countries worldwide will need to choose between aligning with US or Chinese demand. Energy importers may favor the US, while commodity exporters might lean towards China. The size of economies will play a crucial role in their leverage in trade negotiations [5][17]. 4. **Long-term USD/CNY Exchange Rate Dynamics** - The USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to be influenced more by persistent shocks to real interest rates rather than just tariff levels. High tariffs could lead to inflation in the US and deflation in China, potentially resulting in a stronger CNY in the long run, which would help correct trade imbalances [8][12][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Trade Dependence Statistics** - The bilateral trade between the US and China remains significant, with historical comparisons indicating that such high levels of trade can lead to drastic changes during conflicts, as seen in past global wars [10][17]. - **Impact of Tariffs on Inflation and Consumption** - The imposition of tariffs is likely to create inflationary pressures in the US while exerting deflationary effects in China, which could shift real interest rates favorably for the CNY [8][14]. - **Supply Chain Strain** - Ongoing tensions and tariff adjustments are expected to keep supply chains under pressure, affecting corporate operations globally [5]. This summary encapsulates the critical themes and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future implications of the US-China trade relationship.

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank's precious metals analyst Michael Hsueh maintains a strong long-term bullish outlook for gold, raising the price forecast for the end of 2025 to $3,350 per ounce [1] Traditional Drivers Still Impactful - Since mid-February, the primary drivers for gold price increases have been traditional financial factors, including a decline in market risk appetite due to redefined U.S. tariffs, fluctuations in the U.S. dollar, falling U.S. Treasury yields, and a weak stock market [2] - The sensitivity of gold prices to traditional macro indicators remains significant, indicating potential short-term volatility due to changes in investment flows or central bank gold reserve adjustments [2] Central Bank Gold Accumulation Reshaping Pricing Logic - Central banks' continuous accumulation of gold has become a crucial support factor for gold prices, with global central bank gold purchases rising from 10% to 24% of total market demand since 2022, doubling the average purchase volume from 2011-2021 [3] - The main motivations for central banks to buy gold include long-term value preservation or inflation hedging (88%), performance during crises (82%), and portfolio diversification (76%) [3] - A survey indicates that 66% of central banks expect to increase gold's share in reserve assets, up from 46% in 2022, while 49% anticipate a decline in U.S. dollar reserves over the next five years [3] ETF Investors Joining Chinese Insurance Capital in Gold Trading - Private investment demand is showing signs of recovery, with global gold ETFs experiencing positive growth for the first time in two and a half years in February 2025 [4] - China's gold ETF purchases reached 1.47 million ounces in 2024, more than four times the volume in 2023, marking the highest annual increase since 2015 [4] - The potential allocation scale from participating institutions is estimated at $25 billion, equivalent to approximately 7% of global annual gold production, which could combine with central bank purchases to account for 30% of total gold market demand [4][5] Strong Adaptability of Asian Gold Import Demand to High Prices - Despite a decline in gold jewelry consumption to 38%, Asian non-monetary gold import demand is gradually adapting to rising prices, with long-term recovery potential [6] - Deutsche Bank predicts that even if gold prices exceed $3,000 per ounce, demand for jewelry, gold bars, and coins in the Asia-Pacific region will remain resilient [6] Structural Bull Market Foundation Solid - The trend of central banks increasing gold reserves is expected to continue amid rising geopolitical risks and challenges to the dollar's reserve status [7] - The return of ETF funds and the active participation of Chinese insurance capital are likely to strengthen gold investment demand, further solidifying the upward price foundation for gold [7]

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank's stake in Li Auto-W decreased from 17.13% to 16.97% on April 7 [1]

Investors interested in Finance stocks should always be looking to find the best-performing companies in the group. Has Palomar (PLMR) been one of those stocks this year? A quick glance at the company's year-to-date performance in comparison to the rest of the Finance sector should help us answer this question.Palomar is a member of the Finance sector. This group includes 859 individual stocks and currently holds a Zacks Sector Rank of #4. The Zacks Sector Rank gauges the strength of our 16 individual secto ...

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank warns that President Trump's tariff plans could jeopardize the stock market, the economy, and the global order, with tariffs of at least 10% on goods from nearly all foreign nations causing significant market turmoil [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Impact - Trump's tariffs have led to the fourth-worst two-day decline in stocks since World War II, indicating severe market reactions [2]. - Deutsche Bank's researchers describe the tariff rollout as the largest shock to the global trading system since the 1970s and the biggest tax increase for US consumers since the Vietnam War [3]. - The existing trade regime has contributed to rising US wealth, benefiting companies and shareholders through improved supply chains and access to cheaper labor, but ending it could increase costs and reduce profit margins [4]. Group 2: Market Predictions - Deutsche Bank forecasts less than 1% growth for the US economy this year, with unemployment nearing 5% and core inflation rising to around 4% [5]. - UBS economists predict a reduction in real US GDP growth from 1.6% to 0.4% this year, alongside a forecast of 2.2% price growth and core inflation at 4.6% by year-end [7]. Group 3: Future Implications - The potential failure of international trade deals could have significant implications for US relationships in defense, geopolitics, and the multilateral rules-based world order [6].