Core Viewpoint - Recent copper prices have shown a significant upward trend, driven by supply concerns following the suspension of operations at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, owned by Freeport-McMoRan, which has raised fears of tightening copper supply [1][2][3] Supply Side Analysis - The Grasberg copper mine, the second largest globally, has announced a production halt due to an accident, leading to a downward revision of copper sales forecasts for Q4 2023 and the entirety of 2026, with expected production reductions of approximately 35% for copper and gold [2][3] - The mine's production was previously stable at over 700,000 tons annually, with a target of 770,000 tons for 2026, meaning a loss of around 260,000 tons of copper supply due to the incident [2][3] - The supply constraints are exacerbated by a lack of new mining capacity and ongoing production losses, leading to a negative processing fee environment and a significant imbalance between copper ore supply and refined copper availability [3][4] Demand Side Analysis - Despite slow growth in traditional consumption sectors, emerging industries such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI are expected to drive future copper demand [5][6] - The current negative processing fee situation may lead to a more challenging environment for smelting operations in 2026, further impacting supply dynamics [5][6] Market Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is stabilizing, with reduced uncertainty regarding tariffs and a potential 50 basis points interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which could support copper prices [4][6] - Analysts predict that copper prices may continue to rise, with forecasts suggesting that LME copper could range between $9,800 and $11,000 per ton in Q4 2025, while Shanghai copper futures may range from 80,000 to 84,000 yuan per ton [6] - The Grasberg mine's shutdown is expected to widen the supply gap for copper concentrate, significantly affecting the copper market from Q4 2025 to 2026 [6]

Industry Overview - Copper prices are rising due to supply issues, particularly from a production stoppage at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, one of the largest copper producers globally [1] - Demand for copper is high, especially from China, which accounts for approximately 60% of global demand over the past year [2] - The demand for copper is expected to increase significantly as infrastructure and clean energy projects expand, particularly in electric vehicles and AI data centers [6] Market Activity - Copper trading activity has increased by around 50% compared to normal expectations [4] - Recent price fluctuations include a 7% bounce following news from Freeport regarding its Grasberg operations, although prices remain about 20% below pre-tariff highs [5] - Investors have shown strong interest in copper assets, with sector ETFs attracting $2.3 billion in net inflows in 2025, nearly 50% higher than in 2024 [3] Company Performance - Freeport-McMoRan has faced challenges due to its Grasberg operations but remains a significant player in the copper market [9] - Southern Copper Corp. has shown strong operational and financial performance, with year-to-date performance at +33.01% and high EBITDA margins of 56% [11][12] - Antofagasta PLC reported a year-to-date performance of +65.22% and is well-positioned for growth through projects initiated last year [13][14] Investment Opportunities - The Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) is recommended for investors seeking exposure to the copper mining industry without the risks associated with individual stocks [15] - Investing in copper is seen as a way to capture growth tied to electrification and AI expansion, contrasting with gold, which is often viewed as a hedge against economic downturns [6][7]

Image: Freeport-McMoRan Indonesia’s government has reached an agreement with Freeport Indonesia to halt operations at the Grasberg mine to prioritize the search for workers trapped after a recent accident, Reuters reported, citing the country’s mining minister.Two workers have died and five remain missing following a large mudflow earlier this month at the Grasberg Block Cave underground mine.Production at Freeport Indonesia has not resumed since the incident, with the suspension impacting both output and r ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the overall industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global copper supply - demand structure will be further tightened due to the accident at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine, and with the Fed's expected interest rate cuts and the expansion of the US manufacturing industry, copper prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to buy on dips [4][13]. - Zinc shows a range - bound trend. Although there are some improvements in the supply side, the demand in the peak season is relatively weak. Attention should be paid to whether the export window opens, and it is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips [5][13]. - The aluminum industry chain presents a mixed situation. Aluminum is slightly bullish but it is recommended to wait and see; alumina is recommended to be shorted on rallies; and cast aluminum alloy can be short - term bullish [6][14]. - Tin is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and a short - term bullish strategy is recommended, while paying attention to the situation of the ore end and macro - impacts [7]. - Lead shows a range - bound upward movement. With the increase in supply after the end of maintenance and the existence of pre - holiday stocking demand, it is recommended to close long positions on rallies [17]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices fluctuate repeatedly. Nickel is affected by mine - end disturbances, and stainless steel is supported by cost. It is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips for both [10][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Logic - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, starting a new round of interest rate cuts. Further economic data changes need to be monitored to see if it can confirm the preventive interest rate cuts and their effectiveness, which will be beneficial to the later trend of non - ferrous metals [11]. - The US announced the implementation of the US - EU trade agreement, reducing the tariff on EU cars to 15% starting from August 1st. - The preliminary values of the Eurozone's September manufacturing, service, and composite PMIs showed mixed performance. The US September Markit manufacturing and service PMIs declined but remained in the expansion range, with prices easing. - China's one - year and five - year LPRs in September remained unchanged. The central bank governor stated that China's monetary policy adheres to an independent stance, taking into account both domestic and foreign factors, and is currently supportive and moderately loose [11]. 3.2 Metal - Specific Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - An accident at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine has suspended production, and the company expects a 35% decline in copper and gold production in 2026. The earliest recovery to pre - accident production levels will be in 2027. - In the medium - to long - term, the Fed's expected interest rate cuts and the expansion of the US manufacturing industry are positive for copper prices. It is recommended to buy on dips, with a short - term support range of 80,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 83,000 - 84,000 yuan/ton. An option strategy of selling near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options can be considered [4][13]. 3.2.2 Zinc - Zinc shows a range - bound trend. The supply increase is gradually materializing, and the demand in the peak season is relatively weak. Attention should be paid to whether the export window opens. The support range is 21,800 - 22,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 22,800 - 23,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips [5][13]. 3.2.3 Aluminum Industry Chain - **Aluminum**: Slightly bullish, but it is recommended to wait and see. The support range is 20,200 - 20,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 21,300 - 21,700 yuan/ton. - **Alumina**: It is recommended to short on rallies. The support range is 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 3,500 - 3,700 yuan/ton. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Short - term bullish. The support range is 20,000 - 20,300 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 20,800 - 21,000 yuan/ton [6][14]. 3.2.4 Tin - In a situation of weak supply and demand, with tight supply due to issues such as ore shortages and delayed production resumption in Myanmar. The demand recovery is limited. It is recommended to be short - term bullish, with a support range of 260,000 - 265,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 280,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton [7][14]. 3.2.5 Lead - With the end of maintenance, the supply of primary lead will increase. There is pre - holiday stocking demand, but the upward momentum is limited. It is recommended to close long positions on rallies, with a support range of 16,800 - 17,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 17,400 - 17,500 yuan/ton [17]. 3.2.6 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Nickel**: Affected by mine - end disturbances in Indonesia, prices fluctuate repeatedly. It is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips, with a support range of 118,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 125,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton. - **Stainless Steel**: Supported by cost, with a slowdown in inventory reduction. It shows a range - bound trend, with a support range of 12,700 - 12,800 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton [10][17]. 3.3 Market Performance - **Futures Closing Prices**: Copper closed at 79,960 yuan/ton with a 0.05% increase; zinc at 21,860 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase; aluminum at 20,705 yuan/ton with a 0.10% increase; etc. [18]. - **Spot Prices**: The Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price was 80,130 yuan/ton with a 0.04% increase; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price was 21,810 yuan/ton with a - 0.32% decrease; etc. [21][23]. 3.4 Position Analysis - For different non - ferrous metal futures contracts such as沪铜 (CU2511),氧化铝 (AO2601),沪镍 (NI2511), etc., the net long - short positions, their changes, and influencing factors are presented. For example, in沪铜 (CU2511), the main short positions are relatively strong, and the net long - short position difference is - 718, with an increase in long - position main forces [20]. 3.5 Industry Chain and Other Analysis - The report also provides various charts related to the non - ferrous metal industry chain, including inventory changes, processing fees, price comparisons, and arbitrage, option - related data for different metals such as copper, zinc, aluminum, etc. For example, charts of copper inventory changes, zinc concentrate processing fee changes, and copper option historical volatility are provided [25][28][78].

印尼自由港公司初步评估表明，此次事故可能会导致2025年第四季度和2026年生产严重延误，但随着修 复工作完成、运营逐步重启，2027年运营率有望恢复到事故前水平。 （文章来源：新华财经） 声明称，事故发生在格拉斯伯格铜矿的PB1C生产区块，但也导致了其他生产区块所需的基础设施受 损。 新华财经雅加达9月26日电（记者冯钰林）自由港麦克莫兰公司26日发布声明表示，受多种因素影响， 印尼自由港公司（PTFI）2026年的产量可能比事故发生前的预测低35%，此前其2026年产量的预测是接 近17亿磅铜和160万盎司黄金。 9月8日，印尼格拉斯伯格铜矿发生泥石流事故，该矿位于印尼巴布亚省，由自由港麦克莫兰公司旗下印 尼自由港公司运营，是全球第二大铜矿及主要金矿。 ...

Core Insights - The copper market is experiencing significant disruptions due to incidents at Indonesia's Grasberg mine, leading to revised supply forecasts and price expectations [1][5]. Supply Disruptions - The Grasberg mine, which typically contributes around 3% of global copper production, has declared force majeure following a heavy mudflow incident that resulted in fatalities and missing workers [3][4]. - Freeport-McMoRan expects minimal production in Q4 2025, with only 30%-40% of capacity likely to restart by mid-quarter, and full production may not resume until 2026, resulting in a potential 35% reduction from earlier forecasts [4][6]. Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs has revised its copper supply outlook, estimating a total loss of 525,000 tons across 2025 and 2026, flipping its 2025 copper balance from a surplus of 105,000 tons to a deficit of 55,000 tons [5][6]. - The bank now anticipates copper prices could rise to $10,200-$10,500 per ton by December 2025, with an average of $10,750 per ton expected by 2027 [6]. Market Reactions - Following the incident, Freeport's shares dropped nearly 17%, marking the steepest one-day decline since March 2020, and the stock is down over 20% for the week [6]. - Analysts from different institutions have varying forecasts, with ING predicting an average of $9,837 per ton in 2026, while J.P. Morgan is more conservative, projecting $9,400 per ton in Q1 2026 [7]. Broader Market Trends - The copper market is facing tightening supply due to unplanned disruptions, which affected 5.7% of global copper output in 2024 and are expected to exceed 6% in the current year [8]. - The fragility of supply chains has been highlighted by the Grasberg incident, emphasizing copper's critical role in electrification and the significant impact of even small supply deficits [9].

Domestic Developments - The steel industry has set a target for an average annual growth of around 4% in value added for 2025-2026, as outlined in the "Steel Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan" issued on September 22[6] - The financial sector has achieved significant growth, with total assets of the banking industry reaching approximately 470 trillion yuan, ranking first globally, and the stock and bond markets ranking second[9] - The service trade policy aims to enhance quality and expand capacity, focusing on five key areas including capital utilization and international market expansion, with service exports growing by 15.3% year-on-year from January to July 2025[14] International Developments - U.S. President Trump announced a new fee of $100,000 for H-1B visa applications, which may hinder the recruitment of tech talent[15] - The Eurozone's composite PMI rose to 51.2 in September, the highest in 16 months, indicating economic expansion, although concerns about growth sustainability remain due to weak new orders[17] - Freeport-McMoRan announced a supply contract entered into "force majeure" status due to a significant landslide at its Grasberg mine, which may reduce copper production by approximately 35% in 2026[21] Commodity Prices - Brent crude oil prices increased by 1.57% week-on-week, while iron ore and cathode copper prices rose by 0.48% and 0.12%, respectively[23] - Rebar prices increased by 0.32%, cement prices rose by 1.85%, and thermal coal prices went up by 1.69% week-on-week[28] - Real estate sales in 30 major cities increased by 19.73% week-on-week, with first-tier cities seeing a 21.50% increase[38]

中金主要观点如下： 自由港发布Grasberg运营状况更新公告，大幅下调四季度与来年铜矿产量预期 9月24日，自由港发布了Grasberg运营状况的更新公告。公司下调4Q25 的产量指引至"可忽略的水平"(原 先预估四季度铜产量为20.2万吨)，同时下调35%的26年全年铜产量指引，即26.95万吨。分矿区来看， 公司预计未受到影响的Big Gossan与Deep MLZ矿区将在2025年四季度中旬复产(两矿区约占Grasberg 30%的产量)，而事故所在的GBC矿区(约占70%产量)将自26年上半年陆续复产，其中PB2与PB3将在 1H26复产，PB1S将在2H26复产，而PB1C则需要到27 年复产。公司预计Grasberg整体将自27年起恢复 至事故发生前的产出水平。 干扰事件或消解来年纸面供应压力，25-26年铜平衡表或将转为短缺 根据中金近期的路演反馈，市场对2026年铜精矿的纸面供应压力显露出一定的担忧。中金预计2026年的 增量仍将主要来自于已投产大型项目的爬产或扩建，包括Oyu Tolgoi地下矿、Quebrada Blanca爬产、 Malmyzh爬产、以及Almalyk Yoshlik矿 ...

BNP Paribas Exane将麦克莫兰铜金的目标价从52美元上调至56美元，维持"跑赢大市"评级。(格隆汇) ...

一场重大矿难事故正让全球第二大铜矿陷入停产，并由此引发了全球金属市场的强烈震动。 9月24日，美国矿业巨头矿业巨头Freeport-McMoRan（FCX）发表声明宣布，其供应合同进入"不可抗力"状态。而这一突发事件被华尔街迅速定性 为"黑天鹅事件"，点燃了市场对铜供应长期短缺的忧虑，并推动铜价大幅飙升。 华尔街见闻写道，事件的核心是Freeport位于印尼的Grasberg矿山。该公司确认，9月8日发生的一场大规模泥石流事故已造成两名工人死亡，另有 五人失踪。作为应对，公司已全面暂停该矿区的生产活动，并启动了不可抗力条款，该条款允许生产商在遭遇不可预见的灾难时暂停履行供应合 同。 高盛："黑天鹅"来袭，供应缺口或达数十万吨 市场的反应立竿见影。消息传出后，纽约商品交易所（COMEX）的铜期货价格上涨近4%，报4.825美元/磅。Freeport的股价在盘前交易中重挫， 而其竞争对手如嘉能可和Boliden等铜业公司的股价则应声上涨。 丹麦盛宝银行商品策略主管Ole Hansen对此评论道："交易员们先买入，然后再问问题"，精准地描绘了市场在供应恐慌下的本能反应。 高盛的大宗商品团队将此次Grasberg矿山 ...