Core Viewpoint - The recent disaster at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine has triggered significant supply concerns in the copper market, leading to a sharp increase in copper prices and a reevaluation of market dynamics [2][4][5] Group 1: Incident Overview - On September 8, a mudslide at the Grasberg mine resulted in the loss of two workers and left five missing, causing substantial damage to infrastructure [2] - The Grasberg mine contributes 3.2% of global copper supply and 70% of Freeport's gold production, making its operational halt critical [2] - Following the incident, copper prices surged by 4% to $4.825 per pound, while Freeport's stock fell by 8% [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - Traders reacted instinctively to the supply disruption, with significant price movements observed across the market [4] - Goldman Sachs characterized the event as a "black swan," predicting a potential copper supply loss of 500,000 tons over the next 12-15 months, which could escalate to 2 million tons if recovery is delayed [4] - The current inventory structure is problematic, with 60% of global visible inventory locked in North America due to tariffs, limiting alternative sourcing options for Asian buyers [4] Group 3: Broader Supply Chain Implications - Other mines, such as Peru's Constancia and Panama's Cobre Panama, are also facing operational challenges, contributing to a tightening copper market [5] - Citigroup and Bank of America have raised their 2025 copper price forecasts to $5.2 per pound, an 18% increase from earlier predictions [5] - Freeport has revised its production guidance for 2026 down by 35%, indicating a prolonged recovery timeline that may extend to 2027 for full capacity restoration [5] Group 4: Impact on Industries - The copper supply shortage poses a significant challenge for manufacturers focused on global energy transition, as electric vehicles and wind farms require substantial copper [5] - If the supply gap persists for two years, the electric vehicle sector alone could consume an additional 300,000 tons of refined copper, equivalent to 40% of global tradable inventory [5] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The capital markets are beginning to reassess the gap between green demand and brown supply, with significant inflows into copper mining ETFs and rising credit default swap rates for Freeport [6] - Analysts highlight that this operational disruption is the most severe for Freeport in 30 years, emphasizing the tangible risks posed by ESG factors and community conflicts [6] - The incident has exposed vulnerabilities in the global metal supply chain, raising concerns about potential systemic risks in the market [7]

Market Overview - A total of 41 stocks hit the daily limit up, while 19 stocks faced limit down, resulting in a sealing rate of 68% [1] - The three major indices showed divergence, with the ChiNext Index rebounding over 2% to reach a new three-year high [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.37 trillion yuan, an increase of 44.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Stock Performance - Huasoft Technology achieved a five-day limit up streak, while Lianmei Holdings and Bluefeng Biochemical both recorded a four-day limit up streak [1][3] - The highest limit up stock, Huasoft Technology, saw a 10.03% increase, driven by its focus on photoresists [12] - The gaming, AI applications, and controllable nuclear fusion sectors led the gains, while the port shipping, precious metals, and oil and gas sectors faced declines [1][6] Sector Analysis - The AI infrastructure investment by Alibaba, amounting to 380 billion yuan, is expected to drive a trillion-scale AI ecosystem [5] - The storage system bidding scale reached a historical high of 17.7 GW/45.7 GWh in August, marking a year-on-year increase of 237.1% [9] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a price increase trend, with companies like Longjiang Storage becoming a new unicorn in the sector [7][16] Key Stocks and Trends - Ningde Times and Sunshine Power both reached historical highs, reflecting a focus on major growth stocks in the market [6] - The copper market saw a spike due to a fatal landslide at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine, leading to a 3% increase in copper futures [8][30] - The gaming sector continues to show strong performance, with the National Press and Publication Administration issuing over 150 game licenses in a single month [6] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a trend favoring large-cap stocks in popular sectors, despite the risk of a downturn for underperforming small-cap stocks [10] - The semiconductor supply chain's heat is likely to spread to lower-tier stocks, as the market remains focused on high-performing segments [7][30]

Group 1 - Copper prices have shown signs of strength recently, breaking through the 80,000 mark, but the sustainability of this rise is questioned due to high prices suppressing demand [1][6] - The Grasberg mine in Indonesia, the second-largest copper mine globally, has faced production disruptions due to a natural disaster, leading to a significant downward revision in copper sales forecasts by Freeport [2][3] - The ongoing supply tightness in the copper market is exacerbated by previous disruptions in other major mines, highlighting the vulnerability of copper supply chains [3][4] Group 2 - Domestic copper smelting production is expected to decline due to tight raw material supplies and falling profits from by-products, indicating a shift in the production landscape [4][5] - Despite an increase in COMEX copper inventories, overall global copper stockpiles remain low, with limited accumulation in non-US regions, suggesting a tight supply environment [5][6] - The recent easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and the tightening supply situation have created a favorable environment for copper prices, which are expected to remain strong in the short term [6][8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Last night, copper prices soared, with both LME copper and SHFE copper rising over 3%. The share price of US mining giant Freeport - McMoRan tumbled. Today, copper prices maintained a strong trend, and SHFE copper's open interest increased significantly. Due to a mudslide at its Indonesian subsidiary's Grasberg mine, the world's second - largest copper mine, production has been suspended. Freeport expects the mine to return to pre - accident production levels by 2027 at the earliest, and copper and gold production in 2026 is projected to drop by 35%. In the short term, LME copper broke through the annual high, and SHFE copper neared it, showing strong upward momentum [5]. - **Aluminum**: Last night, aluminum prices rose following the sharp increase in copper prices. Today, aluminum prices fluctuated, and open interest decreased. At the macro level, the upward breakthrough of copper prices drove up the non - ferrous sector. At the industrial level, with the peak season and pre - holiday stocking demand, electrolytic aluminum social inventories declined on Thursday. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong [6]. - **Nickel**: Last night, nickel prices rose due to the sharp increase in copper prices. Today, nickel prices maintained a strong trend, and open interest increased. At the macro level, the non - ferrous market recovered. At the industrial level, the long - term oversupply of nickel elements still suppresses nickel prices. In the short term, as the non - ferrous sector as a whole rises, nickel prices are rising with increased positions. Attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the September high [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: During the morning trading session, SHFE copper rose by over 2,500 yuan/ton. The spot market's trading sentiment was weak. The export window opening may promote smelters' export plans, reducing holders' willingness to sell. Downstream copper consumers had few new orders and weak pre - holiday stocking. Since the mudslide at the Grasberg mine on September 8, it has been shut down for nearly two weeks. The company has activated force majeure clauses. Indonesia Freeport's copper production in 2026 may decline by 35% compared to previous estimates, and this incident may cause a 2.2% reduction in global copper supply in the future [9]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: Multiple charts related to copper are presented, including basis, domestic visible inventory, overseas exchange inventory, and others, which reflect the price and inventory trends of copper [11][13][18]. - **Aluminum**: Charts such as aluminum basis, domestic social inventory, and alumina inventory are provided, showing the price and inventory conditions of aluminum [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: Charts including nickel basis, LME inventory, and domestic warehouse receipt inventory are included, presenting the price and inventory trends of nickel [35][36][42].

（责任编辑：宋政 HN002） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 格隆汇9月25日｜铜价在亚盘时段下跌，回吐了前一交易日夜间的大幅涨幅。此前，矿业公司Freeport McMoran宣布，对其位于印尼的格拉斯伯格(Grasberg)矿山的合同供应启动不可抗力，推动LME铜期货 隔夜一度升至一年多来的新高。澳新银行分析师在一份报告中表示，这一事件重新引发了市场对供应的 担忧。该矿山占全球铜供应量的3.2%，并占该公司铜总产量的70%以上。预计意外的供应中断将影响全 球铜总产量的6%以上。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated strongly, with increasing trading volume and an increasing open interest; the spot was at a discount, and the basis weakened. The Grasberg mine in Indonesia under Freeport encountered a mudslide accident and suspended operations, which will have a significant impact on global copper production in Q4 2025 and in the future, and global copper ore supply may become tighter. On the supply side, the tight supply of raw materials and the recent decline in copper prices due to the Fed's interest - rate cut will limit smelters' profit margins, and domestic refined copper supply is expected to converge. On the demand side, the slight decline in copper prices has boosted downstream purchasing enthusiasm to some extent, and combined with the pre - holiday inventory demand, domestic demand has increased, and social inventory has slightly decreased. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and slightly increasing demand. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.19, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0833, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are converging. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 82,710 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2,750 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 10,367.50 US dollars/ton, a daily increase of 31 US dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was 20 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 238,523 lots, a daily increase of 66,079 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 16,618 lots, a daily decrease of 3,174 lots. The LME copper inventory was 144,975 tons, a daily decrease of 400 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 105,814 tons, a weekly increase of 11,760 tons. The LME copper canceled warrants were 11,775 tons, a daily decrease of 100 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 27,419 tons, a daily decrease of 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 82,505 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2,460 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 82,445 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2,375 yuan. The CIF (Bill of Lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 59 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The average premium of Yangshan copper was 56.50 US dollars/ton, a daily decrease of 4.50 US dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was - 205 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 290 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was - 31.37 US dollars/ton, a daily increase of 41.74 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 275.93 million tons, a monthly increase of 19.92 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 40.80 US dollars/thousand tons, a weekly increase of 0.50 US dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 70,340 yuan/metal ton, a daily increase of 20 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan was 71,040 yuan/metal ton, a daily increase of 20 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the South was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the processing fee for blister copper in the North was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 1.301 billion tons, a monthly increase of 310,000 tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 430,000 tons, a monthly decrease of 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, a weekly increase of 430,000 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 55,440 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 50 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 68,100 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 460 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 70 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 2.2219 billion tons, a monthly increase of 526,000 tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 331.497 billion yuan, a monthly increase of 40.431 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 6,030.919 billion yuan, a monthly increase of 672.942 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,250,287,100 pieces, a monthly decrease of 438,933,600 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 14.32%, a daily increase of 6.03 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 11.22%, a daily increase of 3.13 percentage points. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options in the current month was 13.13%, a daily increase of 0.0011 percentage points. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.19, a daily decrease of 0.0833 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned against a series of interest - rate cuts, expressing concerns about inflation and not supporting rate cuts at the next meeting; San Francisco Fed President Daly believed that economic growth and the labor market had slowed, and inflation was lower than expected, so further rate cuts might be needed. On September 24, mining giant Freeport disclosed that its Grasberg mine in Indonesia suffered a mudslide accident on September 8, which caused casualties and damaged mining facilities. The mine has suspended operations. Preliminary assessment shows that this may lead to significant production delays in the near term (Q4 2025 and 2026), and operations may return to pre - incident levels in 2027. Freeport's comprehensive sales in Q3 2025 are expected to be about 4% lower than the July 2025 estimate. Chinese Premier Li Qiang attended the High - level Meeting on the Global Development Initiative and stated that China, as a responsible developing country, will not seek new special and differential treatment in current and future WTO negotiations. Li Qiang met with European Commission President von der Leyen in New York, hoping that the EU would fulfill its commitment to keep trade and investment markets open, adhere to fair competition and WTO rules, and avoid politicizing and securitizing economic and trade issues [2].

CONCLUDED Topics Memberships Stock Market News From Sept. 25, 2025: S&P 500 Drops for a Third Session Last Updated: 14 hours ago Copper Climbs as Freeport Mine Accident Worries Market By Giulia Petroni, Dow Jones Newswires Copper prices extended gains in early trading, after surging nearly 4% in the previous session following news that Freeport-McMoRan declared force majeure on contracted supplies from its Grasberg mine in Indonesia. Futures on the London Metal Exchange were up 1.3% to $10,455.50 a metric t ...

Demand）为2，758.6万吨，即今年预测供需平衡差（Balance）为26.7万吨，但料全球2026年精炼铜总产量预测为2，806.2万吨、2026年精炼铜总需求量为2，848.2万吨，即明年预测供 责任编辑：史丽君 Teniente矿山事故，以及秘鲁示威等因素，将进一步加剧短期矿山供应风险。该行原先预测2026年全球矿山供应增长约2%（50万吨），并已计入约5%的供应干扰；如今因应Grasberg指引调 过去2至3年，精炼铜供应增长持续超出矿山供应成长，导致铜精矿和废铜市场趋紧，但同时推迟了精炼市场的紧张状况，也因此抑制了铜价长期突破每吨1万美元的涨势。该行认为Grasberg矿 2026年铜精炼供应预测下调，将扩大精炼市场的供给缺口。虽然与关税相关的宏观不确定性及市场波动持续，中国铜需求仍展现韧性，电网与储能需求强劲，弥补了太阳能与家电需求在下半年 该行亦列出全球2025年精炼铜总产量（Total Refined Production）预测为2，785.3万吨、2025年精炼铜总需求量（Refined 瑞银发表报告表示，FCX因今年9月8日印尼Grasberg矿区（全球第二大铜矿）地下出现矿难（大量 ...

瑞银研报指，Grasberg矿场停产将加剧2026年全球铜市场预期的供给缺口，该行重申对铜价乐观展望。 瑞银预计2025年全球精炼铜供需平衡差为26.7万吨，2026年供需平衡差为负42.1万吨。(格隆汇) 麦克莫兰铜金公司(FCX.US)昨日因旗下印尼矿场停产消息大跌近17%，今日盘前反弹超2%，报38.44美 元。 消息面上，麦克莫兰铜金公司日前确认，其位于印尼的Grasberg矿场(全球第二大铜矿)9月8日发生的泥 石流事故已造成两名工人死亡，另有五名工人仍下落不明。公司称，该矿场的营运或在2026年上半年分 阶段重启并逐步恢复，预计明年铜金产量较此前预期下降约35%。受此消息刺激，LME铜价昨日涨超 3%，升至逾15个月高位。 ...

Group 1 - Copper prices surged, with the night session opening high and reaching a peak of 82,980 yuan, marking the highest point since late March this year, closing up 3.4%, while international copper rose by 3.58% [1] - Freeport announced a force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia and lowered its copper sales forecast, highlighting the vulnerability of the mining sector and intensifying the tension in raw material supply [1] - Following the mudflow incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine, Freeport indicated that it would notify commercial counterparts of the force majeure situation and reduced its third-quarter copper sales guidance by 4% [1] Group 2 - The preliminary assessment suggests that the Grasberg mine may return to pre-incident operational levels by 2027, with Freeport's 2026 copper production target lowered by 35% compared to pre-incident levels, raising concerns over global copper supply [1] - Jinrui Futures stated that the short-term supply and demand are weakening, expecting a continued tight balance in the market, with prices likely to shift to a stronger trend due to significant mining disruptions [1]