As investors we often tend to neglect certain idiosyncratic risks that are both rare and hard to predict. The recent event at Freeport-McMoRan's (NYSE: FCX ) Grasberg Block Cave mine (GBC) in Indonesia is a perfect example of just that and unfortunately itVladimir Dimitrov, CFA is a former strategy consultant within the field of brand and intangible assets valuation. During his career in the City of London he has been working with some of the largest global brands within the technology, telecom and banking ...

记者丨 张嘉钰 周蕊 编辑丨曾静娇 和佳 9月25日，美股三大指数低开，截至北京时间22:46，道指跌0.1%，纳指跌0.48%，标普跌 0.4%。 | 美股指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | 46077.31 | 22390.73 | 6611.20 | | -43.97 -0.10% -107.13 -0.48% | | -26.77 -0.40% | | 中国金龙 | 纳指100期货 | 标普500期货 | | 8673.64 | 24611.25 | 6663.50 | | +44.27 +0.51% -128.00 -0.52% -28.75 -0.43% | | | 中国资产拉升 中概股新能源汽车股走高 美股科技七巨头跌多涨少，特斯拉跌超3%，其8月在欧盟的新注册量同比下降超36%至8220 辆。 谷歌、Meta跌逾1%。 苹果、英伟达分别上涨0.34%、0.35%。 明星个股方面，英特尔涨超5%，盘中一度涨至8%，触及2024年7月以来的最高水平。消息面 上，英特尔寻求让苹果提供投资，作为提振业务的后备计划。 自由港麦克莫兰 ...

Group 1: Supply Forecast Changes - Goldman Sachs has lowered its global copper supply forecast for 2025 and 2026 due to disruptions at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia [1] - The bank estimates a potential loss of 525,000 metric tons of copper supply, leading to a reduction of 160,000 tons in the second half of 2025 and 200,000 tons in 2026 [3][9] - Grasberg's production is expected to decline by 250,000 to 260,000 tons in 2025 and by 270,000 tons in 2026 [4] Group 2: Impact on Freeport McMoRan - Freeport McMoRan has declared force majeure and halted mining activities to prioritize the rescue of trapped workers, with two bodies recovered so far [2] - The company anticipates very low production in the fourth quarter of 2025, with operations potentially restarting next year [5][6] - Grasberg accounts for half of Freeport's proven reserves and 70% of its projected copper and gold output through 2029, leading to a share price drop of over 21% since the update [7] Group 3: Market Implications - The disruption has shifted the global copper market from a projected surplus of 105,000 tons in 2025 to a deficit of 55,500 tons, while 2026 is expected to remain in a small surplus [8] - Goldman Sachs revised its estimates for global mine production growth for 2025 to 0.2%, down from 0.8%, and for 2026 to 1.9%, down from 2.2% [9] - The supply risks support Goldman's bullish outlook on copper prices, reaffirming a target of $10,750 per ton by 2027 [9] Group 4: Price Forecasts - Goldman sees upside risks to the December 2025 LME price forecast of $9,700 per ton, with potential prices in the $10,200-$10,500 range [10] - Current contracts are priced at $10,336 per ton, reflecting a 3% increase on the day [10]

Core Viewpoint - Freeport-McMoRan Inc. is currently under investigation for potential securities fraud violations, which may impact its stock performance and investor confidence [1] Group 1 - The investigation is being conducted by the DJS Law Group, indicating potential legal implications for the company [1] - Investors are encouraged to discuss their rights in light of the ongoing investigation, suggesting that there may be significant repercussions for shareholders [1]

Core Viewpoint - A significant mining accident at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia has led to a supply disruption, raising concerns about a long-term copper shortage and causing a sharp increase in copper prices [2][4]. Group 1: Incident Overview - On September 24, Freeport-McMoRan announced that its supply contracts entered a state of "force majeure" due to a large landslide on September 8, resulting in two fatalities and five missing workers [2]. - The Grasberg mine is the second-largest copper mine globally and also the largest gold mine, contributing approximately 3.2% of global copper supply and nearly 30% of Freeport's copper production [9]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, copper futures on the New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) surged nearly 4%, reaching $4.825 per pound, while Freeport's stock fell in pre-market trading [4]. - Competitors like Glencore and Boliden saw their stock prices rise, indicating a market reaction driven by supply fears [4]. Group 3: Supply Impact - Goldman Sachs labeled the Grasberg shutdown as a "black swan event," predicting a loss of 500,000 tons of copper supply over the next 12 to 15 months, with potential further losses of 1 to 2 million tons [7]. - The supply disruption is expected to have a disproportionate impact on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) due to existing overstock issues in the U.S. market [11]. Group 4: Long-term Production Outlook - Freeport has lowered its third-quarter copper and gold sales guidance by 4% and 6%, respectively, and anticipates a 35% drop in copper and gold production for 2026 compared to previous estimates [14]. - Full production recovery at Grasberg may not occur until 2027, raising concerns for industries reliant on copper, such as electric vehicles and renewable energy [14][15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mudslide accident at the GBC mine in the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has a significant impact on global copper supply, and the impact on the copper industry chain has just begun [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Event Review and Background - On September 8, a mudslide occurred at the GBC mine in the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, causing 2 deaths and 5 missing, and the mine has been shut down since the accident [1] - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is the world's third - largest copper mine, with a copper production of 816,500 metric tons in 2024, accounting for 3.55% of the global copper production of 23 million tons [1] - In 2024, the daily output of copper concentrate at the Grasberg mine was 208,365 tons, with the GBC mine accounting for 64% (about 133,800 tons), the DMLZ mine accounting for 32% (about 64,900 tons), and the Big Gossan mine accounting for 4% (about 8,000 tons) [1] - The Grasberg copper mine is an important asset of Freeport - McMoRan, an international mining company. The Indonesian subsidiary PT Freeport Indonesia holds 48.76% of the Grasberg underground mine, and the rest is held by Indonesian state - owned enterprises [2][3] 2. Production Impact Analysis - After the accident on September 8, all mining operations in the Grasberg mine in Indonesia stopped. The investigation is expected to be completed by the end of 2025 [4] - The impact on Freeport Indonesia's third - quarter sales is not significant. After the accident, the estimated third - quarter copper sales decreased by about 4% compared to July, but it is still estimated to be 433,592 tons due to inventory [4] - The DMLZ and Big Gossan mines are expected to restart in mid - fourth quarter of 2025 (November). The GBC mine will start phased restart and capacity increase in the first half of 2026 [5] - Freeport Indonesia's copper sales in the fourth quarter of 2025 will be negligible, estimated at 20,184 metric tons [5] - The GBC mine's PB2 and PB3 production blocks will restart and increase production in the first half of 2026, PB1S of PB1C will start in the second half of 2026, and the rest of PB1C will restart in 2027 [5] - In the phased restart scenario, the estimated copper production in 2026 is 501,220 tons, which is 61.3% of the 2024 production [6] 3. Market Outlook - After Freeport announced force majeure at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, copper prices on the LME and SHFE rose significantly. The impact of this accident on the global copper supply will be large and long - lasting [7]

Group 1 - A landslide at Indonesia's Grasberg mine has severely impacted the global copper market, with an immediate loss of approximately 800,000 tons of wet mud flooding the mine, resulting in two fatalities and five missing workers [2] - Freeport-McMoRan has declared force majeure on supply contracts, leading to a 4% spike in COMEX copper prices to $4.825 per pound, while competitors like Glencore and Boliden saw their stock prices rise [2] - Goldman Sachs estimates a potential market loss of at least 500,000 tons of copper over the next 12-15 months, with the possibility of the shortfall expanding to 2 million tons if recovery efforts are delayed [2] Group 2 - The political protests in Peru have led to the suspension of operations at the Constancia mine, further straining an already tight supply chain for copper [3] - The demand for copper in electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and power grids is intensifying, with any shortfall of 100,000 tons likely to trigger uncontrollable price increases [3] Group 3 - Freeport has lowered its Q3 sales guidance for copper and gold by 4% and 6% respectively, and has outlined a phased resumption plan, with the earliest restart of unaffected areas expected in Q4 2025 [4] - The unprecedented landslide has exposed vulnerabilities in the global copper and gold supply chain, indicating that a sudden loss of 3% of production can significantly slow down the green transition [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mudslide accident at the GBC mine in Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine has had a significant impact on the global copper supply, and the impact on the copper industry chain has just begun [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1) Event Review and Background Statement - On September 8, a mudslide occurred at the GBC mine of Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine, resulting in two deaths and five missing. The mine has been shut down since the accident [1] - The Grasberg copper mine is the world's third - largest copper mine, with a copper production of 816,500 metric tons in 2024, accounting for 3.55% of the global copper production of 23 million tons [1] - The Grasberg copper mine has three underground mining areas in operation. In 2024, the daily production of copper concentrate was 208,365 tons, with the GBC area accounting for 64% [1] - The Grasberg copper mine is an important asset of Freeport - McMoRan, an international mining company headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, USA [2] - Freeport - McMoRan's Indonesian subsidiary, PT Freeport Indonesia, holds 48.76% of the Grasberg underground mine, and the remaining equity is held by Indonesian state - owned enterprises [3] 2) Production Impact Analysis - After the accident on September 8, all mining operations in the Grasberg mining area stopped. The investigation is expected to be completed by the end of 2025 [4] - Freeport Indonesia's third - quarter sales were not significantly affected. After the accident, the estimated third - quarter copper sales decreased by about 4% compared to the July estimate, but copper concentrate inventory can temporarily make up for it [4] - The DMLZ and Big Gossan mines are expected to restart operations in mid - Q4 2025, while the phased restart and capacity increase of the GBC mine will begin in the first half of 2026 [5] - The company believes that copper sales in Q4 2025 will be negligible, at 44.5 million pounds (20,184 metric tons) [5] - The GBC mining area will restart and increase production in phases. It will not return to the pre - incident estimated level until 2027 [5] - In the scenario of phased restart and capacity increase, Freeport Indonesia estimates that copper production in 2026 will be 65% of 1.7 billion pounds, i.e., 501,220 tons, which is 61.3% of the 2024 production [6] 3) Market Outlook - Affected by the announcement of force majeure at the Grasberg copper mine, the copper prices on the LME and SHFE rose significantly last night. The impact of this accident on the global copper supply will be large and will not disappear quickly [7]

近日，美国矿业巨头Freeport McMoRan印尼子公司Grasberg矿山发生致命泥石流事故，导致两名工人死亡。作为应对，公司暂停了该矿区的生产活动，并启 动了不可抗力条款。这一突发事件被华尔街迅速定性为"黑天鹅"事件，引发了市场对铜供应长期短缺的忧虑，并推动铜价大幅飙升。 持续影响全球铜供应链 9月8日，Grasberg GBC矿区中的一个区块发生大规模湿性矿料涌出事故，Grasberg矿区停产。9月24日，Grasberg发布进展公告，9月8日发生的泥石流事故已 造成两名工人死亡，另有五名工人仍下落不明。 根据Freeport预计，最早要到2027年才能恢复事故前的生产水平，2026年铜金产量较此前预期下降约35%。该矿山占公司已探明储量的50%和2029年前预计 产量的约70%。长期停产将对全球铜供应链造成持续冲击。 公开资料显示，Freeport McMoRan Inc.（自由港迈克墨伦铜金矿公司）是一家在全球矿业领域占据重要地位的国际矿业公司。其在北美、南美、印度尼西亚 等地从事金、钼等矿产资源开发。北美地区有7座露天开采铜矿和2座钼矿，如亚利桑那州的Morenci铜矿；南美运营秘鲁的塞罗贝尔 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. miner has declared force majeure on contracted supplies from its Grasberg mine in Indonesia due to a fatal mudslide accident, leading to an extension of price gains in the market [1] Group 1 - The declaration of force majeure indicates that the company is unable to fulfill its contractual obligations due to unforeseen circumstances [1] - The Grasberg mine is a significant source of supply, and disruptions here can impact global commodity prices [1] - The fatal mudslide accident raises concerns about operational safety and potential regulatory scrutiny for the company [1]