格隆汇11月18日｜中金发表研报指，吉利汽车今年首三季度收入按年增长43%至2395亿元，归母净利润 131亿元，按年持平。第三季度营业收入按年增长48%至892亿元，归母净利润按年增长56%至38.2亿 元，符合该行预期。中金表示，由于公司新车周期较强，且银河M9、领克900等新车爬坡提振盈利能 力，分别上调吉利今明两年净利润预测4.5%、11.9%至169亿、197亿元；维持"跑赢行业"评级和目标价 26港元，分别对应2025年14.2倍市盈率和2026年12.1倍市盈率。 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公佈之內容概不負責，對其 準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並表明不會就因本公佈全部或任何部份內容而產生 或因倚賴該等內容而引致之任何損失承擔任何責任。 GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED 175 80175 23億港元自動股份回購計劃 股份回購計劃 茲提述吉利汽車控股有限公司（「本公司」）日期為二零二五年十月六日之公佈，內容有關 本公司董事會（「董事會」）批准一項最高達23億港元（「港元」）的自動股份回購計劃（「自願 公佈」）。茲亦提述本公司日期分別為二零二五年七月十五日及八月十八日之公佈及通 函，內容有關對ZEEKR Intelligent Technology Holding Limited（「極氪」）私有化之要約 （「要約」）及本公司可能發行最多1,098,059,328股新普通股（「股份」）作為代價（「代價股 份」）。 本公司欣然宣佈，於二零二五年十一月十八日，本公司與獨立經紀商Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc（「該經紀商」）訂立一份股份回購協議（「回購協議」），據此，該經紀 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that Geely Automobile's stock price will rise in absolute terms over the next 15 days, with an estimated probability of 70% to 80% for this scenario to materialize, maintaining an "Overweight" rating and a target price of HKD 24 [1] Financial Performance - The company's net profit for the third quarter reached CNY 3.8 billion, with a gross margin of 16.6%, which is an improvement over the first half's 16.4% [1] - For the first three quarters, core earnings amounted to CNY 10.6 billion, and the company is still on track to achieve its annual target of CNY 15 billion [1] Valuation and Market Outlook - Considering the strong product planning for 2026, Morgan Stanley views the current consensus price-to-earnings ratio of 9 times for the next 12 months as providing an attractive risk-reward ratio compared to the two-year average of 10 to 11 times [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company's performance in Q3 2025 met expectations, with significant revenue growth driven by increased sales and an optimized product matrix [1][2]. Performance Review - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue increased by 43% year-on-year to 239.5 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders remained flat at 13.1 billion yuan [1]. - In Q3 2025, operating revenue rose by 48% quarter-on-quarter and 15% year-on-year to 89.2 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 56% quarter-on-quarter and 6% year-on-year to 3.82 billion yuan [1]. Development Trends - Sales volume surged by 46% year-on-year to 2.1702 million vehicles in the first three quarters of 2025, with Q3 2025 sales increasing by 43% quarter-on-quarter and 8% year-on-year to 761,000 vehicles [1]. - By brand, sales in Q3 2025 were 53,000 for Zeekr, 87,000 for Lynk & Co, and 327,000 for Galaxy, with quarter-on-quarter increases of 7%, 7%, and 13% respectively [1]. - The company is focusing on overseas markets, with Q3 2025 export sales increasing by 19% quarter-on-quarter to 112,000 vehicles [1]. Profitability and Quality Improvement - The gross profit margin in Q3 2025 improved by 1 percentage point year-on-year to 16.6%, benefiting from economies of scale and enhanced profitability of new energy vehicles [2]. - The company effectively managed expenses, with the combined sales, management, and research expense ratio decreasing by 0.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 12.4% [2]. Shareholder Returns and Product Upgrades - The company announced a large-scale share buyback plan in Q3 2025, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns [2]. - The product strategy focuses on full-domain intelligence, with new models like the Galaxy A7 and Zeekr 9X set to launch in the second half of the year [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to a strong new car cycle and the ramp-up of models like Galaxy M9 and Lynk & Co 900, the company raised its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 4.5% and 11.9% to 16.9 billion yuan and 19.7 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.4 times for 2025 and 8.0 times for 2026, with a target price of 26.00 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 51.2% from the current price [2].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais indicates that Geely Automobile's net profit for the third quarter is 3.8 billion yuan, translating to a profit of approximately 5,000 yuan per vehicle, compared to 4,700 yuan in the first half of the year. This improvement in sales price and unit profit is primarily driven by changes in product mix and economies of scale [1] Financial Performance - Geely's third-quarter net profit is reported at 3.8 billion yuan, with a profit per vehicle of about 5,000 yuan, an increase from 4,700 yuan in the first half of the year [1] - The bank expects this trend of improved profitability to continue into the fourth quarter, leading to an upward revision of the profit forecast for the year by 12% [1] Strategic Outlook - Management has set an export target of 1 million units for next year, with an anticipated penetration rate of 50% for new energy vehicles [1] - The expected merger with the subsidiary Zeekr is anticipated to yield better synergies [1] Market Position - The bank forecasts that Geely will maintain resilience in its performance next year and reaffirms a target price of 23 Hong Kong dollars, with a rating of "highly confident to outperform the market" [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Geely Automobile (00175.HK) with a target price of HKD 26.00, indicating a potential upside of 51% from the current price [1][7]. Core Insights - Geely Automobile's Q3 2025 performance shows significant growth, with revenue reaching HKD 89.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 3.82 billion, up by HKD 1.4 billion year-on-year and HKD 0.2 billion quarter-on-quarter [1][7]. - The company is entering a new product cycle with several competitive new models launched, including the Galaxy A7 and Galaxy M9, which are expected to drive sales growth. The sales volume in October reached 307,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 35% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12% [7][8]. - The report highlights the company's improved cost control, with a sales expense ratio of 6.0%, a management expense ratio of 1.5%, and a research and development expense ratio of 4.9% [7]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Geely Automobile are as follows: - 2024A: HKD 241.1 billion - 2025E: HKD 344.8 billion - 2026E: HKD 446.3 billion - 2027E: HKD 493.4 billion - The net profit projections are: - 2024A: HKD 16.6 billion - 2025E: HKD 17.8 billion - 2026E: HKD 24.0 billion - 2027E: HKD 27.2 billion [3][9]. Market Position and Valuation - Geely's valuation is considered low compared to its growth potential, with a projected PE ratio of 9x for 2025 and 7x for 2026. The report suggests that the current market pessimism presents a good investment opportunity [7][8]. - The report anticipates that the company will benefit from a recovery in the automotive market and an increase in overseas sales, with total sales expected to reach 3.04 million, 3.73 million, and 4.02 million units from 2025 to 2027, respectively [7][9].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Geely Automobile's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, driven by economies of scale, improved product mix, and expanded export contributions [1] Financial Performance - Core net profit for the period was 4% higher than the bank's forecast [1] - Profit per vehicle increased by 15% quarter-on-quarter to 5,200 HKD [1] Management Insights - During the earnings meeting, management emphasized the vehicle launch plan for next year, along with strategies for autonomous driving (AD) and exports [1] - The bank views these strategies positively and expects stronger growth momentum in the upcoming quarter and next year [1] Investment Rating - The bank maintains an "Overweight" rating on Geely, with a target price of 24 HKD [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reported that Geely Automobile's third-quarter revenue reached 89 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15% and a year-on-year increase of 26%, driven by an 8% rise in sales volume, indicating a mid-single-digit expansion in average selling price [1] Financial Performance - The net profit for the third quarter was 3.8 billion yuan, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6% and a year-on-year increase of 58%, slightly exceeding Morgan Stanley's expectation of 3.7 billion yuan and aligning with market expectations [1] - For the first three quarters, core net profit increased by 59% to 10.6 billion yuan, on track to achieve the annual target of 15 billion yuan [1] Investment Rating - Morgan Stanley has assigned an "Overweight" rating to Geely Automobile, with a target price set at 24 Hong Kong dollars [1]

Summary of Geely Automobile Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Geely Automobile - **Industry**: Automotive, specifically focusing on electric vehicles (EVs) and traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles Key Financial Metrics - **Sales Volume**: 2.17 million units in the first three quarters, a 46% year-over-year increase, surpassing the industry average growth rate of 14% [2][4] - **Market Share**: Increased to 10.2% in 2025, up from 8% in 2024 [11] - **Revenue**: Q3 revenue reached 89.2 billion RMB, a 27% year-over-year increase; total revenue for the first three quarters was 239.5 billion RMB, up 26% [2][4] - **Core Net Profit**: 3.96 billion RMB in Q3, a 19% year-over-year increase; cumulative core net profit for the first nine months was 10.62 billion RMB, up 59% [2][4][7] - **Gross Profit**: Q3 gross profit was 14.8 billion RMB, an 11% increase year-over-year, with a stable gross margin of 16.6% [2][7] Electric Vehicle Performance - **EV Sales**: 1.168 million units sold in the first three quarters, a 114% year-over-year increase; Galaxy series sales increased by 206% [2][5] - **Battery Sales**: 443,000 units sold in Q3, a 15% increase, with a penetration rate of 58% [5] - **Export Growth**: Q3 exports totaled 112,000 units, a 19% increase; cumulative exports reached 296,000 units, with EV exports up 24,018% [6][20] Cost Control and Profitability - **Cost Management**: Sales expense ratio decreased to 5.7%, and R&D expense ratio fell to 6.1% [7][14] - **Profit Margins**: Core net profit margin improved to 4.4% from 4.1% [7] Future Plans and Market Strategy - **New Model Launches**: Plans to introduce multiple new models in Q4, including compact plug-in hybrids and upgraded versions of existing models [3][9] - **Sales Target**: Aiming for 3 million units sold in 2025 [3] - **Global Expansion**: Continued focus on global market penetration, with plans to increase distribution network from 890 to 1,000-1,200 dealers [21] Industry Outlook and Policy Impact - **2026 Policy Changes**: Anticipated to drive a more mature automotive market; Geely expects minimal impact on profits due to strategic adjustments and new model launches [10][18] - **Market Concentration**: Increased market concentration with the top five manufacturers' market share rising from 38% in 2023 to 47-48% in 2025 [17] Technological Advancements - **Autonomous Driving**: Focus on enhancing autonomous driving technology, particularly in high-definition mapping and driver assistance features [22] - **Electric and Hybrid Technology**: Plans to upgrade electric motor and control systems to version 3.0, enhancing efficiency and performance [26] Challenges and Risks - **Market Competition**: The competitive landscape is expected to intensify, with smaller players likely to exit the market [10][16] - **Supply Chain Coordination**: Ongoing efforts to ensure the supply of components for high-end models amidst industry challenges [24] Conclusion Geely Automobile is positioned for significant growth in the EV market, with strong sales performance, effective cost management, and a clear strategy for future model launches and global expansion. The company is optimistic about navigating upcoming policy changes and market challenges while continuing to innovate in technology and product offerings.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [10]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance is robust, with new car sales reaching 761,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 42.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.1%. Total revenue for Q3 is 89.19 billion yuan, up 47.7% year-on-year and 14.7% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company has shown a strong ability to improve its product mix, driven by the growth in the new energy vehicle segment and a recovery in exports. However, the gross margin has slightly declined due to the increased proportion of new energy vehicles, which typically have lower margins compared to traditional fuel vehicles [2]. - The company is expected to maintain strong operational performance in Q4, with continued growth in the new energy segment and stable performance in traditional business lines [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3, the company achieved a gross margin of 16.6%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.0 percentage points. The actual net profit attributable to the parent company for Q2 was 3.96 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 61.3% [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company sold 2.169 million new cars, a year-on-year increase of 45.6%, with total revenue of 239.48 billion yuan, up 26.4% year-on-year [1]. Cost and Expenses - The company’s sales, administrative, and R&D expense ratios for Q2 were 6.0%, 1.5%, and 4.9%, respectively, showing a slight decrease from the previous quarter [1]. - The report highlights that the company has maintained a stable expense structure, with expense ratios decreasing quarter-on-quarter [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its upward trajectory, with new models like the Zeekr 9X and Galaxy M9 set to enhance the product lineup and improve profitability [2][4]. - The report projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 16.6 billion, 19.68 billion, and 24 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 10.45, 8.81, and 7.24 [4].