Group 1 - The upcoming interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to benefit Hong Kong real estate while negatively impacting Hong Kong banks [1] - UBS maintains a cautious stance on banks, currently underweighting bank stocks and listing Hang Seng Bank as one of the least favored [1] - The firm continues to favor Hong Kong property developers as the interest rate cut cycle approaches, predicting a reversal of the trend where banks have outperformed property developers since 2022 [1] Group 2 - In the first half of the year, 98% of the 49 Hong Kong-listed companies covered by UBS reported a net profit decline of 7% year-on-year, despite a 4% increase in revenue [2] - The financial sector performed well, benefiting from favorable market conditions and better-than-expected non-interest income, while sectors like Macau gaming and airlines faced more companies falling short of expectations [2] - UBS has included Wynn Macau and Galaxy Entertainment in its top recommendations due to improved demand from high-end customers and sustainable revenue momentum [2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has updated its forecasts for Galaxy Entertainment (00027) based on the company's mid-term performance, increasing the expected dividend payout ratio for 2025 to 2027 from 50% to 60%, resulting in a 19% increase in the predicted dividend per share [1] Financial Projections - EBITDA forecasts for Galaxy Entertainment for 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 1% due to higher expected operating expenses [1] - Earnings per share forecasts have been adjusted from HKD 2.39, HKD 2.58, and HKD 2.73 to HKD 2.36, HKD 2.56, and HKD 2.72 respectively for the same period [1] - The target price for Galaxy Entertainment has been raised from HKD 40 to HKD 44 [1] Market Position and Risks - The opening of the Capella Hotel is expected to help Galaxy Entertainment increase its market share [1] - The company has been given a "in line with the market" rating, but there are warnings that if competitors resume dividends and the company's market share continues to weaken, some potential premiums may reverse [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has updated its forecasts for Galaxy Entertainment (00027) based on the company's mid-term performance, increasing the dividend payout ratio from 50% to 60% for 2025 to 2027, resulting in a 19% increase in the predicted dividend per share [1] Financial Projections - EBITDA forecasts for Galaxy Entertainment for 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 1% due to higher expected operating expenses [1] - Earnings per share forecasts have been adjusted from HKD 2.39, HKD 2.58, and HKD 2.73 to HKD 2.36, HKD 2.56, and HKD 2.72 for the respective years [1] - The target price for Galaxy Entertainment has been raised from HKD 40 to HKD 44 [1] Market Position and Risks - The opening of the Capella Hotel is expected to help Galaxy Entertainment increase its market share [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains a "market perform" rating but warns that if competitors resume dividends and the company's market share continues to weaken, some potential premium may reverse [1]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has raised Galaxy Entertainment's dividend payout ratio forecast for 2025 to 2027 to 60% and increased the per-share dividend forecast [1] - Despite slight downward adjustments to EBITDA and earnings per share forecasts for 2025 to 2027, the target price for Galaxy Entertainment has been raised to HKD 44 [1] - The opening of the Capella Hotel is expected to help Galaxy Entertainment increase its market share, maintaining a "market perform" rating [1] Group 2 - There is a risk of valuation premium decline if competitors resume dividend payouts and Galaxy Entertainment's market share continues to weaken [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has updated its forecast for Galaxy Entertainment, raising the dividend payout ratio prediction for 2025 to 2027 from 50% to 60%, with a 19% increase in the per-share dividend forecast [1] Financial Projections - EBITDA forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 1% due to higher operating expense expectations [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts have been adjusted from HKD 2.39, 2.58, and 2.73 to HKD 2.36, 2.56, and 2.72 for the respective years [1] - The target price for Galaxy Entertainment has been raised from HKD 40 to HKD 44 [1] Market Position and Outlook - The opening of the Capella Hotel is expected to help Galaxy Entertainment increase its market share [1] - Morgan Stanley has assigned a "market perform" rating, but cautions that if competitors resume dividends while Galaxy's market share remains weak, some potential premium may reverse [1]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | 截至月份: | 2025年8月31日 | 狀態: 新提交 | | --- | --- | --- | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | 公司名稱: | 銀河娛樂集團有限公司 | | | 呈交日期: | 2025年9月3日 | | | I. 法定/註冊股本變動 不適用 | | | | 備註： | | | | 銀河娛樂集團有限公司並無法定股本，及其股本並無股份面值。 | | | FF301 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 FF301 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00027 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 4,374,894,550 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Macau's gaming revenue (GGR) reached a post-pandemic high in August, growing 12% year-on-year to MOP 22.2 billion, aligning with market expectations [1] - Compared to pre-pandemic levels, August's gaming revenue has recovered to 91% of the figures [1] - The report suggests that the performance in August reflects a turning point for the Macau gaming industry, driven by wealth effects and ample liquidity in the Hong Kong market [1] Group 2 - The company anticipates that the strong momentum will continue for some time, projecting a year-on-year growth of 15% in gaming revenue and 21% in EBITDA for the first quarter of next year [1] - In terms of stock recommendations, the company prefers Galaxy Entertainment and MGM China, with target prices set at HKD 54 and HKD 23 respectively [1] - Sands China is the second choice with a target price of HKD 24.5, all rated as "buy," while Melco International Development is rated as "sell" with a target price of HKD 4.5 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Galaxy Entertainment reported a mixed performance in 2Q25, with net revenue growth but lower-than-expected EBITDA, leading to revised earnings forecasts and a lowered target price while maintaining a Buy rating [1][4]. Financial Performance - 2Q25 net revenue reached HK$12.0 billion, reflecting an 8% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 10% year-over-year increase [1]. - Normalized adjusted EBITDA was HK$3.2 billion, showing a 7% increase QoQ but a 1% decrease YoY, attributed to a lower mass market hold rate [1]. - Total gross gaming revenue, mass market revenue, slot machine revenue, and VIP rolling chip volume recovered to 82%, 130%, 138%, and 31% of 2Q19 levels, respectively [2]. - EBITDA recovery was at 79% of the 2019 level [2]. Dividend and Cash Position - As of June 30, 2025, the company's net cash stood at HK$30.3 billion [4]. - The interim dividend is set at HK$0.70 per share, with a payout ratio increased to 58% from 50% in 2024 [4]. New Developments - The Capella Hotel, a 95-all-suite project, has been in trial operation since May, with full opening expected soon [3]. - Construction of Phase 4 of Galaxy Macau is progressing, with completion scheduled for 2027, featuring high-end hotel brands, a theater with approximately 5,000 seats, green gardens, a water resort deck, and a casino [3]. Investment Outlook - The target price has been revised down from HK$55 to HK$50, indicating a 24% upside potential, while the Buy rating is maintained due to the resilience of the gaming business and long-term growth potential [1][4].

Core Viewpoint - Galaxy Entertainment's Q2 2025 financial results show strong recovery in gaming operations, driven by the concert economy, but stock performance was muted due to profit-taking and operational pressures at the StarWorld Hotel [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Q2 2025 gaming gross gaming revenue (GGR) reached HKD 12 billion, up 16% year-on-year and 10% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 82% of Q2 2019 levels [1]. - VIP gaming revenue was HKD 2.4 billion, up 73% year-on-year and 22% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 33% of Q2 2019 levels [1]. - Mass gaming revenue was HKD 8.8 billion, up 6% year-on-year and 7% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 130% of Q2 2019 levels [1]. - Slot machine revenue was HKD 800 million, up 19% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 139% of Q2 2019 levels [1]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was HKD 3.6 billion, up 12% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 82% of Q2 2019 levels [1]. Group 2: Entertainment and Customer Traffic - In the first half of 2025, Galaxy hosted 190 entertainment, sports, and exhibition events, resulting in a 65% year-on-year increase in customer traffic [2]. - Notable events included the World Table Tennis Championships and concerts by major artists, leading to a peak daily visitor count of 123,000 [2]. - The company is advancing the upgrade of the StarWorld Hotel and the construction of Phase IV in Cotai, which will feature a theater, water park, and family-friendly facilities, expected to open in 2027 [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Valuation - The entertainment momentum is expected to continue into the second half of 2025, with various events planned that could enhance customer traffic across the Cotai area [3]. - The target price for Galaxy has been raised to HKD 49.5, reflecting a valuation premium due to its strong market position and diversified non-gaming offerings [3]. - GGR forecasts for 2025-2027 have been increased by 1.6%, 5.6%, and 2.7% to HKD 459 billion, HKD 529 billion, and HKD 568 billion respectively [3].

Core Viewpoint - Galaxy Entertainment's 2Q25 performance met market expectations, with net revenue of HKD 12.044 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8%, recovering to 91% of 2Q19 levels [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for 2Q25 was HKD 3.569 billion, up 12% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter, aligning closely with Bloomberg's expectation of HKD 3.540 billion [1] - The company announced an interim dividend of HKD 0.70 per share, corresponding to a payout ratio of approximately 60% [1] Growth Drivers - The strong performance was attributed to the opening of the Capella hotel, which increased market share, and entertainment activities that boosted property visitation [1] - Cost control measures helped maintain stable daily operating costs [1] Management Insights - The management expects capital expenditure for 2025 to be HKD 7 billion, with HKD 3 billion spent in the first half of 2025 [1] - The company plans to continue hosting large concerts and entertainment events in Macau, recognizing the sustainability and return potential of integrated resorts [1] Market Positioning - The high-end gaming segment continues to outperform the regular gaming segment, driven by the opening of Capella [1] - The management anticipates that the StarWorld Hotel will benefit from the demand for satellite casinos, which are expected to close by the end of 2025 [1] Investment Outlook - Due to the better-than-expected performance of Capella, the adjusted EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 5% and 3% to HKD 14.524 billion and HKD 15.330 billion, respectively [2] - The target price has been increased by 6% to HKD 44.80, reflecting an 11% upside potential based on a 10x EV/adjusted EBITDA for 2025 [2]