Core Viewpoint - The discussion highlights five stock picks for February, emphasizing a mix of growth and value stocks, all of which are components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, suggesting a focus on diversification in investment strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Picks - Microsoft has seen a significant decline, down 23% from its recent high, making it an attractive buy opportunity [3][5]. - Merck is identified as a healthcare value play that has recently broken out of a downtrend, presenting a potential investment opportunity [5][6]. - Honeywell is noted as a solid name with good dividend payouts, although investors should be strategic about entry points based on chart analysis [7][8]. - Procter & Gamble, despite a poor one-year trend, is suggested as a defensive investment in a potentially anxious market environment [10][11]. - JP Morgan, down about 5% in January, is considered a best-in-class bank, with the potential for investors to initiate positions as it is viewed as a strong investment [12][13]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience a pullback of 10-15% due to midterm election uncertainties, which could create opportunities for strategic investments [16][17]. - The first half of the year may see turbulence, but there is optimism for a recovery and overall market growth in the latter half [23][24]. - The S&P 500 is projected to return 10-12%, while the NASDAQ may outperform with returns in the high teens, around 15-18% [26][27]. - Small and mid-cap stocks are already showing strong performance, up about 9% in the first month, indicating a favorable outlook for these segments [25].

来源：图虫 没有一点点防备。 今天，COMEX白银跌幅一度超过16%，伦敦银现一度跌超18%，并且还在加速下跌中。 刚才看着分时图，所有人应该都被吓倒了，速度之快、幅度之大、抛盘之猛，都是前所未见。 场面极度血腥。 这不是基本面的崩塌，而是情绪与杠杆的雪崩。 大家都想跑，但门被焊死了。 01、集体叛变，趁火打劫 罪魁祸首是获利盘的集体叛变。 白银的炒作格局，本身就极其脆弱——资金进来的快，出去的更快，尤其是加了杠杆的投机资金，一旦市场出现风吹草动，就会疯狂出逃，引发踩踏。 具体可以分为三个层面： 第一，带头跑路的"聪明钱"。 机构不是慈善家，他们在110美元以上的高位看着手里巨额的浮盈，心里想的只有四个字：落袋为安。 他们不会发邮件通知你，只会悄悄地卖，直到把价格砸出一个缺口。 早从1月23日银价突破100美元开始，摩根大通、高盛就开始悄悄减持净多头持仓。截至今日，两大巨头的净多头持仓占比已从35%降至22%，累计减持3.2万 手。 而这期间，散户还在疯狂追高，Robinhood平台白银散户持仓量增长30%。 根据CFTC实时持仓数据，今日早盘，摩根大通、高盛等华尔街巨头率先减持白银非商业净多头持仓，其中摩根 ...

Company Overview - JPMorgan Chase is a leading financial institution with a strong track record, delivering a total return of 156% over the past five years [2] - The bank operates in various sectors, including investment banking, capital markets, consumer banking, and asset management [2] Financial Performance - JPMorgan's stock is currently priced at $306.42, reflecting a 1.88% increase or $5.65 [4] - The stock has fluctuated between $302.22 and $306.82 today, with a market capitalization of approximately $834.16 billion [4] - Over the past year, the stock reached a high of $337.25 and a low of $202.16 [4] Valuation Metrics - JPMorgan's price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 2.4, which is 33% higher than its five-year average and 75% more expensive than Bank of America [2] Future Projections - JPMorgan projects its net interest income (NII) for 2026 to reach approximately $103 billion, marking a 7% increase from the previous year [3][5] - This growth is expected despite anticipated rate cuts, as the bank relies on increased loan volumes, revolving card balances, and deposit gains [3]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan now expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to begin raising the official cash rate starting in September, with an anticipated increase of 100 basis points by mid-2027, a shift from the previous forecast of the first rate hike in Q1 2027 [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Interest Rate Projections** - JPMorgan forecasts the official cash rate to rise from 2.25% at the end of 2026 to 2.75% [1] - By mid-2027, the rate is expected to reach 3.25% [1]

Core Insights - The renewed interest in international markets is driven by geopolitical tensions, currency flows, and a weakening dollar, leading to a diversification from US-centric portfolios [1][5][24] - Active management in ETFs is gaining traction, with a significant increase in flows and new fund launches, particularly in international markets [20][23][48] ETF Market Trends - 2025 has been a record-breaking year for ETFs, with over 1,000 new ETFs launched, 83% of which are actively managed [3][20] - US trading volume reached $58 trillion, surpassing previous records, with strong flows into ETFs continuing from the previous year [3][4] International Market Performance - International markets have outperformed the US by approximately 16% over the past 14 months, indicating a performance catch-up after years of underperformance [6][8] - The dollar's weakening has contributed to increased flows into international markets, with over $216 billion in flows last year, marking a 100% increase [4][5] Investment Opportunities - There is a growing interest in European and emerging markets, driven by lower interest rates and a shift in market dynamics [24][25] - Specific sectors such as technology, particularly in Asia, and commodities in Latin America are highlighted as key areas for investment [30][40] Active Management in ETFs - Active ETF flows in the US reached $470 billion, a 60% increase from the previous year, indicating a shift towards actively managed portfolios [20][48] - Funds focusing on international value and emerging markets are seeing significant net flows, reflecting investor interest in these areas [21][22] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Geopolitical developments, such as trade agreements and shifts in global economic dynamics, are influencing investment strategies and market allocations [16][45] - The trend of deregulation in Europe is seen as a powerful driver for investment opportunities, enhancing the attractiveness of international markets [14][46]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan Chase has shown significant stock performance with a total return of 156% over the past five years, but its high valuation may lead investors to consider alternatives like Nu Holdings [1] Group 1: JPMorgan Chase Overview - JPMorgan Chase operates across various sectors including investment banking, capital markets, consumer banking, and asset management [1] - The stock trades at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.4, which is 33% higher than its five-year average and 75% higher than Bank of America [3] - The company reported a 7% year-over-year revenue growth in Q4 2025 and a net profit margin of 31% last year, indicating strong financial health and effective risk management [4] Group 2: Nu Holdings Overview - Nu Holdings is a digital bank with a strong foothold in Brazil, serving 110 million customers, which is 60% of the adult population in the country [5] - The company reported a remarkable 42% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3, capitalizing on the developing financial market in Latin America [6] - Although Nu's Q3 net margin of 19% is lower than JPMorgan Chase's, analysts project a 178% growth in earnings per share from 2024 to 2027, indicating strong future potential [7]

Core Viewpoint - International markets are expected to continue their outperformance, driven by factors beyond just dollar weakness, indicating a shift towards more fundamental investing changes [1][2]. Group 1: International Market Performance - The dollar is projected to decline by approximately 1% annually over the next decade, contributing to the outperformance of international markets [2]. - International equities currently trade at a 32% discount to US equities, compared to an average discount of 19% over the past 20 years, highlighting strong valuation opportunities [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - There are compelling investment opportunities in sectors such as financials, energy, materials, and select industries within the international market [3]. - The international value fund, ticker JIVE J, is highlighted as a top-performing fund with about $1 billion in inflows last year, indicating strong investor interest [4].

Core Insights - Bitcoin price has underperformed despite a more than 10% drop in the US Dollar Index over the past year, leading to confusion among investors [1] - JPMorgan strategists attribute Bitcoin's failure to rise to the weakening dollar primarily to short-term market flows and sentiment rather than fundamental changes in US economic growth or monetary policy [2][3] Group 1: Bitcoin and US Dollar Relationship - Historically, Bitcoin price tends to move inversely to the US Dollar, but recent trends show a divergence [2] - The current weakness in the US dollar is seen as temporary, with potential recovery in the US economy likely to boost the dollar index [3] - Interest rate differentials have shifted in favor of the US dollar since the beginning of the year, indicating that the current dollar selloff is driven by market sentiment rather than structural changes [3] Group 2: Bitcoin vs. Precious Metals - Gold has reached a historic high of $5,500 amid the dollar's weakness, while Bitcoin remains rangebound, suggesting it is behaving more like a risk asset than a store of value [4] - JPMorgan believes that until currency markets are influenced by growth and rate dynamics instead of sentiment, Bitcoin may continue to lag behind traditional macro hedges [5] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trading Activity - Recent data indicates $1.8 billion in outflows from US Bitcoin ETFs, reflecting declining institutional confidence in Bitcoin [5] - The Glassnode report highlights that Bitcoin is consolidating with low trading volumes, and long-term holders have sold approximately 143,000 BTC in the past 30 days, marking the fastest distribution since August 2025 [6]

1月29日，挪威央行投资管理（Norges Bank Investment Management）正式发布 2025 年年度投资报告。 数据显示，全球最大主权财富基金之一的挪威政府全球养老基金（Government Pension Fund Global，GPFG）在2025年实现15.1%的整体回报率，基金规模 于2025年12月31日达到21.268万亿挪威克朗（约合15.47万亿人民币）。 从基金规模变动细节来看，2025年基金会计收益达2.362万亿克朗（约1.72万亿人民币），但受挪威克朗对多国主要货币升值影响，汇率因素导致基金价值 缩水。同时，扣除管理费用后的资金净流入为319亿克朗，多重因素共同作用下，基金全年规模净增1.526万亿克朗。 从资产类别表现来看，权益类投资成为基金收益的核心驱动力。2025年，基金股票投资回报率高达19.3%，显著跑赢其他资产类别。其中，科技、金融及 基础材料板块表现尤为突出，贡献了权益投资的主要收益。挪威央行投资管理首席执行官尼古拉・丹根（Nicolai Tangen）在声明中强调："2025年基金交 出了极具说服力的成绩单，科技、金融与基础材料领域的优质股票持续 ...

Core Insights - JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley are the leading financial advisers in the global retail M&A sector for 2025, with JPMorgan leading in deal value and Morgan Stanley in deal count [1][2] Deal Value Summary - JPMorgan advised on retail M&A transactions worth $44.5 billion in 2025, ranking first in total deal value [1] - Morgan Stanley followed in second place with $37.9 billion in advised retail deals, benefiting from several significant transactions [2] - Goldman Sachs ranked third with $33.2 billion, Citi fourth with $29.2 billion, and UBS fifth with $28.4 billion [3] Deal Count Summary - Morgan Stanley recorded the highest number of mandates in the retail sector, working on 11 announced deals [1] - UBS also completed 11 transactions, sharing the upper ranks with Morgan Stanley [3] - Rothschild & Co advised on 11 deals, while JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs each worked on nine deals in the retail segment [3]