Group 1 - Japan's July import and export data, along with June's core machinery orders, are scheduled for release [1] - China's August one-year and five-year loan market quoted rates will be announced [1] - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference regarding the preparations for the military parade [1] Group 2 - New Zealand's central bank will announce its official cash rate and hold a monetary policy press conference [1] - The UK will release its July Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1] - The Eurozone's final July CPI will be published [1] Group 3 - Major companies including Baidu, iQIYI, and Kingsoft Cloud are set to release their earnings reports after the Hong Kong stock market closes [1] - U.S. companies such as Lowe's, Target, and Estée Lauder will report their earnings before the market opens [1] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its weekly crude oil inventory report [1] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve will publish the minutes from the July FOMC monetary policy meeting [1] - The President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve will discuss economic outlook [1] - Google will hold a press conference to launch new Pixel brand hardware [1]

Core Viewpoint - The second-quarter earnings season is concluding, with over 90% of S&P 500 companies reporting results, and the retail sector is prominently featured this week [1] Company Performance: Home Depot - Home Depot reported its second consecutive earnings miss, with adjusted EPS of $4.68 compared to expectations of $4.71, reflecting a 0.64% miss, and total revenues of $45.28 billion versus $45.51 billion, a 0.5% miss [6] - The company experienced a 0.86% increase in net income year-over-year and a 4.9% increase in revenues compared to the second quarter of 2024 [6] - Comparable sales increased by 1.0%, with U.S. comparable sales rising by 1.4%, although foreign exchange rates negatively impacted total comparable sales by approximately 40 basis points [7] - Home Depot reaffirmed its guidance for total sales growth of approximately 2.8% for the fiscal year, with comparable sales growth of 1.0% and an expected adjusted EPS decline of 2% to $15.24 [9] - The company is facing challenges from elevated interest rates and a slowdown in the home improvement sector, which has seen reduced demand due to high mortgage rates and rising home prices [4][10] Industry Context: Home Improvement Sector - The home improvement sector is currently ranked in the bottom 16% of approximately 250 Zacks Ranked Industries, with most stocks considered overvalued and expected to experience below-average earnings growth [3] - The sector has been adversely affected by a broader operating environment characterized by high interest rates and weak discretionary spending, leading to a slowdown in large-scale home remodeling projects [4] - Despite the challenges, the aging housing stock and rising home equity levels are expected to support long-term demand in the home improvement market [18] Upcoming Performance: Lowe's - Lowe's is expected to report second-quarter earnings of $4.24 per share, a 3.41% improvement year-over-year, with revenues anticipated to climb 1.47% to $23.93 billion [12][15] - The company has not missed earnings estimates since 2019 and has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 3.22% [13] - Lowe's has expanded its reach to larger professional customers through the acquisition of Artisan Design Group, which is expected to enhance its capabilities in new home construction and large-scale renovation projects [16]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming earnings reports from Home Depot and Lowe's for indications of improvement in the home and garden market, which has been facing several challenges [1][2]. Industry Summary - The home and garden retail sector is experiencing difficulties due to a sluggish housing market, tariffs, high interest rates, and consumer caution regarding large purchases. Despite overall retail growth from May to July, building materials and garden supply retailers reported year-over-year declines of at least 4% [2]. - Home Depot and Lowe's have been gaining market share from smaller competitors, benefiting from their strong brand presence and competitive pricing strategies [3]. Company Summary - Home Depot reported total sales of $39.9 billion for its first quarter, reflecting a 9.4% year-over-year increase, although comparable sales decreased by 0.2% due to foreign exchange impacts [4]. - Lowe's experienced a decline in total sales from $21.4 billion to $20.9 billion year-over-year, with comparable sales down 1.7%. The company attributed this drop to unfavorable weather conditions, though it noted growth in online sales and its professional business segment [5]. - Lowe's emphasized its commitment to customer service, achieving the 1 ranking in Customer Satisfaction among Home Improvement Retailers according to J.D. Power. The company is focusing on strategic investments in technology and store environments to enhance customer experience [6].

Core Insights - Lowe's (LOW) and Home Depot (HD) are in a competitive market, both facing challenges as consumer spending on big-ticket home improvement items has decreased post-COVID [1][15] - Both companies have underperformed relative to the S&P 500 in 2025, reflecting a similar trajectory in their stock performances [1][7] Analyst Expectations - Analysts have not revised EPS and sales estimates for both companies recently, with LOW expected to see 1.5% EPS growth on 3.4% higher sales, while HD is projected to have a 5.4% increase in EPS with 1.0% sales growth [3] - Despite LOW's anticipated stronger sales growth, HD has shown more resilience in its top line, with year-over-year (YoY) growth rates turning positive after previous declines [4][5] Sales and Performance Metrics - LOW's YoY sales growth rates have been negative since early 2023, while HD's sales have shown improvement with a smaller YoY decline of 0.3% compared to LOW's 1.7% [8][10] - HD's shares trade at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 25.3X, a 29% premium over LOW's 19.6X, indicating a historical premium for HD [9] Market Environment - Both companies are navigating a challenging demand environment post-COVID, with rising interest rates contributing to softer consumer demand [15][16] - Guidance from Home Depot's earnings report will be crucial for LOW's expectations, as both companies maintain a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [17]

Earnings Season Overview - The second quarter earnings season has been successful with more beats and raises than misses, particularly led by the Mag 7 stocks [1] - Nvidia's upcoming report is highly anticipated [1] Retail Sector Focus - This week's focus is on major retailers to assess price increases, inflation, tariff impacts, and consumer behavior [2][3] - Key retailers to watch include Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT), along with home improvement retailers like Home Depot (HD) and Lowe's (LOW) [3] Home Improvement Retailers (Home Depot & Lowe's) - Home Depot (HD) has a strong earnings surprise track record with only one miss in the last five years [4] - Home Depot's earnings have declined in the last couple of years due to housing market conditions and tariffs, with a projected earnings decline of 1.4% to 4%, but a rebound is expected next year [5][6] - Lowe's (LOW) also has a great earnings surprise track record with earnings expected to decline but then recover, projecting a 2.4% to 4% gain this year and another in 2027 [7][8] - Both Home Depot and Lowe's shares haven't significantly declined as a turnaround is expected and priced in [9] General Retailers (Walmart & Target) - Walmart (WMT) has been performing strongly, with shares attempting to break out, and earnings looking better than Home Depot and Lowe's [9][10] - Walmart's valuation is at 38 times earnings, with a strong earnings surprise track record [10] - Target (TGT) is struggling with declining earnings, trading near 5-year lows, and a 15.6% decline expected for this year [12][13] - Both Walmart and Target are being watched for pricing strategies and consumer buying behavior, considering factors like back-to-school shopping and groceries [11][12][14] Specialty Retailer (Estee Lauder) - Estee Lauder (EL) has a strong earnings track record with mostly beats, but earnings have declined, especially due to the struggling Chinese consumer [15] - Estee Lauder's earnings are expected to improve in the next couple of years, but a 42% decline is expected this year [16] - Estee Lauder's forward PE is not cheap at 42 times, even with the share price decline [16] - Tariffs are impacting beauty products, with E.L.F beauty raising prices, and Estee Lauder's response is being monitored [18]

Retail Earnings & Tariffs Impact - Retail sector is facing a significant week with earnings reports from Home Depot, Target, Lowe's, and Walmart [1] - Potential impact of tariffs on the financial results of these retailers is a key concern [1] - Three out of the four retailers mentioned use accounting methods that could reveal the impact of tariffs [2] Companies to Watch - Home Depot's results will be released tomorrow [1] - Target and Lowe's will report on Wednesday [1] - Walmart's earnings are scheduled for Thursday [1]

美股今年二季度的财报已近尾声。 据悉，标普500指数成分股公司的营收、利润以超出预期为主。据慧甚(FactSet)最新数据，这些公司二 季度利润较上年同期增长12%左右，远高于分析师在7月初预测的5%的增幅。 本周零售业财报还将陆续公布，受到投资者关注。 高风险牛市 本季度美股财报整体延续了上季度的态势，表现较为出色。 在上一季度接近尾声时，市场预计标普500指数成分股公司第一季度利润同比增长约13%，盈利增长约 7%。进入二季度，随着特朗普关税政策的变动、债券市场紧张和通胀预期升高，市场不确定性逐渐升 温。不过，稳健的财报帮助股市挽回了春季动荡造成的损失。FactSet预计，标普500指数成分股公司二 季度利润将同比增长12%左右，远高于分析师在7月初预测的5%的增幅。 一系列利好消息助长了投资者信心：标普500指数已较4月份的低点攀升29%，今年以来的累计涨幅达到 9.7%。 投顾平台圣所财富(Sanctuary Wealth)首席投资策略师玛丽.安.巴特尔斯(Mary Ann Bartels)评价，"人们原 以为美国经济会放缓，就业会减速，这会对盈利产生负面影响。但这种情况并没有发生。" 但并非所有领域 ...

Core Viewpoint - Home Depot and Lowe's are set to report their Q2 earnings, with both companies showing positive stock momentum despite earlier tariff challenges. The upcoming earnings reports will be critical in assessing their recovery and future performance [1][11]. Group 1: Q2 Earnings Expectations - Home Depot's Q2 sales are projected to increase by 5% to $45.51 billion, up from $43.18 billion a year ago, with earnings expected to rise by approximately 1% to $4.71 per share from $4.67 [2]. - Lowe's Q2 sales are anticipated to grow nearly 2% to $23.99 billion compared to $23.59 billion in the prior period, with EPS expected to increase by 3% to $4.24 from $4.10 [3]. Group 2: Tariff Strategies - Lowe's has been more affected by tariff increases due to its reliance on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico. The CEO has emphasized competitive pricing and internal strategies to mitigate customer impact, including supply chain diversification and product redesign [4]. - Home Depot has a more diversified supply chain, sourcing over 50% of its products from U.S. suppliers, and has managed to shield customers from tariff impacts by avoiding aggressive price increases [5]. Group 3: Valuation Comparison - Lowe's stock is valued at 20.5X forward earnings, which is lower than Home Depot's 26.6X. Lowe's also trades below the industry average of 21X and the S&P 500's 24.7X [8]. - Home Depot's price-to-sales ratio stands at 2.4X, while Lowe's is below the optimal level of less than 2X [8]. Group 4: Dividend Comparison - Home Depot offers a 2.3% annual dividend yield, which is higher than Lowe's 1.9%. Both companies' dividends exceed the industry average of 1.06% and the S&P 500's average of 1.15% [10]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - The upcoming Q2 reports will be crucial for both companies to determine if they have moved past tariff challenges. Home Depot is viewed as a more favorable investment due to its diversified supply chain, while Lowe's may appeal to investors looking for a cheaper stock price [11].

Group 1: Lowe's Strategic Initiatives - Lowe's Companies, Inc. is enhancing its competitive edge through technology integration and loyalty programs, introducing "Mylow," an AI-powered Home Improvement Virtual Advisor, and a redesigned MyLowe's Pro Rewards program as part of its "Total Home" strategy [1][4] - Mylow, developed with OpenAI, offers step-by-step project guidance and is integrated into Lowe's app and website, facilitating immediate purchases of recommended tools and materials [2][9] - The revamped Pro Rewards program simplifies enrollment, includes a Spanish-language option, and allows points to be earned from the first purchase, aiming to increase wallet share among Pro customers [3][4] Group 2: Market Context and Competitor Strategies - In a selective spending environment, Lowe's is betting on AI and loyalty upgrades to deepen customer relationships and improve conversion rates, with success dependent on Mylow's recommendation accuracy and the Pro Rewards program's effectiveness [4] - The Home Depot is enhancing its in-store competitiveness by equipping associates with advanced digital tools to improve customer satisfaction and sales performance [5] - Floor & Decor is focusing on both digital and in-store strategies, broadening design services and customer offerings to enhance its competitive advantage [6][7] - Williams-Sonoma is leveraging a digital-first strategy, advancing mobile re-platforming and AI personalization to drive growth and improve e-commerce sales [8]

Core Viewpoint - Lowe's is expected to report quarterly earnings of $4.24 per share, a 3.4% increase year-over-year, with revenues projected at $23.99 billion, reflecting a 1.7% year-over-year increase [1] Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.2% lower over the last 30 days, indicating a collective reevaluation by analysts [2] - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, with empirical studies showing a strong relationship between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price performance [3] Key Metrics - Analysts forecast the total number of stores for Lowe's to reach 1,752, up from 1,746 a year ago [4] - The consensus estimate for total sales floor square footage is 195.42 million, compared to 195.00 million the previous year [5] - The average store size selling square feet is expected to remain at 112.00 thousand, unchanged from the year-ago figure [5] Stock Performance - Lowe's shares have increased by 15.8% in the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which moved up by 3.3% [5] - With a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), Lowe's is anticipated to mirror overall market performance in the near future [5]