Core Insights - Altria (MO) is positioned to potentially continue its earnings-beat streak in the upcoming report, having a history of beating earnings estimates, particularly in the last two quarters with an average surprise of 3.35% [1][2] Earnings Performance - For the last reported quarter, Altria achieved earnings of $1.23 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.17 per share, resulting in a surprise of 5.13% [2] - In the previous quarter, Altria was expected to post earnings of $1.27 per share but delivered $1.29 per share, yielding a surprise of 1.57% [2] Earnings Estimates and Predictions - There has been a favorable change in earnings estimates for Altria, with a positive Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction), indicating a strong likelihood of an earnings beat [5] - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) or better have historically produced a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time [6] Current Earnings ESP and Outlook - Altria currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.42%, suggesting analysts are optimistic about its near-term earnings potential [8] - Combined with a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), this indicates a strong possibility of another earnings beat in the upcoming report, expected on July 30, 2025 [8]

Group 1 - The focus is on growth and dividend income as a strategy for retirement planning [1] - The portfolio is structured to generate monthly dividend income that grows through reinvestment and annual increases [1] Group 2 - The article expresses personal opinions and is not intended as investment advice [2][3] - It emphasizes the importance of conducting individual research before making investment decisions [2]

Core Viewpoint - Jefferies has initiated coverage on several leading companies in the tobacco industry, providing a mix of ratings including three "Buy" ratings, one "Hold" rating, and one "Underperform" rating, highlighting the sector's stable growth potential and defensive asset characteristics [1][2] Company Summaries - Philip Morris International (PM.US) received a "Buy" rating, with expectations of high single-digit (HSD) growth in EBITDA driven by its leadership in heated tobacco and oral nicotine pouch segments, despite its stock price being above the industry average [1] - Altria (MO.US) was assigned an "Underperform" rating with a target price of $50, facing risks of high single-digit (HSD) sales decline in combustible tobacco and challenges from consumer price pressures, although its traditional oral nicotine market position partially offsets growth potential in modern oral products [1] - Imperial Brands (IMBBY.US) also received a "Buy" rating, noting improvements in combustible tobacco market share and successful execution of its smoke-free product strategy, particularly in the U.S. modern oral product sector [2] - Japan Tobacco (JAPAY.US) was given a "Hold" rating, with attractive strategic positioning in emerging markets and healthy core combustible tobacco business, supported by global flagship brand growth in developed markets [2] - British American Tobacco (BTI.US) is highlighted as a preferred choice in the tobacco sector, with Philip Morris International also achieving the highest quantitative score on the Seeking Alpha platform, indicating strong market recognition [2]

Core Viewpoint - Altria Group's stock is experiencing a significant decline following a negative rating from Jefferies, despite a generally positive market trend [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Altria's stock price fell by 4.1% as of 2:30 p.m. ET, with a maximum decline of 4.5% earlier in the trading session [1]. - Despite the current pullback, Altria's stock has increased approximately 24% over the past year [1]. Group 2: Analyst Coverage - Jefferies initiated coverage on Altria with an underperform rating and set a one-year price target of $50 per share, indicating a potential downside of about 12.5% [3]. - The lead analyst, Edward Mundy, believes that Altria's valuation has become stretched following its recent stock price increase [3]. Group 3: Market Trends - Altria is facing a potential secular decline in smokable tobacco products, with consistent declines in unit sales for cigarettes in recent years [4]. - The company has been able to offset some declines in cigarette unit volumes through price increases [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Altria is focusing on increasing demand for smoke-free products and has seen some recent successes in this area [5]. - The company's current valuation stands at approximately 10.6 times this year's expected earnings, with a dividend yield of around 7.2% [5].

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. (MO) has achieved a 21.2% gain over the past six months, outperforming the Zacks Consumer Staples sector's growth of 10.7% and the S&P 500's advance of 6.3% [1] - The stock is trading near its 52-week high of $60.25, just 1.6% below the peak reached on May 7, 2025, indicating strong upward momentum [4] - Altria's strong performance is attributed to robust pricing power in its core combustible tobacco segment, particularly with its flagship brand, Marlboro, which commands a 10.8% net price realization [8][9] Performance Comparison - Altria's stock performance is strong relative to major tobacco players, with Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) surging 51.2%, Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) gaining 28.5%, and British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) increasing by 37% over the same period [3] - The stock's position above key technical benchmarks, including the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, suggests sustained bullish momentum [4][5] Financial Metrics - Altria repurchased 5.7 million shares and paid $1.7 billion in dividends in the first quarter of 2025, reinforcing its commitment to shareholder returns [6][12] - The company's forward 12-month P/E ratio is 11.03, which is attractive compared to the industry average of 15.28, positioning Altria as a compelling value opportunity [13][15] Growth Drivers - The Marlboro brand expanded its share of the premium category to 59.3% in the first quarter, supported by advanced Revenue Growth Management tools [9] - Altria's smoke-free product line, particularly the oral nicotine pouch brand on!, saw an 18% increase in shipments, capturing 8.8% of the oral tobacco category and 17.9% of the nicotine pouch segment [10] - The company is addressing regulatory challenges in the e-vapor category and is committed to refining its product pipeline for future market re-entry [11] Investment Outlook - Altria's combination of strong pricing power, growth in smoke-free products, and a proactive approach to regulatory challenges positions it well for long-term performance [18] - The stock is viewed as a solid opportunity for value and income-focused investors, particularly given its discounted valuation and attractive dividend yield [18]

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. is recognized for its perceived safety in investments, often associated with phrases like "Sleep well at night" and "Like Clockwork" [1] Group 1 - The company is known for its dividends, appealing to long-term investors through Dividend Growth Investing (DGI) and Dividend Reinvestment Plans (DRIP) [1] - Altria is also considered a viable option for short-term trading, indicating its versatility in investment strategies [1]

Group 1 - The analyst's previous bearish call on Altria Group, Inc. was incorrect, indicating a potential shift in the company's performance or market perception [1] - The focus is on building a portfolio that balances growth potential with strong fundamentals, emphasizing high-quality businesses primarily in the U.S. and Europe [2] - The investment strategy includes considerations of capital allocation and the long-term viability of businesses, aiming for financial independence through thoughtful investing [2] Group 2 - There is no current stock or derivative position in any mentioned companies, and no plans to initiate such positions in the near future [3] - The article expresses personal opinions and is not influenced by compensation from any company mentioned [3] - Seeking Alpha clarifies that past performance does not guarantee future results and that the views expressed may not represent the platform as a whole [4]

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. is focusing on its oral nicotine pouch brand on! to enhance its presence in the smoke-free category, achieving over 18% shipment growth in Q1 2025 and increasing its market share to 8.8% [1][7] - The brand on! has captured 17.9% of the nicotine pouch segment, reflecting its strength despite competitive pressures and rising prices [1][7] - Strategic investments, particularly the "It's On!" marketing campaign, have significantly boosted consumer awareness, now exceeding 60% [2] Company Performance - Altria's shipment growth for on! is attributed to effective marketing and the upcoming launch of on! PLUS, targeting a key demographic for expansion [2][3] - The company is well-positioned for future growth through disciplined pricing strategies, brand equity, and planned innovations [3] - Altria's stock has gained 1.5% over the past month, contrasting with a 0.2% decline in the industry [6] Peer Comparison - Philip Morris continues to lead the nicotine pouch market with ZYN, reporting a 63% year-over-year increase in shipments, reaching over 200 million cans in Q1 2025 [4] - Turning Point Brands is also gaining traction with its modern oral products, forecasting nearly 10x year-over-year growth and expanding its sales force [5] Valuation and Earnings Estimates - Altria trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.84X, below the industry average of 15.11X [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates year-over-year earnings growth of 4.9% for 2025 and 3.3% for 2026 [9]

Group 1: Company Overview - Altria's primary business involves selling nicotine products, with cigarettes constituting the majority of its revenue [2] - The company operates within the consumer staples sector, which typically includes products with consistent demand [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - Altria experienced a 13.7% year-over-year decline in cigarette volumes in the first quarter of 2025, indicating a continuing downward trend [4] - The company took a $900 million write-down in the first quarter to reduce the carrying value of its investment in NJOY due to a patent lawsuit [6] Group 3: Strategic Challenges - Altria has made multiple attempts to find alternative products to replace cigarettes, but these efforts have resulted in significant financial losses [5][9] - The company previously invested heavily in Juul and Cronos, both of which led to multi-billion-dollar write-downs and ultimately failed to deliver expected returns [8][9] Group 4: Investment Outlook - Despite a high dividend yield of 6.9%, the underlying business struggles raise concerns about the sustainability of this yield [1][10] - The lack of successful product replacements and ongoing challenges suggest that most investors may find the risk associated with Altria's stock to be unworthy [10]

Group 1 - Altria Group (NYSE: MO) is a major tobacco company that focuses solely on the American market, owning brands like Marlboro which dominates this market [1] - The company spun off Philip Morris International to concentrate on its domestic operations [1] - The analyst expresses a focus on undervalued and disliked companies with strong fundamentals and good cash flows, particularly in sectors like Oil & Gas and consumer goods [1] Group 2 - The analyst has a long-term value investing approach but also engages in deal arbitrage opportunities [1] - There is a noted skepticism towards high-tech businesses and certain consumer goods, with a preference for more traditional products [1] - The analyst does not understand the appeal of investing in cryptocurrencies [1]