I'm an investment analyst with several years of clinical experience and a Master of Business Administration, now expanding my focus beyond biotech and healthcare into a range of sectors. Since 2017, I've had the privilege of sharing my insights on Seeking Alpha. My work emphasizes financial modeling techniques, such as Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis, to uncover hidden assumptions within stock valuations across multiple industries. By deconstructing metrics like revenue growth rates and cash flow margin ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2024, Novartis reported a 10% increase in net sales and a 20% increase in core operating income in constant currency, with a core margin of 40.1%, reflecting a 340 basis point improvement year-over-year [8][34] - For the first nine months of 2024, net sales grew 11%, core operating income also increased by 20%, and core EPS was $5.83, up 21% [35][36] - Free cash flow reached $6 billion in Q3, the highest ever achieved in a single quarter, and $12.6 billion for the first nine months, a 15% increase [34][35] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Entresto's sales increased by 26% in Q3, marking its 10th consecutive year of growth, with strong performance in hypertension in China and Japan [11] - Cosentyx grew by 28%, driven by new launches, with a 38% increase in the U.S. and 16% outside the U.S. [12] - Kesimpta saw a 28% growth, with a 56% increase in constant currencies when excluding a one-time adjustment [14] - Kisqali achieved 43% growth, with a 50% increase in the U.S. and a 36% increase outside the U.S. [16] - Pluvicto grew by 50% in Q3, with a focus on preparing for the PSMAfore launch in 2025 [19] - Scemblix grew by 72% in Q3, becoming the preferred option for third-line CML [24] - Fabhalta received accelerated approval in the U.S. for IgA nephropathy, with strong early performance [28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Novartis expects continued strong performance across key growth drivers, with a 5% sales growth guidance extended to 2028 [10] - The market for Cosentyx in HS is projected to expand significantly, potentially reaching over $5 billion [13] - The PSMAfore launch is expected to triple the patient population eligible for Pluvicto [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Novartis raised its full-year guidance for the third time, indicating strong underlying momentum across growth drivers and new launches [36][42] - The company is focused on innovation, with multiple Phase III readouts and submissions planned for key products [42] - Novartis is committed to a shareholder-friendly capital allocation strategy, including ongoing share buybacks and investments in R&D [38] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the coverage gap reform in 2025 is expected to have a neutral impact on the business, with adjustments already factored into long-term guidance [47] - The company remains confident in its ability to grow top and bottom lines in 2025, despite anticipated headwinds from generic entries [53] - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining strong market positions for key products, particularly in the face of increasing competition [58] Other Important Information - Novartis is actively pursuing M&A opportunities to strengthen its pipeline and technology platforms, particularly in RLT and immunology [38][81] - The company is also focused on legislative efforts to amend the IRA, which could impact pricing and market access for its products [112][113] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of coverage gap reform on Cosentyx and Entresto - Management indicated that the coverage gap reform will have both positive and negative impacts, but overall is expected to be neutral and already factored into guidance [47] Question: Timing of promotional efforts for Pluvicto - Management stated that promotional efforts would take about six months to show impact, with significant growth expected post-PSMAfore launch [50] Question: Tailwinds and headwinds for 2025 - Management highlighted new indications and launches as tailwinds, while LoEs for certain products are anticipated as headwinds [54] Question: Competitive dynamics for Cosentyx in HS - Management expressed confidence in Cosentyx's market position due to strong clinical data and established relationships with dermatologists [58] Question: Growth expectations for Pluvicto - Management noted that growth in the ex-U.S. market is ongoing, but pricing dynamics are currently limiting revenue translation [62] Question: Kisqali patent expiry - Management confirmed that the estimated patent expiry for Kisqali in Europe is August 2032 [68] Question: Future M&A appetite - Management indicated a balanced approach to capital allocation, with ongoing share buybacks and M&A opportunities being pursued [81][92] Question: Impact of GLP-1s on Pelacarsen study - Management clarified that while GLP-1s have modest effects on Lp(a), the focus of the study is on patients with significantly elevated Lp(a) levels [77] Question: Update on IRA legislation - Management provided an update on ongoing legislative efforts to amend the IRA, highlighting bipartisan support for proposed changes [112][113]

Swiss pharma giant Novartis AG (NVS) reported better-than-expected results for the third quarter of 2024. Core earnings (excluding one-time charges) of $2.06 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.94 and were up from $1.74 reported a year ago. The year-over-year growth was driven by an increase in sales. Revenues of $12.8 billion climbed 9% from the year-ago figure. On a constant currency basis, sales increased 10%, driven by the momentum in Entresto, Kesimpta, Kisqali, Cosentyx, Pluvicto and Leq ...

For the quarter ended September 2024, Novartis (NVS) reported revenue of $12.82 billion, up 8.8% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $2.06, compared to $1.74 in the year-ago quarter.The reported revenue represents a surprise of +1.63% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $12.62 billion. With the consensus EPS estimate being $1.94, the EPS surprise was +6.19%.While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wall Street expe ...

Ad hoc announcement pursuant to Art. 53 LR Q3 net sales grew +10% (cc1, +9% USD) with core operating income up +20% (cc, +17% USD) Sales growth driven by continued strong performance from Entresto (+26% cc), Cosentyx (+28% cc), Kisqali (+43% cc), Kesimpta (+28% cc), Pluvicto (+50% cc) and Leqvio (+119% cc)Core operating income margin 40.1%, +340 basis points (cc), mainly driven by higher net sales Q3 operating income grew +123% (cc, +106% USD); net income up +121% (cc, +111% USD)Q3 core EPS grew +20% (cc, ...

This article is published by Terry Chrisomalis, who runs the Biotech Analysis Central pharmaceutical service on Seeking Alpha Marketplace. If you like what you read here and would like to subscribe to, I'm currently offering a two-week free trial period for subscribers to take advantage of. My service offers a deep-dive analysis of many pharmaceutical companies. The Biotech Analysis Central SA marketplace is $49 per month, but for those who sign up for the yearly plan will be able to take advantage of a 33. ...

Novartis Renal Portfolio Investor Event Virtual, October 28, 2024 ს NOVARTIS Reimagining Medicine Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements can generally be identified by words such as "potential," "can," "will," "plan," "may," "could," "would," "expect," "anticipate," "seek," "look forward," "believe," "committed," "investigational," "pipeline," "launch," or similar te ...

Group 1 - The conference call is focused on Novartis AG's renal portfolio, highlighting its strategic importance and ongoing developments in this area [2][4] - Participants in the call include key executives from Novartis, such as the Head of Investor Relations and the President of Global Drug Development [1][2] - The call is being recorded and will be available for later access on the company's website, indicating a commitment to transparency and investor communication [2] Group 2 - The presentation will include forward-looking statements that may involve risks and uncertainties, which could lead to actual results differing from expectations [3] - The company emphasizes the importance of reviewing its Form 20-F and recent quarterly results for a comprehensive understanding of potential risks [3]

Investors interested in stocks from the Large Cap Pharmaceuticals sector have probably already heard of Novartis (NVS) and Eli Lilly (LLY) . But which of these two stocks is more attractive to value investors? We'll need to take a closer look to find out.The best way to find great value stocks is to pair a strong Zacks Rank with an impressive grade in the Value category of our Style Scores system. The Zacks Rank favors stocks with strong earnings estimate revision trends, and our Style Scores highlight comp ...

I publish my best ideas and top coverage on the Growth Stock Forum . If you're interested in finding great growth stocks, with a focus on biotech, consider signing up. We focus on attractive risk/reward situations and track each of our portfolio and watchlist stocks closely. To receive e-mail notifications for my public articles and blogs, please click the follow button . And to go deeper, sign up for a free trial to Growth Stock Forum.Shares of Novartis (NYSE: NVS ) hit new all-time highs this summer and h ...