Group 1 - On Holding AG (NYSE: ONON) is set to report its second quarter results on August 12th, with the stock having increased approximately 150% since its low in 2022 [1] - TQP Research focuses on a value-oriented investment approach, identifying businesses that align with long-term success criteria established by notable investors like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger [1] - The investment topics covered by TQP Research include market analysis, macroeconomic trends, large-cap blue chip companies, and undervalued micro-cap and small-cap stocks [1] Group 2 - TQP Research actively engages with the community and encourages questions or ideas from members [1] - The article does not contain any stock or derivative positions in the companies mentioned, nor does it plan to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours [1] - The article expresses the author's opinions and is not compensated for it, aside from Seeking Alpha [1]

Company Overview - On Holding (ONON) closed at $45.16, reflecting a -3.52% change from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.08% [1] - Prior to the latest trading session, shares had decreased by 13.51%, contrasting with the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 1.16% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.21% [1] Upcoming Earnings - The earnings report for On Holding is anticipated on August 12, 2025, with an expected EPS of $0.24, indicating a 50% increase from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is projected to be $845.21 million, representing a 34.66% rise compared to the equivalent quarter last year [2] Full-Year Estimates - Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast earnings of $1.12 per share and revenue of $3.51 billion for the full year, reflecting year-over-year changes of +1.82% and +33.23%, respectively [3] - Recent changes in analyst estimates are crucial as they often indicate the latest business trends and analysts' outlook on the company's health and profitability [3] Valuation Metrics - On Holding has a Forward P/E ratio of 41.98, which is a premium compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 17.28 [6] - The company also has a PEG ratio of 2.04, higher than the Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry average PEG ratio of 1.87 [7] Industry Context - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector and currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 193, placing it in the bottom 22% of over 250 industries [8] - The Zacks Industry Rank evaluates the strength of industry groups based on the average Zacks Rank of individual stocks, with top-rated industries outperforming the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the textile, apparel, and luxury goods industry [11]. Core Insights - Revenue performance in Q1 2025 shows divergence among brands, with On (+40%) and Adidas (+13%) performing well, while Nike (-7%) and Under Armour (-11%) face revenue declines due to weak demand and inventory adjustments [6][20]. - The cautious revenue guidance from key companies indicates a continuation of this divergent performance in upcoming quarters, with some brands canceling their full-year guidance [7][25]. - The industry is entering a replenishment phase, but weak end-consumer demand necessitates close monitoring of recovery trends [9][34]. Revenue Performance - In Q1 2025, On and Adidas exhibited strong revenue growth, while Nike and UA struggled with declines [6][18]. - The overall revenue growth rates varied significantly across regions, with North America and Greater China showing relative weakness [20][22]. Inventory Dynamics - The apparel industry has returned to a healthy inventory level but is now entering a replenishment phase, with some brands beginning to accumulate stock [8][9]. - Retailers' inventory-to-sales ratios are normal, but certain brands are still in a destocking phase, particularly Nike and VF [8][9]. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the pace of consumer demand recovery, especially as the industry faces challenges from weak demand and inflationary pressures [9][34]. - Nike's gradual operational improvement may alleviate some negative pressures on the industry, suggesting potential for a rebound in the manufacturing sector [9][34].

Core Viewpoint - On Holding (ONON) is expected to report a year-over-year increase in earnings and revenues for the quarter ended June 2025, with a consensus outlook indicating potential stock price movements based on actual results compared to estimates [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The consensus estimate for On Holding's quarterly earnings is $0.24 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +50% [3]. - Expected revenues for the quarter are $845.21 million, which represents a 34.7% increase from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised 3.01% lower, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for On Holding is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of +8.51%, suggesting recent bullish sentiment among analysts [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive Earnings ESP reading is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 [10]. - However, On Holding currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4, which complicates the prediction of an earnings beat despite the positive Earnings ESP [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, On Holding was expected to post earnings of $0.24 per share but delivered $0.23, resulting in a surprise of -4.17% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once [14]. Conclusion - While On Holding is not positioned as a compelling earnings-beat candidate, investors should consider other factors influencing stock performance ahead of the earnings release [17].

Core Insights - The market is currently near all-time highs, making it crucial for investors to analyze fundamental data, particularly business and consumer data, to understand sector performance [1] Consumer Sector - Consumer confidence has unexpectedly risen, creating potential opportunities in the retail sector, with companies like Nike Inc., On Holding, and Ross Stores likely to benefit [2] - Nike's stock has increased by 40% over the past quarter, indicating strong consumer sentiment and market confidence [5] - On Holding is positioned as a growth opportunity, with analysts projecting a 70% increase in earnings per share (EPS) by Q4 2025 [10] - Ross Stores is seen as a value play, attracting institutional investment due to its strong business model in a tight economic environment [12][13] Company-Specific Insights - **Nike Inc.**: - Current stock price is $76.74 with a 12-month forecast of $78.22, indicating a 1.93% upside potential [4] - Analysts have upgraded Nike's stock rating to Overweight, with a new price target of $93, suggesting a potential upside of 20% [7] - **On Holding**: - Current stock price is $50.69 with a 12-month forecast of $64.00, indicating a 26.26% upside potential [9] - The stock is expected to see significant EPS growth, with a P/E ratio of 74x, well above the retail sector average [10] - **Ross Stores**: - Current stock price is $138.48 with a 12-month forecast of $159.06, indicating a 14.86% upside potential [12] - The company has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 8.4x, reflecting strong market confidence in its financial stability [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the implementation of consumption-boosting initiatives in China, focusing on the establishment of flagship stores and the introduction of international and local brands to stimulate economic growth [1][2][3] - The "first store economy" is highlighted as a new consumption model that integrates urban renewal and consumption upgrades, with significant contributions to local economies [3][5] - Beijing has seen a surge in the opening of first stores, with 400 new stores established in the first five months of the year, and a total of 2,372 first stores expected by the end of 2024 [3][2] Group 2 - Shanghai is attracting international sports brands to set up their first stores, enhancing consumer experience through innovative service offerings like professional fitness assessments [5][6] - The city has implemented supportive policies to streamline the process for first stores, including financial incentives for high-level stores, resulting in 173 new stores in the first quarter of 2025 [6][7] - Chongqing is focusing on linking first stores with the night economy, targeting young consumers and introducing over 140 new stores by mid-2025 [7][8] Group 3 - The articles discuss the importance of creating new consumption scenarios and fostering a complete ecosystem for brand development, emphasizing the need for policies that support long-term operations of first stores [8] - The integration of diverse brands and innovative retail concepts is seen as a way to attract consumers and enhance the vibrancy of commercial districts [2][4] - The overall trend indicates a growing competition among cities to attract first stores, which is viewed as a vital component of economic revitalization [1][3]

Company Performance - On Holding (ONON) ended the recent trading session at $50.76, showing a +1.62% change from the previous day's closing price, outperforming the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.4% [1] - Shares of On Holding had lost 3.18% in the past month, while the Retail-Wholesale sector gained 4.05% and the S&P 500 gained 4.61% during the same period [1] Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report for On Holding is anticipated to show an EPS of $0.24, representing a 50% increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year [2] - Revenue is expected to be $843.95 million, indicating a 34.46% increase compared to the year-ago quarter [2] Full Year Projections - For the full year, earnings are projected at $1.12 per share and revenue at $3.5 billion, reflecting changes of +1.82% and +32.75% respectively from the previous year [3] - Recent analyst estimate revisions suggest confidence in On Holding's business performance and profit potential [3] Valuation Metrics - On Holding is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 44.8, which is a premium compared to its industry's Forward P/E of 17.54 [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 2.18, while the average PEG ratio for the Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry is 1.97 [6] Industry Context - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector and holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 212, placing it in the bottom 15% of all industries [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Core Viewpoint - On Holding (ONON) is experiencing volatility, currently trading at $49.94, down 3.2% in the afternoon, with an 8.5% year-to-date deficit, but historical patterns suggest potential for recovery [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Since mid-June, ONON has faced resistance at $55, limiting breakout attempts and contributing to its year-to-date underperformance [1] - Historical data indicates that after similar market conditions, ONON has increased in value 75% of the time, averaging a 10.6% gain one month later [2] Group 2: Technical Indicators - ONON is currently within one standard deviation of the 80-day moving average, having spent 80% of the past two months above this average [2] - The stock's recent trading behavior suggests a potential upward movement if the historical trend continues [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Options traders exhibit extreme bearish sentiment, with a put/call open interest ratio of 1.66, placing it in the 99th percentile of the past year [4] - A reversal of this bearish sentiment could provide additional support for ONON's stock price [4]

Core Viewpoint - On Holding (ONON) shares have shown a slight increase of 0.3% over the past four weeks, closing at $51.64, with a potential upside indicated by Wall Street analysts' price targets suggesting a mean estimate of $64.64, representing a 25.2% upside [1][11]. Price Targets and Analyst Estimates - The mean estimate consists of 22 short-term price targets with a standard deviation of $6.45, indicating variability among analysts; the lowest estimate is $50.00 (3.2% decline), while the highest is $75.00 (45.2% increase) [2][9]. - A low standard deviation among price targets suggests a strong agreement among analysts regarding the stock's price movement direction, which can serve as a starting point for further research [9][10]. Earnings Estimates and Analyst Sentiment - Analysts have shown increasing optimism about ONON's earnings prospects, as evidenced by a strong consensus in revising EPS estimates higher, which correlates with potential stock price increases [11][12]. - Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has risen by 1.6%, with two estimates moving higher and one lower [12]. - ONON holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate factors, indicating a strong potential upside [13]. Conclusion on Price Movement - While the consensus price target may not be a reliable predictor of the extent of ONON's gains, the implied direction of price movement appears to be a useful guide for investors [14].

Company Performance - On Holding (ONON) closed at $50.36, down 5.36% from the previous trading session, underperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.06% [1] - Over the past month, shares of On Holding gained 0.26%, lagging behind the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 5.04% and the S&P 500's gain of 5.88% [1] Upcoming Earnings - On Holding is projected to report earnings of $0.24 per share, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 50% [2] - Revenue is estimated at $838.51 million, up 33.59% from the prior-year quarter [2] Full Year Estimates - Analysts expect earnings of $1.13 per share and revenue of $3.48 billion for the full year, marking changes of +2.73% and +32% respectively from last year [3] Analyst Forecasts - Recent revisions to analyst forecasts for On Holding are important as they indicate shifting business dynamics and a favorable outlook on business health and profitability [4] Zacks Rank and Valuation - On Holding currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), with the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate moving 1.56% higher over the past month [6] - The company is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 47.19, which is a premium compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 17.74 [6] PEG Ratio - On Holding has a PEG ratio of 2.29, compared to the average PEG ratio of 2.04 for Retail - Apparel and Shoes stocks [7] Industry Context - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector and currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 194, placing it in the bottom 22% of all industries [8]