Oracle added over $60 billion in RPO this quarter alone.In today's video, I discuss recent updates affecting Oracle (ORCL 10.83%) and other AI stocks. To learn more, check out the short video, consider subscribing, and click the special offer link below.*Stock prices used were the market prices of Dec. 11, 2025. The video was published on Dec. 11, 2025. ...

Core Viewpoint - Oracle's stock experienced a significant decline of 13 percent, raising concerns about the company's heavy investments in AI infrastructure and their potential returns, amidst a broader pullback in the tech sector [1]. Financial Performance - Oracle's updated forecasts did not meet Wall Street expectations, highlighting the inconsistent financial impact of emerging AI technologies [2]. - The company has incurred approximately 10 billion dollars in cash burn in the first half of its fiscal year due to AI-related investments [5]. - Oracle's capital spending for fiscal 2026 is projected to exceed previous estimates by 15 billion dollars, alongside missed estimates for future cloud commitments and a revenue outlook that fell short of expectations [7]. Market Reaction - The decline in Oracle's stock triggered a selloff in other AI-related companies, with stocks like Nvidia, AMD, Micron, Broadcom, and Arm Holdings dropping between 3.1 and 4.2 percent [6]. - Oracle bonds faced heavy selling, with credit default swaps climbing nearly 12 basis points, indicating increased default risk concerns due to the company's substantial debt of close to 100 billion dollars [3]. Investment Strategy - Oracle's aggressive investment strategy is reflective of broader industry trends, with other companies like Meta and Amazon also engaging in significant bond issuance to fund long-term innovation [4]. - Analysts suggest that the elevated investment levels are necessary to meet current AI demand trends, with Oracle's forward price-to-earnings multiple at 29.56, slightly higher than Microsoft and in line with Amazon [8].

Core Viewpoint - U.S. artificial intelligence stocks are experiencing a decline, marking their third consecutive day of losses [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Oracle's share price decreased by 1.3% in premarket trading, following a significant drop of approximately 11% on Thursday after revenue earnings fell short of analyst expectations [1] - Nvidia and Micron also saw declines of 0.9% in premarket trading, while CoreWeave's shares were down by 1.4% at 4:30 a.m. ET [1]

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本周以来，美联储降息及其对美国经济的积极展望提振了市场情绪，推动全球股市攀升高位。然而，甲骨文与博通最新财报表现不及预期，再度 引发市场对人工智能领域估值过热的担忧，导致科技股板块普遍承压。 博尔文财富管理集团总裁Gina Bolvin表示： 美股市场正经历显著的风格轮动。隔夜道琼斯工业指数与标普500指数创下历史新高后，美股指期货走势分化，以科技股为主的纳斯达克100期货 表现疲软。 12月12日，欧股，亚股普遍上行。美元、美债整体持稳，印度卢比汇率跌至历史新低。商品表现强劲，黄金与原油上涨，白银高位震荡，铜价再 创历史新高。加密货币分化，比特币走低，以太坊小幅上涨。 核心市场走势如下： 美股指期货涨跌互现，标普500期货基本持平，但以科技股为主的纳斯达克100期货跌超0.1%。两家科技巨头的财报表现再度引发市场对科技板块 高估值以及人工智能基础设施领域巨额投入可持续性的谨慎情绪。 据华尔街见闻，尽管博通公布第四财季营收与利润双双刷新历史纪录，但其人工智能相关订单积压规模不及市场预期，且公司预警称因AI产品销 售结构变化，整体利润率可能面临收窄压力。 此前，甲骨文最新财报中疲软的云业务收入与激进的资本开支计 ...

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Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Implications - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third rate cut since September, but the accompanying economic projections and Powell's comments conveyed a hawkish tone regarding future rate paths [1] - The updated dot plot indicates that the median rate expectation for the end of 2026 remains at 3.25%-3.5%, suggesting limited room for further rate cuts in the coming year [1] - Higher terminal rates imply that discount rates will not decline as quickly as previously expected, which could create a valuation ceiling for high-growth tech stocks [3] Group 2: Nasdaq 100 Index and Liquidity Factors - The Fed's decision to end quantitative tightening (QT) and initiate a new plan to purchase $40 billion in Treasury Bills monthly is expected to inject significant liquidity into the market, which historically correlates positively with the Nasdaq 100 index [4][5] - This monthly liquidity increase translates to nearly $500 billion annually, providing a supportive environment for tech stocks by lowering short-term financing costs [5] - The Fed's dual approach of suppressing irrational valuation bubbles through rate guidance while injecting liquidity helps create a more stable trading environment for tech stocks [5] Group 3: Oracle's Financial Performance and AI Investment Cycle - Oracle's recent earnings report revealed a stark contrast between a 438% year-over-year increase in remaining performance obligations (RPO) and quarterly revenue of $16.06 billion, which fell short of market expectations [10] - This discrepancy highlights the physical bottlenecks in AI infrastructure, indicating that while demand is strong, supply constraints may hinder revenue realization [10] - Oracle's capital expenditures surged to $20.5 billion over the past six months, leading to negative free cash flow, raising concerns about the sustainability of its growth model in a higher interest rate environment [11] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The Nasdaq 100 index's valuation is currently based on expectations of flawless AI execution, but Oracle's case illustrates the uncertainties in execution and the challenges posed by high capital expenditures [12] - The transition to a higher interest rate environment necessitates a focus on cash flow generation, shifting investor preferences from PEG ratios to free cash flow yield as a key valuation metric [11][12] - The market is expected to experience a divergence, favoring companies that demonstrate strong capital discipline and cash flow conversion capabilities in a high-rate environment [12]

Market Sentiment - The CNN Money Fear and Greed index improved to a reading of 46.3, moving into the "Neutral" zone from a previous reading of 40.0, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1][6] - U.S. stocks mostly closed higher, with the Dow Jones index gaining around 646 points to 48,704.01, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.21% to 6,901.00, and the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.25% to 23,593.86 [4] Sector Performance - Most sectors on the S&P 500 ended positively, with industrials, materials, and financials showing the largest gains, while communication services and information technology sectors closed lower [4] Company Earnings - Oracle Corp. shares fell approximately 11% following disappointing earnings and guidance, while Nvidia Corp. decreased by 1.6%, Broadcom Inc. also dropped by 1.6%, and Intel Corp. lost 3.1% [2] Economic Data - U.S. initial jobless claims rose by 44,000 to 236,000 for the week ending Dec. 6, exceeding market expectations of 220,000 [3] - The U.S. trade deficit for September was reported at $52.8 billion, an improvement from $59.3 billion in the previous month and better than market estimates of $63.3 billion [3] - U.S. wholesale inventories increased by 0.5% to approximately $911.5 billion in September, following a revised 0.1% gain in August [3] Upcoming Earnings - Investors are anticipating earnings results from Johnson Outdoors Inc. and Rent the Runway Inc. [5]

Market Sentiment - The CNN Money Fear and Greed index improved to a reading of 46.3, moving into the "Neutral" zone from a prior reading of 40.0, indicating a shift in market sentiment [6] - U.S. stocks mostly closed higher, with the Dow Jones gaining over 600 points as investors shifted from expensive tech stocks to industrials, financials, and healthcare [1][4] Company Performance - Oracle Corp. shares fell approximately 11% following disappointing earnings and guidance, while Nvidia Corp. and Broadcom Inc. both declined by 1.6%, and Intel Corp. dropped by 3.1% [2] - Investors are anticipating earnings results from Johnson Outdoors Inc. and Rent the Runway Inc. [5] Economic Data - U.S. initial jobless claims increased by 44,000 to 236,000, exceeding market expectations of 220,000 [3] - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $52.8 billion in September from $59.3 billion in August, better than the market estimate of $63.3 billion [3] - U.S. wholesale inventories rose by 0.5% to approximately $911.5 billion in September, following a revised 0.1% gain in August [3] Sector Performance - Most sectors in the S&P 500 closed positively, with industrials, materials, and financials showing the largest gains, while communication services and information technology sectors closed lower [4] - The Dow Jones closed at 48,704.01, up around 646 points, while the S&P 500 gained 0.21% to 6,901.00, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.25% to 23,593.86 [4]

Market Analysis by covering: Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Oracle Corporation, Broadcom Inc. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com ...