[Table_Info1] 主题报告 主题研究 [TABLE_TITLE] 东证指数新高，国债收益率高企 日股市场周报 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 14 日 [分析师 Table_Author1] 主题研究团队 侯苏寒 suhan.hou@nomuraoi-sec.com 登记编号：S1720520020001 柯钰琪 研究助理 yuqi.ke@nomuraoi-sec.com | 图表 | | 1：全球主要股指与日股市场主要股指表现回顾 3 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 图表 | 2：日股 ETF | 表现 3 | | | 图表 | 3：东证指数及日经 225 | | 指数走势 4 | | 图表 | 4：NT | 倍率走势 4 | | | 图表 | 5：日经 225 指数走势和日股大事纪 | | 4 | | 图表 | 6：东证及 17 个子行业最近一周涨跌幅 | | 5 | | 图表 | 7：东证及 17 个子行业 2025 | | 年度涨跌幅 5 | | 图表 | 8：东证 17 | 行业权重及主要成分股 6 | | | 图表 | | 9：汽车与运输设备块权重股 ...

Group 1 - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 outlined China's economic direction for 2026, emphasizing a long-term positive trend and the need for confidence in facing challenges. Key tasks include focusing on domestic demand, innovation, and reform [2][7] - Beijing Weilan New Energy Technology Co., known as China's "first solid-state battery stock," has initiated its IPO process on the A-share Growth Enterprise Market, aiming for large-scale production of solid-state batteries by 2027 [2][7] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones reaching a historical high while the Nasdaq fell nearly 400 points due to concerns over tech stock valuations, particularly after Oracle's disappointing earnings report [2][7] Group 2 - Shandong Province has introduced a housing "old-for-new" policy to stimulate housing consumption, which includes various models for upgrading homes and enhancing financial support [3][8] - The price of Moutai has dropped below the psychological threshold of 1499 yuan, indicating a potential industry adjustment as demand weakens and the company faces challenges in returning to consumer markets [3][9] - Mexico's new law imposing tariffs of up to 50% on goods from countries without free trade agreements, including China, could impact Chinese industries such as automotive and textiles, prompting companies to adapt their supply chains [3][9] Group 3 - Many companies, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, have secured orders extending to 2028, indicating strong business growth prospects due to industry recovery and capacity release [4][10] - Recent adjustments to six major indices, including the CSI 300, will lead to corresponding changes in large-scale index funds, enhancing the representation of technology sectors and benefiting investors in advanced manufacturing [4][10] - SoftBank's investment in OpenAI has faced challenges, leading to a significant drop in its stock price and market capitalization, as concerns about profitability and competition from Google arise [5][10] - The Chinese film market is projected to exceed 50 billion yuan in 2025, driven by successful domestic productions and an expanding "film +" ecosystem that enhances overall consumption [5][10]

格隆汇12月12日丨孙正义在近几个月减少了向贷款机构质押的软银集团股份，规模达21亿美元。随着对 人工智能领域的押注推动其波动巨大的科技财富再度回升，他得以降低抵押品规模。根据本月早些时候 提交的文件，孙正义将质押股份减少了1940万股至约1.542亿股。机构数据显示，孙正义在软银所持股 份目前约有31%质押给银行，低于2020年3月近39%的水平。孙正义353亿美元的财富主要来源于他所持 有的软银集团超过三分之一的股份。 ...

Market Overview - Most U.S. stocks are rising, but Oracle's significant drop is impacting Wall Street as investors question the return on its AI technology investments [1][2] - The S&P 500 fell 0.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 233 points (0.5%) and the Nasdaq composite decreased by 0.7% [1] Oracle's Performance - Oracle's stock dropped 14.5% despite reporting better-than-expected profits for the latest quarter, with a revenue growth of 14% that fell short of expectations [2][3] - Analysts expressed surprise at the extent of Oracle's planned AI investments for the fiscal year, raising concerns about the company's ability to finance these expenditures [3] AI Industry Impact - Doubts regarding Oracle's AI spending are affecting the broader AI industry, which has seen substantial investment but is experiencing volatility [4] - Nvidia, a key player in the AI sector, saw its stock fall by 2.8%, contributing to the S&P 500's decline [4] Treasury Yields and Economic Indicators - Lower Treasury yields, which fell to 4.10% from 4.13%, are encouraging higher stock prices as they reduce interest payments on government bonds [5][6] - A report indicating a higher-than-expected increase in unemployment benefit applications suggests potential rising layoffs, impacting market sentiment [6] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts, including a third cut this year, are viewed positively by Wall Street as they can stimulate economic growth [7] Other Company Performances - The Walt Disney Co. gained 2.1% following a partnership with OpenAI to utilize its characters for social video generation, alongside a $1 billion investment in OpenAI [8] - Oxford Industries' stock fell 15.1% due to weaker-than-expected holiday shopping forecasts, while Vera Bradley's stock dropped 26% after reporting larger-than-expected losses [9] International Market Trends - European indexes saw gains, while Japan's Nikkei 225 index fell by 0.9%, influenced by a significant drop in SoftBank Group Corp., a major AI investor [10]

这比他对雅虎的投资的回报要高得多，其对雅虎的投资回报峰值超过300倍，让他短暂成为世界首富，但后来雅虎衰落，2016年出售时仅有10倍回报。 人一旦尝过大生意，就很难再甘愿做"小生意"了。 2016年6月，软银首次减持近百亿美元价值的阿里股份，凭着这本金，软银得以筹集巨额资金，约320亿美元的现金要约收购ARM。其后更是与与中东主 权基金共同发起了史上规模最大的私募股权投资基金"愿景基金"（Vision Fund），一期规模计划就达1000亿美元。 愿景基金一出手，就是奔着投中下一个马云下一个阿里而去的。2018 年年初，愿景基金斥资77 亿美元获得了Uber 16.3% 的股份。2018年至2019年期间， 愿景基金更是向WeWork投资约110亿美元，使其估值一度达到470亿美元。 孙正义一生都在寻找下一个马云。 对Uber的投资，让愿景基金实现了几十亿美元的账面盈利，但对WeWork的投资却血本无归。无论是Uber的卡兰尼克，还是WeWork的亚当·诺依曼，都不 是孙正义心心念念的下一个马云。 因为，他在马云身上赚的太多了。 甚至可以说，作别马云后的好几年，孙正义就仿佛失去了财神的庇佑，2023年亏损超 ...

SoftBank Group shares fell sharply on Thursday after Oracle's weaker-than-expected quarterly results renewed worries about how long it will take for massive investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure to translate into profits. The stock closed down nearly 7.7% in Tokyo, having dropped as much as 8.4% intraday, dragging the broader market lower. Oracle said its revenue and operating income for the latest quarter came in slightly below analysts' expectations, while also raising its spending forecas ...

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 软银集团股价跌幅一度达 8.4%，创11月25日以来最大跌幅。亚洲分析师解读美联储决议："没那么鹰 派"的降息，对亚洲市场很完美。 ...

Core Insights - Skild AI is in talks for a new funding round exceeding $1 billion, which could nearly double its valuation to $14 billion from $4.7 billion during its last funding round in June 2023 [1][2] - The U.S. government, under the Trump administration, is actively promoting the robotics industry, with plans for an executive order on robotics next year [2][7] Group 1: Investment and Valuation - SoftBank and NVIDIA are negotiating to invest in Skild AI, which has shown impressive technology in pilot projects [2][3] - Skild AI raised $500 million in its B round of funding, led by SoftBank, with participation from NVIDIA and others, achieving a valuation of $4.7 billion [2][3] - The robotics investment landscape is rapidly growing, with projections indicating that funding in the sector could reach $2.3 billion by 2025, doubling from the previous year [3] Group 2: Company Overview - Skild AI, founded in 2023 by former Meta AI researchers, focuses on developing AI models for various types of robots rather than manufacturing hardware [4][5] - The company released its first general AI model in July 2023, capable of adapting to a wide range of tasks from logistics to household chores [5] - Skild AI collaborates with NVIDIA to develop a foundational model called Skild Brain, which can be trained with minimal additional input to acquire new skills [5] Group 3: Government Initiatives and Industry Trends - The U.S. Department of Commerce is committed to advancing robotics and advanced manufacturing, emphasizing their importance in bringing critical production back to the U.S. [7] - There is a growing interest in robotics within the U.S. Congress, with proposals for establishing a national robotics committee [7] - The global humanoid robot market is projected to reach $38 billion by 2035, highlighting the increasing demand for robotic solutions [3]

【环球时报驻日本特约记者 邵南 环球时报特约记者 陈欣】 编者的话： 日本政府正在推出雄心勃勃的人工智能（AI）规划。据日本时事通讯社7日 报道，日本政府计划将公众AI使用率提高到80%。日本政府此前将AI定位为国家经济增长的核心引擎。不过，《日经亚洲评论》报道称，"数据中 心建设瓶颈威胁着日本的人工智能雄心"。多家日媒及相关研究机构的报告显示，日本的数据中心建设面临建设成本上升、电网布局滞后、建筑工 艺过时等多重压力。 日本时事通讯社报道称，日本政府制定了AI发展和利用基本规划草案，目标是先将公众AI利用率提高到50%，最终提高到80%。该草案强调，有 必要提高AI的普及程度，以推动日本自主AI技术的发展。草案还提出一项政策目标，即吸引约1万亿日元（100日元约合4.5元人民币）的民间投 资，以加强研发活动。 此外，草案要求日本中央政府所有部门率先使用AI，并最终推广至全体政府职员。 《日本时报》提到，1万亿日元私营部门投资的目标包括：旨在保障人力资源的项目、支持AI产业向新兴市场拓展的项目，以及改善研发基础设 施的项目。日本首相高市早苗在10月的政策演讲中宣称，要让日本成为"世界上最容易开发和利用AI的国 ...

【环球网科技综合报道】12月9日消息，据cna援引路透社报道称，软银集团与英伟达正就一项对机器人基础模型公司 Skild AI 的重大投资展开深入谈判。此 轮融资规模预计超过10亿美元，若顺利完成，将使 Skild AI 的估值达到约140亿美元，较其今年早些时候B轮融资时的47亿美元增长近两倍。 资料显示，Skild AI 成立于2023年，由前 MetaAI研究人员创立，专注于开发通用人工智能软件系统，旨在作为各类机器人的"大脑"。该公司不涉足硬件制 造，而是通过训练基于海量数据的AI模型，赋予不同形态的机器人类似人类的感知、推理与决策能力，以解决当前通用机器人在工厂、仓储及家庭环境中 部署受限的核心瓶颈。 根据 PitchBook 数据，Skild 在2024年完成的B轮融资中已获得包括英伟达、LG风险投资部门和三星在内的战略投资者支持。更早的A轮融资于2023年完成， 筹集3亿美元，估值达15亿美元，投资方涵盖亚马逊创始人杰夫·贝佐斯、软银集团及科斯拉风险投资公司等。 消息人士透露，软银在内部试点项目中对 Skild 的技术表现印象深刻，认为其平台具备跨场景适应能力，可广泛应用于物流、制造业乃至家庭服 ...