2025 年 6 月 17 日 医药: 超配 证券研究报告 / 公司更新报告 石药 (1093 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$10.59) | 买入 | | --- | | 目标价: HK$10.59 | 当前股价: HK$8.84 | | --- | --- | | 股价上行/下行空间 | +20% | | 52 周最高/最低价 (HK$) | 9.48/4.27 | | 市值 (US$mn) | 13,462 | | 当前发行数量(百万股) | 11,954 | | 三个月平均日交易額 | 164 | | (US$mn) | | | 流通盘占比 (%) | 41 | | 主要股东 (%) | | | 鼎大集团有限公司 | 10 | | 联诚控股有限公司 | 8 | | 共成国际 | 6 | | 按 2025 年 6 月 13 日收市数据 | | | 资料来源: FactSet | | 主要调整 | | 现值 | 原值 | 变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 评级 | 买入 | 买入 | N/A | | 目标价 (HK$) | 10.59 | 8.88 | 19% | | 2 ...

智通财经APP获悉，6月10日港股市场，北水成交净买入75.9亿港元，其中港股通(沪)成交净买入47.95亿 港元，港股通(深)成交净买入27.96亿港元。 石药集团(01093)获净买入7.61亿港元。消息面上，交银国际此前指，憧憬公司今年有望达成三项大型海 外授权交易，每项或涉及超过50亿美元，加上恩必普加强推广、多美素获集中采购及公司渠道去库存影 响减少等，该行预料石药未来将确认更多BD收入。 北水净买入最多的个股是美团-W(03690)、石药集团(01093)、信达生物(01801)。北水净卖出最多的个股 是腾讯(00700)、小米集团-W(01810)、阿里巴巴-W(09988)。 | 股票名称 | 买入额 | 卖出额 | 买卖总额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 净流入 | | 美团-W | 17.86 乙 | 15.35 乙 | 33.21 乙 | | HK 03690 | | | +2.52 Z | | 小米集团-W | 13.01 乙 | 16.73亿 | 29.74 Z | | HK 01810 | | | -3.72 Z | | 腾讯控股 | 6. ...

以下文章来源于氨基观察 ，作者氨基君 氨基观察 . 生命科学新时代的商业智库和价值灯塔 作者 | 武月 来源 | 氨基观察 每笔交易的潜在首付款、里程碑付款以及商业化分成约为50亿美元。且其中之一已经处于后期阶 段，预计将于6月份完成。 如此重磅BD消息，石药集团的股价自然应声大涨，市值再次逼近千亿大关。 事实上，在其正式公告之前，市场上已经有相关消息流传。因为石药集团于29日中午交出一份不 及预期的一季报，营收、利润双下滑，而在财报电话会议上，公司管理层已经披露了上述BD消 息，这也使得其股价在业绩发布之后，逆势大涨12%。 尽管石药集团在公告中多次提示BD的不确定性，但市场更多是沉浸于巨大的金额层面。3项50亿 美元的交易，言下之意，潜在交易总额达150亿美元。即使首付款按照5%计算，也高达7.5亿美 元。 乐观者认为，这是石药再次秀出创新肌肉，石药集团不断增长的研发，并没有带来创新药的估值 溢价。随着新的重磅BD的达成，其业绩会有新的保障；谨慎者则认为，潜在大BD确实能驱动股 价大涨，但重磅BD属于重大商业机密，也是涉及股价的敏感信息，在BD落地前就提前公告，是 否有些突兀？ 至少，在全球医药产业中，预 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating to the company with a target price raised to HKD 7.40 from HKD 6.30 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company's total revenue for Q1 2025 decreased by 21.9% year-on-year to RMB 7.01 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 8.4% to RMB 1.48 billion. Excluding RMB 718 million in licensing fee income, product sales revenue was approximately 4.6% lower than expected, primarily due to a slowdown in the sales of established drugs [1][4]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in product sales revenue starting from Q2 2025, as the impact of centralized procurement for certain oncology drugs has already been reflected, and sales are expected to increase after the inclusion of new drugs in the medical insurance list by the end of 2024 [2][4]. - The company is expected to achieve multiple significant overseas licensing agreements, with Q1 licensing fee income of RMB 718 million primarily from agreements with BeiGene and AstraZeneca. These agreements involve upfront payments totaling USD 250 million (approximately RMB 1.8 billion) and potential milestone payments of up to USD 3.56 billion (approximately RMB 25.6 billion) [3][4]. Financial Summary - The company's projected total revenue for 2025 is RMB 29.89 billion, reflecting a 3.0% growth rate, while net profit is expected to be RMB 4.77 billion, a 10.2% increase. The earnings per share (EPS) is projected at RMB 0.41, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.4 [5][13]. - The financial data indicates a decline in established drug sales, with revenue from the core product Enbrel decreasing by 29.5% year-on-year, and oncology drug sales dropping by 65.7% due to centralized procurement impacts [1][5]. - The report includes a detailed financial forecast, showing total revenue growth rates of 1.7% in 2023, a decline of 7.8% in 2024, and subsequent growth rates of 3.0%, 12.8%, and 12.6% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][13].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market rebounded on June 3, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.5% to close at 23,512 and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1.1% to 5,189, indicating a significant recovery in market sentiment [1] - The trading volume reached HKD 203.7 billion, showing a notable increase compared to previous days, although the net inflow from the Stock Connect was only HKD 3.9 billion [1] - Major financial stocks, including CITIC Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Agricultural Bank of China, hit historical highs, reflecting continued investment in high-dividend defensive assets [1] Industry Dynamics - The automotive sector saw a rebound, with Xiaomi's automotive business losses decreasing and expectations for profitability in Q3 or Q4 of this year, driven by the upcoming launch of the YU7 model [3] - The healthcare sector also performed well, with the Hang Seng Healthcare Index rising by 2.5%. Notable gains were seen in companies reporting positive clinical data at the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) [3] - The renewable energy and utilities sectors experienced widespread gains, with Goldwind Technology rising by 13.3% due to share buyback plans and the establishment of an AI-related subsidiary [4] Company-Specific Insights - The report on CSPC Pharmaceutical Group indicated a 21.9% year-on-year decline in total revenue for Q1 2025, amounting to RMB 7.01 billion, primarily due to a slowdown in the sales of its core products [5] - The company expects a gradual recovery in product sales starting from Q2 2025, as the impact of centralized procurement has already been reflected in Q1 results [6] - CSPC has secured multiple overseas licensing agreements, with expected upfront payments totaling approximately RMB 1 billion and potential milestone payments exceeding RMB 25.6 billion, indicating strong future revenue prospects [7][8] Real Estate Sector Analysis - The report on the Chinese real estate market highlighted a 12.0% year-on-year decline in new home transaction volume across 30 major cities, with first-tier cities showing resilience [9] - First-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen reported increases in cumulative transaction volumes, with Shanghai up by 9.5% and Shenzhen by 45.8% year-on-year [10] - The land transaction volume in 100 major cities fell by 46.9% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [12]

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing significant pressure from centralized procurement and medical insurance cost control in Q1 2025, but is expected to see gradual improvement starting from Q2 2025, with projections of achieving three major BD licensing deals exceeding $5 billion each in 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Q1 2025 Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue decreased by 30% year-on-year, excluding BD income, with the prescription drug segment declining by 37% [1] - Key therapeutic areas experienced declines: CNS down 30% due to medical insurance cost control and a 13% price reduction from negotiations; oncology core products saw a 66% drop in sales due to centralized procurement and channel price adjustments [1] - The company recorded 720 million RMB in licensing fee income, primarily from collaborations with AstraZeneca and BeiGene [1] - Revenue from raw materials increased by 15% year-on-year, driven by demand in the VC market and rising product prices, while functional foods and other business revenues fell by 9% due to declining demand and prices for caffeine [1] - The net profit margin improved by 3.1 percentage points to 21.1% due to high-margin licensing income and cost control efforts [1] Group 2: Future Outlook and BD Transactions - The company anticipates gradual improvement in performance starting Q2 2025, driven by increased promotion of Enbip, stabilization from procurement and inventory adjustments, rapid market entry of new products, and additional BD income recognition [2] - Management expects to achieve three large overseas licensing deals in 2025, each exceeding $5 billion, including a comprehensive technology platform licensing deal [2] - The company is advancing a Phase III study for EGFR ADC in second-line EGFR+ NSCLC in China and has initiated studies for third-line EGFR classic mutation NSCLC overseas, with further discussions with the FDA planned for June [2] - Based on optimistic BD income and operating expense forecasts, the company has raised its revenue projections for 2025-2027 by 1.5-7.5% and net profit forecasts by 8-13% [2] - The DCF target price has been adjusted to 7.2 HKD, corresponding to a 14.7x P/E ratio and 1.1x PEG for 2025, indicating that the current stock price reflects the anticipated pressure on 2025 performance and future BD transactions, with limited upside potential [2]

太平洋证券医药组研究观点分享 文章转自2025年5月17日太平洋医药团队报告 ，分析师： 谭紫媚/ 张懿 投资要点 以下文章来源于谭谈药市 ，作者谭紫媚 张懿 谭谈药市 . 恩必普和明复乐促进神经系统领域稳健增长 公司一方面通过医院渠道加大患者教育，另一方面在零售药店大力推广恩必普胶囊剂型，提升卒中患者出院后持续用药的可及性，促进恩必普继续保持稳健增 长。 2024年2月，明复乐获批第二项新适应症，用于急性缺血性卒中患者的溶栓治疗（发病<4.5h）。通过学术推广和医院开发，有望快速增长贡献增量。 在102例EGFR突变非鳞NSCLC患者中，ORR为39.2%，DCR达93.1%； 其中单纯EGFR-TKI耐药的EGFR敏感突变非鳞NSCLC（n=19）：ORR高达63.2%，DCR为 94.7% ；而EGFR-TKI和含铂化疗双耐药的EGFR敏感突变非鳞NSCLC（n=78）：ORR为33.3%，DCR为92.3%。SYS6010在EGFR-TKI耐药NSCLC患者中展现的高 缓解率，验证其有望克服TKI耐药问题。 2024年8月26日，公司启动了SYS6010联合奥希替尼一线治疗EGFR突变型局部晚期或转移 ...

青侨阳光医药投资 - 投资思考 在过去几年里，一个印象深刻的教训，是不同时期、不同标的之间的强烈异质性。 这种异质性，既体现在同 一时期不同标的在基本面方面的剧烈分化，也体现在同一标的不同时期在股价主导逻辑上的强烈变迁。 这里的异质性，不管是基本面表现的分化和股价逻辑的变迁，放在特定时空下都有其自洽的合理性，因此 当 出现远超我们预期的事实时，所反映的未必是市场的非理性或世界的不正常，而更可能是我们的认知脱离了客 观真相，形成了局限偏颇。 跳出简单化的、平均化的、定式化的、教条化的思维模式，去重新审视客观事实 中所展现的混沌复杂和随机多变，或许能为日常投研带来新的视角，促进新的思考，形成新的认知。 1 横向视角下的分化： 在爆款思维里，寻找潜在的时代徽章 先看一下横截面上的分化。 下图是早年(2017年之前)获批上市的国产创新药，在2022年PDB样本医院的终端销售额，可以看到， 不同创新 药之间的营收差异很大 ：新活素成就了西藏药业，特比澳奠定了三生制药的基础，恩必普也为石药集团成功 打开了制剂业务的空间；但与此同时，曾经红极一时的今又生早已销声匿迹，优朋、可唯适、利卡汀、谊生泰 们苦苦挣扎在生存的边缘，就 ...