Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings announced a share buyback plan, indicating confidence in its stock value and commitment to returning capital to shareholders [1] Summary by Category Company Actions - Tencent will spend HKD 636 million to repurchase 1.04 million shares [1] - The buyback price range is set between HKD 609 and HKD 616 per share [1]

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 騰訊控股有限公司 呈交日期： 2025年12月3日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00700 | 說明 | | | | | | | | 多櫃檯證券代號 | 80700 | RMB 說明 | | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings has been actively repurchasing its shares, indicating a strategy to support its stock price amid market fluctuations. The company has conducted multiple buybacks over the past weeks, reflecting confidence in its long-term value despite recent stock price declines [1][2]. Buyback Details - On December 2, Tencent repurchased 1.028 million shares at prices ranging from 615.500 to 625.500 HKD, totaling 636 million HKD. The stock closed at 617.000 HKD, down 0.40% for the day, with a total trading volume of 7.09 billion HKD [1]. - Since November 18, Tencent has executed buybacks for 11 consecutive days, acquiring a total of 11.289 million shares for a cumulative amount of 6.993 billion HKD, during which the stock price has decreased by 3.06% [1][2]. - Year-to-date, Tencent has completed 111 buyback transactions, purchasing a total of 133 million shares for a total expenditure of 67.958 billion HKD [2]. Historical Buyback Data - The buyback activity includes various transactions with specific details such as the number of shares repurchased, highest and lowest prices, and total amounts spent. For instance, on December 1, 102.90 thousand shares were bought at a maximum price of 623.000 HKD, totaling approximately 635.93 million HKD [2][3]. - The buyback prices have varied, with the highest recorded price being 680.500 HKD on October 9, 2025, and the lowest at 386.400 HKD on January 16, 2025 [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings is expected to report mixed results for Q4, with revenue forecasts showing a slight decline to moderate growth, while net profit forecasts indicate a significant potential drop [1] Revenue Forecast - The predicted revenue for Q4 ranges from 168.88 billion to 198.20 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year change of -2.1% to 14.9% [1][2] - The average revenue forecast is approximately 193.31 billion RMB, indicating a 12.1% increase [2] Net Profit Forecast - The expected net profit for Q4 is between 30.63 billion and 67.16 billion RMB, with a year-on-year change of -40.3% to 30.8% [1][2] - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to be between 51.07 billion and 76.46 billion RMB, with a year-on-year change of -7.7% to 38.2% [1][2] Business Performance Insights - Tencent's third-quarter performance exceeded expectations, with revenue and gross profit both showing year-on-year growth [4] - The value-added services segment saw a 15% increase in domestic game revenue and a 43% increase in overseas game revenue, with gross margin rising by 4 percentage points to 61% [5] - The marketing business experienced a 21% revenue growth, driven by AI tools and increased user engagement [5] - Financial technology revenue grew by 10%, supported by rising demand for AI services [6] AI Investment Impact - Tencent's AI initiatives, particularly the "Hunyuan" model, ranked first globally in text-to-image models, enhancing AI capabilities [7] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from AI-driven improvements in advertising and user engagement, contributing to stable revenue growth in the coming years [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Buy" [7] Core Insights - The company's gaming business is expected to grow robustly driven by a new product cycle, while the video account advertising business remains highly prosperous, likely becoming a major source of revenue growth [1][2] - In Q3 2025, Tencent's online gaming revenue (excluding social) reached 636 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23%. Domestic market revenue was 428 billion yuan, up 15%, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 423 billion yuan, primarily due to the contribution from "Delta Operation" and continued revenue growth from existing games [1] - International market revenue was 208 billion yuan, a 43% year-on-year increase, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 181 billion yuan, driven by record highs in daily active users and revenue for "Clash Royale" and growth from "PUBG: MOBILE" [1] - The introduction of a 15% commission agreement between Apple and Tencent regarding WeChat mini-game payments is expected to open up payment opportunities in the long term, despite short-term challenges in commission avoidance methods [3] - The company's marketing services revenue in Q3 2025 was 362 billion yuan, a 20.8% year-on-year increase, driven by improvements in eCPM and expansion of advertising inventory [4] Financial Forecasts - Projected revenues for Tencent from 2025 to 2027 are 748.76 billion yuan, 835.25 billion yuan, and 921.90 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 13%, 12%, and 10% respectively [5] - Adjusted net profits for the same period are forecasted to be 266.16 billion yuan, 293.21 billion yuan, and 321.51 billion yuan, with growth rates of 20%, 10%, and 10% respectively [5] - The valuation method applied suggests a target price of 794.73 HKD per share for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 30% [5]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings is expected to report mixed results for Q4 2025, with revenue forecasts ranging from 168.88 to 198.20 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year change of -2.1% to 14.9%, while net profit is projected between 30.63 to 67.16 billion RMB, indicating a year-on-year change of -40.3% to 30.8% [1][5][6] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The consensus forecast for Q4 2025 revenue is between 1688.88 and 1982.05 billion RMB, with an average estimate of 1933.12 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.1% [3][8] - The expected net profit for Q4 2025 ranges from 306.31 to 671.56 billion RMB, with an average estimate of 546.61 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [3][8] - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to be between 510.65 and 764.57 billion RMB, with an average of 647.38 billion RMB, indicating a year-on-year growth of 17.0% [3][8] Business Segment Performance - Value-added services segment shows a robust performance with domestic game revenue increasing by 15% and international game revenue rising by 43%, alongside a gross margin improvement of 4 percentage points to 61% [5][10][11] - Marketing business revenue is expected to grow by 21%, driven by AI tools enhancing advertising efficiency and user engagement [12][14] - Financial technology business is projected to see a 10% revenue increase, supported by rising demand for AI services [13][14] - AI investments have positioned Tencent's mixed model as a leader in global generative image models, contributing to the enhancement of AI functionalities [14] Analyst Insights - Analysts from Huatai International Securities noted that Tencent's Q3 2025 revenue exceeded expectations, growing by 15% year-on-year to reach 192.9 billion RMB, with strong performance across both domestic and international markets [6][14] - Future growth in gaming revenue is anticipated to be around 10% year-on-year for FY26E, while advertising and financial technology sectors are expected to maintain stable growth despite potential slowdowns in certain areas due to internal GPU prioritization [14]

Group 1 - Tencent Holdings announced a share buyback plan, spending approximately HKD 636 million to repurchase 1.028 million shares on December 2, 2025 [1]

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 騰訊控股有限公司 呈交日期： 2025年12月2日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00700 | 說明 | | | | | | | | 多櫃檯證券代號 | 80700 | RMB 說明 | | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that while the ideal "Doubao" ecosystem from ByteDance appears rich, there are significant execution challenges ahead [1][4] Summary by Sections Product Features - The "Doubao" AI assistant is deeply integrated into smartphone operating systems and showcases capabilities such as interactive functions, multi-modal generation, app proxying, memory functions, and a professional mode for complex tasks [2][6] Market Challenges - The report highlights major obstacles in promoting the "Doubao" assistant, particularly the need for in-depth technical cooperation and commercial negotiations with various smartphone OEMs, which may redefine the smartphone value proposition and weaken OEMs' bargaining power [3][6] - Major smartphone OEMs like Apple, Huawei, and Xiaomi are more likely to develop their own AI assistants rather than collaborate with ByteDance, limiting the options for partnerships in the Chinese market [3][6] Investment Perspective - Despite concerns that the "Doubao" assistant may become a traffic entry point and weaken C-end applications, Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about Chinese applications in AI investment, citing the dominance of super apps like WeChat, Taobao, and Meituan, which prefer to develop their own AI assistants to maintain traffic [7]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley expresses skepticism about the feasibility of ByteDance's "Doubao" AI assistant smartphone ecosystem, emphasizing that while the concept appears rich, execution challenges are significant [1]. Group 1: Product Features - The "Doubao" AI assistant is deeply integrated into the smartphone operating system, showcasing capabilities such as interactive functions, multi-modal generation, app access, memory features, and a professional mode for complex tasks [2]. Group 2: Market Challenges - Morgan Stanley identifies major obstacles in promoting the "Doubao" assistant, particularly the need for in-depth technical collaboration and commercial negotiations with various smartphone OEMs, which may prefer developing their own AI assistants [3]. - The report highlights that leading smartphone OEMs like Apple, Huawei, and Xiaomi are likely to focus on their proprietary AI solutions rather than partnering with ByteDance, limiting the potential OEM options for collaboration [3]. Group 3: Investment Perspective - Despite concerns that the "Doubao" assistant could become a traffic entry point and weaken consumer-facing applications, Morgan Stanley maintains a positive outlook on Chinese applications, citing the dominance of super apps like WeChat, Taobao, and Meituan, which are likely to develop their own AI assistants to secure traffic [3].