智通财经APP获悉，美国银行将联合包裹(UPS.US)的评级从"中性"下调至"跑输大盘"，目标价下调至 83 美元;并将联邦快递(FDX.US)的评级从"买入"下调至"中性"，目标价下调至 240 美元，以反映航空货运 公司因小额包裹关税豁免取消的影响而面临运量和成本压力增大。 美银分析师Ken Hoexter强调，每天有近 400 万件包裹在美国的小额免税政策下流通，该政策针对来自 中国内地/香港的包裹已于 5 月 2 日结束，针对世界其他地区的则于 8 月 29 日结束。 Hoexter写道："国际优先及经济(出口)包裹占联邦快递收入的 17%，占联合包裹收入的 16%(不包括国际 市场的国内业务;即联邦快递平均每天 1700 万件包裹中的约 110 万件，联合包裹平均每天 2000 万件包 裹中的约 170 万件)。这合计 280 万件包裹并非全是小额免税包裹的，但却是每天 400 万件小额免税包 裹中的相当一部分。" 预计取消最低限额免税政策将导致 2025 年航空货运旺季表现平平，因为 2023 至 2024 年航空货运旺季 的紧张市场是由利用小额包裹关税豁免规避关税的中国电商企业带来的航空需求所推 ...

Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) and FedEx Corp. are facing challenges due to the end of U.S. de minimis exemptions, which is tightening trade flows, threatening parcel volumes, and increasing costs as the peak shipping season approaches [1] Company Summaries UPS - Bank of America Securities downgraded UPS to Underperform from Neutral, citing a soft peak backdrop for 2025 and reducing earnings estimates and price forecasts [2] - The price forecast for UPS was lowered to $83 from $91, with revised earnings estimates of $1.30 for Q3 2025, $6.50 for fiscal 2025, and $6.70 for fiscal 2026, reflecting reductions of 6%, 3%, and 4% respectively [3] - UPS has struggled to offset volume losses, particularly as it reduces Amazon-related shipments, which account for approximately 11% of revenue [4] - U.S.-China parcel flows, a significant revenue source for UPS, fell nearly 35% year over year in May and June due to the loss of de minimis access [4] - Since the start of 2025, EPS estimates for UPS have decreased by 26% to 33% [7] FedEx - FedEx was downgraded to Neutral from Buy, with a dimming outlook despite ongoing cost-cutting measures and plans to spin off its Freight division [2] - The price forecast for FedEx was reduced to $240 from $245, with earnings estimates lowered by 7% for Q1 fiscal 2026, 6% for fiscal 2026, and 7% for fiscal 2027, now at $3.56, $17.75, and $20.45 respectively [5] - The margin expectation for FedEx's Express unit was lowered to 6.9% from 7.3%, with inflationary pressures and weakening trade flows cited as key performance drags [6] - Since the start of 2025, EPS estimates for FedEx have fallen by 23% to 24% [7] Industry Overview - The broader sector outlook is deteriorating due to the lapse of the de minimis exemption, which previously allowed many small parcels, particularly from China, to bypass duties [7] - Both UPS and FedEx derive over 15% of their revenue from international express shipments, making the policy shift a significant concern in an already soft macro environment [7]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America analysts have downgraded shares of FedEx and UPS, reflecting increased caution regarding the performance of these U.S. shipping giants amid rising pressures on volume and costs [1][3]. Group 1: Rating Changes - FedEx's rating was downgraded from "buy" to "neutral," with a price target reduced by $5 to $240, which is below the average target of over $269 [2]. - UPS's rating was changed from "neutral" to "underperform," with a target set at $83, the lowest tracked by Visible Alpha and significantly below the mean of approximately $107 [2]. Group 2: Market Context - Both FedEx and UPS stocks have been underperforming this year, contrasting with the S&P 500's rise, indicating broader market challenges for these companies [3]. - The downgrade comes in light of increased pressure on volume and costs, exacerbated by the Trump administration's decision to close a tariff exemption for certain low-value items, impacting some companies negatively [3]. Group 3: Recent Performance - UPS reported second-quarter revenue that exceeded expectations, but disappointing profits and a lack of future guidance led to a decline in share prices [4]. - FedEx suspended its outlook in June, with its shares trading at levels similar to those seen after that announcement [4]. Group 4: Market Reaction - Despite the downgrades, both companies' stocks experienced a rise in recent trading, driven by optimism surrounding potential interest rate cuts [5].

Core Insights - United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is recognized as one of the best freight stocks to invest in, despite recent revenue declines and an adjusted EPS miss [1] - The company reported a 0.8% decline in revenue in the U.S. Domestic Segment and a 2.6% drop in the International Segment, with adjusted EPS of $1.55 falling short of the $1.57 analysts expected [2] - UPS's Director, Christiana Smith Shi, purchased 500 shares valued at $44,080, signaling confidence in the company amidst mixed analyst opinions [3] - The company has an upside potential of 17.59% and is supported by 53 hedge funds holding stakes, indicating strong institutional interest [4] - Founded in 1907 and headquartered in Georgia, UPS is one of the largest global logistics and package delivery companies, offering a wide range of services [5]

Group 1 - United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is recognized as one of the best dividend stocks to buy, with UBS maintaining a Buy rating and a price target of $118 due to successful network changes [1] - UPS is planning to close 74 terminals in the first half of 2025 to manage reduced business from Amazon, alongside a workforce reduction of 20,000 and a target to lower expenses by $3.5 billion in 2025 [1][2] - Despite improvements, UPS faces challenges such as an unstable tariff environment, weaker domestic parcel volumes, and increased costs from Surepost insourcing [2] Group 2 - UBS emphasizes the importance of better visibility into domestic margin performance for UPS, but cautions that the effects of recent changes may take time to materialize [2] - There is a perspective that while UPS has investment potential, certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential with less downside risk [3]

美银证券将联合包裹的目标价从91美元下调至83美元，评级从"中性"下调至"跑输大市"，将联邦快递的 目标价从245美元下调至240美元，评级从"买入"下调至"中性"。该行指，美国取消小额包裹豁免影响快 递公司业务量，且成本压力增大。 ...

Group 1: Downgrades and Price Targets - BofA Global Research downgraded United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) to "underperform" from "neutral" and FedEx Corp (FDX) to "neutral" from "buy" [1] - The price target for UPS was cut to $83 from $91, while FDX's price objective was lowered to $240 from $245 [1] Group 2: Stock Performance and Market Trends - UPS was last seen at $84.06, having previously slipped to a five-year low of $82, with a 33.2% deficit projected for 2025 [2] - FDX was last seen trading at $229.82, with support at the $220 region, but has an 18.34% year-to-date deficit [4] Group 3: Options Trading Activity - UPS's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 6.03 indicates that options traders are more bullish than usual, ranking higher than 94% of annual readings [3] - For FDX, options traders have traded 3,805 puts, which is triple the intraday average, compared to 1,781 calls, with the most popular contract being the weekly 9/12 220-strike put [4]

UPS shares have been pummeled, losing more than a third of their value this year, amid an upheaval in global trade. Bank of America says its time to sell. https://t.co/ZaMWp3PEUw ...

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Core Viewpoint - Bank of America has issued a warning regarding the de minimis impact on United Parcel Service (UPS) and FedEx Corporation (FDX), leading to a downgrade of UPS from Neutral to Underperform [2] Company Analysis - Bank of America downgraded UPS to Underperform, indicating concerns about its performance relative to the market [2] - The warning from Bank of America highlights the significant impact of de minimis factors on both UPS and FedEx, suggesting potential challenges ahead for these companies [2] Industry Implications - The downgrade of UPS may reflect broader industry challenges that could affect the logistics and delivery sector, particularly in relation to market performance and competitive positioning [2]