Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, TotalEnergies, GALP, OMV, and Cenovus Energy, while BP and Eni are rated as "Neutral" [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for major oil companies, driven by expected increases in free cash flow and production growth rates. The average expected production growth for 2025-2027 is projected at 7% for the global sector [10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of refining margins, with European composite margins expected to stabilize around 5.00 in 2025, while US composite margins are projected to be around 15.67 [7][10]. - The macroeconomic assumptions indicate a gradual recovery in commodity prices, with Brent crude oil expected to average $65.99 per barrel in 2025, reflecting a slight increase from previous years [7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Ratings - BP: Current price at 380.7, target price 400, with a 5% upside, rated as Neutral (CBE) [10]. - Chevron: Current price at 144.97, target price 177, with a 22% upside, rated as Buy (CBE) [10]. - ExxonMobil: Current price at 109.73, target price 130, with an 18% upside, rated as Buy (CBE) [10]. - Shell: Current price at 2,615, target price 2,900, with an 11% upside, rated as Buy (CBE) [10]. - TotalEnergies: Current price at 54.74, target price 60, with a 10% upside, rated as Buy (CBE) [10]. - Eni: Current price at 13.86, target price 13.0, with a -6% downside, rated as Neutral (CBE) [10]. - Cenovus Energy: Current price at 14.42, target price 25, with a 73% upside, rated as Buy [10]. Financial Metrics - The report provides various financial metrics for the companies, including EV/DACF, FCF Yield, and P/E ratios, indicating strong financial health and potential for growth in the coming years [10]. - The average expected free cash flow yield for the sector is projected at 7.4% for 2025, reflecting robust cash generation capabilities [10]. Market Trends - The report notes a trend towards increased investment in renewable energy sources among major oil companies, which may impact their long-term strategies and market positioning [10]. - The refining sector is expected to see improvements in margins, particularly in the US and Europe, as demand recovers post-pandemic [7][10].

Market Overview - US stock indices experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.7% to 42,215.8 points, the S&P 500 down 0.84% to 5,982.72 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.91% to 19,521.09 points [4][5][6] Retail Sales Data - In May, US retail sales recorded the largest decline since the beginning of the year, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.9%, against an expected decline of 0.7%. The previous value was revised from an increase of 0.1% to a decrease of 0.1% [6] - Core retail sales fell by 0.3%, while expectations were for a 0.1% increase. The previous value was also revised from an increase of 0.1% to flat [6] Energy Sector - The European Commission proposed a legislative plan to gradually stop importing Russian natural gas and oil by the end of 2027, leading to a surge in international oil prices [11][12] - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for July delivery rose by $3.07, a 4.28% increase, closing at $74.84 per barrel. Brent crude for August delivery increased by $3.22, a 4.4% rise, closing at $76.45 per barrel [14][15] - Energy stocks saw a broad increase, with Occidental Petroleum and ExxonMobil rising over 1%, Chevron nearly 2%, ConocoPhillips up 0.53%, and Schlumberger up 0.47% [16] Airline Industry - Indian Airlines canceled at least five international flights due to technical issues, affecting Boeing aircraft [8] - Airline stocks showed weakness, with Boeing down 0.71%, American Airlines down over 3%, Delta Airlines down over 4%, Southwest Airlines down over 2%, and United Airlines down over 6% [9][10] Technology Sector - Major technology stocks fell across the board, with Tesla down nearly 4%, Apple down over 1%, Facebook down 0.7%, Amazon down 0.59%, Google down 0.46%, Nvidia down 0.39%, and Microsoft down 0.23% [18] - Amazon's CEO indicated that the adoption of generative AI tools will lead to a reduction in the workforce over the next few years, as fewer employees will be needed for certain tasks [19]

Core Viewpoint - Exxon Mobil's stock performance has outpaced the broader market, but upcoming earnings are expected to show significant declines in both earnings per share and revenue compared to the previous year [1][2]. Company Performance - Exxon Mobil closed at $114.00, with a daily increase of 1.35%, outperforming the S&P 500, which fell by 0.84% [1]. - Prior to the recent trading day, Exxon Mobil shares had increased by 3.97%, while the Oils-Energy sector remained flat [1]. Earnings Expectations - Analysts anticipate Exxon Mobil will report earnings of $1.47 per share, representing a year-over-year decline of 31.31% [2]. - Revenue is projected at $81.62 billion, reflecting a 12.29% decrease from the same quarter last year [2]. Full Year Projections - For the full year, earnings are expected to be $6.11 per share, down 21.57% from last year, with revenue estimated at $328.8 billion, a decline of 5.95% [3]. Analyst Estimates - Recent changes in analyst estimates indicate a shift in business dynamics, with positive revisions suggesting a favorable outlook on Exxon Mobil's health and profitability [4]. - Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has decreased by 3.29% [6]. Valuation Metrics - Exxon Mobil has a Forward P/E ratio of 18.42, which is higher than the industry average of 10.93 [6]. - The company also has a PEG ratio of 2.25, compared to the industry average of 1.86 [7]. Industry Context - The Oil and Gas - Integrated - International industry, which includes Exxon Mobil, ranks in the bottom 18% of all industries according to the Zacks Industry Rank [8].

Group 1: Market Supply and Demand - ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods stated that there is sufficient supply in the global oil market to handle any disruptions to Iranian exports, emphasizing that the main concern is the potential impact on infrastructure and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz [1] - Iran produces 3.3 million barrels per day of crude oil and exports approximately 1.6 million barrels per day, which constitutes less than 2% of total global demand [3] - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint, with an average of 20 million barrels per day flowing through it in 2024, representing about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption [4] Group 2: Price Movements - Oil prices surged following Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate prices reaching $72 per barrel due to concerns over potential disruptions to Iranian energy supplies [5] - Although the loss of Iranian oil could increase prices by up to $7.50 per barrel, significant disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz could push prices to $100 [7] - Prices began to stabilize as it was reported that export capacity remained intact despite the attacks [7] Group 3: Infrastructure and Capacity - Iran has 11 refineries with a total refining capacity of 2.5 million barrels per day, while Israel has two refineries with a combined capacity of 300,000 barrels per day [9][11] - The Shahr Rey Refinery in Iran, targeted by Israeli missiles, has a capacity of 225,000 barrels per day, indicating the scale of potential impacts on refining capabilities [8]

I fully expect the oil giant to continue increasing its dividend every year through at least 2030 despite oil market volatility and a steady shift toward cleaner fuel sources. Here's what fuels that prediction. Companies that pay a stable dividend can make solid investments. Historically, they've produced higher total returns with less volatility than companies that don't pay dividends. However, the highest total returns have come from companies that regularly increase their dividends. Few companies can mat ...

Analyst's Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of XOM, CVX either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The information provided in this article is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. The a ...

Core Viewpoint - Exxon Mobil Corporation's stock is experiencing an upward trend due to geopolitical tensions, specifically Israel's attack on Iran, which has created volatility in the oil markets [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock is trading higher as the value of Exxon Mobil's extensive oil holdings increases, leading to a rise in the company's overall value [1]. - The trading team has designated Exxon as the Stock of the Day, indicating a potential for continued upward movement [2]. - There was a noted resistance level around $109.50, where significant selling pressure previously existed [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Breakouts, such as the one recently experienced by Exxon, often lead to uptrends as sellers exit the market, allowing new buyers to bid higher [6]. - If the stock continues to rally, it may encounter further resistance around $118, a level that previously acted as a peak in March [6]. - Remorseful buyers who purchased shares at the peak may sell if the stock returns to their buy price, potentially capping the price increase [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices surged by 6% following an Israeli attack on Iran, leading to significant gains in U.S. energy stocks during pre-market trading [1] Group 1: Oil Price Movement - Oil prices increased by 6% after the military action taken by Israel against Iran [1] Group 2: Energy Stock Performance - Devon Energy rose by 6% [1] - ExxonMobil increased by 3.6% [1] - Chevron saw a rise of 3.4% [1] - ConocoPhillips gained 4.4% [1]

Core Insights - Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is significantly impacted by declining oil prices, particularly in its upstream business, which is closely tied to the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil [1][3][8] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects a decrease in WTI prices, with an average of $62.33 per barrel in 2025, down from $76.60 per barrel last year, and further declining to $55.58 per barrel in 2026 [2] Group 1: Company Performance - XOM's upstream earnings are under pressure due to a more than 7% drop in WTI crude prices this year, but its low-cost operations in the Permian Basin help mitigate outright losses [3][8] - XOM's shares have gained only 1.6% year to date, slightly outperforming the industry average of 0.9% [7] - The current enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio for XOM is 6.65X, which is higher than the industry average of 4.15X [9] Group 2: Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for XOM's 2025 earnings has remained unchanged over the past week, with estimates at $6.11 per share [10][11] - Historical earnings estimates for XOM have shown a downward trend over the past 90 days, with previous estimates for 2025 being as high as $7.41 per share [11] Group 3: Industry Context - Other major players in the industry, such as Chevron Corporation (CVX) and BP plc (BP), are also experiencing challenges due to lower oil prices, as they generate significant earnings from upstream operations [4][6] - Both CVX and BP have low breakeven costs in the Permian Basin, which helps them navigate the current pricing environment [5][6]

Company Performance - Exxon Mobil (XOM) closed at $107.22, with a daily increase of +2.14%, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.55% [1] - Over the past month, Exxon Mobil's shares have decreased by 3.84%, underperforming the Oils-Energy sector's gain of 3% and the S&P 500's gain of 6.29% [1] Upcoming Earnings - The upcoming earnings per share (EPS) for Exxon Mobil is projected at $1.47, reflecting a 31.31% decline compared to the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is anticipated to be $81.62 billion, indicating a 12.29% decrease from the same quarter last year [2] Annual Forecast - For the entire year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of $6.11 per share and revenue of $328.8 billion, representing declines of -21.57% and -5.95%, respectively, compared to the previous year [3] Analyst Estimates - Recent changes to analyst estimates for Exxon Mobil suggest a shifting business landscape, with upward revisions indicating positive sentiment towards the company's operations [4] - The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has decreased by 3.88% in the past month, and Exxon Mobil currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [6] Valuation Metrics - Exxon Mobil is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 17.19, which is a premium compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 10.33 [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 2.1, compared to the industry average PEG ratio of 1.78 [7] Industry Context - The Oil and Gas - Integrated - International industry, which includes Exxon Mobil, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 232, placing it in the bottom 6% of over 250 industries [8]