Group 1 - The company announced Q2 2025 operational data, indicating a low single-digit year-on-year growth in main brand retail revenue, with discounts ranging from 70% to 75% [1] - In H1 2025, the main brand retail revenue achieved mid-single-digit year-on-year growth, while Saucony's retail sales exceeded 30% growth [1] - The Q2 2025 retail revenue growth for Saucony was over 20%, but the growth rate slowed by approximately 40% compared to Q1 2025, attributed to adjustments in the e-commerce strategy [1] Group 2 - The company is focusing on a direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategy, which may have short-term negative impacts on sales but is expected to enhance consumer interaction and brand loyalty in the long run [2] - Saucony plans to expand its product matrix and open around 30 new stores in high-end markets after acquiring full rights to Saucony and Merrell, which is expected to improve gross margins [2] - The sale of the KP brand is aimed at reducing financial drag and focusing on three main brands, with revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 set at 14.286 billion, 15.558 billion, and 17.251 billion yuan respectively [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The main brand of the company shows steady growth, with a low single-digit increase in revenue for Q2 2025, while Saucony's revenue grew by over 20% year-on-year, with a strategic adjustment in e-commerce channels leading to a reduction in low-priced products and tighter discounts [1][2] - The company expects Saucony's revenue to grow by 30-40% for the full year, maintaining its guidance despite a slowdown in Q2 due to strategic adjustments [2] - The Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) strategy will officially start in Q4 2025, aiming to optimize retail structure and improve operational efficiency [2] Financial Summary - The projected revenue for 2025 is approximately 14.39 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6% [4] - The expected net profit for 2025 is around 1.37 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.92% [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.50 yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.86 [4]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the EPS forecast for Xtep International at 0.50/0.55 HKD for 2025/26, with a target price of 6.90 HKD, indicating a 29% upside potential from the current stock price [1] Group 1: Xtep Brand Performance - In Q2 2025, Xtep's main brand retail revenue grew by a low single-digit percentage year-on-year, driven by professional categories [2] - The running and outdoor categories led overall growth, with running sales in the first half of 2025 increasing by double digits [2] - Retail discounts for the main brand remained stable at 70-75%, with channel inventory turnover at 4-4.5 months by the end of June [2] Group 2: Saucony and Merrell Growth - Saucony brand saw retail revenue growth of over 20% year-on-year in Q2 2025, focusing on high-end urban consumers and running categories [3] - The brand plans to accelerate offline channel expansion in the second half of 2025, targeting a 30-40% year-on-year revenue growth for the full year [3] - Merrell brand experienced over 50% retail revenue growth in Q2 2025, with a focus on online channel development [3] Group 3: Channel Transformation - The company plans to gradually reclaim 100-200 Xtep main brand stores for DTC transformation in Q4 2025, with a capital expenditure of approximately 400 million HKD [4] - The number of stores involved in the DTC transformation is relatively low, and the management expects limited impact on overall revenue for 2025-2026 [4] - Future plans include accelerating the layout of Xtep main brand in shopping centers and outlet channels, which currently account for about 30% [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 6.58 [1][2][9] Core Views - The company's main brand experienced low single-digit growth in Q2 2025, while the Saucony brand showed strong growth potential [6][8] - The company is focusing on accelerating its direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategy for its main brand and expanding the Saucony product matrix, which is expected to create a second growth curve [6][9] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: RMB 13,577 million - 2025E: RMB 14,486 million (growth of 6.69%) - 2026E: RMB 15,789 million (growth of 9.00%) - 2027E: RMB 17,385 million (growth of 10.10%) [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be: - 2024: RMB 1,238 million - 2025E: RMB 1,372 million (growth of 10.82%) - 2026E: RMB 1,530 million (growth of 11.52%) - 2027E: RMB 1,711 million (growth of 11.81%) [5] - The company’s EPS is expected to increase from RMB 0.45 in 2025 to RMB 0.61 in 2027 [5] Operational Insights - In Q2 2025, the main brand's overall channel revenue showed low single-digit year-on-year growth, while the Saucony brand's revenue grew over 20% year-on-year [6][8] - The main brand's running category continues to be a significant growth driver, with expectations of double-digit growth in the first half of the year [7] - The company anticipates a healthy inventory turnover ratio of 4-4.5 months, maintaining a stable operational rhythm [7] Market Positioning - The Saucony brand is expected to achieve 30%-40% revenue growth for the year, driven by channel optimization and product upgrades [8] - The company is focusing on high-end brand positioning and expanding its product offerings to include lifestyle and leisure products [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][4][8] Core Views - The company's main brand saw low single-digit growth in retail sales for the second quarter, while the Saucony brand experienced over 30% growth [3][4] - The overall performance for the first half of the year aligns with the annual guidance, with stable discounts and inventory levels [4][5] - The management maintains the annual guidance, aiming for over 10% profit growth [6][8] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the second quarter, the main brand's retail sales growth was low single-digit year-on-year, with discounts ranging from 7.0 to 7.5 [3][5] - The Saucony brand's retail sales grew over 20% year-on-year, with a focus on reducing low-priced products in e-commerce to synchronize online and offline offerings [6][8] Financial Forecasts - The company expects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.4 billion, 1.5 billion, and 1.6 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.2%, 5.9%, and 7.7% [4][9] - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at 14.3 billion, with a growth rate of 5.4% [9] Market Positioning - The company is focusing on the running category to leverage its professional advantages, with expectations for steady growth in the main brand and rapid growth in professional sports brands like Saucony and Maile [4][8] - The management anticipates that the main brand will achieve stable growth in the mass market, while Saucony and Maile will target specific elite groups and outdoor markets for faster growth [4][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company's main brand retail revenue showed low single-digit growth year-on-year in Q2 2025, while the Saucony brand achieved over 20% year-on-year growth [2][3] - The retail discount for Q2 2025 remained healthy at 70-75%, consistent with Q1 2025 [3] - The company is focusing on a direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategy, which may have short-term negative impacts on sales but is expected to enhance brand loyalty and retention in the long term [4] Summary by Sections Event Overview - In Q2 2025, the main brand's retail revenue experienced low single-digit growth year-on-year, with discounts ranging from 70% to 75%. The Saucony brand saw retail sales growth exceeding 20% year-on-year [2] Analysis and Judgments - The main brand's retail revenue growth slowed from mid-single digits in Q1 2025 to low single digits in Q2 2025. The retail discount remained stable compared to previous quarters, indicating a healthy pricing strategy [3] - Saucony and another brand, Myle, benefited from their superior performance in professional running and outdoor segments, with Saucony's retail growth slowing to about 20% in Q2 2025, down from approximately 40% in Q1 2025 due to adjustments in e-commerce strategy [3] Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to continue expanding its product matrix and open around 30 new Saucony stores throughout the year. The sale of the KP brand is anticipated to reduce financial drag and allow a focus on three main brands [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 142.86 billion, 155.58 billion, and 172.51 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 13.74 billion, 15.11 billion, and 16.64 billion. The estimated EPS for these years is 0.50, 0.54, and 0.60 respectively, with PE ratios of 10, 9, and 8 [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Xtep International Holdings with a 12-month price target of HK$7.00, indicating an upside potential of 19.9% from the current price of HK$5.84 [10][11]. Core Insights - The company has reiterated its full-year guidance, expecting positive sales growth at the group level, with Saucony and Merrell brands projected to achieve 30%-40% sales growth and over 10% year-on-year net profit growth [2][10]. - Xtep's core business has maintained stable discount levels in the second quarter of 2025, attributed to healthy inventory levels [7][10]. - Management believes that Xtep's established brand recognition and ecosystem provide a competitive advantage in the growing running category [7][10]. Summary by Sections Full Year Guidance - The company expects to deliver positive sales growth at the group level, with Saucony and Merrell brands projected to achieve 30%-40% sales growth and over 10% year-on-year net profit growth [2][10]. Xtep Core - The discount level has remained stable in the second quarter of 2025 due to healthy inventory levels, and the brand is focusing on maintaining stable profit margins [7][10]. Saucony Brand - In the second half of 2025, management anticipates a broader product assortment to meet functional and fashion demands, including new fabrics and an increased focus on women's products, aiming to raise the female sales mix from 10-20% to 30% within the next 1-2 years [4][8]. - The company aims to double Saucony's revenue by 2027 through store expansion, targeting 30-50 new stores annually and enhancing store productivity [4][8].

Summary of Xtep International Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Xtep International - **Brands**: Xtep main brand, Saucony Key Points Industry and Market Performance - Xtep's main brand maintains a healthy discount level of approximately 70-75% and an inventory turnover of about 4 months [2][3] - The impact of US tariffs on Xtep is minimal, as the main brand has less than 1% market share in the US, with overseas business primarily in India and Vietnam [2][4][5] Inventory and Sales Strategy - The company plans to clear inventory during the 618 promotional period while maintaining healthy discount levels [2][6] - Xtep aims to recover 400-500 stores for a Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) transformation, with 100-200 stores expected to be recovered in the second half of 2025 [2][8] DTC Transformation - The DTC strategy is driven by the retirement of some distributors and the need for direct market feedback [10][11] - Initial revenue impact from the DTC transition is expected to be a low single-digit percentage decline due to the need to reclassify wholesale revenue [9][10] - The long-term goal is to improve operational efficiency and increase profit margins through the DTC model [10][11] Saucony Brand Development - Saucony plans to open 30-40 new stores in 2025, aiming for a total of 180-190 stores, focusing on high-end malls in first-tier cities [4][12] - The brand targets a revenue doubling to 2 billion RMB by 2027, with a projected growth of 30-40% in 2025 [4][16] - Saucony's product offerings will expand to include more casual and apparel items, with a goal to increase apparel's share from under 20% to around 30% [24] Competitive Landscape - Xtep faces competition from brands like Anta, which has introduced super stores with lower price multipliers [18] - The company operates its own outlet stores, recovering inventory from distributors and selling at discounted prices [19] Financial Outlook - Xtep expects a net profit growth of over 10% in 2025, with a focus on inventory control and operational efficiency [20][28] - The company anticipates Saucony will achieve a growth rate of 30-40% in 2025, with a net profit margin of at least 10% [28] Marketing and Brand Strategy - The marketing strategy includes celebrity endorsements and sponsorships to enhance brand visibility, with a significant investment in advertising [17] - The company is adjusting its store formats to include larger spaces (200+ square meters) to improve sales efficiency [17][21] Supply Chain and Production - Approximately 70% of Xtep's footwear is outsourced, while 90% of apparel is produced externally [5] - Saucony's products are designed by a local team, with 60% of products produced internationally and 40% developed locally [26][27] Consumer Demographics - The introduction of more women's apparel is expected to increase the female consumer ratio, which is currently dominated by male customers [25] Additional Insights - The DTC model allows for quicker market response and operational adjustments, enhancing overall efficiency [11] - The company is focused on maintaining a balance between brand development and shareholder interests, ensuring sustainable growth [20]

Financial Performance - The company's revenue increased by 37.5% to RMB 5,684 million[2,4] - Profit attributable to ordinary equity holders increased by 38.4% to RMB 590 million[2,4] - The core Xtep brand revenue reached RMB 4,898 million[2] - Interim dividend per share was HK 13.0 cents, with a payout ratio of 50.3%[2] Core Xtep Brand - Core Xtep brand revenue increased by 36.2% to RMB 4,898 million[10,55] - Xtep Kids' revenue increased by 84% to RMB 721 million, accounting for approximately 15% of the core Xtep brand's revenue[30] Athleisure (K-Swiss & Palladium) - Revenue increased by 36.3% to RMB 629 million[35] - Gross profit margin decreased by 3.7% points to 39.8%[35] Professional Sports (Saucony & Merrell) - Revenue increased by 106.4% to RMB 157 million[42,70] - Gross profit increased by 109.0% to RMB 90 million[42] Retail Network - There are 6,251 Xtep branded stores in Mainland China and overseas[2,27]

Financial Performance - Group revenue reached RMB 12,930 million, a 29.1% increase year-over-year[2,6] - Core Xtep brand revenue grew to RMB 11,128 million, representing a 25.9% increase[2,6] - Group's operating profit increased to RMB 1,464 million, a 4.9% increase[2,6] - Profit attributable to ordinary equity holders of the Company increased to RMB 922 million, a 1.5% increase[2,6] Core Xtep Brand Analysis - Core Xtep brand's operating profit increased to RMB 1,759 million, a 9.4% increase[2,81] - Core Xtep brand's net profit increased to RMB 1,345 million, a 10.7% increase[2,81] - Xtep Kids' revenue increased by 52% to RMB 1,671 million, accounting for 15% of the core Xtep brand's revenue in 2022[42] Brand Portfolio Performance - Athleisure brands (K-Swiss & Palladium) revenue increased by 44.4% to RMB 1,402 million[48,70] - Professional sports brands (Saucony & Merrell) revenue increased by 99.0% to RMB 400 million[55,70]