17 October 2025 | 5:27PM HKT Equity Research Xtep International Holdings (1368.HK) FY25 guidance reiterated; Xtep brand in-line while Saucony set for 4Q acceleration; Buy 1368.HK 12m Price Target: HK$6.80 Price: HK$6.01 Upside: 13.1% Xtep reported 3Q25 operating results with Xtep core at LSD% yoy (in-line) retail sales growth and Saucony at >20% yoy (slight miss). The company reiterated full year guidance of positive growth at Xtep brand, >30% for Saucony, and >10% NP growth. For Xtep core, we believe the L ...

Summary of Xtep International Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Xtep International - **Date**: October 17, 2025 Key Points Industry and Market Performance - Xtep International anticipates accelerated sales in Q4, with online channels (Tmall, live streaming, Douyin) maintaining double-digit growth [2][3] - The sales of the 2000 km flagship running shoes have doubled, while offline sales remain stable, with stores in third and fourth-tier cities accounting for over 70% [2][3] - Functional running shoes and outdoor categories have achieved double-digit growth, with the marathon season expected to boost running shoe sales [2][3] - The Saucony brand experienced over 20% growth in Q3, with offline sales growth exceeding 30% [2][6] Financial Guidance - Xtep maintains a full-year profit growth guidance of over 10%, with the main brand expected to grow and Saucony's revenue projected to increase by over 30% [2][10] - The company plans to open 70-100 new outlet stores, with average monthly sales per store reaching over one million [2][5] Strategic Initiatives - Xtep is upgrading store images, with over 70% of stores reflecting the new design [3][4] - The company is implementing a Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) strategy, expected to officially launch in Q4, with plans to recover approximately 400 stores by the end of next year [4][16] - New outlet concepts, "Leading Outlet" and "Selected Outlet," are being introduced, focusing on high-end running products and a diverse product selection [4][19] Product and Sales Strategy - The main brand's overall performance in Q3 showed low single-digit growth, with children's business outpacing adult sales [3][20] - The company is focusing on enhancing its product lines, particularly in running and outdoor categories, while also addressing the impact of macroeconomic conditions on lifestyle products [3][9] - The introduction of new winter products and collaborations is expected to boost sales in Q4 [9][13] E-commerce and Promotional Activities - E-commerce adjustments have led to a slight decline in Saucony's sales growth in Q2 and Q3, but improvements are anticipated during the upcoming promotional periods [8][9] - The company is preparing for significant sales events like Double Eleven and Christmas, aiming to leverage these opportunities for growth [12][22] Inventory and Financial Health - Xtep aims to maintain inventory below 2 billion yuan by year-end, with healthy inventory levels across all channels [18] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 50% [18] Future Outlook - Xtep remains confident in achieving its goal of tripling revenue by 2027 and maintaining a profit margin of 15%-20% in the next 3-5 years [11][17] - The company is optimistic about the sports industry’s growth potential, supported by government policies promoting sports consumption [7] Additional Insights - The Saucony brand's international business growth is positively impacting domestic operations, with flagship stores in Tokyo and London performing well [17] - The children's segment has shown significant growth, aided by the brand's repositioning and targeted marketing strategies [20][21] This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic directions discussed during the conference call, highlighting Xtep International's performance, market strategies, and future outlook.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 8.01 HKD based on a 15x PE valuation for 2025 [3][10]. Core Insights - The company shows resilience in its operations for the third quarter, particularly in the running segment, with expectations for continued competitive strength [2]. - The main brand, Xtep, has demonstrated steady growth, while the subsidiary brand, Saucony, has shown strong revenue growth, indicating a positive outlook for the company's multi-brand strategy [9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 14,452 million, 15,795 million, and 17,244 million RMB, respectively, with expected growth rates of 6.4%, 9.3%, and 9.2% [4]. - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,369 million, 1,558 million, and 1,745 million RMB for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 10.6%, 13.7%, and 12.0% [4]. - Earnings per share are projected to increase from 0.49 RMB in 2025 to 0.62 RMB in 2027, with corresponding growth rates [4][10]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 44.0% in 2025 to 45.0% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [4]. Market Performance - The company's stock price as of October 17, 2025, is 5.8 HKD, with a 52-week high of 6.64 HKD and a low of 4.26 HKD [5]. - The company has a market capitalization of 16,254 million HKD [5]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights the competitive dynamics within the industry, noting that the company is well-positioned in the running segment, with a focus on product innovation and channel optimization [9]. - The performance of the Saucony brand is particularly noted for its potential growth, with expectations of over 30% sales growth for the year [9].

Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 operational data, indicating a low single-digit year-on-year growth in retail sales for its main brand, with discounts ranging from 70% to 75% [1] - The retail sales of Saucony exceeded 20% year-on-year growth in Q3 2025, despite a decline compared to over 50% growth in Q3 2024 [1] Retail Performance - Q3 2025 retail sales showed low single-digit year-on-year growth, with the growth rate remaining flat compared to Q2 2025 [1] - The retail discount for Q3 2025 was maintained at 70% to 75%, consistent with Q2 2025, while slightly decreasing from 75% in Q3 2024 [1] - Channel inventory turnover was 4 to 4.5 months in Q3 2025, slightly up from 4 months in Q3 2024 and flat compared to the first half of 2025 [1] Brand Analysis - Saucony and Merrell benefited from superior performance in professional running and outdoor segments [1] - The growth of Saucony's retail sales in Q3 2025 was over 20%, with growth rate flat compared to Q2 2025, but down from over 50% in Q3 2024, attributed to adjustments in the e-commerce strategy [1] Investment Recommendations - Short-term impacts from the DTC strategy may negatively affect sales, but it is expected to enhance consumer interaction and brand loyalty in the long run [1] - Saucony plans to expand its product matrix and develop retro and commuting series to meet diverse consumer needs, while also opening high-end stores in first and second-tier cities [1] - The company maintains revenue forecasts of 14.286 billion, 15.558 billion, and 17.251 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of 1.374 billion, 1.511 billion, and 1.664 billion yuan for the same years [1] - The projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 0.50, 0.54, and 0.60 yuan, respectively, with a "buy" rating maintained [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8] Core Views - The company's main brand revenue performance in Q3 is stable, with children's and online sales showing growth. The overall channel revenue for the main brand increased by a low single-digit percentage year-on-year, consistent with Q2's performance. Online sales outperformed offline, maintaining double-digit growth, while children's products outperformed adult products. Running and outdoor categories achieved double-digit growth, and functional products accounted for over 60% of the brand's offerings, stabilizing the core business [5][8] - The company is actively optimizing its channel structure and accelerating its layout in outlet stores. The new store formats have already exceeded 70% of the total store count, with a focus on high-end outlet malls. The company plans to expand its outlet store count to 70-100 by 2026, aligning with positive market trends in outlet channels [8][8] - The company is progressing steadily in its Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) transformation, planning to reclaim approximately 100 stores in Q4, with a total of 400 stores by the end of 2025. This move is expected to enhance long-term channel competitiveness [8] - The company is optimizing its multi-brand matrix by divesting from fashion sports brands and focusing on core running business, which is expected to strengthen its competitive position in the running segment [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company's revenue for FY2023 is projected at 143 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 10.3 billion RMB, reflecting a 12% increase year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.41 RMB [6][18] - For FY2024, revenue is expected to decline by 5% to 136 billion RMB, while net profit is projected to increase by 20% to 12.4 billion RMB. The EPS is anticipated to remain at 0.49 RMB [6][18] - The company forecasts a gradual increase in revenue and net profit from FY2025 to FY2027, with net profits expected to reach 16.0 billion RMB by FY2027, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 9 [6][18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company's main brand experienced low single-digit growth in retail sales for Q3 2025, while the Saucony brand achieved over 20% year-on-year growth in retail sales [2][3] - The retail discount for Q3 2025 was maintained at a healthy level of 70-75%, consistent with Q2 2025 [3] - The company is focusing on a direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategy, which may have short-term negative impacts on sales but is expected to enhance consumer interaction and brand loyalty in the long run [4] Summary by Sections Event Overview - The company reported Q3 2025 operational data showing low single-digit year-on-year growth in retail sales for its main brand, with Saucony retail sales exceeding 20% year-on-year growth [2] Analysis and Judgments - Q3 2025 retail sales growth for the main brand was low single-digit, with the growth rate remaining flat compared to Q2 2025 [3] - The retail discount for Q3 2025 was stable at 70-75%, slightly down from 75% in Q3 2024 [3] - Saucony and Myle's brands benefited from their superior performance in professional running and outdoor tracks, with Saucony's retail growth exceeding 20% [3] Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to continue expanding its product matrix and develop retro and commuting series to meet diverse consumer needs [4] - The company maintains its revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 142.86 billion, 155.58 billion, and 172.51 billion respectively, with net profits of 13.74 billion, 15.11 billion, and 16.64 billion [4] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.50, 0.54, and 0.60 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11, 10, and 9 [4]

Core Insights - Xtep International reported its operational status for the third quarter of 2025 in mainland China, highlighting a low single-digit year-on-year growth in retail sales for its main brand, including both online and offline channels [1] - The retail discount level for the main brand ranged between 70% to 75% [1] - Sales for the Saucony brand experienced a significant increase, achieving over 20% year-on-year growth, also including both online and offline channels [1]

Core Insights - The company reported a low single-digit year-on-year growth in retail sales for its main brand, including both online and offline channels [1] - The retail sales for the Saucony brand, including online and offline channels, achieved over 20% year-on-year growth [1] Summary by Category Company Performance - The main brand of the company experienced low single-digit growth in retail sales compared to the previous year [1] - The Saucony brand showed significant performance with retail sales growth exceeding 20% year-on-year [1]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the operational performance of Xtep International in the third quarter of 2025, specifically focusing on retail sales growth for its main brand and the Saucony brand in mainland China [1] Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - Xtep's main brand retail sales, encompassing both online and offline channels, achieved low single-digit year-on-year growth [1] - Saucony's retail sales, including online and offline channels, experienced over 20% year-on-year growth [1]

香 港 交易 及 結 算 所 有限 公 司 以 及香 港 聯 合 交 易所 有 限 公 司 對本 公 佈 之 內容 概 不 負責 ， 對 其 準 確性 或 完 整 性亦 不 發 表 任 何聲 明 ， 並 明 確表 示 ， 概 不對 因 本 公佈 全 部 或 任 何部 分 內 容 而產 生 或 因 倚 賴該 等 內 容 而 引致 之 任 何 損失 承擔任何責任。 Xtep International Holdings Limited 特 步 國 際 控 股 有 限 公 司 （於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：1368） 二零二五年第三季度中國內地業務營運狀況 本公佈由特步國際控股有限公司（「本公司」，連同其附屬公司「本集團」）董 事會（「董事會」）發出。 特步國際控股有限公司 索康尼 主席 丁水波 | | | 香港，二零二五年十月十七日 本 公 司股 東 及 潛 在 投資 者 須 注 意， 此 公 佈 是 根據 本 集 團 未 經審 計 的 營 運資 料而編製，這些資料尚未經過本公司審計師審計或覆核。 本公司建議本公司股東及潛在投資者在進行本公司股份交易時謹慎行事。 營運狀況（截至二零二五年九月三十日 ...