Market Performance - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index opened slightly higher, currently up over 1% with notable gains in companies such as ZTO Express and Miniso, both rising over 4%, and GDS Holdings up over 3% [1] - The US stock market opened with all three major indices showing gains: the Dow Jones up 0.59%, the Nasdaq up 0.75%, and the S&P 500 up 0.55% [2] - Futures for the three major US indices were also up, with Dow futures rising 0.45%, S&P 500 futures up 0.57%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 0.73% [3] Company-Specific Movements - Eli Lilly saw a significant drop of over 9%, while Intel and Honda both fell over 2%. In contrast, Apple experienced an increase of over 2% [2] - Intel's pre-market decline expanded to 5% following comments from Trump demanding the resignation of Intel's CEO [3]

Core Insights - Zhongtong Express has successfully launched the first regular unmanned delivery route in Tibet, addressing the challenges of logistics in high-altitude areas [1][2] - The introduction of unmanned vehicles has significantly reduced delivery costs and improved efficiency, with a notable decrease in delivery time for local residents [1][2] - The company plans to expand its unmanned delivery network to cover more towns in the region within the next month [2] Cost and Efficiency Improvements - Previously, manual delivery to remote towns incurred a monthly driver cost of 7,500 yuan and fuel costs of 50 yuan for a 60 km round trip [1] - The investment in two unmanned vehicles totaled 120,000 yuan, with each charge costing only 15 yuan, allowing for three 60 km round trips [1] - Unmanned vehicles have improved delivery frequency, with one vehicle now able to make daily trips, reducing overall delivery time by one hour [1] Technological Impact and Future Plans - The unmanned delivery model is seen as a transformative solution for logistics in extreme environments, with potential applications in similar regions both domestically and internationally [4] - The successful implementation in Tibet serves as a reference for expanding logistics capabilities in other challenging terrains, such as deserts and mountainous areas [4] - Zhongtong Express aims to create a comprehensive highland smart delivery network, enhancing service accessibility for remote communities [2]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongtong Express (02057) has seen a rise of over 4%, currently trading at 163.3 HKD, with a transaction volume of 542 million HKD, following a price increase in the express delivery sector in Guangdong Province [1] Industry Summary - Starting from August 4, the base price for express delivery in Guangdong Province has been raised by 0.4 HKD per ticket, with the average price now exceeding 1.4 HKD [1] - Companies are mandated not to collect below the cost price of 1.4 HKD, with penalties for non-compliance [1] - The National Postal Administration has emphasized the need to address issues such as "involution" competition and illegal charges in rural areas, aiming to maintain a healthy development environment for the industry [1] Company Summary - Zheshang Securities indicates that with the end of the off-peak season and the upcoming peak season in September, there is potential for broader price stabilization and recovery, which may alleviate pressure on franchise operations [1] - Recently, Shentong Express's acquisition of Daniao marks the beginning of resource consolidation in the express delivery industry under the national anti-involution policy [1] - The National Postal Administration encourages mergers and restructuring among express delivery companies, leading to a healthier industry structure and optimized competitive ecology, which may present sector-wide investment opportunities [1]

智通财经APP获悉，中通快递-W(02057)涨超4%，暂领升蓝筹。截至发稿，涨4.28%，报163.3港元，成 交额5.42亿港元。 消息面上，据南方都市报，8月4日起，广东省快递底价整体上调0.4元/票，均价涨至1.4元以上。按照有 关部门要求，各家均不得低于1.4元成本价揽收，否则将遭受重罚。多位快递企业人士证实了该消 息，"确实是涨价了，0.1kg不能低于1.4元，已经开始了。"此前7月29日，国家邮政局召开快递企业座谈 会强调，积极推动解决"内卷式"竞争和农村地区领取快件违规收费等突出问题，维护好行业良好发展业 态。 浙商证券指出，随着淡季结束，9月旺季到来，有望看到价格更大范围企稳回升，从而加盟商经营承压 或将改善，快递业绩及板块情绪有望实现阶段性修复。此外，申通近日收购丹鸟拉开了快递行业在国家 反内卷背景下资源整合的序幕，中长期看，国家邮政局鼓励快递企业兼并重组，快递行业结构趋于健 康，竞争生态优化，有望带来板块性的投资机会。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the express delivery industry in China, particularly focusing on the implementation of anti-involution policies in Guangdong Province starting July 7, 2025, which aims to stabilize pricing and protect the rights of couriers [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Implementation of Anti-Involution Policies**: - Guangdong Province has established a guiding group to adjust pricing standards based on the cost standards set by the Yiwu Postal Administration, with prices for major companies like Zhongtong, Yuantong, Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu set at approximately 1.48 CNY, 1.45 CNY, and 1.40 CNY per kilogram respectively [1][4]. - A 15-day lock period from August 5 to 20 was established to prevent cross-region pickups, with strict enforcement of the guiding prices [1][4]. - **Market Performance**: - The average growth rate of the express delivery industry in the first half of 2025 was 16.8%, with a decline of 6.8%. The expected annual growth rate is projected to reach 18% to 19% [6]. - Daily average package volume in Guangdong reached 129 million, accounting for about 40% of the national total, with Zhongtong leading at 34 million packages daily [2]. - **Pricing Adjustments**: - The average price for regular franchisees ranges from 1.20 to 1.25 CNY per kilogram, while discounted express services are priced lower, with Zhongtong's special express at approximately 1.05 CNY [2][5]. - A price increase of 0.2 CNY per package was implemented across all brands in Guangdong, with adjustments based on market conditions [5]. - **Competitive Dynamics**: - Zhongtong and Yuantong are expected to benefit from the price adjustments, as they can narrow the cost gap with competitors, enhancing their competitive edge [7][8]. - Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu are focusing on price increases to mitigate losses [7]. - **Future Outlook**: - The express delivery market is expected to see a stable and prolonged price increase trend, particularly during peak seasons from August to September [5]. - The introduction of mandatory social insurance for couriers is anticipated to further drive price increases, with an expected average rise of around 0.15 CNY [5]. Additional Important Insights - **Cost Structure and Profitability**: - Zhongtong's system cost is approximately 1.25 CNY per kilogram, leading to widespread losses among outlets due to pricing pressures [3]. - The profit margins between different brands vary significantly, with Zhongtong's single ticket profit at 0.26 CNY and Yuantong at 0.15 CNY, indicating a direct impact on pricing power [17]. - **Strategic Moves by Companies**: - Shentong's acquisition of Alibaba's Dan Niao may provide short-term benefits, but long-term success will depend on improving pricing capabilities in the low-price segment [9]. - Jitu faces challenges with network integration post-acquisition of Best Express, leading to increased operational costs [10]. - **Labor Market Dynamics**: - There is currently no significant shortage of couriers, with average earnings between 7,000 to 12,000 CNY. However, upcoming regulations requiring social insurance may lead to fluctuations in labor supply [22]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, highlighting the express delivery industry's current state, competitive landscape, and future expectations.

Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October to discuss the 15th Five-Year Plan for economic and social development, emphasizing the need for stable and flexible policies[5] - The government plans to allocate approximately 90% of the 90 billion yuan budget for childcare subsidies from the central finance[6] Market Trends - The bond market showed signs of recovery, with the yield on the 10-year government bond decreasing by 2.75 basis points to 1.7200%[16] - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without changes, while the U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3% in Q2, surpassing expectations[8][9] Financial Market Performance - The bond market experienced a net cash injection of 158.5 billion yuan on July 30, following a 3,090 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation by the central bank[12] - The weighted average interest rates for various repo transactions showed a downward trend, with DR001 and DR007 rates falling to 1.315% and 1.518%, respectively[13][14] Commodity Prices - International crude oil prices increased, with WTI rising by 1.36% to $70.99 per barrel, while natural gas prices fell by 1.89% to $3.016 per MMBtu[10] Bond Issuance and Trading - The bond auction results indicated a competitive bidding environment, with the 1-year agricultural development bond receiving a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.3[18] - The convertible bond market saw a decline, with major indices dropping, and a total trading volume of 84.376 billion yuan, down by 5.53 billion yuan from the previous day[24]

第 1 頁 共 11 頁 v 1.1.1 | 3. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | 其他類別 (請註明) | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 否 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | N/A | 說明 | 未指定 | | | | 2. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | B | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | N/A | 說明 | B類普通股 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | 面值 | | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 1,000,000,000 USD | | | 0.0001 | USD | | 100,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | USD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 1,000,000,000 US ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the express delivery industry in China, particularly focusing on the recent "anti-involution" policies and their impact on pricing and competition in regions like Yiwu and Guangdong [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Price Increases**: Recent data indicates that express delivery prices in Yiwu and Guangdong have increased, with Yiwu's 0.3 kg regular item price rising by approximately 0.05 CNY compared to June, and Guangdong's 0.1 kg special item price increasing by 0.05 to 0.10 CNY [1][3]. - **Government Intervention**: The State Post Bureau has held meetings to address the issue of cutthroat competition, urging companies to stabilize their networks. Guangdong's drug administration has mandated price increases starting August 1, aligning with Yiwu's standards [2][3]. - **Historical Policy Review**: The effectiveness of past anti-involution policies is reviewed, noting that while the 2021 policies successfully raised industry price levels, the 2023 and 2024 price increases have only provided temporary support due to previous intense competition and cost pressures during the pandemic [1][5][6]. - **Profitability Pressure**: The current price competition is intensifying, with special pricing policies lowering average prices. Although headquarters are gaining more volume, this has led to reduced delivery fees for outlets, increasing operational pressure on both headquarters and franchisees, resulting in a decline in per-package profit [1][7][8]. Additional Important Content - **Future Profit Elasticity**: If significant price increases can be achieved, the profit elasticity for e-commerce express delivery companies will notably increase. For instance, under a hypothetical price increase of 3% to 10%, companies like Zhongtong and Yuantong could see profit elasticity ranging from 10% to 34% and 18% to 60%, respectively [9]. - **Demand Forecast**: The overall demand for e-commerce express delivery is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 15% in the near future. The anti-involution policies are anticipated to stabilize prices, potentially reducing the intensity of competition in the latter half of the year [10]. - **Long-term Competition Dynamics**: While competition is expected to persist, stronger network capabilities among leading mid-tier companies will likely enhance their competitive advantages. Attention should also be given to improvements in last-mile efficiency and the development of autonomous delivery vehicles [10].

Summary of Conference Call on Express Delivery Industry in Guangdong Province Industry Overview - The express delivery industry in Guangdong Province is experiencing a collective price increase among major companies such as Zhongtong, Yuantong, and Yunda, driven by rising costs and upcoming social insurance policies [1][25]. - The average daily express delivery volume in Guangdong Province is 129 million packages, with significant contributions from Guangzhou (60 million), Shenzhen (35 million), and Jieyang (30 million) [2][20]. Key Points and Arguments Price Adjustments - Major express companies have raised their minimum prices to above 1.4 yuan per kilogram, with a 15-day price lock period to stabilize the market [1][6]. - Zhongtong's minimum price increased from 1.48 yuan to 1.4 yuan, while Yuantong's rose from 1.45 yuan to 1.4 yuan [9][30]. - The price adjustments are expected to last until the end of the year, with potential for a new price war in 2026, particularly for packages weighing between 0.4 to 3 kilograms [34]. Market Dynamics - Different companies are adopting varied strategies in response to the price hikes. For instance, Yuantong has canceled its excess return policy to enhance profitability, as small packages constitute a significant portion of its business [7][8]. - The price increase may lead to a shift in e-commerce logistics, with manufacturers potentially relocating warehouses to lower-cost regions like Hebei and Henan [1][18]. Regulatory Oversight - The State Post Bureau has established supervisory groups to monitor compliance with the new pricing policies, focusing on data analysis rather than extensive on-site inspections [12][13]. - The regulatory framework aims to prevent price gouging and ensure fair competition among express delivery brands [12]. Competitive Landscape - The competition is expected to intensify in the higher weight segments (above 0.3 kg) during the price lock period, despite the minimum price regulations for lighter packages [11][16]. - The express delivery market is projected to grow significantly, with an expected daily volume of 560 million packages by 2025, indicating a robust demand for logistics services [26][27]. Additional Important Insights - The price differences among companies are minimal, which may limit the potential for significant profit margins and complicate market dynamics [14][30]. - The ongoing price adjustments are seen as a necessary step to prepare for the implementation of new social insurance policies, which could further impact operational costs [25][34]. - The potential for market consolidation exists, but the current growth rate and capacity constraints suggest that no single brand will dominate the market [26][27]. Conclusion - The express delivery industry in Guangdong is undergoing significant changes due to price adjustments and regulatory oversight, with implications for market competition and logistics strategies. The expected growth in delivery volume presents both opportunities and challenges for the companies involved.

Summary of Conference Call on the Express Delivery Industry Industry Overview - The express delivery industry is facing multiple challenges including intensified market competition, the influence of e-commerce platforms, and regulatory pressures, leading to a pronounced issue of overcapacity [1][2] - Technological advancements and improvements in transportation efficiency are further driving down prices, resulting in reduced cost and brand premium differences among companies, making price competition the primary strategy [1][2] Core Points and Arguments - The regulatory framework aims to alleviate cash flow pressures on franchisees, stabilize employment, enhance service satisfaction, and address issues like illegal charges in rural delivery [1][2] - The "anti-involution" policy is designed to stabilize the competitive baseline of the industry, preventing competition below cost and improving service quality, although it is not expected to change the market structure significantly [1][3] - Price increases have a significant impact on the profitability elasticity of listed companies, but the effects vary by region and customer tier, making it difficult to generalize price increases across the board [1][6] - Major express delivery companies such as Shentong, Yunda, YTO, and ZTO have room for improvement in EPS, but volatility may increase due to recent price increases [1][7] Important but Overlooked Content - The anti-involution policy has positive implications for investors, but the long-term stability of profitability and valuation improvements are limited [4] - The impact of price increases on overall network performance varies; for instance, a price increase of 0.8 to 0.9 yuan per kilogram may have limited overall network impact (15%-20% of the national average) [4] - The express delivery industry is currently experiencing a high concentration level (CR8 at approximately 85%), indicating a clear oligopoly effect, which suggests that while policies may not alter market dynamics, they will influence the competitive baseline [3] - The success of price increases depends on specific conditions, including the need for reasonable profitability and income levels as desired by regulators [5] Future Market Expectations - Market expectations in the coming months will hinge on the implementation of price increases, including specific regions, magnitude, and sustainability [8] - As the industry enters a peak season, the early initiation of price increases in 2025 suggests that further related policies may emerge, likely serving as positive catalysts for the market [8]