证券研究报告 | 行业专题研究 gszqdatemark 2025 08 17 年 月 日 交通运输 快递反内卷：自上而下，预计具备扩散效应和持续性 自上而下，搭建邮管局监督执法、快递企业为推进主体的反内卷体系。 2025 年 7 月 1 日中央财经委员会第六次会议强调依法依规治理企业低 价无序竞争；7 月 24 日，《中华人民共和国价格法修正草案（征求意见 稿）》进一步完善低价倾销的认定标准，治理"内卷式"竞争。作为响 应，国家邮政局先后于 7 月 8 日和 7 月 29 日召开党组会议和通达系 等快递企业座谈会，旗帜鲜明反对"内卷式"竞争；地方邮政局亦跟进 反内卷工作。本轮快递反内卷，一方面强调了快递企业作为反内卷的 主体，一方面强调了国家和地方邮管局的监管职责和执法能力，双管 齐下。 反内卷初步成果：广东快递底价提升。根据南方都市报，8 月 4 日起， 广东省快递底价整体上调 0.4 元/票，均价涨至 1.4 元以上，每增加 0.1kg 价格提高 0.1 元/kg；并设置 15 天锁盘期，避免期间互抢客户。 广东提价具有示范效应，预计将向其他地区扩散。广东作为快递业务 量占比较高的地区，2017 年以来 ...

以下文章来源于冰川思享号 ，作者陈白bot 冰川思享号 . 汇聚思想，分享锐见 可以预见的是，随着快递物流成本上升、即时零售抢占"最后一公里"，传统电商行业，已经来到了一个新的临界点时刻。 但此刻更值得追问的问题是，多年已经习惯"包邮"的消费者们，未来能否接受一个为快递买单付费的新阶段？ 谁来买单 首先，最紧迫也最多人关注的现实问题是，这上涨的每单0.4元的快递成本最终将由谁来承担？答案是复杂的，它不会由单一环节凭空吸收，而是在整个电 商生态链中进行传导和分摊。 当资本市场不愿意再为亏损换市场的故事买单，快递巨头们必须向投资者证明，自己具备可持续的盈利能力。 文 ｜ 陈白 来源｜ 冰川思享号（ID：icereview） 封面来源 ｜ Pixabay 当主打电商"最后一公里"的外卖正在如火如荼开打价格战的时候，早就打了多年价格战的快递业，却来到了涨价的时刻。 据南方都市报报道，8月4日起，广东省快递底价整体上调0.4元/票，单票均价涨至1.4元以上，按照有关部门要求，各家均不得低于1.4元成本价揽收，否则 将遭受重罚。8月5日起，通达系（申通、圆通、中通、韵达）已开始执行涨价。各品牌则纷纷借坡下驴，将单票底价涨 ...

Core Insights - In July, China's e-commerce logistics index reached a new high of 112.0 points, increasing by 0.2 points from the previous month, driven by rising transaction volumes on e-commerce platforms and efficient logistics operations [1] - The total business volume index for e-commerce logistics also hit a record high of 130.9 points, up by 0.1 points from the previous month, indicating robust growth in logistics activities [1] E-commerce Growth Factors - The booming e-commerce consumption in rural areas has significantly contributed to the rise in the e-commerce logistics index, with the rural e-commerce logistics business volume index reaching 131.5 points, an increase of 1.1 points from the previous month [2][3] - All regions in the country saw an increase in rural e-commerce logistics business volume, with the central region experiencing the highest growth of 1.7 points [3] Market Dynamics - Unlike previous years, the e-commerce logistics market in July did not slow down after mid-year promotional activities, as consumer spending policies continued to stimulate demand [4] - The release of 138 billion yuan in national subsidies has enhanced consumer confidence and spending, further driving e-commerce logistics demand [4] Seasonal Trends - High temperatures have fueled the "summer economy," with notable sales increases in categories such as medical supplies, sunscreen, clothing, and beverages, alongside a rise in educational products due to the upcoming school season [5] - The demand for e-commerce logistics is expected to maintain growth momentum as the summer shopping season and back-to-school period approach [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent price increase in the express delivery industry in Guangdong, which is seen as a response to the ongoing price war and declining average prices in the sector. The price adjustment is expected to have significant implications for the market dynamics and competition among delivery companies [4][6]. Group 1: Price Increase and Market Dynamics - Guangdong's express delivery base price was raised to 1.4 yuan per ticket, marking a 40% increase, aimed at curbing low-price competition and ensuring market stability [4][6]. - The express delivery sector in Guangdong is crucial, accounting for approximately 25% of the national total, with 234.3 billion packages sent in the first half of the year [4][6]. - Despite the price increase, the underlying issues of fierce competition and price wars in the express delivery industry remain unresolved [4][6]. Group 2: Historical Price Trends - The average price per express delivery ticket in China dropped from 8.14 yuan to 7.52 yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decline of 7.7% [6]. - Over the past five years, the express delivery industry has experienced a continuous decline in average ticket prices, with a total decrease of 32% [11][22]. - The express delivery market has seen a tenfold increase in volume over the past decade, with a projected 1.758 billion packages to be delivered in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.5% [22][29]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The express delivery industry is characterized by intense competition, with major players struggling to establish a stable market structure. The top eight companies hold 85.2% of the market share, a modest increase of 2.7% over five years [19][22]. - The market remains fragmented, with new entrants and investments continuing to flood in, exacerbating the price competition [26][29]. - The industry's growth is heavily tied to the e-commerce sector, which drives demand for delivery services, further intensifying competition among providers [26][29]. Group 4: Investment and Operational Challenges - Companies in the express delivery sector are investing heavily in fixed assets, such as sorting facilities and transportation vehicles, often outpacing revenue growth [27][29]. - The fixed asset growth for companies like YTO Express has been significantly higher than revenue growth, indicating a focus on capacity expansion despite ongoing price wars [27][29]. - The article suggests that as long as the express delivery volume continues to grow rapidly, the price wars are unlikely to cease, creating a challenging environment for profitability [29].

Group 1 - Kangji Medical (09997) resumed trading with a nearly 1% increase, announcing a privatization agreement with Knight Bidco Limited, which will make Kangji a wholly-owned subsidiary and delist from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after completion [1] - Tencent Music (01698) opened high with over a 15% increase, reporting a 30% year-on-year increase in adjusted net profit for Q2 ending June 30, 2025, driven by high-quality growth in its online music business [1] - Mingyuan Cloud (00909) opened over 2% higher, announcing a cash acquisition of 100% equity in ASIOT Co., Ltd. for 700 million yen by its subsidiary MytePro Japan [1] Group 2 - Yuedu Group (00772) surged over 15%, reporting a 68.5% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of the year, with strong performance in IP for premium films and animations, and significant growth in the emerging short drama sector [2] - Minmetals Resources (01208) rose over 9%, with net profit increasing 15 times year-on-year, attributed to higher copper production and rising prices of copper, gold, silver, and zinc [2] - Beihai Kangcheng-B (01228) increased over 31%, announcing a strategic cooperation agreement with Baiyang Pharmaceutical for exclusive commercial services in promoting several products in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau [2] Group 3 - Zhonghui Biotech-B (02627) surged over 25%, as its vaccine product was included in the preliminary review list of the national commercial health insurance innovative drug catalog [2] - Gilead Sciences-B (01672) rose over 5%, announcing promising efficacy results for its candidate drug ASC47 in combination with teriparatide for obesity treatment in diet-induced obesity mouse studies [3] - Dongying Travel (06882) fell over 9%, issuing a profit warning with expected net profit of approximately 6 million HKD for the first half of 2025, down about 82% from 34 million HKD in the same period last year [3] Group 4 - Kodak (KODK.US) dropped 19.91% after reporting a shift from profit to loss in Q2, raising concerns about its ability to execute critical financing measures [4] - Niu Technologies (NIU.US) rose 11.69%, reporting a turnaround to profitability in Q2 and projecting Q3 revenue between 1.433 billion to 1.638 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 40% to 60% [4] - Huya (HUYA.US) increased by 4.53%, preparing to release its financial report, with a strong growth trajectory in gaming-related services [4] Group 5 - ON Running (ONON.US) rose 8.95%, reporting a 32% year-on-year increase in Q2 sales and projecting annual net sales of at least 2.91 billion Swiss francs, exceeding previous expectations [6] - Micron Technology (MU.US) increased by 3.26%, significantly raising its Q4 fiscal year 2025 revenue guidance to between 11.1 billion to 11.3 billion USD, with gross margin guidance improved to 44% to 45% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in express delivery base prices in Guangdong and Yiwu reflects concerns over the intense competition and low profitability in the express delivery industry, which has led to a downward trend in per-package revenue for major companies [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - Starting from August 4, the base price for express delivery in Guangdong has been raised by 0.4 yuan per package, bringing the average price to over 1.4 yuan [1]. - Yiwu also raised its express delivery base price by 0.1 yuan to 1.2 yuan starting July 18 [1]. - The overall express delivery costs have increased by approximately 0.4 yuan, although delivery personnel have not yet received news of a corresponding increase in their compensation [1]. Group 2: Revenue Trends - Major express companies, including Shentong, Yunda, Zhongtong, and Yunda, have seen a significant decline in per-package revenue, with figures for 2024 projected at 2.05 yuan, 2.3 yuan, 1.21 yuan, and 2.01 yuan respectively, representing a decrease of about 30% to 40% compared to 2019 [3]. - In June, Shentong and Yunda reported further declines in per-package revenue, dropping below the 2 yuan mark to 1.99 yuan and 1.91 yuan respectively, while Zhongtong decreased to 2.1 yuan [5]. - SF Express maintains a relatively stable per-package revenue of around 15 to 16 yuan, but has also experienced a decline of 11% to 14% compared to the previous year due to industry price wars [5][12]. Group 3: Delivery Challenges - The continuous decline in per-package revenue has led express companies to implement cost control measures, including reducing delivery fees for last-mile services [7]. - The delivery personnel face pressure to choose between home delivery and depositing packages at collection points, with a significant increase in the use of collection points, reaching a 72% entry rate in 2022 [11]. - Complaints regarding non-delivery to specified addresses have surged, with over 19,000 complaints related to this issue, highlighting the challenges in balancing delivery efficiency and service quality [11]. Group 4: Impact on Low-Cost Merchants - The recent price adjustments in express delivery services are expected to significantly impact low-cost merchants, as the low logistics cost is crucial for their survival [15]. - Merchants have indicated that a delivery cost exceeding 3 yuan is no longer sustainable for their profit margins, as the historical rate has been around 1 yuan for small packages [15].

Summary of ZTO Express Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: ZTO Express (ZTO US) - **Industry**: Air Freight & Logistics - **Market Cap**: USD 16,049 million - **Current Share Price**: USD 19.95 - **Target Price**: USD 25.00 (previously USD 22.00) with a 25% upside potential [5][28][30] Key Points and Arguments Pricing Environment - **Price Hikes**: The State Post Bureau (SPB) in Guangdong has mandated local express operators to raise floor prices by up to RMB 0.4 per parcel, setting a minimum price of RMB 1.4 per parcel [2] - **Historical Context**: Previous price hikes in the sector have led to significant market rallies, such as a 48% increase in September 2021 following collective fee increases by Tongda players [3] - **Market Reaction**: ZTO's H-share price has rebounded by 23% since mid-June, outperforming the Hang Seng Index, as the market anticipates positive impacts from the SPB's guidance [3] Financial Performance and Projections - **Earnings Estimates**: Net profits for ZTO are projected to increase by 1-4% from 2025 to 2027, with current estimates 16% above consensus [4] - **2Q25 Preview**: Expected revenue growth of 12% year-over-year, with net profits estimated at RMB 2.7 billion, slightly down from the previous year but 2% ahead of consensus [4][20] - **Volume and Pricing**: Anticipated parcel volume growth of 18% in 2025, with average selling price (ASP) expected to decline by 5% [22] Valuation and Market Position - **Valuation Metrics**: ZTO trades at a forward PE of 11.9x, lower than the average of 14.2x for A-share listed peers, indicating potential undervaluation [31] - **Market Share**: ZTO holds a 19% market share as of 1Q25, with expectations of regaining market share due to improved pricing conditions [31][33] Risks and Challenges - **Downside Risks**: Include weaker-than-expected volume growth, aggressive price competition, and potential regulatory changes that could increase operational costs [32] Additional Important Information - **Financial Ratios**: Projected ROE of 16.8% in 2025, with a dividend yield expected to rise to 4.6% [8][14] - **Cash Flow**: Positive cash flow from operations projected to increase, supporting a 50% dividend payout ratio from 2025 onwards [22] - **Analyst Ratings**: The recommendation remains a "Buy" with a raised target price reflecting confidence in the company's ability to navigate the evolving market landscape [5][28] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding ZTO Express, highlighting its pricing strategies, financial outlook, market position, and associated risks.

Group 1 - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index outperformed the three major US stock indices [1] - As of August 7, the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 0.95%, with notable gains from companies such as Hesai (+5.74%), ZTO Express (+3.91%), and Li Auto (+1.8%) [2] - The Magnificent 7 index of major US tech stocks increased by 0.56%, reaching a record closing high of 186.41 points [2] Group 2 - The US job market continues to weaken, with initial jobless claims rising to 226,000, exceeding expectations [6] - The US Labor Department reported a significant increase in continuing claims for unemployment benefits, reaching 1.97 million, the highest level since November 2021 [7] - The July employment report showed only 73,000 new jobs added, with downward revisions of 258,000 jobs for May and June combined [7] Group 3 - SoftBank's "Stargate" project is experiencing delays, with the company collaborating with Oracle and others to establish a data center [5] - The "Stargate" project, initially announced with a $500 billion investment for AI infrastructure, is facing skepticism regarding its funding capabilities [5]

Core Viewpoint - ZTO Express (ZTO.US) shares rose over 3% to $20.70 following a price increase in the express delivery sector in Guangdong Province, which has been confirmed by multiple industry insiders [1] Industry Summary - Starting from August 4, the base price for express delivery in Guangdong has been raised by 0.4 yuan per ticket, with the average price exceeding 1.4 yuan [1] - Companies are required to not charge below a cost price of 14 yuan for collection, with penalties for non-compliance [1] - The State Post Bureau held a meeting on July 29 to address issues such as "involution" competition and illegal charges in rural areas, aiming to maintain a healthy development of the industry [1] Company Summary - Zheshang Securities indicated that with the end of the off-peak season and the upcoming peak season in September, there is potential for broader price stabilization and recovery, which may alleviate pressure on franchise operations [1] - Recently, Shentong Express's acquisition of Daniao marks the beginning of resource consolidation in the express delivery industry under the national anti-involution policy [1] - The State Post Bureau encourages mergers and restructuring among express delivery companies, leading to a healthier industry structure and optimized competitive ecology, which may present sector-wide investment opportunities [1]

Group 1 - ZTO Express (ZTO.US) shares rose over 3% to $20.70 following a price increase in the express delivery sector in Guangdong Province, with the base price raised by 0.4 yuan per ticket, averaging above 1.4 yuan [1] - The National Postal Administration emphasized the need to address "involution" competition and illegal charges in rural areas during a meeting with express delivery companies, aiming to maintain a healthy industry development [1] - With the end of the off-peak season and the upcoming peak season in September, there is an expectation for broader price stabilization and recovery, which may alleviate pressure on franchise operators and improve performance in the express delivery sector [1] Group 2 - Recently, Shentong Express's acquisition of Daniao marks the beginning of resource consolidation in the express delivery industry under the national anti-involution policy, indicating a trend towards healthier industry structure and optimized competitive ecology [1] - The National Postal Administration encourages mergers and acquisitions among express delivery companies, which is expected to create sector-wide investment opportunities in the long term [1]