机构：东兴证券 研究员：曹奕丰 事件：公司发布2025 三季报，Q3 单季公司完成业务量95.73 亿件，同比增长9.8%，市场份额下降0.6pct 至19.4%。公司Q3 调整后净利润25.06 亿元，同比增长5.0%。 基于行业件量增速整体下降，公司略微下调业务量指引：Q3 公司业务量增速为9.8%，低于行业均值的 13.3%，市场份额下降0.6 pct 至19.4%。三季度行业反内卷趋势逐渐成型，推动行业从数量竞争转向高 质量发展，由于以价换量受到遏制，行业件量增速呈下降趋势。此外，今年双十一行业件量略低于预 期，行业件量增速从9 月的12.7%降至10 月的7.9%，降幅较为明显。公司基于行业趋势变化，下调了中 报给出的业务指引至全年382-387 亿件，对应同比增速12.3%-13.8%（原指引为388-401 亿件，对应业务 量同比增长14%-18%），对应Q4 单季业务量增速5.9%-11.1%。 反内卷带动单票收入同比转正：公司Q3 单票收入同比增长0.02 元（1.7%）至1.21 元/票，相比于Q1 和 Q2 的分别同比下降7.8%和4.6%，收入端有一定改善。从收入结构上看，单票激励增加 ...

规模效应领先，"同建共享"理念下形成全链路竞争优势。公司资产规模和结构均领先市场，在规模效应 下干线中转降本能力具有优势。同时公司秉承"同建共享"理念，绑定全网利益，积极推进"三网叠 加"、"驿站代收"、"末端直链"等措施全链路降本，服务质量行业领先推动产品分层，进而形成全链路 竞争优势，最终公司单票盈利远高于同行，"量本利"模型持续跑通。 投资建议：公司规模效应和单票盈利领先，随产品结构优化，全链路降本项目推进，单票盈利有望继续 与同行拉开差距。短期期待市占率回归带来估值修复，长期看好电商快递龙头管理优秀强者恒强。我们 预计公司2025-2027 年营业收入分别为488.66 亿元、551.26 亿元与611.78 亿元，归母净利润分别为96.87 亿元、111.08 亿元与122.29 亿元，2025-2027 年对应PE 分别为12.26 倍、10.69 倍、9.71 倍。首次覆盖， 给予"买入"评级。 风险提示：行业件量增速不及预期；快递价格战重启；成本管控不及预期；加盟商爆仓风险。 机构：财通证券 研究员：祝玉波 三大决策"省际班车"+"有偿派费"+"股份改革"实现弯道超车。 公司凭借对加盟快递商业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the tragic fire incident at Hong Kong's Tai Po Wang Fuk Court, which resulted in significant casualties and prompted the establishment of a relief fund by the Hong Kong government to assist affected residents [1] Company Actions - Zhongtong Express (02057) has donated 10 million HKD to the "Tai Po Wang Fuk Court Relief Fund," which will be used entirely for emergency rescue, transitional housing, supply of living materials, and post-disaster reconstruction for the affected residents [1] - The company expressed deep condolences to the victims and their families, and paid tribute to the firefighters, medical personnel, and volunteers involved in the rescue efforts [1] - Zhongtong Express committed to maintaining close communication with the Hong Kong government and collaborating with various sectors of society to support ongoing relief and reconstruction efforts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The fire incident at Hong Kong's Tai Po Wang Fuk Court has resulted in significant casualties, prompting the establishment of the "Tai Po Wang Fuk Court Assistance Fund" by the Hong Kong government to support affected residents and related efforts [1] Company Actions - Zhongtong Express (02057) has donated HKD 10 million to the assistance fund, with all funds allocated for emergency rescue, transitional housing, supply of living materials, and post-disaster reconstruction for the affected residents [1] - The company expressed deep condolences to the victims and their families, and paid high respect to the firefighters, medical personnel, and volunteers involved in the rescue efforts [1] - Zhongtong Express stated its commitment to maintaining close communication with the Hong Kong government and collaborating with various sectors of society to support ongoing assistance and reconstruction efforts [1]

Core Insights - The express delivery industry in Zhejiang is undergoing a profound transformation driven by technological innovation, integrating digital and physical economies [1] - Zhejiang serves as a model for high-quality development in the postal industry, showcasing practices that can be replicated nationwide [1] Group 1: Unmanned Delivery Vehicles - Unmanned delivery vehicles have significantly reduced operational costs, with daily electricity expenses dropping from 50 yuan to 15 yuan, leading to a 70% increase in efficiency at the Tonglu sorting center [2] - The introduction of unmanned vehicles allows for earlier dispatch of deliveries, improving overall delivery efficiency and increasing the proportion of home deliveries by over 30% [2] - In Jinhua, 34 unmanned vehicles have been deployed, covering over 100,000 kilometers and transporting more than 1 million items, with plans to expand the fleet to over 200 vehicles by 2026 [3] Group 2: Integrated Logistics Solutions - The "Rail + Low Air" logistics model in Jinhua combines drone and rail transport, enhancing delivery speed by over 50% and reducing costs by approximately 35% [4] - This innovative logistics network allows for same-day delivery of fresh produce, with a total transit time of under one hour for certain routes [4][5] - The integration of rail and drone services is set to expand, with plans for additional routes and improved service coverage [5] Group 3: Drone Delivery Innovations - Drones are being utilized to solve last-mile delivery challenges in mountainous areas, significantly reducing delivery times from 90 minutes to just 15 minutes [7] - The establishment of a drone delivery network includes a command center and multiple takeoff and landing sites, covering key areas and enhancing service efficiency [8] - Drones are also being used for emergency services, such as delivering firefighting supplies, showcasing their versatility beyond traditional logistics [8] Group 4: Industry Growth and Statistics - The express delivery market in China is projected to handle approximately 1.75 trillion packages in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 21.5% [10] - Zhejiang province accounts for 18.5% of the national express delivery volume, with a robust network of over 30,000 service points and 930 logistics routes [10] - The province has seen significant advancements in smart logistics and regulatory frameworks, positioning itself as a leader in the express delivery sector [11] Group 5: Cultural and Historical Context - Tonglu is recognized as the birthplace of China's private express delivery industry, with a rich history of entrepreneurial spirit and innovation [9] - The local government and industry leaders are fostering a collaborative environment to enhance logistics capabilities and workforce development [12][13] - The integration of logistics with urban development aims to create a sustainable ecosystem that benefits both the industry and local communities [13]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [2][51]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the express delivery industry, with a strong focus on scale and operational efficiency. It has implemented key strategies such as inter-provincial transportation, paid delivery fees, and shareholding reforms to enhance its competitive edge [9][13]. - The company has maintained a robust market share, with a 19.4% market share as of Q3 2025, reflecting a slight increase from 19.2% in H1 2025. The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.9% in net profit from 2021 to 2024 [9][16]. - The report forecasts significant revenue growth, projecting revenues of 48.87 billion yuan, 55.13 billion yuan, and 61.18 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, alongside net profits of 9.69 billion yuan, 11.11 billion yuan, and 12.23 billion yuan for the same years [51]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is recognized as a leading franchise express delivery service provider, achieving steady growth through strategic initiatives that have allowed it to outperform competitors [10][13]. - Key decisions such as the introduction of inter-provincial transportation and paid delivery fees have been pivotal in establishing the company as a market leader since 2016 [9][13]. Market Position and Performance - The company has a leading market share in the express delivery sector, with a 2025Q3 market share of 19.4%, up from 19.2% in H1 2025. The CAGR for express delivery volume from 2013 to 2024 was 37.0% [9][16]. - The company has demonstrated resilience in revenue growth, achieving a total revenue of 34.59 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.3% [18]. Financial Projections - The report provides detailed financial forecasts, estimating revenues of 48.87 billion yuan, 55.13 billion yuan, and 61.18 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 9.69 billion yuan, 11.11 billion yuan, and 12.23 billion yuan [51][50]. Competitive Advantages - The company benefits from significant scale effects and a comprehensive cost-reduction strategy, which positions it favorably against competitors. The report highlights the company's ability to maintain a lower per-package cost compared to peers, with a projected cost of 0.60 yuan per package in Q3 2025 [30][45]. - The company's focus on service quality and operational efficiency has allowed it to achieve higher average delivery prices compared to competitors, with an average terminal price of 2.43 yuan in November 2023 [41][44]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the company's strong management and operational capabilities, projecting continued market share expansion and profitability in the long term. The anticipated price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 12.26, 10.69, and 9.71, respectively [51][52].

Summary of ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) - **Industry**: Logistics and Express Delivery Key Points Discussed 1. Industry Outlook - ZTO expects the industry order volume to grow at a high-single-digit percentage in 2026, with ZTO anticipated to outperform the industry [1] - For 4Q25, ZTO expects profits to stabilize year-over-year, driven by an increase in Average Selling Price (ASP) due to anti-involution policies [1] 2. Competitive Landscape - The industry is shifting towards high-quality development, benefiting leading players like ZTO due to cost advantages and a more high-quality customer base [2] - ZTO's market share in reverse parcels is approximately 23%, with the top three players holding 70% of the market [2] 3. Automation and Cost Efficiency - ZTO has over 800 outlets utilizing autonomous vehicles, with more than 3,000 vehicles in operation [3] - The deployment of autonomous vehicles is expected to reduce the cost per parcel by 7-8 cents, with each vehicle capable of carrying hundreds of parcels and making three trips a day [3] - The price of autonomous vehicles has decreased by 30-40% over the past year [3] 4. Shareholder Returns - ZTO has distributed RMB 16 billion to shareholders over the past 1.5 years, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 40% [4] - There is potential for increased dividends and buybacks in the future due to decreasing capital expenditures [4] 5. ASP Trends - The ASP increased by 4 cents month-over-month in August and by 3 cents in September, with the upward trend continuing into 4Q [15] - The number of low-value parcels has decreased due to the anti-involution policy, leading to a healthier parcel structure [15] 6. Capacity and Volume - The average daily capacity is currently 150 million parcels, with a utilization rate of approximately 80% [11] - During peak season next year, capacity can reach 160-170 million parcels [11] - ZTO handles approximately 7 million reverse parcels daily in 4Q, with around 30 million daily reverse parcels across major eCommerce platforms [10] 7. Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for ZTO are as follows: - 2025E: RMB 49.037 billion - 2026E: RMB 54.995 billion - 2027E: RMB 59.290 billion [12] - The company expects a gross margin of 25.8% in 2025E and 26.4% in 2026E [12] 8. Investment Rating - Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on ZTO with a 12-month price target of US$23/HK$179, indicating an upside potential of 12% [4][16] - Key risks include slower-than-expected industry growth, intensified competition, and execution risks in business operations [14] Additional Insights - The implementation of anti-involution policies is strong, which may impact the overall market dynamics [5] - The focus on network healthiness and income levels of couriers is being emphasized by regulators [9] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding ZTO Express, highlighting the company's strategic outlook, competitive advantages, and financial projections.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that ZTO Express has shown positive performance in Q3 2025, with revenue and adjusted net profit growth, and the company is expected to continue improving in Q4 2025 [1][2] - In Q3 2025, ZTO Express achieved operating revenue of 11.865 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%, and an adjusted net profit of 2.506 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5% [1] - The company’s business volume reached 9.573 billion pieces in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, indicating a continuation of growth momentum [1] Group 2 - The express delivery industry is experiencing a downward trend in growth rates, with significant differentiation among companies; ZTO Express is expected to regain market share and profit amid this industry restructuring [1] - In October 2025, the express delivery industry saw a year-on-year business volume growth of 7.9%, with varying growth rates among companies: YTO (+12.8%) > Shentong (7.39%) > Yunda (-5.11%) [1] - The company’s long-term efficiency improvements and industry optimization are expected to enhance its market share and profitability, supported by a solid asset base and scale barriers [1] Group 3 - The company has raised its profit forecast for ZTO Express, expecting adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 to be 9.540 billion, 10.149 billion, and 11.399 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -6%, 6%, and 12% [2] - The price of express delivery services has increased nationally, contributing to the improvement in business volume and profits for the company [2] - The company maintains a "buy" rating with projected PE ratios of 12x, 11x, and 10x for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongtong Express reported its Q3 2025 financial performance, showing steady revenue growth and stable market share despite a competitive environment [1] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached 11.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.1% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.52 billion yuan, up 5.2% year-on-year, while adjusted net profit was 2.51 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.0% increase [1] Operational Highlights - The express delivery industry maintained stable growth, with Zhongtong Express achieving a volume of 9.6 billion parcels in Q3, a 9.8% year-on-year increase [1] - The company's single ticket revenue increased by 0.02 yuan, contributing to steady revenue growth [1] - The growth rate of the scattered order business approached 50% year-on-year [1] Cost Management - Q3 operating costs amounted to 8.91 billion yuan, a 21.4% increase year-on-year, with line haul transportation costs decreasing by 2.8% to 3.30 billion yuan [1] - Sorting center operating costs rose by 7.6% to 2.39 billion yuan, while unit transfer transportation costs continued to decline [1] - The company experienced a significant increase in other costs, which reached 2.87 billion yuan, up 115.9% year-on-year [1] Future Outlook - The company is expected to focus on service quality, business scale, and profitability balance, with projected net profits of 9.28 billion yuan, 10.09 billion yuan, and 10.91 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 5.3%, 8.7%, and 8.1% respectively [2] - The current PE valuation levels for 2025-2027 are 11.8X, 10.8X, and 10.0X, indicating a relatively low valuation [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057.HK) [2][5] Core Views - The company reported a Q3 business volume of 9.573 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, while its market share decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 19.4% [3] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 was 2.506 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [3] - The company has slightly lowered its business volume guidance for the year to 38.2-38.7 billion pieces, corresponding to a year-on-year growth of 12.3%-13.8% [3] - The trend of "anti-involution" in the industry is shifting competition from quantity to quality, leading to a decline in overall business volume growth [3] - The single ticket revenue increased by 0.02 yuan (1.7%) to 1.21 yuan per ticket in Q3, showing improvement compared to previous quarters [4] - The single ticket core cost decreased by 0.04 yuan, with transportation costs dropping from 0.39 yuan to 0.34 yuan [4] - The company’s parcel business grew over 50% year-on-year, contributing positively to single ticket revenue and costs [5] - Single ticket profitability has started to recover, with adjusted net profit per ticket increasing from 0.21 yuan in Q2 to 0.26 yuan in Q3 [5] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 9.06 billion, 10.22 billion, and 11.53 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13.0X, 11.5X, and 10.2X [5] Summary by Sections Business Performance - Q3 business volume reached 9.573 billion pieces, a 9.8% increase year-on-year, but market share fell to 19.4% [3] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 was 2.506 billion yuan, up 5.0% year-on-year [3] Revenue and Costs - Single ticket revenue rose by 1.7% to 1.21 yuan, with a notable improvement from previous quarters [4] - Single ticket core cost decreased by 0.04 yuan, with transportation costs declining significantly [4] Growth and Profitability - The company’s parcel business saw over 50% growth year-on-year, enhancing overall revenue [5] - Single ticket profitability improved, indicating a positive trend in profit recovery [5] Financial Projections - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 9.06 billion, 10.22 billion, and 11.53 billion yuan, with decreasing PE ratios [5]