证 券 研 究 报 告 交通运输行业周报（20250728-20250803） 一、聚焦：继续强调"反内卷"下电商快递投资机会 1、 以史为鉴："反内卷"在快递行业是否有效且能否持续推进？ 1）从 21 年经验看，义乌地区率先涨价并逐步扩散。根据邮管局数据计算，21 年 9 月义乌地区单票价格 2.94 元，环比 8 月 2.64 元上涨 0.3 元，价格同比由 8 月的-16%迅速收窄至-1%；此后，在 21 年四季度，价格仍表现坚挺，10 月 义乌地区单票收入同比回正至+2%，11-12 月同比+8%，2022 年 1-8 月依然保 持同比正增。而从全国范围看，申通、韵达、圆通单票收入环比持续提升，可 推测涨价落地并逐步扩散。21 年 9 月三家环比分别上涨 0.16、0.09 和 0.15 元， 到 11 月三家相较于 8 月分别上涨 0.51、0.33、0.46 元（当中包含旺季季节性 涨幅）。同比看，圆通 21 年 8 月实现单票同比转正，21 年 11 月三家均实现价 格同比正增。2）2021 年-22 年的经验看，行业具备价格-盈利提升的传导潜力。 最为显著的，如圆通从 21Q3 的单票扣非净利 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - Dongyue Group (00189) saw a rise of over 1%, with expectations for increased refrigerant demand as the new cooling season begins, despite a seasonal decline in August [1] - Hong Kong's banking stocks experienced a rally, with Agricultural Bank (01288) up over 2%, and other banks like ICBC (01398) and China Merchants Bank (03968) also gaining over 1%. The overall asset quality of listed banks remains stable, and profit growth is expected to continue [1] - In the gold sector, Lingbao Gold (03330) rose over 3%, with other companies like Chifeng Jilong Gold (06693) and Shandong Gold (01787) also seeing significant gains, driven by lower-than-expected U.S. job growth data which increased interest in gold [3] Group 2: Company Announcements - InnoCare (02577) surged over 8% after being named the only Chinese chip company in NVIDIA's 800VDC power architecture collaboration, indicating a significant partnership in AI data centers [2] - Derun Shipping (02510) announced a profit forecast of approximately $180 million to $200 million for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing a 220% to 255% increase compared to the previous year [2] - China Eastern Education (00667) reported an expected profit increase of no less than 45% for the first half of the year, driven by a 7% increase in new student registrations and effective cost control [3] Group 3: Financial Results - Amazon (AMZN.US) reported second-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations, with AWS revenue growing 17% year-over-year, but the third-quarter profit guidance fell short of market expectations [5] - Coinbase (COIN.US) saw a 16.7% drop after reporting second-quarter revenue of $1.5 billion, which was below analyst expectations, despite a significant profit increase due to investments [5] - Moderna (MRNA.US) experienced a decline of over 10% due to delays in vaccine shipments, leading to a downward revision of its revenue forecast for 2025 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the express delivery industry [11] Core Insights - The express delivery industry, although not listed among the top ten "anti-involution" sectors, has shown strong stock performance and exceeded expectations in July, reflecting a "latecomer advantage" [2][6] - The industry's characteristics of "stabilizing employment," "stabilizing growth," and "price increase acceptance" drive its performance [2][6] Summary by Sections Stabilizing Employment - The express delivery sector is a significant reservoir for employment, with over 4 million direct workers in 2024, highlighting its role in the flexible employment market [19][21] - The low social security coverage for delivery workers emphasizes the importance of the sector in stabilizing employment [22] Stabilizing Growth - The profitability of express delivery headquarters is under pressure, with average monthly prices dropping to around 2 yuan, leading to intensified price competition [25][26] - The report notes that the pressure on franchise operators is at historical highs, with some facing cash flow issues, necessitating a stable operational environment [26] Price Increase Acceptance - The average cost rate for online shopping express delivery is approximately 5.2%, indicating a relatively high acceptance of price increases among e-commerce customers [34][39] - The report suggests that the "anti-involution" measures could positively impact the quality of service and operational stability in the express delivery industry [34]

此次监管行动与2021年"反内卷"路径高度相似。2021年政策推动下，通达系单票价格提升约0.6元，圆通单票利润环比暴涨0.16元，净利润同比增202%。 此外，在近日修订的《价格法》和《反不正当竞争法》，其中明确禁止低于成本价倾销及强制低价销售，为行业价格托底提供法律支撑。 智通财经8月1日讯（编辑 胡家荣）受益于反内卷热度，港股快递相关个股走强。截至发稿，中通快递-W(02057.HK)涨8.43%，海丰国际(01308.HK)涨 2.55%、京东物流(02618.HK)涨2.05%。 | 注：快递相关个股的表现 | | --- | 政策定调：监管重拳整治"内卷式"竞争 国家邮政局近期密集召开会议，明确要求快递企业"旗帜鲜明反对内卷式竞争"，整治末端服务质量问题，并强调企业总部需履行主体责任，创新经营模式， 保障基层网点稳定与农村服务可持续性。 华源证券还指出，7-8月淡季局部提价后，9月旺季或迎来全国性价格修复。根据此前测算，单票提价0.1元可显著改善盈利，申通、韵达利润弹性高达82%和 47%。 机构如何看待快递行业？ 国信证券指出，除了政策面提振快递行业之外，目前无人物流车开始进入规模化商用阶段，快 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示概不會就本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴 該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 根據不同投票權架構，我們的股本包括A類普通股及B類普通股。對於需要股東投票的所有事 項，A類普通股持有人每股可投1票，而B類普通股持有人則每股可投10票。股東及有意投資者 務請留意投資不同投票權架構公司的潛在風險。我們的美國存託股（每股美國存託股代表一股A 類普通股）於美國紐約證券交易所上市，代碼為ZTO。 （股份代號：2057） 董事會會議召開日期 中通快遞（開曼）有限公司（「本公司」）董事會（「董事會」）謹此宣佈，董事會將於 2025年8月19日（星期二）（北京時間）舉行董事會會議，以（其中包括）批准(i)本公 司截至2025年6月30日止第二季度的未經審計財務業績及其發佈；及(ii)本公司截 至2025年6月30日止的未經審計中期業績及其發佈。 本公司將於2025年8月20日（星期三）（北京時間）於香港聯合交易所有限公司開市 前發佈本公司截至2025年6月30日止第二季度及截至2025年6月30日止 ...

金融界7月31日消息，上证指数低开低走，中证香港100工业指数 (H100工业，L11182)报162.21点。 数据统计显示，中证香港100工业指数近一个月上涨21.24%，近三个月上涨25.30%，年至今上涨 19.53%。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期 调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对指数进行临时调整。当对应的母指数调整样本时， 行业指数样本将相应调整。当样本公司有特殊事件发生，导致其行业归属发生变更时，将对指数进行相 应调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的处理，参照 计算与维护细则处理。 本文源自：金融界 作者：行情君 据了解，中证香港100行业指数系列将中证香港100指数样本按中证行业分类标准进行分类，再以各自行 业全部证券作为对应行业指数的样本。该指数以2004年12月31日为基日，以1000.0点为基点。 从中证香港100工业指数持仓的市场板块来看，香港证券交易所占比100.00%。 从 ...

Core Viewpoint - ZTO Express (02057) has seen a nearly 4% increase in stock price, currently trading at 161.9 HKD with a transaction volume of 107 million HKD, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company [1]. Industry Summary - The State Post Bureau held a meeting on July 29 to address issues of "involution" competition within the express delivery industry, focusing on the regulation of illegal charges in rural areas and promoting high-quality development [1]. - Guosen Securities believes that under the guidance of policies aimed at "anti-involution" and high-quality development, the chaotic competition in the express delivery industry is expected to improve marginally, leading to a new balance among regulation, competition, profitability, and quality [1]. - The price and profitability performance of the industry during the peak season in the fourth quarter of this year is still anticipated to be promising [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the express delivery industry [8]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is expected to experience a "de-involution" phase, with significant policy catalysts anticipated in the upcoming months. The transition from the off-peak to peak season is expected to enhance the pricing power of express companies [2][11]. - The pricing increase duration is projected to be between 2 to 4 months, with a price increase of 0.06 to 0.30 yuan per ticket expected during the peak season. The profit per ticket is anticipated to improve by 0.01 to 0.10 yuan in Q4 [2][11]. - The average profit elasticity for e-commerce express delivery is expected to reach double digits, with second-tier express companies showing even more significant profit elasticity [2][11]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The report discusses the recent meeting of the State Post Bureau, which emphasized the need to combat "involution" in the express delivery sector. It addresses three main questions: the timing and sustainability of the current "de-involution," the profit elasticity for core enterprises, and the tools available for this process [6]. Pricing Dynamics - The report analyzes historical pricing trends, indicating that the current "de-involution" phase may be catalyzed by policy changes, with pricing increases expected to last longer than in 2024 but shorter than in 2021. The report references past data to illustrate potential outcomes [11][20]. Profit Elasticity - The report provides a detailed analysis of profit elasticity for major express companies, projecting that if the industry begins to raise prices in August and continues until December, the net profit for companies like Zhongtong, Yunda, and Shentong could reach 95.8 billion, 40.6 billion, and 17.4 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding profit elasticities of 6.5%, 12.7%, and 27.9% [20][21]. Tools for "De-involution" - The report identifies two main strategies for achieving "de-involution": regulatory measures to curb price wars and encouraging mergers and acquisitions among leading companies to optimize competition. The acquisition of Danbird Logistics by Shentong Express is highlighted as a significant step towards improving market dynamics [25][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively seizing opportunities presented by the "de-involution" phase, recommending companies such as YTO Express, Shentong Express, Zhongtong Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the express delivery industry [1] Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing a trend of "anti-involution," leading to a revaluation of its value [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of regulatory actions in stabilizing the industry and improving profitability [3] - Short-term price improvements are expected, with potential for further increases during peak seasons [3] Summary by Sections 1. Review of 2021's "Anti-Involution" - In 2021, the express delivery industry saw a significant policy push to protect courier rights, leading to price increases and improved profitability [3][19] - The average price per ticket for the "Tongda" system increased by approximately 0.6 yuan from the low point in August 2021 to January 2022 [3] - By Q4 2021, YTO Express reported a net profit of 1.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 202% [3] 2. Current Industry Dynamics - After 2023, the industry has re-entered a phase of price competition due to increased capacity and market share strategies, leading to profitability nearing historical lows [3][39] - The National Postal Administration has clearly opposed "involution-style" competition, indicating a regulatory environment similar to that of 2021 [3][65] - The report suggests monitoring regulatory developments in key production areas like Yiwu and Guangdong for potential price adjustments [3] 3. Short-term and Long-term Outlook - Short-term price improvements are anticipated, particularly in traditionally low-price cities, with potential for broader price increases in peak seasons [3][69] - The report forecasts a shift from price wars to value competition, which could enhance long-term profitability for leading express companies [3][69] - Investment recommendations include focusing on A-shares such as Shentong Express, YTO Express, and Yunda Express, as well as H-shares like Jitu Express and ZTO Express [3] 4. Financial Performance Metrics - In Q1 2025, the net profit per ticket for major companies like Zhongtong, YTO, Yunda, and Shentong fell close to or below historical lows [50] - The report highlights significant cash flow pressures, with some companies experiencing cash flow performance worse than the bottom of 2021 [50] - The report provides elasticity calculations indicating that price increases could significantly enhance profitability for express companies [70]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the issue of "rounding up" charges in various sectors such as express delivery, parking, and shared services, which has raised public concern regarding fairness and transparency in pricing practices [1][14]. Express Delivery Sector - Several express delivery companies have been reported to engage in unfair "rounding up" practices, where the weight of packages is inflated for charging purposes [2][4]. - For instance, YTO Express marked a 2.7 kg package as 4 kg, increasing the charge by nearly 50%, while Jitu Express charged for a 3 kg weight for a 2.1 kg package [3][4]. - A significant number of express delivery companies (about half) have been found to have similar issues in their weight charging practices [4]. - The new regulations effective from April 1, 2024, stipulate that billing weight must be in kilograms and retain at least one decimal place, making the "rounding up" practices clearly illegal [5][17]. Parking Sector - Parking fees are often charged based on a minimum time unit, leading to situations where even a slight delay results in significantly higher charges [7][10]. - For example, a consumer was charged for 45 minutes despite only using 30 minutes and 7 seconds of parking time, highlighting the unfairness in the billing system [9][11]. - The article notes that this practice is widespread and often seen as a "hidden rule" in many parking facilities [8][10]. Shared Services Sector - Similar "rounding up" practices are observed in shared services like charging stations, where consumers are charged for longer durations than they actually used [12][13]. - A case was mentioned where a consumer was charged for 30 minutes of charging despite only using 5 minutes, which was deemed unreasonable [13][19]. - The article emphasizes that such practices infringe upon consumers' rights to fair transactions as outlined in consumer protection laws [18][20]. Regulatory Response - The National Postal Administration has taken notice of the express delivery sector's "rounding up" practices and has initiated investigations, urging companies to comply with national standards for weight billing [17]. - The article calls for similar scrutiny and reform in the parking and shared services sectors to ensure fair pricing practices [23].