Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the logistics industry, specifically for express delivery companies [5]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is undergoing a "de-involution" process, leading to price recovery and a shift from chaotic price wars to service quality competition. This trend is expected to continue into 2026, with regulatory support from the State Post Bureau [1][3]. - The "de-involution" policies have been integrated into the annual key tasks of the State Post Bureau, emphasizing the need for compliance and social security contributions for couriers, which will further strengthen the industry's pricing power [3][16]. - The market share is increasingly concentrating among leading express companies, with their management capabilities and network strengths becoming more pronounced, potentially leading to simultaneous increases in market share and profits [3][16]. Summary by Sections 2025 Review - The express delivery market experienced a "first suppressed then rising" trend in 2025, with intensified price competition in the first half. A turning point occurred in July when the State Post Bureau called for stronger industry regulation, marking the start of the "de-involution" process [9][10]. - By November 2025, 22 provinces had raised express delivery prices, indicating a nationwide price recovery trend [9][10]. 2026 Outlook - The "de-involution" policies are expected to deepen in 2026, with a focus on regulatory enforcement and the protection of courier rights. This will create a more favorable competitive environment for compliant leading companies [16][20]. - The report highlights that the leading express companies are likely to experience a "double hit" in terms of market share and profit growth due to their competitive advantages [3][16]. Early 2026 Industry Performance - In the first two months of 2026, the express delivery volume grew approximately 5.2% year-on-year, surpassing the growth rates of late 2025. This growth is attributed to the ongoing effects of the "de-involution" policies [3][26]. - Leading companies like YTO and Shentong have shown significant year-on-year growth in delivery volume, indicating their strengthened competitive position [31]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading express companies such as Zhongtong Express, YTO Express, and Shentong Express, as they are expected to benefit from the ongoing "de-involution" and regulatory support [3][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the logistics industry, specifically for express delivery companies [5]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is undergoing a "de-involution" process, leading to price recovery and a shift from chaotic price wars to service quality competition. This trend is expected to continue into 2026, with regulatory support from the State Post Bureau [1][3]. - The "de-involution" policies have been integrated into the annual key tasks of the State Post Bureau, emphasizing the need for compliance and social security contributions for couriers, which will further strengthen the industry's pricing power [1][3]. - The market share is increasingly concentrating among leading express companies, with their management capabilities and network strengths becoming more pronounced, potentially leading to simultaneous increases in market share and profits [1][3]. Summary by Sections 2025 Review: Initial Decline Followed by Recovery - The express delivery market in 2025 experienced a trend of "initial decline followed by recovery," with intensified price competition in the first half of the year. A turning point occurred in July when regulatory measures against "involution" were introduced, leading to a nationwide price increase across 22 provinces by November [9][10]. 2026 Outlook: Continued De-involution and Market Share Differentiation - The "de-involution" trend is expected to deepen in 2026, with regulatory frameworks being established to ensure compliance and protect courier rights. This will create a more favorable competitive environment for compliant leading companies [16][17]. - The report highlights that the leading express companies are positioned for a "double hit" in terms of market share and profit growth due to their competitive advantages [16][41]. Early 2026 Industry Growth and Market Share Dynamics - In the first two months of 2026, the express delivery volume grew approximately 5.2% year-on-year, surpassing the growth rates of late 2025. The leading companies continued to show differentiated performance, with significant year-on-year growth in volume for companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express [26][31]. - The report indicates that the pricing for express services remains stable, with leading companies maintaining their market positions and profitability [31].

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 中通快遞（開曼）有限公司（於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的有限責任公司） 呈交日期： 2026年3月11日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 A | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) 02057 | 說明 A類普通股 | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | 事件 | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | 佔有關事件前的現有已發 | 庫存股份變動 | 每股發行/出售價 (註4) ...

Summary of the Conference Call on China Express Delivery Sector Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Express Delivery Sector**, highlighting recent pricing movements and regulatory measures in key regions such as **Guangdong province** and **Yiwu city** [2][6]. Core Insights - **Optimism in the Sector**: Analysts have become more optimistic about the express delivery sector due to a favorable pricing backdrop. Companies like **ZTO** are favored for their disciplined pricing strategies, which are expected to enhance market share and profitability [4][6]. - **J&T Growth Potential**: **J&T** is also favored due to its promising growth in **Southeast Asia** and improved earnings outlook in **China** [4]. Pricing Controls and Market Dynamics - **Regulatory Measures**: Guangdong has implemented an "anti-involution cooling-off period" until the end of May, maintaining strict pricing controls, including customer acquisition practices and price floor requirements [6]. - **Price Comparisons**: The price gap between top and bottom brands is minimal, with current floor prices in Eastern Guangdong at **Rmb1.55** for ZTO, **Rmb1.51** for YTO, and **Rmb1.46** for others. Prices in Yiwu range from **Rmb1.41 to 1.50** per parcel [6]. - **Franchisee Profit Recovery**: Franchisees have seen a recovery in per parcel profit to around **Rmb0.05**, with prices increasing by **Rmb0.4-0.5** since late July last year [6]. Risks and Valuation - **Volume Growth Sensitivity**: The growth of the express delivery industry is highly sensitive to e-commerce and economic growth. A significant slowdown could negatively impact sector valuations [7][8]. - **Downside Risks**: Major risks include intensified price competition, increased fuel prices, and labor rates. For ZTO, a decline in average price per parcel and lower-than-expected cost savings from fleet management are also concerns [8][9]. - **Upside Risks**: Potential upside includes accelerated e-commerce development and decreases in transportation and labor costs [10]. Company Ratings and Price Targets - **ZTO Express**: Rated as "Buy" with a price target of **US$22.41** as of March 5, 2026 [22]. - **J&T Global Express**: Also rated as "Buy" with a price target of **HK$9.85** as of March 6, 2026 [22]. Additional Considerations - **Social Insurance Payments**: There is no specific timeline for mandatory social insurance payments for couriers, which could add an extra cost of **Rmb0.01-0.03** per parcel if implemented [6]. - **Shift in Franchisee KPIs**: Franchisees are shifting their key performance indicators from volume to service quality, indicating a strategic change in operational focus [6].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the industry Core Views - The express delivery sector is positively influenced by regulatory measures against "involution" competition, with a focus on stabilizing prices and improving service quality, which is expected to enhance profitability for leading companies like Zhongtong Express and Jitu Express [2] - The logistics sector is recommended to focus on smart logistics, with companies like Haichen Co., Ltd. being highlighted due to the anticipated recovery in chemical logistics driven by rising chemical product prices [3] - The aviation sector shows signs of recovery with increased flight volumes and potential for improved profitability as supply constraints ease, recommending investments in major airlines such as Air China and China Southern Airlines [4] - The shipping sector is experiencing high freight rates due to geopolitical tensions affecting oil transport routes, with a focus on maintaining high rates despite fluctuations in container shipping indices [5] - The road and rail sectors are showing stable growth, with opportunities for investment in highway operators due to attractive dividend yields compared to government bond rates [6] Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index fell by 0.7% last week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index decreased by 1.1%, indicating a slight outperformance of the transportation sector [1][13] Industry Fundamentals Tracking Shipping Ports - The shipping market is facing challenges due to geopolitical tensions, with the CCFI index at 1044.57 points, down 4.0% week-on-week and down 20.8% year-on-year [21] - Oil transport indices are high, with the BDTI index at 2868.4 points, up 51.4% week-on-week and up 225.4% year-on-year, indicating strong demand and pricing power in oil shipping [40] Aviation Airports - The average daily flights increased by 17.86% year-on-year, with domestic flights up 19.64%, suggesting a recovery in air travel demand [4] - Brent crude oil prices rose to $92.69 per barrel, impacting operational costs for airlines, but potential easing of geopolitical tensions may improve margins [67] Road and Rail - The highway sector showed a significant increase in truck traffic, with 32.72 million vehicles recorded, up 229.68% week-on-week, indicating robust demand [84] - Rail freight volumes are stabilizing, with a slight increase in passenger turnover, suggesting a positive trend in rail transport [82] Express Logistics - The express delivery sector saw a collection volume of approximately 4.231 billion packages, up 12.6% year-on-year, indicating strong growth potential [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the shipping industry, particularly highlighting companies such as China Merchants Energy, COSCO Shipping Energy, and ST Songfa as key recommendations [3][5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the theoretical upper limit for tanker freight rates is influenced by geopolitical risks and supply chain disruptions, with current freight rates reflecting a premium due to risk assessments rather than actual transaction prices [5]. - The report notes a significant increase in VLCC average freight rates, which rose by 89% week-on-week, reaching $390,970 per day, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [5]. - The report highlights the resilience of the railway and highway freight volumes, with a notable increase in national railway freight volume by 9.77% and highway truck traffic by 229.69% [5]. Summary by Sections Shipping - The report indicates that the theoretical freight rate for oil tankers is approximately $93 per barrel, translating to a TCE of about $3.66 million per day, while the lower limit for shipowners is estimated between $40 to $87.5 per barrel [5]. - The report observes that the average freight rate for VLCCs has surged, particularly on the Middle East to China route, which jumped 108% to $480,557 per day [5]. Dry Bulk - The report states that the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has limited direct impacts on the dry bulk market, although high fuel prices are exerting pressure on TCE [5]. - The BDI recorded a decrease of 6.1% week-on-week, with Capesize rates dropping by 13.9% to $23,858 per day [5]. Air Transport - The report highlights that the global aircraft manufacturing chain is facing unprecedented challenges, with an aging fleet and supply constraints expected to continue [5]. - It suggests that airlines are poised for significant profit improvements as demand for international travel increases [5]. Express Delivery - The report anticipates that policies ensuring end-user rights will stabilize delivery fees, allowing for gradual recovery in pricing and profitability for leading companies in the sector [5]. - Companies such as ZTO Express and YTO Express are noted for their expanding market positions and profitability potential [5]. Rail and Road - The report indicates that freight volumes in both rail and highway sectors are showing resilience, with significant increases reported in recent weeks [5]. - It suggests that traditional high-dividend investment themes and potential market management catalysts are worth monitoring in the highway sector [5].

| 3. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | 其他類別 (請註明) | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 否 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | N/A | 說明 | 未指定 | | | | 2. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | B | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | N/A | 說明 | B類普通股 | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 1,000,000,000 USD | | 0.0001 USD | | 100,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | USD | | | | 1. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [9] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the continuation of anti-involution regulations, which are expected to enhance the growth certainty of leading companies in the logistics sector. The focus is on improving compliance levels and optimizing algorithms within courier companies to balance interests among headquarters, franchisees, and couriers [2][4] - The report highlights that the adjustment of delivery fees in provinces like Sichuan aims to secure the income levels of frontline workers, while regulatory measures in grain-producing areas like Guangdong and Yiwu help maintain stable prices. The pressure from social security compliance provides cost support for courier prices, limiting the risk of price declines [2][4] - The advancement of e-commerce value-added tax is accelerating the industry's process of eliminating inefficiencies, with low-efficiency practices like fake orders rapidly declining. This environment favors leading courier companies such as Zhongtong, Yuantong, and Shentong, which are expected to see increases in market share, profitability, and valuation [5] Summary by Sections Regulatory Environment - The report indicates that the national postal work meeting in 2026 will focus on comprehensive rectification of "involution-style" competition, marking a shift from "end correction" to "system reconstruction" in industry regulation [4] - The report notes that the anti-involution regulations are becoming a consensus in the industry, with a strong emphasis on compliance transformation for courier companies [4] Market Dynamics - The report states that the courier business volume growth rate has improved, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 6.4% as of March 1, 2026. The volume of postal courier collected during the Spring Festival period increased by 13.2% year-on-year [7] - The air freight market is showing resilience, with air freight price indices reflecting strong demand during the off-peak season, particularly for high-tech products [7] Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading courier companies such as Zhongtong, Yuantong, and Shentong, which are expected to benefit from the favorable regulatory environment and market dynamics [5]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the express delivery industry, focusing on major players such as Zhongtong, Yuantong, Shentong, Yunda, and Jitu. The market dynamics, pricing strategies, and competitive landscape are key themes throughout the conversation. Key Points and Arguments Pricing Strategies - The pricing for express delivery services has remained stable, with a reference price of 12.55 for 100 grams and 15 for standard services, indicating no significant changes compared to previous years [2][4][10]. - There is a slight increase of about 0.05 in actual prices, but overall market prices have not fluctuated significantly [2][4]. - The price differences among major companies have narrowed, with the gap between Zhongtong and Yuantong being approximately 0.04, indicating a more competitive pricing environment [5][11]. Market Dynamics - The market share of major players has seen fluctuations, with Zhongtong and Yuantong experiencing a decline in market share, while Shentong and Yunda have gained ground [11][12]. - The overall market volume has decreased by approximately 6 to 8 million packages, particularly in regions like Guangxi and Zhejiang, but there has been a recovery in volume post-festival periods [19][20]. - The express delivery market is expected to stabilize during the off-peak season from March to May, with no drastic price changes anticipated [26][30]. Service Quality and Competition - Service quality is a critical factor influencing pricing and market share. Companies with better service reputations, such as Zhongtong and Yuantong, maintain higher prices, while those with lower service quality face pressure to reduce prices [7][9][14]. - The narrowing price gap suggests that lower-tier companies are improving their service quality, which is contributing to a more balanced competitive landscape [7][14]. Regulatory Environment - There are indications of regulatory pressures affecting pricing strategies, particularly in regions like Yiwu, where local authorities resist price increases to support local businesses [31][32]. - The industry is experiencing a shift towards maintaining stable pricing to avoid penalties from headquarters for not meeting service standards [27][28]. Future Outlook - The industry anticipates a positive outlook for profitability, with expectations of improved margins as companies adapt to market conditions and enhance service quality [39][41]. - There is a consensus that while market share may fluctuate, the overall profitability for leading companies is expected to remain strong, driven by operational efficiencies and strategic pricing [39][41]. Additional Important Insights - The conversation highlights the importance of maintaining a balance between competitive pricing and service quality, as companies navigate the complexities of market demands and regulatory frameworks [9][14][37]. - The potential for further price adjustments exists, particularly if service quality disparities between leading and trailing companies persist [16][36]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the express delivery industry's current state and future prospects.

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints On February 25, affected by the tax period and month - end factors, the capital market showed a tight balance, the bond market fluctuated and adjusted, the main indices of the convertible bond market showed mixed performance, individual convertible bonds were evenly split between gains and losses, yields of US Treasury bonds across various maturities generally increased, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies showed divergent trends [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - President Xi Jinping met with German Chancellor Merz, emphasizing the importance of Sino - German relations [3] - The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar rose 93 basis points, and the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed 177 basis points higher [3] - Shanghai issued the "Seven Measures for the Property Market", further reducing housing purchase restrictions [4] - Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Paul Chan announced the 2026/27 budget, stating Hong Kong's plans to cooperate with the mainland on financial development [4] 3.1.2 International News - The US Trade Representative said the "global import tariff" rate on some countries might rise from 10% to 15% or higher [5] 3.1.3 Commodities - WTI April crude oil futures fell 0.32%, Brent April crude oil futures rose 0.11%, spot gold rose 0.52%, and a technical glitch at CME interrupted natural gas and metal futures trading [6] 3.2 Capital Market 3.2.1 Open - Market Operations On February 25, the central bank conducted 409.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 9.5 billion yuan after 400 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [8] 3.2.2 Capital Interest Rates Affected by the tax period and month - end factors, the capital market was in a tight balance. DR001 rose 1.66bp to 1.384%, and DR007 rose 4.79bp to 1.507%. Other interest rates also showed various changes [9][10] 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Rate Bonds - Due to the stock market rise and rumors about Shanghai's real estate, the bond market fluctuated and adjusted. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250022 rose 1.40bp, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250220 rose 1.35bp [12] - Multiple bonds were issued, with details such as issue scale, winning bid yield, and multiples provided [13] 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - Five industrial bonds had a trading price deviation of over 10%, with some falling and one rising significantly [13] - Multiple credit - related events occurred, such as debt transfer, extension of consent solicitation period, and being listed as a dishonest被执行人 [16] 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - The A - share market rose, and the convertible bond market fluctuated narrowly. The CSI Convertible Bond Index and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose, while the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index fell slightly. Individual convertible bonds were evenly split between gains and losses [17] - Some convertible bonds had significant price changes, and there were events such as new listings, proposed downward adjustment of the conversion price, and early redemption announcements [21] 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - In the US bond market, except for the 5 - year Treasury bond yield remaining unchanged, yields of other maturities generally rose. The yield spreads of some maturities narrowed, and the break - even inflation rate of 10 - year TIPS rose [22][23][24] - In the European bond market, the yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies showed divergent trends [25] - The daily price changes of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds were provided, with some rising and some falling [27]