Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057, ZTO.US), highlighting a positive outlook based on the company's financial performance and market positioning [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 5.3% year-on-year and 30.2% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The net profit per ticket rose by 6.7 cents to 0.26 yuan, driven by various factors including pricing strategies and cost management [1] - The average revenue per ticket increased by 3.6 cents, while transportation and sorting costs rose by 1.6 cents, contributing to a marginal increase in gross profit per ticket [1] Industry Dynamics - The industry is undergoing a strategic shift towards a dual focus on quality and quantity, favoring companies with scale advantages, high service quality, operational efficiency, and competitive costs [1] - ZTO Express is expected to benefit from its strong cost control, service capabilities, and high profitability, positioning it well to capture more market share [1] Future Outlook - By 2026, the express delivery sector may experience a return to differentiated growth, with ZTO Express poised to leverage its operational advantages [1] - The company anticipates a simultaneous release of volume and profit, projecting a net profit growth rate of 10% to 15% year-on-year for 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057, ZTO.US), highlighting a positive outlook for the company's financial performance in the upcoming quarters [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 5.3% year-on-year and 30.2% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The net profit per ticket rose by 6.7 cents to 0.26 yuan, driven by a combination of factors including price adjustments and cost management [1] - The increase in express delivery revenue per ticket was 3.6 cents quarter-on-quarter, while transportation and sorting costs per ticket increased by 1.6 cents [1] - Other costs per ticket rose by 1 cent, leading to a gross profit increase of 1 cent per ticket [1] - The effective tax rate per ticket decreased by 4 cents due to tax rebates, and fair value changes increased by 1 cent, contributing to the net profit increase [1] Industry Outlook - The industry is undergoing a strategic shift towards a dual focus on quality and quantity, favoring companies with scale advantages, high service quality, operational efficiency, and competitive costs [1] - ZTO Express is expected to benefit from its strong cost control, service capabilities, and high profitability, positioning it well to capture more market share [1] - By 2026, the express delivery sector may experience a return to differentiated growth, with ZTO's advantages likely to become more pronounced [1] - The company anticipates a simultaneous release of volume and profit, projecting a net profit growth rate of 10% to 15% year-on-year for 2026 [1]

Core Insights - The Chinese express delivery industry has achieved a remarkable milestone, reaching a monthly average of 10 billion packages, significantly contributing to the global express delivery market [2][3]. Industry Overview - In 2024, China's express delivery volume is projected to reach 175.08 billion packages, accounting for 65% of the global total of approximately 267.9 billion packages, with a year-on-year growth of 21.5% [2]. - The revenue from express delivery services in China is expected to hit 1.40335 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.8% [2]. - As of October 11, 2025, the total express delivery volume has already surpassed 150 billion packages, 37 days ahead of the previous year [2]. Growth Drivers - The growth of the express delivery industry is driven by three main factors: 1. The booming e-commerce ecosystem, with new business models such as live-streaming sales and community group buying expanding consumption from urban to rural areas [3]. 2. The extensive coverage of logistics infrastructure, with over 95% of administrative villages in China having express delivery services, particularly in central and western regions [3]. 3. Technological advancements leading to efficiency improvements, including automated sorting centers and smart delivery solutions, which have reduced costs per package [4]. Competitive Landscape - Major players in the Chinese express delivery market include SF Express, ZTO Express, YTO Express, and Yunda Express, each excelling in various segments such as e-commerce and business express services [4]. - In the high-end express market, SF Express and EMS have maintained leadership due to their established market presence and quality service [5]. Consumer Trends - There is a growing demand for diverse express delivery services, with consumers seeking not only speed but also quality. Companies are encouraged to enhance service quality, including packaging and customer service, to meet these evolving consumer expectations [6].

Core Insights - The article discusses the critical importance of cold chain logistics for preserving the freshness of sensitive goods like fresh produce and pharmaceuticals, emphasizing the dual challenges of time and temperature control [2][3] - It highlights the competitive landscape for cold chain logistics, particularly focusing on Zhongtong's recent strategic moves to enhance its cold chain capabilities amid operational challenges and market competition [3][7] Group 1: Zhongtong's Cold Chain Strategy - Zhongtong has announced the launch of cold chain air express services and strategic partnerships to improve its logistics capabilities, marking a significant step in its cold chain market strategy [3][7] - The company faces significant challenges due to recent controversies involving false logistics information and operational inefficiencies, which have led to its removal from the Douyin platform [4][5][6] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Zhongtong's cold chain logistics operations include over 1,200 cold chain logistics points, 37 distribution centers, and more than 2,200 cold chain vehicles, but it still lags behind competitors like JD Logistics and SF Express in terms of infrastructure and service capabilities [9][10] - JD Logistics has established a comprehensive cold chain service platform with extensive warehouse and transportation networks, while SF Express benefits from a strong brand reputation and efficient logistics operations [10][12] Group 3: Market Outlook - The global cold chain logistics market is projected to grow from $248.38 billion in 2020 to $335.33 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.98%, driven primarily by the Asia-Pacific region [14]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongtong Express's core express business revenue in Q3 accelerated growth by 12% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations by 2%, benefiting from industry anti-involution [1] - Adjusted net profit margin remains above market expectations, excluding one-time tax refunds [1] - The expectation of sustained industry anti-involution will benefit Zhongtong Express, reflected in increased market share and high-quality profit growth visibility [1] Financial Performance - Q3 core express business revenue growth of 12% year-on-year [1] - Adjusted net profit margin exceeds market expectations [1] Market Outlook - Industry anti-involution is expected to continue for a certain period, with Zhongtong Express as a major beneficiary [1] - Increased market share and visibility of high-quality profit growth anticipated [1] Stock Recommendations - Target price for US stocks raised from $21 to $25 [1] - Hong Kong stock target price maintained at HKD 193 [1] - "Buy" rating maintained [1]

中金发表报告指，中通快递第三季单票利润按季转涨，非通用准则净利润25.06亿元，按年增5%、按季 增22%，好于该行预期，主因行业"反内卷"提价带动公司利润修复。该行分别调高中通快递今明两年盈 利预测6%及2%至95.47亿与105.01亿元，上调美股目标价9%至25美元，维持"跑赢行业"评级。 ...

小摩发布研报称，中通快递-W将在未来3至6个月继续成为运输行业中的首选股。小摩引述中通快递管 理层最新评论指，反内卷政策正从根本上重塑竞争格局，推动整个行业从以量取胜的增长模式，转向更 关注质量与盈利能力。小摩认为，中通快递正明显受惠于当前行业发展，除了持续扩大市场占有率，亦 展现出稳健的利润表现。 消息面上，11月25日，中通快递-W发布2025"双11"战报。今年"双11"期间(10月20日至11月21日)，中通 在各平台考核指标综合排名第一，其中中通在逆向单量、上门及时率等细分服务环节均实现领跑。在派 送环节，中通通过数据驱动和末端协同，做好上门服务与按需派送，揽签达成率整体提升0.76%。 在"双11"业务量方面，中通快递继续保持领先优势，连续十年"双11"业务量领跑。与此同时，中通在农 村市场的表现尤为亮眼，农村快递上行件量同比增长19.5%。 中通快递-W(02057)再涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.12%，报161.9港元，成交额6238.66万港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - ZTO Express (02057.HK) has seen a stock price increase of over 4%, currently trading at 161.9 HKD with a transaction volume of 62.3866 million HKD [1] Group 1 - ZTO Express's stock price rose by 4.12% [1] - The current trading price is 161.9 HKD [1] - The total transaction volume reached 62.3866 million HKD [1]

来源：新浪港股 摩根大通发布研报称，中通快递-W（02057）将在未来3至6个月继续成为运输行业中的首选股，将公司 H股目标价由187港元上调至197港元，给予"增持"评级。该行又将中通快递（ZTO.US）美股目标价由 24美元调升至25美元，评级同样为"增持"。 小摩引述中通快递管理层最新评论指，反内卷政策正从根本上重塑竞争格局，推动整个行业从以量取胜 的增长模式，转向更关注质量与盈利能力。小摩认为，中通快递正明显受惠于当前行业发展，除了持续 扩大市场占有率，亦展现出稳健的利润表现。 11月25日，中通快递-W发布2025"双11"战报。今年"双11"期间（10月20日至11月21日），中通在各平台 考核指标综合排名第一，其中中通在逆向单量、上门及时率等细分服务环节均实现领跑。在派送环节， 中通通过数据驱动和末端协同，做好上门服务与按需派送，揽签达成率整体提升0.76%。在"双11"业务 量方面，中通快递继续保持领先优势，连续十年"双11"业务量领跑。与此同时，中通在农村市场的表现 尤为亮眼，农村快递上行件量同比增长19.5%。 中通快递-W（02057）盘中涨超4%，截至发稿，股价上涨3.41%，现报16 ...

Core Viewpoint - ZTO Express (02057) has shown strong performance during the "Double 11" shopping festival, maintaining its leading position in the logistics industry, with a focus on quality and profitability rather than just volume growth [1] Group 1: Company Performance - ZTO Express's stock price increased by 4.12%, reaching HKD 161.9, with a trading volume of HKD 62.39 million [1] - During the "Double 11" period (October 20 to November 21), ZTO ranked first in comprehensive assessment metrics across various platforms, excelling in reverse order volume and timely pickup rates [1] - The overall signing and delivery rate improved by 0.76% due to data-driven strategies and end-to-end collaboration in the delivery process [1] Group 2: Market Trends - ZTO Express has maintained its leading position in "Double 11" business volume for ten consecutive years, with a notable 19.5% year-on-year increase in rural express delivery volume [1] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that ZTO Express is expected to remain a preferred stock in the transportation sector over the next 3 to 6 months, benefiting from the current industry developments [1] - The management of ZTO Express highlighted that anti-involution policies are fundamentally reshaping the competitive landscape, shifting the industry focus from volume-driven growth to quality and profitability [1]