浙商证券（601878）发布研报称，25Q3公司快递量完成95.7亿件，同比+9.8%，市场份额为19.4%。散 件业务量增长势头依然强劲，同比增幅近50%，持续为利润带来积极贡献。基于全年预测数据及根据目 前的市场和运营情况，公司对年度指引作出调整，2025年的包裹量预计将介于382亿至387亿件之间，同 比增长12.3%至13.8%。核心单票方面，25Q3单票调整后净利润0.26元，24Q3为0.27元；环比25Q2提升 0.05元。国庆节后第二轮涨价开启，行业旺季到来，涨价具备一定持续性，对快递价格形成支撑。 消息面上，近日，中通快递-W发布2025年三季度业绩，里昂指出，中通快递-W第三季收入及经调整净 利润分别同比增长11%及7%，每单经调整净利润为约0.27元人民币，较第二季的0.21元人民币改善，看 好其核心每单成本因新转运中心投产仅上升0.02元人民币。里昂表示，行业反内卷政策预期将持续实 施，相信监管机构会继续透过设定价格下限，来严格遏止价格恶性竞争。考虑到中通客户结构较同业 好，里昂预期该公司明年市场份额可回升，将2025及2026年净利润预测轻微上调2%。 中通快递-W(02057)张超 ...

每经AI快讯，中通快递-W(02057.HK)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.92%，报13.62港元，成交额1542.11万港 元。 ...

Group 1 - ZTO Express reported a 11% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 7% increase in adjusted net profit for Q3 2025, with adjusted net profit per order at approximately 0.27 RMB, improving from 0.21 RMB in Q2 [1] - The company’s core per order cost increased by only 0.02 RMB due to the launch of a new transit center, indicating operational efficiency [1] - The expectation of continued implementation of anti-competition policies in the industry is likely to support ZTO's market share recovery in 2026, leading to a slight upward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 2% [1] Group 2 - In Q3 2025, ZTO Express completed 9.57 billion parcels, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.8%, with a market share of 19.4% [2] - The growth momentum in the piece business remains strong, with a nearly 50% year-on-year increase, contributing positively to profits [2] - The company adjusted its annual guidance, forecasting parcel volume for 2025 to be between 38.2 billion and 38.7 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.3% to 13.8% [2]

浙商证券发布研报称，25Q3公司快递量完成95.7亿件，同比+9.8%，市场份额为19.4%。散件业务量增 长势头依然强劲，同比增幅近50%，持续为利润带来积极贡献。基于全年预测数据及根据目前的市场和 运营情况，公司对年度指引作出调整，2025年的包裹量预计将介于382亿至387亿件之间，同比增长 12.3%至13.8%。核心单票方面，25Q3单票调整后净利润0.26元，24Q3为0.27元；环比25Q2提升0.05 元。国庆节后第二轮涨价开启，行业旺季到来，涨价具备一定持续性，对快递价格形成支撑。 消息面上，近日，中通快递-W发布2025年三季度业绩，里昂指出，中通快递-W第三季收入及经调整净 利润分别同比增长11%及7%，每单经调整净利润为约0.27元人民币，较第二季的0.21元人民币改善，看 好其核心每单成本因新转运中心投产仅上升0.02元人民币。里昂表示，行业反内卷政策预期将持续实 施，相信监管机构会继续透过设定价格下限，来严格遏止价格恶性竞争。考虑到中通客户结构较同业 好，里昂预期该公司明年市场份额可回升，将2025及2026年净利润预测轻微上调2%。 智通财经APP获悉，中通快递-W(02057) ...

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.44%, the S&P 500 up 1.55%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 2.69% [1] - Large-cap tech stocks saw significant gains, with Tesla and Google both rising over 6% [1] Sector Highlights - Semiconductor stocks performed strongly, with Broadcom's stock increasing by 11%, marking its largest gain since April, adding $178 billion to its market capitalization [1] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 4.6%, with Micron Technology up nearly 8%, AMD up over 5%, and Nvidia up over 2% [1] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by 2.82%, with notable gains in popular Chinese concept stocks [1] - Key performers included WeRide up 14.72%, Pony.ai up 12.51%, and Canadian Solar up 10.16% [1] - Other significant increases were seen in Daqo New Energy up 8.89%, Global Data up 8.38%, Baidu up 7.44%, and Bilibili up 6.80% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q3 2025 performance, showing a revenue increase but a decline in adjusted net profit, indicating mixed operational results amidst a competitive market environment [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 34.588 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, while the adjusted net profit was 6.818 billion yuan, down 8.1% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company generated a revenue of 11.865 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.1% year-on-year growth, with an adjusted net profit of 2.506 billion yuan, up 5.0% [1]. Operational Metrics - In Q3 2025, the company handled a total of 9.573 billion express packages, marking a 9.8% year-on-year increase, with a strong growth trend in scattered package business, which grew nearly 50% year-on-year [1]. - The company's market share in Q3 was approximately 19.4%, a slight decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year and 0.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, maintaining the leading position in the industry [1]. Pricing and Cost Structure - The average revenue per package in Q3 2025 was 1.15 yuan, up 2.3% year-on-year and 3.2% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to industry price improvements driven by "anti-involution" measures [2]. - The cost per package in Q3 2025 was approximately 0.59 yuan, down 8.5% year-on-year, with line-haul transportation costs at 0.34 yuan (down 12.7%) and sorting costs remaining stable at 0.25 yuan [2]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The adjusted net profit per package in Q3 2025 was 0.262 yuan, down 4.3% year-on-year but up 25.6% quarter-on-quarter, indicating improved profitability trends [2]. - The operating cash flow per package was 0.335 yuan, down 6.0% year-on-year, reflecting challenges in cash generation [2]. Growth Outlook - The company revised its full-year package volume growth target to 12.3% to 13.8%, down from a previous forecast of 14% to 18%, emphasizing a focus on quality and market share expansion [2]. - The company aims for sustainable growth while maintaining healthy profitability amidst evolving market dynamics [2]. Industry Trends - The express delivery industry is expected to evolve towards healthier competition due to ongoing "anti-involution" efforts, with growth potential remaining strong, particularly in the context of e-commerce expansion [3]. - The shift from quantity to quality in service delivery is anticipated to reshape the competitive landscape, with a focus on improving operational efficiency and customer satisfaction [3]. Profit Forecast - The adjusted net profit projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 9.870 billion yuan, 11.273 billion yuan, and 12.526 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decline in 2025 followed by growth in subsequent years [3].

Investors interested in Transportation - Services stocks are likely familiar with ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) and TFI International Inc. (TFII) . But which of these two stocks presents investors with the better value opportunity right now? Let's take a closer look.There are plenty of strategies for discovering value stocks, but we have found that pairing a strong Zacks Rank with an impressive grade in the Value category of our Style Scores system produces the best returns. The Zacks Rank favors stocks w ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of ZTO Express to "Buy" [6] Core Views - In Q3 2025, ZTO Express achieved a revenue of RMB 11.86 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 2.51 billion, reflecting a 5.0% increase year-on-year [1][2] - The growth in express delivery revenue was driven by a 9.8% increase in package volume and a 1.7% increase in average price per package [1] - The company anticipates a total package volume for 2025 to be between 38.2 billion and 38.7 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.3% to 13.8% [2] Summary by Sections Q3 2025 Performance - Adjusted net profit increased by 5.0% year-on-year to RMB 2.51 billion, with a revenue of RMB 11.86 billion [1] - The express delivery business generated RMB 11.02 billion in revenue, up 11.6% year-on-year, supported by a 9.8% increase in package volume [1][2] Operational Data - The company completed 9.57 billion express deliveries in Q3 2025, a 9.8% increase year-on-year, capturing a market share of 19.4% [2] - The number of collection and delivery points exceeded 31,000, with approximately 10,000 owned vehicles [2] Revenue and Cost Analysis - The core revenue per package was RMB 1.22, an increase of RMB 0.02 year-on-year, with cost efficiencies leading to a reduction in sorting and transportation costs [3] - The adjusted net profit per package was RMB 0.26, slightly down from RMB 0.27 in Q3 2024, but improved by RMB 0.05 from Q2 2025 [3] Profit Forecast - ZTO Express is expected to focus on network stability and competitive advantages, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at RMB 9.62 billion, RMB 11.02 billion, and RMB 12.08 billion respectively [4]

首次覆盖: 同建共享，行稳致远 中通快递-W(2057) 中通快递首次覆盖报告 [Table_Industry] 运输 海 外 公 司 ( 中 国 香 港 ) 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 本报告导读： 中通快递的"同建共享"理念为加盟商网络的稳定打下了坚实的基础。稳健的盈利能 力及高效的成本管控水平，将助力公司巩固行业龙头地位。 投资要点： | 财务摘要百万人民币 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 38419 | 44281 | 47107 | 51685 | 57706 | | +/-% | 9% | 15% | 6% | 10% | 12% | | 毛利润 | 11663 | 13717 | 13571 | 14952 | 16692 | | 归母净利润 | 8749 | 8817 | 9565 | 10633 | 11929 | | +/-% | 28% | 1% | 8% | 11% | 12% | | PE | 14.96 | ...

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - Crude oil freight rates are rising while ocean freight rates are declining. The China Import Crude Oil Comprehensive Index (CTFI) reached 2325.40 points on November 20, up 4.2% from November 13. VLCC market activity remains strong, but overall market activity is expected to decline without actual cargo support [3][14] - Changlong Airlines has initiated its IPO process, and VOLANT has signed a confirmation order for the VE25-100 eVTOL aircraft with a state-owned investment group, with the order amount exceeding 100 million yuan [3][16] - The China-Europe Railway Express has surpassed 3500 trips this year, marking a historical high. A new "passenger-cargo-mail integration" model has been launched in cooperation between Rizhao Public Transport and SF Express [3][22] Summary by Sections Industry Hot Events - Crude oil freight rates are high while ocean freight rates are declining. The Shanghai port export price to Europe was $1367/TEU, down 3.5%, and to the US West and East Coast was $1645/FEU and $2384/FEU, down 9.8% and 8.3% respectively [3][15] - Changlong Airlines is preparing for its IPO, with a focus on expanding its operational capacity and market reach [3][16] - The China-Europe Railway Express has achieved a record of over 3500 trips this year, with a focus on high-value goods transportation [3][23] High-Frequency Data Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has increased both month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in air freight pricing [4][28] - Domestic express delivery volume increased by 7.90% year-on-year in October 2025, with total express delivery volume reaching 176 billion pieces [4][50] - The national highway freight truck traffic increased by 2.57% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in road logistics [4][18] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [5] - Attention to the low-altitude economy sector, with recommendations for CITIC Offshore Helicopter [5] - Investment opportunities in the road and rail sectors, recommending companies such as Gansu Expressway and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [5]