April 13, 2025 05:00 PM GMT The Fintech Radar | Europe Assessing Recession Risks This week we recap Wise's India expansion, our analysis of large cap US payments defensiveness, latest M&A and fundraises, and more … M&A / Fundraises: #1 nettle raises £1.45m in pre-seed round: This week (8th April), London-based nettle raised £1.45m in pre-seed funding. The funding round was led by Project A with participation from top angel investors. The capital raised will be put towards further platform development and sc ...

April 16, 2025 04:09 AM GMT Microsoft | North America 3Q25 Preview – Pushing Through the Chop | What's Changed | | | | --- | --- | --- | | Microsoft (MSFT.O) | From | To | | Price Target | $530.00 | $472.00 | Investor sentiment remains negative as a 'wall of worry' around macro and micro demand impacts dominates the conversation and negative revisions loom on the horizon. Even post our proactive cuts to our estimates, the valuation looks attractive at 25X GAAP CY26 EPS, for a long-term GenAI winner. Key Tak ...

April 13, 2025 11:01 PM GMT Technology – Software & Services | Europe Weekly Reboot – 1Q CIO survey reveals market caution European ad agencies: 1Q25 previews: We don't see 1Q results as a catalyst for the ad agencies. We think market expectations for cautious management tone into the rest of the year is priced in. Havas N.V.: Solid start to 2025: 1Q25 organic growth represents a ~3ppts sequential acceleration vs 4Q24 (at -0.8%). It beat MS expectations for 0.8% org. growth. Our coverage was down c. 270bps ...

Global Fixed Income Bulletin Tariffs, Tariffs, Tariffs: Waiting (Anxiously) for Clarity MACRO INSIGHT | BROAD MARKETS FIXED INCOME TEAM | April 2025 As this is a monthly bulletin, we will reflect on the events of March but also discuss the market movements that transpired in the first few days of April, particularly following President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day." March proved to be a challenging month for fixed-income investors, as global yields increased broadly and risk assets sold off. Developed mar ...

April 15, 2025 04:49 AM GMT 中国思考 | Asia Pacific 中国如何对冲关税冲击 高企的关税，预计短期难降。经济面临实质性下行压力。市 场高度关注中国的政策应对，及人民币的汇率走向。我们对 此探讨分析。 要点 关税愈演愈烈，政策如何应对：中美关税ⶍ级ⱶ大了长期贸易脱钩的风险。在宣 布对ⶕⱶ征125%的对等关税之⺵，特朗普总统表明不打算通过进一步提高关税来 推ⲁ谈⮮。但考虑⮽美国关税背⺵的战略考量在于促进⯆造业回流，中国增ⱶ自 美进也有难度，短期内局ⲡ缓和的空间有限。市场关注点转⺸中国的政策应 对。 决策层暂不会出台增量刺激：我们认为，政策框架仍然是⹛应式的，增量⯌激的 规模和时点将⬀于（1）经济表现和民生⹛馈；（2）现有政策的成效；（3） 在90天的暂缓期结束之⺵，美国是⻖会恢复对其他国家的对等关税（这将拖累中 国的绕道和全球贸易），以⹖（4）中美开⻪谈⮮并降低关税的⺎能性。鉴于 两会⮠⮠⺐了2万亿人民币的广义财政扩张，以⹖关税未来的走ⲡ依然扑朔迷 离，我们认为⬀策层二季度的重心在于ⱶ速已有政策落地，而增量政策的时间窗 或在下ⶐ年。 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：sh ...

April 14, 2025 05:59 AM GMT China Economics | Asia Pacific Exports Could Slip Below 5%Y in April Key Takeaways Source: China Customs, Morgan Stanley Research Surging exports – not really a surprise… The surprising headline is in line with our view last month that export YoY growth would rebound visibly in Mar, because the soft Jan-Feb reading reflects residual Lunar New Year (LNY) seasonality and the associated drag on labor-intensive exports. Indeed, labor-intensive segments rebounded sharply in Mar on a b ...

April 14, 2025 10:08 AM GMT Morgan Stanley Research Global Morgan Stanley Global Macro Forum US-China Tariffs – Impact on the Consumer and Implications for Markets April 14, 2025 Vishwanath Tirupattur – Chief Fixed Income Strategist | Strategist Arunima Sinha – Global Economist James Egan – US Housing Strategist & Co-Head of Securitized Products Research | Strategist Jenna Giannelli – Head of Retail & Consumer Credit | Credit Analyst Simeon Gutman – Hardlines, Broadlines, & Food Retail Industries Analyst | ...

Investment Rating - The report lowers the 2025 GDP growth forecast for China by 30 basis points to 4.2% [1][12] Core Insights - The anticipated additional stimulus of Rmb1-1.5 trillion in the second half of 2025 is expected to partially offset the negative impact of US-China tariffs, which are projected to gradually unwind [1][12] - The report predicts a significant deceleration in quarterly growth from 5.4% YoY in 4Q24 to 3.7% YoY in 4Q25, indicating a 170 basis points slowdown despite policy offsets [12][13] Summary by Sections Economic Impact - The report estimates a 90 basis points growth shock due to tariffs, which will be partially countered by a 60 basis points boost from the additional stimulus [12][13] - The most significant impact on GDP is expected in 2Q, with a projected YoY decline of 0.7 percentage points to 4.4% [12][13] Stimulus Measures - Policymakers are likely to front-load the Rmb2 trillion stimulus package announced at the National People's Congress (NPC) in 2Q, with additional measures expected in the second half of 2025 [14] - Potential measures include modest monetary easing, local construction bond issuance, and targeted support for consumption and infrastructure [14] Tariff Adjustments - The report assumes that the US will lower the weighted average tariff hike on China to 34% by year-end, with significant cuts expected in the next 1-2 months [12][13] - The effective tariff hike is projected to decrease from current levels, which will help mitigate supply shocks and facilitate trade negotiations [3][12] Currency Outlook - The year-end USDCNY target is maintained at 7.5, with a front-loaded depreciation expected to 7.4 by the end of 2Q [15] - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) is anticipated to manage RMB depreciation carefully to avoid disorderly capital outflows [15]

April 13, 2025 08:29 PM GMT China Economics | Asia Pacific TSF Beat on Front-loaded Public Financing Key Takeaways March credit beat a reflection of economic green shoots before major tariff hits: Credit YoY will likely rise further in Q2 on continued fiscal front-loading...In response to increased growth downside risks amid prohibitive US tariffs, Beijing will likely accelerate the issuance and deployment of the announced govt. bond quota for the year in Q2, before introducing a supplementary budget in 2H. ...

April 13, 2025 08:38 PM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific M Foundation What Stimulus Can We Expect? Related reports: What Stimulus Can We Expect? (11 April 2025) For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Robin Xing Chief China Economist Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6511 Jenny Zheng, CFA Economist Jenny.L.Zheng@morganstanley.com +852 3963-4015 M Large Growth Drag from US Tariffs Downside risk to our 2025 GDP for ...