Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the stablecoin industry or specific companies involved in it. Core Insights - The rollout of the Stablecoin Bill in Hong Kong is seen as a significant advancement in the region's digital finance landscape, with the HKMA beginning to accept license applications from August 2025 [4] - USDC is considered a more relevant reference for Hong Kong's stablecoins compared to USDT, which is unregulated [4] - The stablecoin ecosystem is rapidly evolving, with USDT holding approximately 70% of the market balance and USDC around 20% [8] - Stablecoins are expected to play a larger role in global payments, potentially replacing credit card systems within five years due to lower costs and faster processing [8] Summary by Sections Regulatory Developments - The HK Stablecoin Bill was passed on May 21 and will be enacted on August 1, 2025, with the HKMA releasing consultation documents on AML/CFT requirements and supervision of licensed stablecoin issuers [4] - The US Genius Act mandates that stablecoins must be one-to-one backed and properly audited, affecting USDC but not USDT [8] Market Dynamics - USDT's reserve assets include treasuries and commercial paper but lack transparency, raising concerns about its backing [8] - USDC ensures one-to-one backing with reserves held under bank custodianship, sharing interest earnings with Coinbase [8] Implications for Financial Institutions - There may be a decrease in payment and credit card revenues for banks, but they could engage in the stablecoin ecosystem as custodians or issuers [4] - Among listed HK banks, STAN is noted for its involvement in digital asset development and participation in the stablecoin sandbox [4] Future Outlook - Stablecoins are projected to become a $3.7 trillion market by 2030, with significant implications for global trade and retail applications [8] - Key questions remain regarding the reserve assets for HK's stablecoin, its retail use cases, and its role in enhancing Hong Kong's status as an international financial center [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Attractive [6]. Core Insights - The 2025 National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) and Commercial Insurance Drug List negotiations are set to begin, with eligibility criteria similar to previous years, including new drugs approved before June 30, 2025, and rare disease drugs [2][3]. - The role of commercial insurance in China's healthcare system is currently limited, accounting for only 7.7% of total spending on innovative drugs and devices in 2024, indicating significant potential for growth [4][8]. - The NHSA is expected to lead the formulation of the first national-level Commercial Insurance Drug List, with negotiations possibly starting in August-September 2025 [3][8]. Summary by Sections NRDL and Commercial Insurance Drug List - The NRDL negotiations may be advanced to August-September 2025 to accommodate the release of the Commercial Insurance List, anticipated in late 2025 [3]. - Eligible drugs for the Commercial Insurance List include new drugs approved from January 1, 2020, to June 30, 2025, and rare disease drugs [2]. Role of Commercial Insurance - Commercial insurance represented only 7.7% of total spending on innovative drugs and devices in China as of 2024, which is less than 5% of total healthcare expenditures [4][10]. - Strengthening the role of commercial insurers through national policy initiatives is expected to alleviate funding constraints and benefit innovative biopharma and medtech players [4]. Spending Insights - In 2024, out-of-pocket expenses accounted for RMB 78.6 billion (48%), commercial insurance for RMB 12.4 billion (8%), and basic government-funded health insurance for RMB 71 billion (44%) of the total spending on innovative drugs and devices [10].

Investment Rating - The report recommends an overweight position in US equities, suggesting they remain attractive compared to the rest of the world [9]. Core Insights - There is a narrative questioning whether foreign investors are fleeing US assets, driven by uncertainties in trade and tariff policies. However, data indicates that while foreign investors have slowed their pace of buying US stocks, they have not significantly reallocated away from them [2][4]. - US risky and risk-free assets are viewed as attractive, with a recommendation for an equal-weight position in global equities while overweighting US equities due to better earnings revision breadth in the US compared to other regions [9]. - The report highlights persistent weakness in the US dollar over the next 12 months, driven by a convergence of US rates and growth to peers, alongside elevated policy uncertainty [10]. Summary by Sections - **Investment Flows**: International investors have been net buyers of US equities post-Liberation Day, but the buying pace has slowed compared to 2024, although it remains higher than in 2021-2023. US investors, in contrast, have been net sellers, reallocating away from US equities [3][4]. - **Bond Funds**: Net inflows to US bond funds have been positive but slower than the previous year. Foreign investors have remained net buyers of US bonds, indicating no significant outflows from US bonds [5][8]. - **Regional Allocation**: The weight of US equities in global equity funds has decreased, reflecting a market correction rather than net outflows. This change aligns with the overall market cap of US equities shrinking as a share of the global equity benchmark index [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to TSMC with a price target of NT$1,275.0 by December 2025 [2][28]. Core Insights - TSMC is expected to maintain strong structural growth drivers due to its near-monopoly position in AI accelerators and edge AI, supported by a robust process roadmap and industry-leading packaging technology [28]. - The report anticipates a significant ramp-up in TSMC's wafer-level multichip module (WMCM) capacity, particularly for high-end iPhone models, which could lead to substantial revenue growth [5][11]. - CoWoS (Chips-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) capacity is projected to remain tight through the second half of 2025 but is expected to reach a more balanced situation by the second half of 2026 [3][4]. Summary by Sections CoWoS Capacity and Demand - TSMC's CoWoS capacity is expected to grow significantly, reaching 102,000 wafers per month (wfpm) by the end of 2027, with a growth rate of 138% in 2025 [3]. - NVIDIA's CoWoS demand is projected to grow by 25% in 2026, reaching 538,000 units, driven by the migration to the Rubin platform [4][9]. - Overall CoWoS consumption is forecasted to increase from 679,000 wafers in 2025 to 1,132,000 wafers in 2027, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32% [9]. WMCM Capacity and Adoption - WMCM capacity is expected to reach 27,000 wfpm by the end of 2026 and ramp up to 40,000 wfpm by the end of 2027, driven by Apple’s adoption in high-end iPhone models [5][11]. - If all iPhones were to migrate to WMCM long-term, this would require approximately 90,000 wfpm of WMCM capacity, indicating a significant expansion plan [5]. Customer Demand and Projections - Broadcom is expected to see steady growth in CoWoS consumption, particularly for Google TPUs, while new customers like Meta are anticipated to ramp up in 2026 [4]. - AMD's CoWoS forecasts remain muted for 2025 and 2026, with potential growth expected in the MI450 series in late 2026 and beyond [4]. - The report highlights that the CoWoS ecosystem is maturing, with more non-AI processors beginning to adopt CoWoS packaging, indicating broader market adoption [4]. Future Outlook - TSMC's structural growth is expected to be supported by price hikes on leading-edge nodes and a strong ramp-up of N2 technology in 2026 [28]. - The report suggests that TSMC will likely raise its FY25 USD revenue guidance, alleviating concerns regarding gross margin impacts from overseas expansion and currency fluctuations [28].

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha June 29, 2025 08:22 PM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific Asia Summer School: Future of Energy & Powering AI The Future of Energy & Powering AI: Energy markets are diffusing. Structural themes and challenges will drive a paradigm shift and require a coexistence of oil, gas, renewables and coal energy markets. | M | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha | | | | | | Foundation | | June 29, 2025 08:22 PM GMT | | | | Investor Presentation Asia Pacific | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive sentiment towards the outlook for both DRAM and HBM, with a positioning score of 8 out of 10, indicating a strong long position [4]. Core Insights - Investor sentiment has shifted positively due to favorable DDR pricing data and growing optimism around HBM, particularly as Samsung faces challenges. MU is reportedly experiencing strong new customer engagements in HBM, with rush orders from various clients [4]. - The report highlights that MU has successfully brought HBM 3E 12-Hi to market ahead of schedule, showcasing its competitive strengths. Datacenter demand remains robust, and consumer shipments and ASPs are improving [4]. - There are concerns regarding high street expectations, with survey results indicating that these expectations are already priced in. The stock is currently trading at 2.6 times book value, but continued improvements in guidance are expected to support share prices [4]. - Discussions are ongoing about the potential guidance for C26 HBM, with speculation that overwhelming demand may lead to ongoing negotiations rather than a straightforward guide [4]. - The report notes that the rise of HBM may necessitate a reevaluation of valuation metrics, suggesting a shift from P/B to P/E or SOTP [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - MU's revenue guidance for F3Q25 is $8.80 billion with a gross margin of 36.50%, while the street consensus is slightly higher at $8.84 billion and 36.70% gross margin. The survey mean suggests even more optimistic figures of $9.05 billion and 37.46% gross margin [3]. Market Trends - The report indicates a strong demand in the datacenter sector and improving consumer trends, which are expected to positively impact revenue and earnings forecasts for MU [4][10]. Competitive Landscape - MU's advancements in HBM technology and strong customer engagement position it favorably against competitors, particularly in light of Samsung's reported struggles [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for Semiconductor Production Equipment is Attractive [2]. Core Insights - The semiconductor production equipment market is expected to experience strong growth driven by demand for advanced packaging materials and AI-related technologies [12][34]. - Major companies like Microsoft and NVIDIA are significantly increasing their capital expenditures, which will positively impact the semiconductor equipment sector [8][21]. - The demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and advanced packaging technologies is projected to rise, creating opportunities for companies like Advantest and Disco [34][12]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The semiconductor production equipment market is anticipated to grow despite a slow recovery in the overall semiconductor market, with advanced packaging applications expected to outpace other segments [12][34]. - The WFE (Wafer Fabrication Equipment) market is projected to see low-single digit negative growth in 2025 [16]. Company Ratings - Advantest (6857.T) is rated Overweight with a target price based on a P/E of 14.0x [49]. - Disco (6146.T) is rated Overweight with a target P/E of 25.1x [46]. - SCREEN Holdings (7735.T) is rated Overweight with a target P/E of 11.9x [54]. - Tokyo Electron (8035.T) is rated Equal-weight [113]. Demand Drivers - The increasing need for AI servers and advanced packaging materials is driving demand for semiconductor production equipment [8][12]. - Companies are expected to ramp up capital expenditures directed at HBM4 and advanced packaging technologies starting from the second half of 2025 [8][12]. Geopolitical Factors - The US-China trade tensions and export restrictions are influencing the semiconductor equipment market, particularly affecting sales to China [20][22]. - Domestic production of AI chips in China is expected to increase capital intensity, benefiting companies like Advantest and Tokyo Seimitsu [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Long" position on 3-year Chinese Government Bonds (CGB) in anticipation of dovish policy tailwinds from the People's Bank of China (PBoC) [2][28]. Core Insights - Chinese corporates are lagging in de-dollarization efforts, with a notable increase in net USD selling by exporters in May, but this was primarily due to reduced outright USD buying rather than increased selling [3][11]. - The PBoC's fixing strategy has shown a more measured pace in the recent decline of CNY FX compared to previous sharp DXY weakness, indicating a preference for FX stability [4][20]. - Structural demand for foreign assets by Chinese investors is driven by a search for yield amid a domestic shortage of investable assets, leading to a shift in interest towards less liquid bonds [28][30]. Summary by Sections Current Trade Recommendations - Long 3-year CGB (FX-hedged) initiated on March 7, 2025, with a current yield of 1.39% and a profit of +14 basis points [2]. CNY FX and De-dollarization - The recent decline in CNY FX aligns with the PBoC's fixing strategy, but the pace has been more controlled compared to past episodes of DXY weakness [3][4]. - Chinese corporates sold approximately $17 billion in USD in May, a significant increase from $6 billion in April, but still below seasonal expectations [11][7]. - The net FX settlement ratio showed only a marginal improvement, indicating a lack of urgency among corporates to convert USD [11][13]. FX Swaps and Liquidity - Corporates have increasingly utilized FX swaps to access CNY funding without losing the USD carry, reflecting a strategic shift in managing currency exposure [11][16]. - Onshore USD liquidity has become excessively flush, with interbank USD rates falling, making CNY financing via FX swaps more expensive than direct borrowing [11][19]. Market Conditions and PBoC Actions - Proactive liquidity injections from the PBoC have alleviated funding concerns for banks, supporting a favorable environment for front-end CGBs [28][30]. - The PBoC has reiterated its commitment to enhancing monetary policy support and maintaining ample liquidity, which is expected to continue influencing market conditions positively [28][30].

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research 27 June 2025 Semiconductors 2025 CIO Survey: Results Suggest Sustained Strong AI Spending Intentions And Supports Our View Of 30-35% Revenue CAGR For AI/Accelerated Compute Semis Over Next Several Years J.P. Morgan's recent CIO Survey (see presentation published this morning here) asked 168 CIOs, who manage ~$123B of annual enterprise IT spending power, their company-specific intentions over the next several years. Key questions asked that were relevant for semi ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates CATL-H with an Overweight (OW) rating and a price target (PT) of HK$400, indicating a 25% upside from the previous close. CATL-A is upgraded to OW with a PT of Rmb370 from Not Rated [2][6]. Core Insights - The Chinese EV battery supply chain stocks have rebounded by 8-17% since April, driven by CATL-H's strong performance post-listing and ongoing investment interest in solid-state batteries [2]. - Industry capacity utilization rates have improved, with key players achieving over 80% utilization in the second half of 2024, leading to a new capital expenditure (capex) cycle [5][10]. - Battery prices have stabilized after significant declines, with some players in the energy storage system (ESS) segment experiencing price recovery due to strong demand [5][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Capacity Utilization - The report notes a recovery in industry capacity utilization rates, with improvements seen in 2024, particularly in the second half, driven by better-than-expected demand for EVs and ESS [10][12]. - A significant increase in new orders for battery equipment is anticipated in 2025, with top suppliers expecting over a 45% increase compared to 2024 [5][12]. Battery Prices and Market Dynamics - Battery prices for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) have decreased by 40-60% from their peak in late 2022/early 2023, but have stabilized in 2024 despite a further 20% drop in lithium carbonate prices [5][10]. - Select ESS battery manufacturers have seen a small price recovery, attributed to robust domestic and international demand [5]. Financial Performance and Projections - CATL's shipments for EV and ESS batteries are projected to reach 475 GWh in 2024, up from 390 GWh in 2023, with a strong performance expected in the second half of 2024 [31]. - The report provides a detailed comparison of battery makers' financial results, highlighting CATL's gross profit margin (GPM) improvements and net profit per unit stability [35][40]. Market Share and Competitive Landscape - CATL continues to dominate the Chinese EV battery market, with a significant share in both domestic and overseas markets, while competition remains intense among local players [7][38]. - The report discusses the implications of Chinese OEMs shortening payment terms to suppliers, expressing skepticism about its impact on material suppliers' cash flow [5].