Global Economic Research 09 April 2025 J P M O R G A N Daily Economic Briefing Just the end of the beginning Economic and Policy Research Nora Szentivanyi (44-20) 7134-7544 nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Maia G Crook (1-212) 622-8435 maia.crook@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Bennett Parrish (1-212) 622-9003 bennett.parrish@jpmchase.com JPMorgan Chase Bank NA Joseph Lupton (1-212) 834-5735 joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Chase Bank NA See page 10 for analyst certifica ...

North America Economic Research 09 April 2025 Liberation Day mulligan After the financial carnage of Liberation Day, today the president partially climbed Economic and Policy Research down from last week's tariff announcement. While the 10% across-the-board tariff will remain, the scheduled increase in country-specific tariffs has been paused for 90 days for those countries that haven't retaliated. Notably, though, for China, which has retaliated, tariffs will now go to 125%. In static terms, today's moves ...

| | Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC James E Faucette Equity Analyst James.Faucette@morganstanley.com Antonio Jaramillo Research Associate Antonio.Jaramillo@morganstanley.com Michael N Infante Equity Analyst Michael.Infante@morganstanley.com Meryl R Thomas, CFA | Foundation +1 212 296-5771 +1 212 761-4438 +1 212 761-4631 | | --- | --- | --- | | | Research Associate Meryl.Thomas@morganstanley.com Shefali Tamaskar Research Associate Shefali.Tamaskar@morganstanley.com | +1 212 761-0774 +1 212 761-4948 | | M April 8, 2 ...

April 10, 2025 12:56 AM GMT NVIDIA Corp. | North America What do we know so far? Concerns have receded but it's still important to understand the impact of tariffs. We (and many of our companies) are still working to fully understand the implementation of the recent tariffs. The 10% tariff is still in effect, and could still climb higher in 90 days. While semis are exempt from the reciprocal tariffs, the challenges imposed by tariffs are still daunting, as there will be taxes at the systems level that impac ...

April 8, 2025 06:01 AM GMT US Tech | North America 1Q25 CIO Survey – Changing the Directionality of Budget Growth Expectations M Bifurcated survey results suggest macro volatility weighing on CIO's near-term IT spending growth expectations, while confidence in core Secular growth drivers (AI/ML) and medium- term IT spending drivers remains intact. Importantly, AI reaffirms positioning among the 'Most Defensible' budget areas. Segmented Results Reflect Bifurcation in Near-Term Indicators; Durability in Mediu ...

April 7, 2025 09:00 PM GMT Asia Technology | Asia Pacific M Idea AI supply chain: Introducing Our Pre-2026 CoWoS Forecast How TSMC decides to allocate its CoWoS capacity in 2026 will be a key catalyst for the global AI supply chain – but that is also tied to tariffs' impact on AI capex demand – both require tracking closely. We expect TSMC to bake in some conservatism for 2026 CoWoS capacity expansion: Around mid-May, TSMC shall make an early decision about its 2026 CoWoS capacity after receiving key custom ...

April 7, 2025 04:19 AM GMT US Equity Strategy | North America M Idea Weekly Warm-up: After the Fall Last Friday showed some signs of capitulation as the Nasdaq reached bear market territory and safety stocks and gold sold off. With recession risks rising and no sign of a Fed or Trump put, investors are left to figure out when to step in. Today, we offer our thoughts. Key Takeaways | Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC | | | --- | --- | | Michael J Wilson | | | Equity Strategist | | | M.Wilson@morganstanley.com | +1 21 ...

April 7, 2025 12:32 AM GMT Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific Implications of US Reciprocal Tariffs - Who Has the Bargaining Power? No tech hardware companies are immune from US reciprocal tariffs, which likely lead to higher operational costs and end demand slowdown. Amid mounting uncertainty, we expect OEM customers to renegotiate order terms with hardware supply chains and believe those with bargaining power are better off. Key Takeaways Near-term - who absorbs the tariff increase? We have ...

April 6, 2025 09:00 PM GMT China Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific Positions of Active Long-only Managers in China/HK Chinese equities saw a moderate US$0.5bn inflow from foreign LOs in March, slowing down from February. The inflow was driven by passive funds at US$2.5bn inflow, while active funds continued outflow at US$2.0bn. Southbound momentum remained strong with 3M25 inflow reaching 56% of the 2024 level. Foreign domiciled funds flow: Chinese domestic funds flow: Continued below. | M April 6, 2025 09:00 ...

April 6, 2025 08:34 PM GMT Greater China Semiconductors | Asia Pacific Evaluating tariff impact – any safe harbor? Reciprocal tariffs should have a negative impact on our covered companies with exposure to US consumer tech. Chinese smartphone (e.g. MediaTek) and semi localization plays could be safe harbors. For TSMC, the Intel JV question needs to be answered on April 17 to remove the overhang. Preliminary assessment of tariff impact on semis: The high reciprocal tariffs were unexpected. For impact on glob ...