Investment Rating - The long-term industry view for semiconductors is rated as Attractive, with a bullish outlook despite mixed signals for 2026 [3][9]. Core Insights - The supply chain for semiconductors lacks long-term visibility, particularly in AI, although there is optimism for the upcoming year [1][3]. - NVIDIA is identified as a top pick in the semiconductor sector, driven by strong demand for its Blackwell form factors and easing supply bottlenecks [3][10]. - There is skepticism regarding the performance of the semiconductor market in 2026, primarily due to concerns about excess inventory resulting from chip production ahead of supply bottlenecks [3][4]. Summary by Sections AI Market - NVIDIA shows strong near-term performance in AI, but there is uncertainty about the longer-term outlook, particularly in China where demand for certain products is minimal [4][5]. - Chinese hyperscalers are facing challenges post-export controls, with technology at the H20 performance level being competitive but lower performance levels lacking appeal [5][10]. Memory Market - The PC market is described as sluggish, impacting the memory sector, with expectations of weaker follow-through in Q4 after a strong Q3 [9][11]. - DRAM and NAND markets are expected to perform well in the near term, but there is skepticism about sustainability due to weaker volumes in PCs and smartphones [13][14]. Equipment and Foundry - China is anticipated to see stronger equipment spending in the second half of the year, driven by logic customers and state subsidies [16][17]. - KLA is highlighted as a key winner in the equipment sector, benefiting from GAA technology and expanding its market share [17][18]. General Market Conditions - There is limited visibility in broader markets beyond modest near-term pull-forwards, with inventory build being a concern amid tariff uncertainties [19][20]. - The transition to 800V data center architecture faces significant challenges, with skepticism about its near-term implementation [20].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies covered. Core Insights - The timing of tariff impacts on the economy will depend on the actual application of tariffs and the outcomes of ongoing negotiations [4] - Trade negotiations typically take years rather than months, indicating that any near-term outcomes may be limited to framework agreements or narrow deals [8] - The interaction between country-specific tariffs and sector-based tariffs remains uncertain, with upcoming deadlines in July and August expected to provide clarity [9][11] Summary by Sections Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - A series of tariff deadlines are approaching, with significant negotiations involving the US, Japan, India, Mexico, and Canada in July, followed by China in August [9] - Historical experiences suggest that trade negotiations can span several years, with the UK-US trade agreement serving as a reference point for future deals [12][22] - The report anticipates that the administration may seek to extend the July 9 deadline, citing progress in trade discussions [11] Economic Implications - Opinion polling indicates that voters do not currently perceive a negative impact from tariffs, which may reduce political risks associated with tariff escalations [13] - The economic effects of tariffs have not yet manifested in hard data, with delays expected in the transmission of price changes due to tariffs [30][31] - The report highlights that the effective tariff rate is expected to stabilize around mid-teens percentages, with ongoing legal challenges and negotiations influencing final levels [11][33] Sector and Country Tariffs - The report discusses the complexity of how country and sector tariffs will interact, particularly in the context of the USMCA and ongoing bilateral negotiations [15][16] - The categorization of trade with Canada and Mexico will significantly affect tariff levels, with a mix of Most Favored Nation (MFN) and USMCA compliance currently in place [20] - The transition from country to sector tariffs is a key focus, with implications for supply chains and revenue generation from tariffs [21][34]

Key takeaways from our recent client conversations around the world. June 30, 2025 04:01 AM GMT Global Economic Briefing | North America M Idea The Weekly Worldview: The Hardest Questions: From Beijing to Berlin M A good friend of mine likes to say that the main reason that he forecasts is to find out why he was wrong. Our view of a meaningful deceleration in the US and the global economy from tariffs and other policies has yet to play out. We find ourselves waiting. So, while we wait, we take stock of the ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on U.S. Treasuries (USTs) and a bearish stance on the U.S. Dollar (USD) [1] Core Insights - Tariffs are significant, with U.S. government revenue from tariffs annualizing over 1% of U.S. GDP, indicating that they do not represent a zero-sum game [1] - U.S. importers paid tariffs equivalent to 65% of corporate income taxes in 2024, and these tariffs represented 15% of non-financial corporate profits after tax in Q1 2025 [10][11] - If corporations absorbed all tariff expenses, profit margins would have fallen to 11.7% from 13.8%, below the 15-year moving average of 12.2% [10][26] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - U.S. importers' tariff payments in June annualized to $327 billion, or 1.1% of Q1 2025 nominal GDP [12][16] - The analysis suggests that tariffs act as a significant tax burden on corporations, impacting profit margins and overall economic growth [11][29] Corporate Profit Margins - In Q1 2025, non-financial corporations reported $2.127 trillion in profit after tax, with profit margins sitting at 13.8% [22] - The report highlights that if tariffs were fully absorbed, profit margins would drop significantly, indicating potential economic stress [26][34] Economic Outlook - The report suggests that the economic backdrop is skewed to the downside, with airline passenger traffic slowing and potential impacts from tariffs expected to manifest in inflation data [30] - The recommendation is to stay long U.S. Treasuries and short the USD, reflecting a cautious economic outlook [1][30]

Investment Rating - Industry view is rated as "In-Line" [6] - Specific company view is rated as "Attractive" [15] Core Insights - Demand for Temu continues to decline, with household purchases at a record low and purchase expectations trailing competitors [2][4] - The removal of the de minimis exemption and high China tariff rates have significantly impacted engagement with Temu [2] - Dollar Stores are expected to benefit from Temu's market share loss, with a hypothetical 30% decline in US sales potentially representing ~$5 billion in market share being transferred to Dollar Stores and other retailers [2] - Temu's US GMV is projected to compound over the next several years, reaching approximately $39 billion by 2030, with profitability expected in 2025 [2] Summary by Sections Consumer Survey Data - Approximately 18% of respondents reported shopping on Temu in the past three months, marking a record low since the survey began in September 2023 [4][9] - Net purchase frequency expectations for Temu are at -25% in June 2025, the lowest among tracked retailers [12] - Web traffic and visitor trends for Temu have shown a significant drop, with traffic down 81% and visitors down 78% compared to March [16] App Performance - Temu app downloads and monthly active users (MAUs) have continued to decline, with downloads down 85% year-over-year and MAUs at approximately 49% of peak levels [17][20] Competitive Landscape - Shopper overlap ratios for Dollar Stores have declined, indicating that Temu's competitive threat is waning [21] - BURL and TJX have seen increases in customer overlap with Temu, while ROST has experienced a decline, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [24][27]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for June increased by 0.2 percentage points month-on-month to 49.7, slightly surpassing consensus expectations of 49.6, driven by strong fiscal front-loading [7] - Export momentum is weakening, with the new export order index rising only 0.2 percentage points month-on-month, remaining significantly below pre-tariff levels, indicating a potential end to strong US-bound shipping [3][4] - Real GDP growth is expected to decline from 5% year-on-year in Q2 to 4.5% in Q3 due to fading export front-loading and muted stimulus measures anticipated from the government [4][7] Summary by Sections Manufacturing Sector - The June manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7, supported by stronger new orders and production, particularly in consumer goods and base materials [2][7] - The construction PMI also saw a notable increase of 1.8 percentage points month-on-month to 52.8, reflecting ongoing fiscal support for infrastructure spending [2] Export Dynamics - The new export orders index showed a slight increase but remains low compared to historical levels, suggesting a slowdown in export activities [3][4] - Container throughput has weakened, indicating a broader decline in export volumes to various destinations [3] Economic Outlook - The report anticipates a decrease in real GDP growth to 4.5% year-on-year in Q3, influenced by the diminishing impact of export front-loading and a lack of significant new fiscal stimulus [4][7] - A modest supplementary fiscal stimulus of Rmb0.5-1 trillion is expected to be introduced by the government in late Q3 or early Q4 if economic data continues to show weakness [4]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a solid investment outlook for the China economy, with expectations of a supplementary budget of Rmb0.5-1 trillion in response to weaker data in the coming months [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a robust performance in Q2 2025, but notes a softening momentum, suggesting that a fall stimulus is likely to be implemented [2][3]. - Structural reforms are deemed essential for sustained economic reflation, with a focus on social welfare reform, debt restructuring, and improving fiscal governance [3]. - Retail sales have remained strong, particularly in the auto and home appliance sectors, although there are concerns about subdued sales in other consumer goods categories [5][7]. - Exports are expected to slow further, despite a rebound in US-bound shipping, indicating potential challenges in international trade [10][12]. - The housing market is experiencing a downturn, with secondary home sales weakening and local government financing pressures increasing [15][20]. Summary by Sections Economic Performance - Q2 2025 data shows solid economic performance, but momentum is softening, leading to expectations of a fall stimulus [2][3]. - Retail sales in June were strong, driven by front-loaded demand in the auto and home appliance sectors [5]. Policy Outlook - The report anticipates a supplementary budget of Rmb0.5-1 trillion to address weaker economic data in the upcoming months [3]. - Structural reforms are necessary for sustained reflation, focusing on social welfare, debt restructuring, and fiscal governance [3]. Trade and Exports - Exports are likely to slow further, with June showing a decline despite a rebound in US-bound shipping [10][12]. - Container throughput at major ports has slipped sharply, indicating challenges in trade logistics [11]. Housing Market - The housing market is under pressure, with secondary home sales weakening and local government financing facing challenges [15][20]. - Major tax revenues and land sales have underperformed, contributing to fiscal pressures [20]. Construction Activity - Weak construction activities are indicated by subdued demand for rebar and cement, suggesting a slowdown in overall construction [21][23]. RMB Internationalization - The report discusses the roadmap for RMB cross-border settlement and highlights the importance of stablecoins in reinforcing dollar dominance in the near term [27][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating for several sectors including Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Healthcare, and Industrials, while underweighting (UW) Energy and Utilities [7][11]. Core Insights - The report anticipates a range-bound MXCN (70-80) in the near term with potential upside in the second half of 2025, driven by factors such as strong southbound inflows into Hong Kong and a possible resolution in US-China trade negotiations [6][22]. - The forecast for MXCN/CSI300 is projected to reach HK$80/Rmb4,150 (+5.1%/5.8% from the previous close) in the base case and HK$89/Rmb4,420 (+16.8%/12.7% from the previous close) in the upside case by the end of 2025 [6][22]. - The report highlights a shift in consumer preferences from "affordable treats" to "affordable experiences," indicating a potential investment opportunity in sectors related to learning and at-home entertainment [6][8]. Summary by Sections Key Drivers for 2H25 - The report identifies key drivers for the second half of 2025, including a rebound in GDP growth and a rise in the share of sub-sectors in Recovery and Expansion [17][20]. - The business cycle profile of China equity is noted to have troughed in 3Q24, with a significant increase in the number of sectors showing recovery [17][20]. Earnings Outlook & Sector Weights - The report predicts upside for MXCN EPS compared to consensus, while forecasting downside for CSI300/CSI500/CSI1000 EPS growth due to differing sector exposures [6][7]. - Sector weights indicate a return to an Overweight stance on IT, while maintaining Overweight on Communications Services, Discretionary, Healthcare, and Materials [6][7]. Thematic Stock Screens - The report emphasizes several themes, including the rise of high yielders favored by onshore investors and the potential for financial sector consolidation [6][11]. - Top picks for 2H25 include Tencent, Alibaba, and Innovent, among others, reflecting a focus on companies with strong growth potential and favorable market conditions [6][7][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) with an "Attractive" industry view and a price target of $185.00, indicating a potential upside from the current price of $178.53 [6]. Core Insights - OpenAI's decision to use Google Cloud's TPUs for its inference workloads is seen as a significant endorsement of GOOGL's technology infrastructure capabilities, highlighting GOOGL's leading position in the ASIC ecosystem [3][4]. - The partnership between OpenAI and GOOGL could drive further growth for Google Cloud, as rising developer familiarity with TPUs may lead to increased adoption outside of Google [4]. - The report notes that NVIDIA's capacity constraints may have influenced OpenAI's choice to utilize GOOGL's TPUs instead of NVIDIA's offerings [8][9]. Summary by Sections Partnership and Technology - OpenAI is reportedly finalizing a deal to use GOOGL's TPUs to meet its increasing inference demand and manage costs, although it will not have access to GOOGL's most powerful TPUs reserved for its own models [2][3]. - This partnership marks the first significant use of non-NVIDIA chips by OpenAI, emphasizing GOOGL's strong position in the ASIC market [3]. Market Dynamics - The report anticipates that while NVIDIA's GPUs will remain the primary choice for enterprises, the growing familiarity with TPUs could enhance GOOGL's Cloud business [4]. - Current estimates suggest that spending on NVIDIA GPUs will reach approximately $243 billion by 2027, while spending on TPUs is projected to be around $21 billion, indicating a potential market share shift for GOOGL [4]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights that OpenAI's choice to use GOOGL's TPUs over AWS's Trainium could reflect AWS's capacity constraints, which may negatively impact AWS's growth prospects [9]. - The competitive dynamics in the cloud computing space are shifting, with OpenAI now utilizing services from multiple cloud providers, excluding Amazon [9].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights three main themes to understand the Chinese economy in 2025: Pro-growth Policy, Tariff War 2.0, and Innovations and Transformation [23][25][140] - The tariff war is identified as the biggest external risk for China in 2025, with significant implications for trade and economic growth [25][32] - A shift in policy since September 2024 emphasizes boosting domestic demand as a top priority, with a focus on structural rebalancing and fiscal stimulus [105][106] - The report anticipates a modest growth target of 5% for 2024 and 2025, with inflation concerns persisting [238][239] Summary by Sections Global Macro Backdrop - The global economic outlook is influenced by various scenarios, including the impact of tariffs on trade dynamics [4][13] Tariff War 2.0 - The report discusses the escalation of tariffs, with the US average effective tariff rate on China increasing from 20% to 60% under the current administration [27] - The cumulative tariff increase on China reached 145%, with product-specific tariffs affecting key sectors such as steel, aluminum, and automobiles [27][63] - The potential for further tariff hikes and restrictions on China's investments overseas is highlighted as a significant risk [27][28] Policy Shift - The policy shift since September 2024 is characterized by a focus on structural rebalancing, fiscal stimulus, and monetary easing, with a modest fiscal expansion expected [105][106] - The report outlines specific fiscal measures, including a budget deficit target of 4% of GDP for 2025 and a focus on consumption support [106][111] Innovation and Transformation - The report emphasizes the need for innovation and transformation in the Chinese economy, particularly in the context of AI and technology development [140][231] - Policy measures to support the AI industry are outlined, including the establishment of a national AI industry fund [231][234] Economic Outlook - The economic indicators forecast a real GDP growth of 4.8% for 2025, with consumption and investment growth expected to remain subdued [238] - The report projects a merchandise trade balance improvement, with exports expected to reach $3,493 billion and imports at $2,664 billion by 2025 [238]