Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In-Line" [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the size of the China hotel industry, its growth history, penetration rates, and key players, along with an analysis of gross merchandise value (GMV) and revenue per available room (RevPAR) trends [2][8] - The report discusses the competitive landscape, focusing on the top four hotel chains in China and their market dynamics [11][40] Market Size and Growth - The total number of hotels in China has grown significantly from 11,828 in 2005 to an estimated 348,717 in 2024, with branded hotels increasing from 864 to 93,289 in the same period [13] - The annual supply growth in China has shown fluctuations, with a notable decline of 30% in 2020, followed by recovery trends in subsequent years [9] Top Players - The report identifies the top four hotel chains in China: Jin Jiang, H World, BTG, and Atour, detailing their market presence and operational metrics [40] - Jin Jiang leads with 12,348 domestic hotels and a revenue percentage from food and management (F&M) of 52% [40] GMV Analysis - The breakdown of China hotel GMV indicates that online travel agencies (OTAs) account for 27% of bookings, with Ctrip being the largest player at 15% [43] - The report emphasizes the importance of direct bookings, which constitute 18% of the total GMV [43] RevPAR Trends - RevPAR in China has shown volatility, with a significant decline observed during the pandemic, but is expected to recover as leisure demand increases [49][72] - The report notes that RevPAR for branded hotels has outperformed other segments, particularly in the midscale category post-reopening [87][91] Key Debates - The report raises critical questions regarding the future of RevPAR in the second half of 2025, the impact of supply growth on pricing, and the confidence of franchisees amid potential hotel closures [94] Valuation Framework - The valuation section provides a comparative analysis of market capitalization and earnings metrics for the top hotel chains, indicating varying levels of market performance and investor expectations [104]

June 23, 2025 12:53 PM GMT China Property | Asia Pacific M Update Weekly Database Tracker #25 Key Takeaways Asia Pacific Weekly primary unit sales in 50 cities were -10% YoY (vs. -9% YoY last week) for Industry View In-Line the week ended June 22: Tier 1 city sales were -23% YoY (vs. -8% YoY last week). Tier 2 city sales were -10% YoY (vs. -12% YoY last week). Tier 3 city sales were -1% YoY (vs. 0% YoY last week). Weekly secondary unit sales in 10 cities were -10% YoY (vs. +6% YoY last week): Tier 1 city we ...

June 23, 2025 04:01 AM GMT Global Economic Briefing | North America The Weekly Worldview: Enough uncertainty to go around The interplay of country and sector tariffs, legal considerations, and trade deals will keep the level, timing and composition of tariffs uncertain. We discuss the read across of this uncertainty for the Federal Reserve. M The topic of tariffs has come off the boil in recent weeks, but the ultimate effect of tariffs has yet to show in the data. Markets are eying July 9, as the next "dead ...

June 26, 2025 04:50 PM GMT Xiaomi Corp | Asia Pacific YU7 – Another Success Ahead Key Takeaways YU7 is highly likely to be another success, and we reiterate our OW rating and Top Pick recommendation. Xiaomi launched its second EV, the YU7, on June 26 with starting price of Rmb253.5K for the basic model, Rmb279.9K for Pro and Rmb329.9K for Max. Compared with SU7's price range of Rmb215.9k to Rmb299.9k, YU7 has a higher price and we believe it could have a positive impact on ASP and margins in 2025-26. What's ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "In-Line" investment rating to the India Consumer Staples sector [3]. Core Insights - India's Consumer Staples sector is characterized by high consumption growth, with households spending nearly 50% of their expenditure on food [16]. - The total addressable market (TAM) for India's FMCG market is estimated at approximately US$164 billion, with varying growth drivers across sub-categories [35][32]. - The sector has underperformed relative to the MSCI India index over the past three years, indicating potential challenges in stock performance [10]. Summary by Sections Consumption Landscape - India's consumption growth is among the highest globally, with significant expenditure on food [16]. - The penetration of packaged foods in India remains low compared to global peers, indicating room for growth [38]. Growth Drivers - Key growth drivers include volume growth, market share, raw material price movements, and currency fluctuations [19]. - The FMCG market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10-11% over the next five years [35]. Key Players - Major players in the sector include HUL, Nestle, Britannia, and Dabur, with varying degrees of rural revenue contribution [24][89]. - The rural market is crucial, with companies like Dabur and HUL having significant exposure [89]. Market Performance - The report highlights that rural food and beverages (F&B) have outperformed, while rural home and personal care (HPC) remains weak [27]. - The FMCG sector's revenue growth has shown fluctuations, with a notable decline in certain periods [92]. Distribution and Market Strategy - Companies are focusing on expanding their distribution reach, particularly in rural areas, to tap into the growing consumer base [62]. - The rise of e-commerce and modern trade channels is reshaping the market dynamics, with increasing revenue shares from these segments [70][72]. Financial Metrics - The report provides insights into revenue contributions and growth trends for various categories, indicating a shift towards premium products [49][50]. - The financial performance of key players shows varying gross margins and EBITDA margins, reflecting operational efficiencies and cost management strategies [103]. Future Outlook - The sector is expected to benefit from innovations and expansions into adjacent categories, with companies identifying aspirational brands for future growth [79]. - The overall sentiment in the sector remains cautiously optimistic, with macroeconomic factors and consumer sentiment playing a significant role in shaping future performance [19][40].

June 23, 2025 06:07 AM GMT Economics, Banks, Macro and Sovereign Credit Strategy | EEMEA CEE Trip Notes | From Politics to Policy | What's Changed | | | | --- | --- | --- | | PKO BP (PKO.WA) | From | To | | Price Target | PLN 80.00 | PLN 91.00 | | Top Pick Added | OTPB.BU | PKO.WA | | OTP Bank (OTPB.BU) | | | | Price Target | HUF 28,700.00 | HUF 32,400.00 | | Top Pick Removed | OTPB.BU | PKO.WA | | Pekao SA (PEO.WA) | | | | Price Target | PLN 176.00 | PLN 209.00 | | | We visited Budapest, Warsaw and Prague ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating for SF Holding Co. Ltd - A and H shares, with price targets of Rmb52.00 and HK$46.00 respectively [4][39]. Core Insights - SF Holding has shown exceptional performance in the logistics sector, with A and H shares rising 24% and 38% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the CSI300 index, which is down 2% [2][10]. - The company's growth is attributed to operational optimization, innovative pricing models, and the use of advanced technologies like AI and robotics, enhancing efficiency and profitability [2][14]. - SF's business model reveals substantial upside potential, particularly in international parcels and supply chain management, positioning it favorably against global competitors like UPS [9][11]. Summary by Sections Operational Performance - SF has achieved robust parcel volume growth, with increases of 25%, 30%, and 32% year-over-year in March, April, and May respectively [3]. - The average selling price (ASP) has declined by 12-14% year-over-year due to the introduction of lower-priced parcels, but this strategy is expected to improve overall infrastructure utilization [3][10]. Market Positioning - SF's integrated business model allows it to capture market share across both high-end and low-end segments, maintaining profitability despite competitive pressures [2][3]. - The company views tariff impacts as manageable, with minimal effects on its bottom line, and anticipates growth in its logistics routes due to increased demand for comprehensive solutions [7][10]. Valuation Analysis - SF's valuation premium is justified by its unique position in China's logistics market, trading at 18x and 15x EV/EBITDA for FY26E, compared to peers at 11.5x [10][35]. - The report suggests that SF can trade at above 8-10x EV/EBITDA, reflecting its promising growth rates and significant upside potential in international and supply chain management [10][35].

June 23, 2025 01:56 AM GMT Asia Energy | Asia Pacific Oil @ US$75+: What Are Investors Thinking? Forty-plus conversations with investors last week pointed to expectations of US$60-$65/bbl for oil and a positioning shift to fading oil strength. Integrated oils got the most attention, followed by refiners, gas midstream equities, and powering AI utilities. Selective interest in E&Ps. Key Takeaways We have previously highlighted our preference for Asia energy names in our note Asia Energy: Our Key Picks. India ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the housing market but discusses various trends and dynamics affecting housing prices and affordability globally. Core Insights - Global home price gains persist despite rising policy rates, although the pace of home price appreciation is slowing [20] - The global housing affordability crisis is deepening due to supply/demand imbalances and elevated rents [21] - The US housing market is characterized as frozen, with declining demand and homebuilder sentiment alongside high mortgage rates [23] - Shelter inflation is likely to return to pre-pandemic levels, but rising rents have compounded cost-of-living challenges [20] - Demographics and household formation support long-term demand, and any housing correction in the short term would likely be modest [20] Summary by Sections Global Housing Market Trends - Home prices have increased by 37% on average over the past decade, with significant growth recorded in countries like Iceland, Portugal, and Hungary [32] - The OECD reports that real home prices have increased by 16% relative to income [32] - The global housing affordability crisis is now a common theme, with many OECD countries facing worse issues than the US [49][56] US Housing Market Dynamics - The US housing market is experiencing a significant decline in demand, with home sales in 2024 being the lowest since 1995 [23] - Housing starts fell approximately 9.8% in May, and the issuance of building permits hit a five-year low [23] - The median sales price of existing homes rose by 1.8% despite fewer home sales [23] Affordability Challenges - Housing affordability in the US has declined almost 30% since December 2021, nearing levels last seen in the late 1980s [51] - The housing affordability index in the US plunged from about 150 in 2021 to the mid-80s by 2024 [49] - Many households are spending over 40% of their income on housing, indicating a severe affordability crisis [51] Regional Disparities - The report highlights divergent trends across the US, with densely populated urban centers facing decreases in demand while suburban and rural areas see demand increases [84] - The Sunbelt region is experiencing higher vacancies and an oversupply of luxury apartments compared to coastal markets [88] Future Outlook - Despite the current challenges, the report suggests that risks to financial stability from the housing market appear manageable [21] - The report anticipates that any housing correction in the short term would likely be modest due to ongoing demographic support for demand [20]

Investment Rating - Industry view is rated as In-Line [1] Core Insights - The Japanese government's 7th Strategic Energy Plan was released in February 2025, aiming to increase energy self-sufficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions [6][7] - Long-term electricity demand is expected to grow due to the construction of new AI data centers [6] - The government plans to increase the share of electricity generated from renewable and nuclear sources [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Japanese Government's 7th Strategic Energy Plan - Energy self-sufficiency rate is projected to rise from 15.2% in F3/24 to approximately 30-40% by F3/41 [7] - Electricity output is expected to increase from 985.4 billion kWh in F3/24 to approximately 1.1-1.2 trillion kWh by F3/41 [7] - Final energy consumption is forecasted to decrease from 300 million kiloliters in F3/24 to approximately 260-270 million kiloliters by F3/41 [7] - Greenhouse gas emissions are targeted to be reduced by 73% compared to F3/14 by F3/41 [7] Outlook on Energy Supply and Demand - The share of renewables in the energy mix is expected to increase from 22.9% in F3/24 to approximately 40-50% by F3/41 [9] - Nuclear energy's share is projected to rise from 8.5% in F3/24 to around 20% by F3/41 [9] - Thermal energy's share is expected to decrease from 68.6% in F3/24 to approximately 30-40% by F3/41 [9] Projected Electricity Demand - The demand from new data centers is projected to rise significantly, with peak electricity demand expected to increase from 0.5 GW in F3/26 to 6.2 GW by F3/34 [24][28] Power Generation by Energy Source - Total power generation in F3/24 was 987.7 TWh, with coal contributing 280.0 TWh, natural gas 324.8 TWh, and nuclear power 84.1 TWh [29] - Renewable energy generation was 226.1 TWh, with solar power at 96.5 TWh and wind power at 10.5 TWh [29] Status of Nuclear Power Plants - As of March 2025, 33 nuclear plants have a total capacity of 33,083 MW, with 13,245 MW already restarted [31] Renewable Energy Introduction - Cumulative installed capacity for solar power reached 75,129 MW, while wind power reached 16,802 MW as of the end of December 2024 [32]